Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[lyth0s]

About 6 more days and we may have a negative MACD. Low $300's may be incoming

[grappa_barricata]

The infamous Joe Sixpack don't realized an idea is worth at a certain point. After all, if he was capable of understanding the utility in the first place he had done so already. In fact (taking the mobile phone as example), someone had to place a mobile phone in Joe's hand, almost for free, and even at that point he didn't realize the potential. He merely surrendered to the media bombardment of the mobile phone industry. Then, after years of mobile phone routines, he is now incapable of renouncing mobile communication.
To summarize: The masses will do as told.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[keystroke]

Monkey now wants an upturn on Thursday/Friday, about the same time as S&P, but after oil, which Monkey tells me will reverse first, of the three.  Monkey also thinks long bonds will reverse late in the week.

Monkey does not like gold anymore.  Not in December, anyhow.

What does monkey say over the next few months for BTC?

[inca]

I don't get it?!
That's marketcap. Nothing more, nothing less.  
See here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/031703.asp or here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_capitalization if you're not familiar with it.

Edited to fully respond to the above:  Sorry, but it was simply not implied anywhere that "all 13.6 million bitcoins are traded daily on the exchange".

1. The bitcoins traded for fiat are what determines the price. 2.When the market cap of Bitcoin went from $1 billion to $5 billion do you honestly believe that $4 billion worth of money flowed into Bitcoin? 3.Or was it perhaps a small percentage of the coins on the exchanges that were purchases raising the price?

On points that I've added to your post for clarity:

1. Yes, that's market price. However, judging by the last 12 months charts and by the very last auction it seems that market value is still bellow (possibly significantly bellow) market price, isn't it? In other words, market is not in a state of equilibrium. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_equilibrium
Please note that apparent stable price (apparent price consolidation) has very little to do with equilibrium.

2. A year ago market cap was almost $14 billion. Did $14 billion flow into Bitcoin? Clearly not. Do market participants believe $14 billion will flow into it? Maybe, maybe not but as we speak it seems not many believe it will do so in the near future. So to respond: no, those 4 billion did not flow into bitcoin at that time but some of the money did flow and that was enough (in terms of amount and flow rate) for many market participants to believe/anticipate/speculate that the rest of the money will flow into, in a reasonable amount of time. We are not far from finding out if their belief was justified or not...

3. Artificial scarcity and low market depth on exchanges can only manipulate the price that much. No, that's not the driving factor. On contrary, why do you think the big stakeholders didn't distribute part of their shares so as to help the ecosystem? Please don't tell me it's because of greed because I won't buy it. Well, so perhaps because they couldn't sell? What's sad imho is that if they can't do it very soon, considering there are a max of 650.000 wallets (possibly only 2-300.000 active bitcoiners as per the excellent recent analysis of Jorge Stolfi) after about 5 years, bitcoin won't have any chance to catch up with mass adoption. We are already lagging well behind the historical growth of mobile phones http://addictivelists.com/top-10-countries-with-most-cell-phone-users-in-2014/ but remember those were back in the 1985. We should have a growth comparable with internet, FB etc. Practically mass adoption is pretty much busted imho and only a strong move followed by a hyper-exponential growth in no. of users can bring us back on track. What strong move? Huge collapse of price & major coin distribution...  toward hoards of new users bringing in yet more people and their fresh money... A huge reset of that kind  is much needed. Each passing day without that happening is exactly the opposite of success but mere a slow move toward fading-out.  That's my view. I don't think bitcoin will die but if it remains a niche product for 5-10-50-100 millions users will be much like failing when compared to it's potential...

To understand my rationale, I've used the equation of enterprise value http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enterprise_value together with some simplifying assumptions there. (Bitcoin ecosystem is an enterprise, albeit a very unusual one). On major assumption I've made is the enterprise value of bitcoin is growing and will continue to grow (albeit slowly imho). I don't have the proof it is true but I believe you'll accept it. Anyway, throw some figures at it and hopefully you'll agree that at equilibrium a heck of a lot of money will be needed to go from 350 to anything above 2-3k.

