Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[David M]

I reckon this is the 2nd greatest bear trap since $2.

I'm buying 10BTC at $350 flat.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I reckon this is the 2nd greatest bear trap since $2.

I'm buying 10BTC at $350 flat.

God speed, brother

[bitebits]

As of September 10, there were only ~650'000 addresses in the blockchain with at least 0.1 BTC (~50 USD).  Assming that a bitcoin user must have at least one address with 0.1 BTC in it, that its an upper bound to the number of bitcoiners.

There may be bitcoiners who have their coins scattered into many addresses, all with less than 0.1 BTC.  Or bitcoiners who happened to be out of bitcoins on that date, but had more bitcoins at other times.  On the other hand, there must be many bitcoiners who own several addresses with more than 0.1 BTC.  Threfore, "650'000 bitcoiners" is more likely to be too high than too low.

That is a really interesting statistic. How did you get these numbers, and would it be possible to see how this number decreased or increased over let's say 2013 and 2014?

[JorgeStolfi]

If we assume that adoption drive prices, then a metric of adoption would be the price itself. This will tell you that adoption has not grown in the past year.
If instead, we assume that adoption doesn't drive prices then the discussion is irrelevant for future prices.

I believe that demand for use in payments, by itself, would not support 100 $/BTC, maybe not even 10 $/BTC.  What keeps the price up is speculation: people buying BTC to hold for weeks or years, waiting for better prices.   That locks up most of the existing 13 million BTC, and makes them scarce on the exchanges.

Assuming that BitPay processes 1 million $/day, I would guess that the total traffic for e-payments now may be perhaps 5 million $/day.  Let's say that bitcoins bought for that purpose stay out of the market for 5 days on the average, before being sold by the payment processors.  Then, at any time, that use would lock up 25 million $ worth of bitcoins.  If there was no speculation, and all 13 million BTC were on the exchanges, that demand would perhaps support a price of 2 $/BTC.

[explorer]

As of September 10, there were only ~650'000 addresses in the blockchain with at least 0.1 BTC (~50 USD).  Assming that a bitcoin user must have at least one address with 0.1 BTC in it, that its an upper bound to the number of bitcoiners.

There may be bitcoiners who have their coins scattered into many addresses, all with less than 0.1 BTC.  Or bitcoiners who happened to be out of bitcoins on that date, but had more bitcoins at other times.  On the other hand, there must be many bitcoiners who own several addresses with more than 0.1 BTC.  Threfore, "650'000 bitcoiners" is more likely to be too high than too low.

That is a really interesting statistic. How did you get these numbers, and would it be possible to see how this number decreased or increased over let's say 2013 and 2014?

How many have all BTC on an exchange(s) though?  Not terribly secure, but do you think it is uncommon?  I bet the number is significant.

[David M]

I reckon this is the 2nd greatest bear trap since $2.

I'm buying 10BTC at $350 flat.

God speed, brother

Cheers mate.  I'm long 578 BTC.  I have 22 BTC to go before I am all in.... again.....

[conspirosphere.tk]

and when you realise how absolutely corrupt and broken the fiat socialists ponzi scheme tax-prison farm really is then you go wtf and go all-in 100% adopt bitcoin.

adoption as diffusion counts relatively on price. What % of population control world's finance? IMO what matters is if btc have some use value (obviously yes: asset protection, privacy, remits, etc.) and if it will keep to constitute the large majority of crypto-market capitalization. Then what is coming in 2015 will enlighten many and btc will spread beyond the original nucleus of paranoid nerds and anarchist gold bugs.

I'm worried more about the fact that the 'enemy' has a money printer and so can play at a loss manipulating the btc market for a long time buying high and selling low.

[David M]

I'm worried more about the fact that the 'enemy' has a money printer and so can play at a loss manipulating the btc market for a long time buying high and selling low.

I consider that the irony of Keynes's "The Market Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent "
The government is forcing the irrationality.

The Honey Badger doesn't care.  Back to $50?  If it has to.

We WILL win outside of a protocol failure.

[darkmind]

now that bitcoin stability is finally achieved it is perfect and price will shoot up!!! ;-)

[JorgeStolfi]

As of September 10, there were only ~650'000 addresses in the blockchain with at least 0.1 BTC (~50 USD).

