Can Marine Le Pen win?

[signature200]

In the US presidential elections, the opinion polls had it very close. According to the polls, Hillary had a lead of only around 2% or 3% during the last week of the elections. But in France it is different. The other candidates are polling around 20 points more than Le Pen in the second round.

We're not on the last week before elections, and the polls at 2 months before were showing spreads like Mrs. Clinton 46%, Mr. Trump 39%.
At Iowa, the spread went from 2.5% at last poll to 10% of actual result or Wisconsin giving on the last polls Mrs. Clinton an 8% advantage being the electoral result of 0.5% on Mr. Trump's favor.
So, yes, polls can't predict much and can fail for a large margin. Being FN way worse than Mr. Trump, I wouldn't be surprised if the error margin was somewhere between 10 to 30 pp.

In the rust belt states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, they got it completely wrong. No one expected Trump to sweep the rust belt (with the exception of Minnesota and Illinois). Can this repeat in France?

Exactly. If Trump can win, with a decidedly divisive campaign platform, well dammit, Miss Le Pen should do just swimmingly.

But how this augurs for the current state of humanity, is another topic entirely.

Humanity will be perfectly fine, at least in France. For the sake of humanity, the French can't flood their country with unwashed hordes of immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa. France is a small country with a population of just around 60 million. It can't absorb all the 1.2 billion people living in the Sub-Saharan Africa.

The problem is that no one is going to ask permission from the French. Muslim immigrants just like cockroaches crawl across the country and then try them out. Soon they will begin to give birth to children and hide behind them from deportation.

[1714887520]

1714887520

[1714887520]

1714887520

[1714887520]

1714887520

[craked5]

In the US presidential elections, the opinion polls had it very close. According to the polls, Hillary had a lead of only around 2% or 3% during the last week of the elections. But in France it is different. The other candidates are polling around 20 points more than Le Pen in the second round.

We're not on the last week before elections, and the polls at 2 months before were showing spreads like Mrs. Clinton 46%, Mr. Trump 39%.
At Iowa, the spread went from 2.5% at last poll to 10% of actual result or Wisconsin giving on the last polls Mrs. Clinton an 8% advantage being the electoral result of 0.5% on Mr. Trump's favor.
So, yes, polls can't predict much and can fail for a large margin. Being FN way worse than Mr. Trump, I wouldn't be surprised if the error margin was somewhere between 10 to 30 pp.

In the rust belt states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, they got it completely wrong. No one expected Trump to sweep the rust belt (with the exception of Minnesota and Illinois). Can this repeat in France?

Exactly. If Trump can win, with a decidedly divisive campaign platform, well dammit, Miss Le Pen should do just swimmingly.

But how this augurs for the current state of humanity, is another topic entirely.

Humanity will be perfectly fine, at least in France. For the sake of humanity, the French can't flood their country with unwashed hordes of immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa. France is a small country with a population of just around 60 million. It can't absorb all the 1.2 billion people living in the Sub-Saharan Africa.

LOL, because her whole campaign was only about immigration (I'm being sarcastic). What about her stance on Jewish citizens revoking Israel? What about her plans to greatly increase prison infrastructure and police spending to preserve "law and order"? And why are people so damned afraid of Muslims? Don't they get that the average Muslim has a life, and bills and kids and shit, and doesn't have time to actively plot the demise of non Muslims? The people blowing shit up are fucking nutjobs, it would be akin to if I screamed out " What would Jesus do bitch?! " before committing some horrible crime. That would make me a crazy head. Not Christian.


What's your definition of humanity? If we meant people acting in their own interest at the expense of others, then yes, the current wave of populist fervor sweeping the globe is quite human

People like you are the reason I haven't leaved the country yet.
Seems there are SOME (not enough, but some) people that still use their brains to think with reason and logic.

Increasing police strength and prisons can only have one consequence, the increase of criminality and uprisings in the country...
There is NOTHING in Le Pen program that is both realistic and can positively impact society. Or at least I'm still waiting for someone to point it out.

[frankbit]

In the US presidential elections, the opinion polls had it very close. According to the polls, Hillary had a lead of only around 2% or 3% during the last week of the elections. But in France it is different. The other candidates are polling around 20 points more than Le Pen in the second round.

We're not on the last week before elections, and the polls at 2 months before were showing spreads like Mrs. Clinton 46%, Mr. Trump 39%.
At Iowa, the spread went from 2.5% at last poll to 10% of actual result or Wisconsin giving on the last polls Mrs. Clinton an 8% advantage being the electoral result of 0.5% on Mr. Trump's favor.
So, yes, polls can't predict much and can fail for a large margin. Being FN way worse than Mr. Trump, I wouldn't be surprised if the error margin was somewhere between 10 to 30 pp.

In the rust belt states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, they got it completely wrong. No one expected Trump to sweep the rust belt (with the exception of Minnesota and Illinois). Can this repeat in France?

Exactly. If Trump can win, with a decidedly divisive campaign platform, well dammit, Miss Le Pen should do just swimmingly.