And yet here you are..

[aminorex]

To understand my rationale, I've used the equation of enterprise value http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enterprise_value together with some simplifying assumptions there. (Bitcoin ecosystem is an enterprise, albeit a very unusual one).

If you construct a notional enterprise such that the equation is applicable, that's cool, but I haven't seen any such construction.  It has to account for reserve demand and allow one to model the dynamics of the equation inputs in order to be remotely useful.

I hold that bitcoin most usefully modeled as a currency, that the most useful and germane equation is PQ=MV.

Various sentiment and expectation models, agent aggregations factored by constituency, may be fit, and if it is done adequately, this can offer some improvement in predictive power relative to a coin flip, but there are inherent limits in such a model, and constructing one with rigorous error bars is a costly task - as is narrowing those error bars by judicious data collection.

An influence model might incorporate these as well as growth estimates on the basis of historical comparables.  SMTP is often held out as a comparable, for example.

[Davyd05]

Be careful when clicking on links these days:
http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/12/some-100000-or-more-wordpress-sites-infected-by-mysterious-malware/

noscript ftw

[tarmi]

...
thats what the ticket is for tho...

Yeah, I get it, but why not use it while BTC's tanking?

why not buy a Virgin Galactic space plane ticket and jump off mid flight because you're afraid it might crash and burn.

why not!

[adamstgBit]

...
thats what the ticket is for tho...

Yeah, I get it, but why not use it while BTC's tanking?

why not buy a Virgin Galactic space plane ticket and jump off mid flight because you're afraid it might crash and burn.

why not!

ok.
sometimes it makes sense to eject mid flight...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

I am just putin this here


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30490082

The Russian central bank has announced it is hiking its key interest rate to 17% from 10.5%.

[sniveling]

Be careful when clicking on links these days:
http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/12/some-100000-or-more-wordpress-sites-infected-by-mysterious-malware/

There's been a lot of posts here attempting to get people to click dodgy links recently. Most of them were shortened urls. I scanned one that came up clean until I used an unshortening service, then it showed up as malware.

[grappa_barricata]

[adamstgBit]

 

I am just putin this here


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30490082

The Russian central bank has announced it is hiking its key interest rate to 17% from 10.5%.

It has spent more than $70bn (£44.7bn) supporting the rouble since the start of the year

shoulda bought bitcoin.

[phoenix1]

A big fat lie !!
That cannot be right. Seeing it too but makes no sense at all ... ought to act like a vacuum 

BTW Adam, you reckon passengers get (faulty) ejector seats too ??

[adamstgBit]

[JayJuanGee]

Hah, you can tell this was written by a woman. Welcome to being a man, hon.

The only thing funny about this comment is how people called nanobrain sensitive and accused her of not knowing what she's talking about when she brought up sexist bullshit.

Why do dicks like you feel the need to justify how much of a dick they are by trying to belittle someone who is calling them out for being a dick?

hahahahahaha... that's exactly what I was thinking, when I initially read Octaft's comment, but I was too lazy to post anything..  

How's that buying at the top of the bubble working out for ya, bruh? I always could tell you were stupid, now I'll add ignorant dick to the list right along with Richy_T.

You are quite the sensitive one to be lashing out with random irrelevant topics - but then again white knights do tend to be overly sensitive - that is why they feel uncontrollable needs to rescue dames in distress.

YOU GO, OCTAFT - try to find more dames to rescue on the intertubes, whether they ask for rescuing or NOT.
   

[Richy_T]

It's the only type of people I've known to use the term. If what I said offends you, perhaps the shoe fits more than you'd care to admit?

Offend me? You wish you could. All I'm feeling right now is a mild sense of amusement.

If an observation that many women tend to carry way to much shit around in handbags is enough to get you going, I think I which of us needs to be contemplating thinness of skin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

Which one will recover the most and in the shortest period of time I wonder.