That is a really interesting statistic. How did you get these numbers, and would it be possible to see how this number decreased or increased over let's say 2013 and 2014?

Sorry, I should have given the link:

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=320000

Those tables are updated infrequently, apparently every 40'000 blocks.  The most recent is up to block 320000 (2014-09-10).  The next one may be block 360000.

By block 280000 (2014-01-12) there were ~450'000 addresses with 0.1 BTC or more.

Addresses with 10 BTC or more were ~101'000 in january, ~114'000 in September.

Those indicators suggest that the number of people who own BTC (whether or not they use it for payments) has been increasing in 2014.  However, the BTC price fell almost by half in that time span: 0.1 BTC was 90$ in January, 50$ in September.   It would be interesting to compute the number of addresses with 50$ worth or more (rather than 0.1 BTC or more), on both dates.  Also, as times passes we can expect that people who have 1000's of BTC will accumulate more and more "crumbs" in their wallets -- addresses with small amounts over 0.1 BTC.

Said another way, those numbers are only upper bounds on the number of bitcoiners; and if the upper bounds increase, it does not mean that the quantity increases.  ("I am doing well, because my net worth was less than 1 million US$ in 2013, and is less than 2 million US$ now.")

[JorgeStolfi]

How many have all BTC on an exchange(s) though?  Not terribly secure, but do you think it is uncommon?  I bet the number is significant.

That should be less common now after the MtGOX fiasco.  Anyway, back in january Huobi's CEO claimed that he had a few tens of thousands active clients.  MtGOX apparently had 70'000, IIRC (much less than the 1-2 million that they claimed).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ShroomsKit]

This is just ridiculous. Fucking Microsoft adopts Bitcoin and people just keep on dumping. Half 2015 Bitcoin will might be 10x as big and the price 10x times as low because of these retarded dumpers and traders.

[ShroomsKit]

Bitcoin is getting bigger every day. Let's make sure to dump the fuck out of it!

[David M]

This is just ridiculous.

Be cool man.  Let the miners and traders do their thing.

<Starship Trooper>
"Remember your training and you will make it out alive"
</Starship Trooper>

[inca]

If we assume that adoption drive prices, then a metric of adoption would be the price itself. This will tell you that adoption has not grown in the past year.
If instead, we assume that adoption doesn't drive prices then the discussion is irrelevant for future prices.

I believe that demand for use in payments, by itself, would not support 100 $/BTC, maybe not even 10 $/BTC.  What keeps the price up is speculation: people buying BTC to hold for weeks or years, waiting for better prices.   That locks up most of the existing 13 million BTC, and makes them scarce on the exchanges.

Assuming that BitPay processes 1 million $/day, I would guess that the total traffic for e-payments now may be perhaps 5 million $/day.  Let's say that bitcoins bought for that purpose stay out of the market for 5 days on the average, before being sold by the payment processors.  Then, at any time, that use would lock up 25 million $ worth of bitcoins.  If there was no speculation, and all 13 million BTC were on the exchanges, that demand would perhaps support a price of 2 $/BTC.

Why do you keep droning on about pricing bitcoin based upon 'demand for use in payments'? Clearly this has never, nor will be for a long time, a decent measure of how to price btc.

Bitcoin is held as a speculative store of value. That is why there are only a tiny float of coins being traded back and forth on the exchanges.

Other than constantly insinuating that the price of bitcoin is too high, why do you insist on this line of pointless thinking?

Do you question why amazon has a massively high price earnings multiple and go screaming from the hills that it is overpriced as a stock?

The single interesting metric you have posted is the number of addresses containing > 0.1 btc. You can cite a reference before we take that one seriously, too.

[NUFCrichard]

This is just ridiculous. Fucking Microsoft adopts Bitcoin and people just keep on dumping. Half 2015 Bitcoin will might be 10x as big and the price 10x times as low because of these retarded dumpers and traders.

Its trading in a range now, it's might be a sucky range, but 340-370 seems to be the range.  The way the economy is starting to shake, I think a country might make make a bank raid again soon, mich as Cyprus did, that is the sort of move that can really help bitcoin.

Venezuela also looks like it is teetering and could go bankrupt. I think it is a shame that Putin is so anti bitcoin when he is pushing for moving away from the USD, and RT seems to love bitcoin too!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[macsga]

Launch date set for December 19.


CCMF!!!!1