But how this augurs for the current state of humanity, is another topic entirely.

Humanity will be perfectly fine, at least in France. For the sake of humanity, the French can't flood their country with unwashed hordes of immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa. France is a small country with a population of just around 60 million. It can't absorb all the 1.2 billion people living in the Sub-Saharan Africa.

LOL, because her whole campaign was only about immigration (I'm being sarcastic). What about her stance on Jewish citizens revoking Israel? What about her plans to greatly increase prison infrastructure and police spending to preserve "law and order"? And why are people so damned afraid of Muslims? Don't they get that the average Muslim has a life, and bills and kids and shit, and doesn't have time to actively plot the demise of non Muslims? The people blowing shit up are fucking nutjobs, it would be akin to if I screamed out " What would Jesus do bitch?! " before committing some horrible crime. That would make me a crazy head. Not Christian.


What's your definition of humanity? If we meant people acting in their own interest at the expense of others, then yes, the current wave of populist fervor sweeping the globe is quite human

People like you are the reason I haven't leaved the country yet.
Seems there are SOME (not enough, but some) people that still use their brains to think with reason and logic.

Increasing police strength and prisons can only have one consequence, the increase of criminality and uprisings in the country...
There is NOTHING in Le Pen program that is both realistic and can positively impact society. Or at least I'm still waiting for someone to point it out.

Unfortunately nowadays we see a large number of populist power-hungry. The first course opened this topic in London. Their exit from the European Union significantly weakened the position of Europe, and thus does not make life easier for ordinary Britons. Then there was Trump. Only in America a lot of limitations to Trump so he has not destroyed America. In Europe there is no such restriction and this is a big problem.

[youdamushi]

I just love how people are actually talking of Le Pen as someone "trustable" while she's clearly used her deep family connexions to get maximum of money she could...

And on the other hand no one here seems to talk about Melanchon and his will to get read of corruption and politics abusing power...

We have ONE candidate who clearly says "I'll give back the power to the people by letting you decide on your constitution" ad no one gives a fuck.
Cool.

[numismatist]

I just love how people are actually talking of Le Pen as someone "trustable" while she's clearly used her deep family connexions to get maximum of money she could...

And on the other hand no one here seems to talk about Melanchon and his will to get read of corruption and politics abusing power...

We have ONE candidate who clearly says "I'll give back the power to the people by letting you decide on your constitution" ad no one gives a fuck.
Cool.

Not even his supporters know Jean-Luc Mélenchon's name?

There are no explanatory patterns for this effect. Sanders, Grillo, Melenchon something makes their names disappear. Maybe they invented something water soluble  that causes amnesia on everything leftwing associated.

[youdamushi]

I just love how people are actually talking of Le Pen as someone "trustable" while she's clearly used her deep family connexions to get maximum of money she could...

And on the other hand no one here seems to talk about Melanchon and his will to get read of corruption and politics abusing power...

We have ONE candidate who clearly says "I'll give back the power to the people by letting you decide on your constitution" ad no one gives a fuck.
Cool.

Not even his supporters know Jean-Luc Mélenchon's name?

There are no explanatory patterns for this effect. Sanders, Grillo, Melenchon something makes their names disappear. Maybe they invented something water soluble  that causes amnesia on everything leftwing associated.

Ahahahahah xD

Ok ok guilty here!
Well to be fair I don't give a fuck about his name.
It's his program that appeals me. He could be named "JC Dickbutt" that I couldn't care less :p

[Sithara007]

The problem is that no one is going to ask permission from the French. Muslim immigrants just like cockroaches crawl across the country and then try them out. Soon they will begin to give birth to children and hide behind them from deportation.

Already close to 40% of the children born in France are non-white, with the vast majority of them being Muslim. Once these people get their voting rights, they will decide who should rule France.

[BCEmporium]

We have ONE candidate who clearly says "I'll give back the power to the people by letting you decide on your constitution" ad no one gives a fuck.
Cool.

What does this means?! Will go on another ridiculous system like the Greeks trying to vote out their debt?
There're limits for what Democracy can and can't do...

[youdamushi]

We have ONE candidate who clearly says "I'll give back the power to the people by letting you decide on your constitution" ad no one gives a fuck.
Cool.

What does this means?! Will go on another ridiculous system like the Greeks trying to vote out their debt?
There're limits for what Democracy can and can't do...

It means what it means: we end the fifth republic and create the sixth. And contrary to all the others, here the people will vote their constitution.

[BCEmporium]

Right... any idea on what to put there?

[Sithara007]

We have ONE candidate who clearly says "I'll give back the power to the people by letting you decide on your constitution" ad no one gives a fuck.
Cool.

What does this means?! Will go on another ridiculous system like the Greeks trying to vote out their debt?
There're limits for what Democracy can and can't do...

If a majority of the Greek voters want to default on the federal debt, then their choice must be respected. The people are simply saying that they are not responsible for all that mess, and the politicians are solely responsible for the debt.

[BCEmporium]

We have ONE candidate who clearly says "I'll give back the power to the people by letting you decide on your constitution" ad no one gives a fuck.
Cool.

