BITSTAMP eXchange wall Observer. second biggest and best exchange

[oda.krell]

If volume was moving to bitstamp, shouldn't it be increasing in that chart? I see it is quite flat…

Volume didn't pick up on bitstamp to completely make up for the loss of volume on mtgox. So overall volume went down. But what appears to be a flat line is actually slightly going up (remember, log chart), *and* it is a near constant volume in overall falling volume, in other words, the relative importance of bitstamp went up.

[dserrano5]

Volume didn't pick up on bitstamp to completely make up for the loss of volume on mtgox. So overall volume went down.

Thanks, I was under the impression that volume was fleeing mtgox to other exchanges.

But what appears to be a flat line is actually slightly going up (remember, log chart)

Judging from the Y axis values, that isn't a log chart. And even if it were, small movements at the bottom of the chart are perfectly visible.

[oda.krell]

Judging from the Y axis values, that isn't a log chart. And even if it were, small movements at the bottom of the chart are perfectly visible.

Depends on how exactly the y axis is set up. But the point is moot because you're right, the scale is linear.

The only possible narrative to draw from that chart is that Bitstamp volume is flat while Gox volume is decaying to match it. I interpret the approach to this limit as speaking to the meager arbitrage volume between Gox and Bitstamp. Which, given the depth of Gox's order book does not bode well for Bitstamp. It means that Bitstamp is beholden to this arbitrage volume during both high and low volume periods.

Or is it?

Arbitrage volume is low because there's not enough profit/too much risk due to the fiat cashout delay on mtgox, plus the actual risk (real or not) of insolvency. I see (mtgox) order book size as mostly unrelated to that, it's a combination of fiat being stuck on the exchange, mtgox historically being the preferred exchange for large traders, and money sitting on the sidelines by those who are out of the loop/simply not interested in the mtgox metagame. Bitstamp order book on the other hand always had a decent sized ask side, but bid size was and is meager. There will be a tipping point where the advantage of the higher depth on mtgox will no longer outweigh the benefits of higher (and more consistent) volume on bitstamp -- only then will market depth on bitstamp match its volume. If mtgox fixes their shit before that point is reached, bitstamp will probably remain secondary, but I don't see any improvements on mtgox so far. ("10 wires per day." Really?)

[oda.krell]

Judging from the Y axis values, that isn't a log chart. And even if it were, small movements at the bottom of the chart are perfectly visible.

Depends on how exactly the y axis is set up. But the point is moot because you're right, the scale is linear.

The only possible narrative to draw from that chart is that Bitstamp volume is flat while Gox volume is decaying to match it. I interpret the approach to this limit as speaking to the meager arbitrage volume between Gox and Bitstamp. Which, given the depth of Gox's order book does not bode well for Bitstamp. It means that Bitstamp is beholden to this arbitrage volume during both high and low volume periods.

Or is it?

Arbitrage volume is low because there's not enough profit/too much risk due to the fiat cashout delay on mtgox, plus the actual risk (real or not) of insolvency. I see (mtgox) order book size as mostly unrelated to that, it's a combination of fiat being stuck on the exchange, mtgox historically being the preferred exchange for large traders, and money sitting on the sidelines by those who are out of the loop/simply not interested in the mtgox metagame. Bitstamp order book on the other hand always had a decent sized ask side, but bid size was and is meager. There will be a tipping point where the advantage of the higher depth on mtgox will no longer outweigh the benefits of higher (and more consistent) volume on bitstamp -- only then will market depth on bitstamp match its volume. If mtgox fixes their shit before that point is reached, bitstamp will probably remain secondary, but I don't see any improvements on mtgox so far. ("10 wires per day." Really?)

Gox's order book size is unrelated to the arbitrage volume, that was the point.

Nothing has changed regarding average volume on Bitstamp. The takeaway is that as volume returns to Gox all we will see is bigger arb channels that still don't get filled. Bitstamp remains no threat to Gox, and as sketchy as Gox is, this does not bode well for Bitstamp. The point.

And that was my point: if volume *doesn't* return to mtgox, the status quo is not sustainable.

[Apraksin]

Volume has been a joke for days now, anyone care to explain to an amateur why the price is rising?

[wachtwoord]

Volume has been a joke for days now, anyone care to explain to an amateur why the price is rising?

