Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections

[arepo]

i'm not sure what i should do here.... I guess mail them out without the fourth subscriber? someone tipped me, apparently

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[michaelGedi]

i'm not sure what i should do here.... I guess mail them out without the fourth subscriber? someone tipped me, apparently

wasn't me, I'll tip you afterwards if I can afford it


maybe send them out and keep your ear to the ground so when they do realise they need to message you their details, you can send it onwards

[arepo]

SECOND BOUNTY STATUS: FILLED

0.85/0.8 BTC

subscribers: 4
-dandirk
-frozenlock
-michaelGedi

Last call. Emails will go out at 19:30 EST. if your name is not on this list, and you contributed to the second bounty, please PM me your amount and email address. If you do not do this by 19:30, I will not send you a report.

(everyone whose handle is on the list can expect the email at the time specified above)

[arepo]

i'm not sure what i should do here.... I guess mail them out without the fourth subscriber? someone tipped me, apparently

wasn't me, I'll tip you afterwards if I can afford it


maybe send them out and keep your ear to the ground so when they do realise they need to message you their details, you can send it onwards

only problem with that is that at this point, anyone can just look at the blockchain and claim the report. that's why the directions in the OP explicitly said to send both simultaneously. oh well...

[michaelGedi]

i'm not sure what i should do here.... I guess mail them out without the fourth subscriber? someone tipped me, apparently

wasn't me, I'll tip you afterwards if I can afford it


maybe send them out and keep your ear to the ground so when they do realise they need to message you their details, you can send it onwards

only problem with that is that at this point, anyone can just look at the blockchain and claim the report. that's why the directions in the OP explicitly said to send both simultaneously. oh well...

yes that would make sense... ah well, I sent that one too then, you can send me it twice

[arepo]

they should post hash of amount in this thread =D and then send you the amount

they sent it already. it's visible in the blockchain. i didn't think so much security was necessary as the directions were pretty straightforward

seems no-one's gonna claim it, so the email will be sent out at 19:30 EST as indicated above.

[arepo]

The second round of emails has been sent!

Once again, thank you all for supporting me in this! I'm excited at the turnout, and I hope you find my work to your standards.

Please let me know that you received the email, and that the report is readable. Also, any suggestions for improvement are more than welcome. This report was intentionally streamlined as I was not sure how popular it would be on the forums, with an emphasis on accessibility because my main audience was newbies. If there is sufficient demand, I can put together a more comprehensive report for more technically literate traders with more emphasis on deconstruction of the indicators, one of my favorite methods, and longer-term projections.

For anyone who was left out of the loop, feel free to PM me or post in this thread, and with sufficient demand I will open another bounty.

here is a sampling of my most recent work for those of you unfamiliar with me.

Thanks again! And good luck trading

--arepo

[arepo]

UPDATE 1:

recent price action upgrades scenario 1 to "more or equally likely" from "less likely". the price targets in the third bullet on page 23 will apply if it resolves this way. keep an eye on the 6hr RSI -- 55 may be the 'bottom' for scenario 1 (page 22), instead of the 50-line. otherwise, if it breaks below these critical supports, scenario 2 will become more likely again.

good luck

--arepo

[Frozenlock]

Thanks, I appreciate your coded update 

[arepo]

UPDATE 2:

looks like page 18 was the prophetic one. my upgraded likelihood for scen 1 seems to have been an appropriate call too. don't worry about the volatility, that was expected -- we had to let off some steam -- we should still reach the "lesser resistance" at least.

[arepo]

important* update 3:

i just sent out an email about ten minutes ago. it had a chart enclosed and some updates regarding current market behavior. it's a useful extension of 'scenario 1', be sure to check it out.

also, if you didn't get the email and you subscribed to this report, let me know.

--arepo

[arepo]

update 4:

the price is acting more bullish than even my most bullish sub-scenario! this is exciting but worrying. corrections cannot be avoided, only carefully timed

keep an eye on those supports i outlined in the last email update. momentum can still theoretically correct all the way down to the second, lower line (the moving support) without indicating a reversal. remember the important resistance that is included in the price targets of the report -- this is still my best guess for the general timing of the top. i may consider revision because of recent bullish momentum, but prices above this target carry too much risk for me, personally.

happy to see scenario 1 continue to play out very straightforwardly. as always, send me some mail if you wanna chat

--arepo

[ruski]

Arepo, I hope you realize that actually selling financial advice is a crime unless you are qualified to do so, and you're exposing yourself to litigation and liability for any losses anyone makes taking your advice if you are not.

It's all good and well until you start charging.

[arepo]

Arepo, I hope you realize that actually selling financial advice is a crime unless you are qualified to do so, and you're exposing yourself to litigation and liability for any losses anyone makes taking your advice if you are not.

It's all good and well until you start charging.

i am relatively aware of this, and included a simple disclaimer with the original price report. is that enough to protect me? these updates have been free, and are really just conversation with the subscribers.

thanks for the heads up.

[ruski]

is that enough to protect me?

I'm not a lawyer, so I'm going to follow my own advice on that one Not to make any comment on how good or bad your advice may be, I was just concerned for you. Best of luck.

[arepo]

is that enough to protect me?

I'm not a lawyer, so I'm going to follow my own advice on that one Not to make any comment on how good or bad your advice may be, I was just concerned for you. Best of luck.

i was a little concerned for me, too, but decided to rather throw caution to the wind -- and now you've got me worried.

in the OP i gave a brief introduction, i'm just a young guy with a penchant for math and i've been working out methods for bitcoin analysis awhile. i am not 'certified' to give 'financial advice'. these are simply observations based on my trading strategies and price models, and my subscribers use it to inform their trading at their own risk. i am not liable for any losses, and i made that clear in the included disclaimer.

again: anything in the price report or in this thread that may look like financial advice, is in fact not.

if anyone is more familiar with the legality of this, please PM me privately. if you inform me well i may compensate you for your efforts.

[ruski]

PMed.

[michaelGedi]

I can't speak for anyone else but I'm not taking it as "financial advice" in a formal sense and I don't think it's been dressed as such.

More of an informed opinion... an opinion that may be more informed than mine. It's my choice what I do with my BTC, and arepo has made that fairly clear IMO. However, my opinion could be wrong, as could arepo's analysis. I don't know what the law says about these things or the exact wording of arepo's report, but the disclaimer was in there.

Hopefully other people will see that where figures are quoted as possible hits, supports, resistance points and so on, arepo could be totally wrong. So, you would be totally wrong to follow the informed opinion to the letter. There are no exacting recommendations on when to buy or when to sell, just possible scenarios and possible best answers to each scenario that are all fairly loose and open to interpretation.

I would also add that reading analysis as an emotional investor is very helpful as it keeps things in perspective... but yeah, enough said

[arepo]

I can't speak for anyone else but I'm not taking it as "financial advice" in a formal sense and I don't think it's been dressed as such.

More of an informed opinion... an opinion that may be more informed than mine. It's my choice what I do with my BTC, and arepo has made that fairly clear IMO. However, my opinion could be wrong, as could arepo's analysis. I don't know what the law says about these things or the exact wording of arepo's report, but the disclaimer was in there.

Hopefully other people will see that where figures are quoted as possible hits, supports, resistance points and so on, arepo could be totally wrong. So, you would be totally wrong to follow the informed opinion to the letter. There are no exacting recommendations on when to buy or when to sell, just possible scenarios and possible best answers to each scenario that are all fairly loose and open to interpretation.

I would also add that reading analysis as an emotional investor is very helpful as it keeps things in perspective... but yeah, enough said

thanks for your subscriber-side perspective. i'm doing some research now. hopefully i won't have to make all of you confirm in a legally binding way that you won't bring a lawsuit against me  

[dandirk]

thanks for your subscriber-side perspective. i'm doing some research now. hopefully i won't have to make all of you confirm in a legally binding way that you won't bring a lawsuit against me  

No worries from me either arepo...  I hate that the legal system has turned to this... Where something as risky as ANY financial advice can be sued like that.  I suppose a fine line could be made for scam vs advice, yet at the end of the day it is our BTC and us performing the action... just as if we heard a tip on the train going to work.

I would think a disclaimer would be enough, maybe an opt-out form or something.

Arepo, don't worry about making us do some additional disclaimer thing, if it saves you from douche bags that can't think for themselves and trust their life savings to you on a whim I will be more then happy to comply.  Just don't put in any small lettering demanding my first born... first that's just demented and second... not having any:)