What does this means?! Will go on another ridiculous system like the Greeks trying to vote out their debt?
There're limits for what Democracy can and can't do...

If a majority of the Greek voters want to default on the federal debt, then their choice must be respected. The people are simply saying that they are not responsible for all that mess, and the politicians are solely responsible for the debt.

So default and pay the consequences...
And no, "politics" aren't the only ones to blame, people took advantage of the funds, it's not like the politicians alone put all to their pockets, also people said nothing while debt was going through the roof.

[Daniel91]

Yes, she can win, of course
Nobody believed in Brexit or that Trump can win US presidential elections and we see what happened.
It's real question how much French people still believe in their political establishment.
If they fear immigrants very much and don't trust current political leaders, than Le Pen have very good chances to win.
If such scenario happen, we will see also Freexit and probably the end of EU.

[Sithara007]

If such scenario happen, we will see also Freexit and probably the end of EU.

Nope. The European Union will exist as long as Germany remains interested in it. Germany needs East European slave labor, and the East European states need remittance money from Germany.

[Marcus_2017]

If such scenario happen, we will see also Freexit and probably the end of EU.

Nope. The European Union will exist as long as Germany remains interested in it. Germany needs East European slave labor, and the East European states need remittance money from Germany.

If Germany was interested in slaves that the EU did not stop its expansion. I think that is another question. Besides, now there is a powerful attack on candidates who support Russia. I think they will not become President of France. This post is a person loyal to Germany.

[popcorn1]

To the french people if you love your country YOU MUST VOTE  Marine Le Pen..

Your country will turn into a complete ghetto of Islamic crazies and your french people will be no more..

Your way of life ..Paris the city of love..No more the city of Islam it will become..

Take no notice of any other politician SHE IS THE ONLY PERSON FOR THE JOB..

Believe in me i want the best for all of EUROPE But the EU is using us like CATTLE it's time to get these fuckers out..
We must get our identities back Before we cannot say the words FREEDOM OF SPEECH..

The politicians want ISLAM because they are easy to control .

They are take a look at the middle east they control the people like slaves..

WELL WE WESTERNERS WILL NEVER BE SLAVES TO NO MF..And fuck your RELIGIONS..

HOLLAND YOUR NEXT..

The Netherlands' most popular party wants to ban all mosques | The ...
www.independent.co.uk › News › World › Europe
28 Aug 2016 - The leader of the most popular Dutch party ahead of parliamentary elections ... in which it calls for the total “de-Islamification” of the Netherlands.



To Holland the news are trying to say your country is suppose to be a free country..
so why the hate for ISLAM..

WE ALL KNOW OUR FREEDOMS WILL BE GONE IF THESE ISLAMIC FUCKS SPREAD..

We wont be free anymore ..
NO BOOZE ..NO SMOKING WEED.. NO SEX BEFORE MARRIED..NO NOTHING .

WE ARE FIGHTING OUR FREEDOMS ..

VOTE   Marine Le Pen  ..WE HAVE AN ISLAMIC INVASION ..

Our politicians are bought by these islamic crazies..

[Sithara007]

If such scenario happen, we will see also Freexit and probably the end of EU.

Nope. The European Union will exist as long as Germany remains interested in it. Germany needs East European slave labor, and the East European states need remittance money from Germany.

If Germany was interested in slaves that the EU did not stop its expansion. I think that is another question. Besides, now there is a powerful attack on candidates who support Russia. I think they will not become President of France. This post is a person loyal to Germany.

So the next French president will make sure that France remains as a vassal state of Germany? Good for the Germans. France will remain in the EU despite a vast majority of the French citizens favoring Frexit.

[novemberwoah]

The scandal cost the EU agencies make herself slump lately. In addition, the French people also saw the development of the situation in the US since Donald Trump lead, appeared a number of controversial cases, including restrictions on immigration policy. The views Le Pen that anti-EU and anti-migrant is frightening many people in Europe.

Because Le Pen almost the same as Trump, the French people seem to learn from the experience in the US so ahead of the presidential election of April 23, 2017 and May 7, 2017 later, the French people will divert voice for Macron and Fillon.

[Lancusters]

If such scenario happen, we will see also Freexit and probably the end of EU.

Nope. The European Union will exist as long as Germany remains interested in it. Germany needs East European slave labor, and the East European states need remittance money from Germany.

If Germany was interested in slaves that the EU did not stop its expansion. I think that is another question. Besides, now there is a powerful attack on candidates who support Russia. I think they will not become President of France. This post is a person loyal to Germany.

So the next French president will make sure that France remains as a vassal state of Germany? Good for the Germans. France will remain in the EU despite a vast majority of the French citizens favoring Frexit.

Why do you think that the French are in the majority want to leave the EU? Now Peugeot buys Opel. This is to leave the EU and then running into a trade war with Germany? No, I think that nothing will change after elections in France. Besides, the right still need to win elections.

[ridery99]

I hope she wins so she can free french people from the nazi new world order