Because Bitcoin is massively undervalued.

[uyo]

Volume has been a joke for days now, anyone care to explain to an amateur why the price is rising?

Observing order book I would say that someone is pushing price up at Mtgox (also volume raised there lately), Bitstamp is following (at lower speed).  But I'm also an amateur.

[Walsoraj]

Volume has been a joke for days now, anyone care to explain to an amateur why the price is rising?

Because Bitcoin is massively undervalued manipulated.

 

[johnyj]

Volume has been a joke for days now, anyone care to explain to an amateur why the price is rising?

The price will always rise, due to shrinking daily coin supply and more and more people joining the game

[tarmi]

The price will always rise, due to shrinking daily coin supply and more and more people joining the game

wrong, daily coin supply is constant.

[Apraksin]

Volume has been a joke for days now, anyone care to explain to an amateur why the price is rising?

The price will always rise, due to shrinking daily coin supply and more and more people joining the game

Who are these people joining the game? The chinese? Google trends shows a further drop in interest.

[manfred]

Volume has been a joke for days now, anyone care to explain to an amateur why the price is rising?

The price will always rise, due to shrinking daily coin supply and more and more people joining the game

Who are these people joining the game? The chinese? Google trends shows a further drop in interest.

The Chinese are only interested in mining with the "faulty" production ASIC's and cashing in as fast as possible. You can see it at the luck of places accepting bitcoin in china compared to the volume. Its not a believe in Bitcoin but the knowledge to get easy money.

[RationalSpeculator]

Volume has been a joke for days now, anyone care to explain to an amateur why the price is rising?

The price will always rise, due to shrinking daily coin supply and more and more people joining the game

Who are these people joining the game? The chinese? Google trends shows a further drop in interest.

The Chinese are only interested in mining with the "faulty" production ASIC's and cashing in as fast as possible. You can see it at the luck of places accepting bitcoin in china compared to the volume. Its not a believe in Bitcoin but the knowledge to get easy money.

Interesting, chinese have not proven yet to have much vision, copying won't cut it. To understand the value of bitcoin you need a desire for freedom, independence, sovereignity for the individual. Not their strongest side.

[molecular]

The price will always rise, due to shrinking daily coin supply and more and more people joining the game

wrong, daily coin supply is constant.

In absolute terms it's roughly constant for the next 3 years, yes.

However, in relative terms (think: inflation), it's indeed constantly falling:



@johnyj: this should already be priced in since it's known, don't you think?

[molecular]

Interesting, chinese have not proven yet to have much vision, copying won't cut it. To understand the value of bitcoin you need a desire for freedom, independence, sovereignity for the individual. Not their strongest side.

I beg to differ.

The chinese people have seen many a paper currency come and go, they save in gold.

The chinese government has a strong need for a sound reserve currency. The USD quite obviously doesn't cut it any longer. These people are not stupid and are enabled to think in longer time horizons than until the next election.

[oda.krell]

The price will always rise, due to shrinking daily coin supply and more and more people joining the game

wrong, daily coin supply is constant.

In absolute terms it's roughly constant for the next 3 years, yes.

However, in relative terms (think: inflation), it's indeed constantly falling:



@johnyj: this should already be priced in since it's known, don't you think?

If this market would be mainly driven by professional traders, institutional investors, etc., then, yes, maybe. (cue: "lol banks are fail. expect hyperinflation tomorrow!") In reality, I'm not sure at all if it is priced in, especially because it touches on the central question of pretty much all of our current trading: how to accurately price something that has huge potential, but also a rather large chance of failing. If our little experiment turns out to be successful, the gradual realization of the reality of coin supply will drive price up at a breakneck speed. If it fails, for whatever reason, the coin supply won't matter anyway.

[SheHadMANHands]

So much action on BitStamp that one guy can drive the market down several percentage with 400btc ask walls.

[billym2k]

What's up with the ask walls on bitstamp? Are a bunch of people buying on bitstamp and selling on gox? It does really look like, to me, people are trying to cap bitstamp prices for some reason...

[derpinheimer]

Hm, I only see one 1k ask. Have they all been pulled? Thats really odd.

[damnek]

It's one order slowly moving down.. the orderbook on their site doesn't print it right