Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

This will go into history as the Christmas eve panic of 2014



Started shorting this fucker just at the left of this image

Ouch, that long I took isn't looking so hot right now 

Great. Every trader losing money is like a christmas present to me.

[BldSwtTrs]

Merry Christmas everybody 

[derpinheimer]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

after over a year of studying bitcoin and posting your various bitcoin analysis, you still somehow believe that bitcoin is a zero sum game?      

Trading bitcoin is a negative-sum game because of the bank and trading fees.  Exchanges do not create any money or bitcoin, but they consume some of both when coins and dollars move through them or inside them.

Suppose that, since 2009, all the traders, current and past, put a total of X bitcoins and Y dollars into the exchanges (both net, deposits minus withdrawals).  Because of the fees, all those people together now have less than X bitcoins and less than Y dollars left in their exchange accounts.  So, as a group, they lost some bitcoins and lost some money.  No matter how the deposits, withdrawals, and balances have been divided among those traders, and how you measure the gains and losses, every gain that a trader made is more than offset by the losses of other traders.

[samsonn25]

Yes indeed where there is opportunity for profit alot of middlemen step in.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[findftp]

Explanation

Chartbuddy, go and take some free time with your family. You've deserved a happy xmas as well

[JayJuanGee]

after over a year of studying bitcoin and posting your various bitcoin analysis, you still somehow believe that bitcoin is a zero sum game?      

Trading bitcoin is a negative-sum game because of the bank and trading fees.  Exchanges do not create any money or bitcoin, but they consume some of both when coins and dollars move through them or inside them.

Suppose that, since 2009, all the traders, current and past, put a total of X bitcoins and Y dollars into the exchanges (both net, deposits minus withdrawals).  Because of the fees, all those people together now have less than X bitcoins and less than Y dollars left in their exchange accounts.  So, as a group, they lost some bitcoins and lost some money.  No matter how the deposits, withdrawals, and balances have been divided among those traders, and how you measure the gains and losses, every gain that a trader made is more than offset by the losses of other traders.

Jorge: You may be coming along a little bit, and at least you seem to be considering the bitcoin economy from 2009, rather than focusing on it since November 2013, which seems to had been your previous practice.


As you may know, there is a lot more to any economy rather than some exchange activiities, and the narrow bitcoin world that you attempt to be outlining from your asserted neutral academic perspective.  In any investment, there are a large variety of transactional costs and economic activities that have a variety of rippling effects (positive and negative) upon other aspects of the economy. 

We should NOT be attempting to describe any economy in isolation and by merely focusing on a few selective factors and then suggest that instead of having a zero sum game the whole of the contributions add up to a negative sum game because there happens to be transaction costs involved.  Your outline and description of bitcoin contributions seems to be selectively biased and inadequate.

You surely seem to spend a lot of time on a topic to attempt to negatively describe it and to project its demise and to fail to see the many positive attributes in which various cryptos, including bitcoin creates positive economic activity in the short and medium term and even if aspects do NOT survive in the long term remain socially / economically beneficial contributory forces.

[inca]

Love the cynical 2.5k dump on finex, ha! Love these natural market trades. 

[BldSwtTrs]

after over a year of studying bitcoin and posting your various bitcoin analysis, you still somehow believe that bitcoin is a zero sum game?      

Trading bitcoin is a negative-sum game because of the bank and trading fees.  Exchanges do not create any money or bitcoin, but they consume some of both when coins and dollars move through them or inside them.

Suppose that, since 2009, all the traders, current and past, put a total of X bitcoins and Y dollars into the exchanges (both net, deposits minus withdrawals).  Because of the fees, all those people together now have less than X bitcoins and less than Y dollars left in their exchange accounts.  So, as a group, they lost some bitcoins and lost some money.  No matter how the deposits, withdrawals, and balances have been divided among those traders, and how you measure the gains and losses, every gain that a trader made is more than offset by the losses of other traders.

It's a game with positive externalities (the price convey information to other economic agents and thus guide the allocation of economic resources).
 
And the trading game in itself is negative only if we account for the monetary gain-losses, but the overall subjective value gaining by the sum of each agent involved in this game is greater than the netting of their monetary accounts (subjective value begets by an exchange needs to be greater than the objective monetary value involved in order that the said exchange happens).

[FatherBob]

...
You surely seem to spend a lot of time on a topic to attempt to negatively describe it and to project its demise and to fail to see the many positive attributes in which various cryptos, including bitcoin creates positive economic activity in the short and medium term and even if aspects do NOT survive in the long term remain socially / economically beneficial contributory forces.

My son, I see you have put much thought into your lengthy yet delightfully levitous sentence, which likely started out as a medium-length, or even short sentence that, after a comma, compounded and continued to grow and grow--like a weed reaching for sunshine which JUST GOT to be there outside above this deep, dark, and, frankly, depressingly damp oubliette; and WHO in God's name uses words like oubliette when they really mean "sewer sinkhole," and what does levitous even mean?!

All good questions, my child, and the answer is Him!

  ~Rev.  FatherBob

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

It's a game with positive externalities [... ] the trading game in itself is negative only if we account for the monetary gain-losses, but the overall subjective value gaining by the sum of each agent involved in this game is greater than the netting of their monetary accounts (subjective value begets by an exchange needs to be greater than the objective monetary value involved in order that the said exchange happens).

Well, I agree.  Besides doubling my BTC holdings every day for a year now, I learned a lot of new things from posts and links in this forum, and (believe it of not) from this thread especially.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[FreeBambi]

boop!

http://s18.postimg.org/ietc71hlh/Capture.jpg

[FatherBob]

Last rites sale, gentlemen.
Christmas Special, be right with Him @ 50% off our already unwholesomely low low low price!
Administered by a qualified trained Doctor of Divinity, fully licensed and bonded in the lower 48 as well as Alaska and Hawaii.

  ~Rev. FatherBob

[Richy_T]

Bah, humbug.

Merry Christmas all. God bless us, every one.

[unent]

It's a game with positive externalities [... ] the trading game in itself is negative only if we account for the monetary gain-losses, but the overall subjective value gaining by the sum of each agent involved in this game is greater than the netting of their monetary accounts (subjective value begets by an exchange needs to be greater than the objective monetary value involved in order that the said exchange happens).

Well, I agree.  Besides doubling my BTC holdings every day for a year now, I learned a lot of new things from posts and links in this forum, and (believe it of not) from this thread especially.

Hi! If you doubled your bitcoin holdings every day for the past year, and currently owned all the bitcoins that I don't own, you would have started the year with 10^-117 bitcoins and now own 21 million bitcoins.

Perhaps he started off with one sat.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation