Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections

[arepo]

update 11:

*charts are 1-month 6-hour scale*

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right now, we are still in scenario black.

if the trendline breaks, scenario red could still be bullish, but carries a lot of reversal-risk (see high-volume green 'doji' on 6-hour scale)

and at least for now, it still seems like there is too much bullish momentum and not enough selling pressure for scenario blue (REVERSAL).

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this is it. this is the big moment where we test the trend's support -- if we go any lower, the picture turns bearish. the bullish momentum is gone and the selling pressure is on, we need a big bounce.

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compare to:

I guess this was C, as trend line under attack

$140 should hold... if we go below then trend is broken...

[from lucif's thread again]

--arepo

[arepo]

Well, I guess nobody wants bitcoins after all -- we're all just in it for the USD 

[Frozenlock]

Well, I guess nobody wants bitcoins after all -- we're all just in it for the USD 

Oh I want bitcoins. But I can have moarrrr if I wait!

[arepo]

Well, I guess nobody wants bitcoins after all -- we're all just in it for the USD 

Oh I want bitcoins. But I can have moarrrr if I wait!

yes, i know you and i are not the pigs getting slaughtered right now. i just don't understand why so many people bought them if they were just gonna sell them off like this in two days' time haha. this is ridiculous panic selling right now.

[Frozenlock]

Traders gonna trade.

Now I'm waiting for the inevitable rebound and re-crash.

[arepo]

Traders gonna trade.

Now I'm waiting for the inevitable rebound and re-crash.

some serious volatility going on right now...

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approx. 15% in 1 min? this. is. bitcoin.

[Frozenlock]

1min chart? Isn't that a little too noisy? Unless you like to trade often... 

[arepo]

1min chart? Isn't that a little too noisy? Unless you like to trade often... 

it's completely useless for analysis, i was just trying to show the volatility. i was a little late with the screen shot, it was more like 15% in 20 seconds. combination of jumpy traders, gox lag, and a thin ask side. all hail bitcoin

[Frozenlock]

All hail Bitcoin!

It took 2 crashes, but now I understand when one should just stay put on the sideline.

I'm happy I learned. 

[arepo]

1min chart? Isn't that a little too noisy? Unless you like to trade often...  

it's completely useless for analysis ...

i just realized this isn't exactly true...

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the other reason i was looking at that scale is because i've been shorting the hell out of this panic with leverage. caught the top and bottom twice for about 40% returns in an hour.

the same patterns exist on all price scales...

--arepo

[Frozenlock]

Interesting, where do you short BTCs? And what are the fees?

[arepo]

Interesting, where do you short BTCs? And what are the fees?

bitfinex has been good to me so far. does anyone know of any negative news associated with the service? i've been really wary with brokerages because i got burned in the bitcoinica fiasco, but there haven't been any red flags thus far.

as for fees, they're minimal. interest on positions is good too, because bitfinex has a lenders market inside of the platform, so people compete with each other for rates and they are therefore fairly priced by a market mechanism.

[ElectricMucus]

Interesting, where do you short BTCs? And what are the fees?

bitfinex has been good to me so far. does anyone know of any negative news associated with the service? i've been really wary with brokerages because i got burned in the bitcoinica fiasco, but there haven't been any red flags thus far.

as for fees, they're minimal. interest on positions is good too, because bitfinex has a lenders market inside of the platform, so people compete with each other for rates and they are therefore fairly priced by a market mechanism.

I'm still avoiding it. Bitcoinica was enough bucket shopping for me...

[arepo]

I'm still avoiding it. Bitcoinica was enough bucket shopping for me...

yeah, ive been profiting off of the volatility since $130 but it's not my money until i can take all of it out 

[arepo]

another (small) wave down now, but support at $120 should hold, just consolidating inside the bounds of the leg down.

[arepo]

another (small) wave down now, but support at $120 should hold, just consolidating inside the bounds of the leg down.

again, forgive me for the small timescale (15-min) -- im swing-trading.

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-===-

this is how you know an indicator is calibrated well -- perfect bounce off of the 50-line, micro-term bearish.

[michaelGedi]

well, if I'd got home in time I would've done some trading on the 120 bounce... I walked in just as it was on it's way up!

Glad I sold most yesterday ~$155 !


What's this battle going on at $140 now? Anyone think it will hold?

[arepo]

well, if I'd got home in time I would've done some trading on the 120 bounce... I walked in just as it was on it's way up!

Glad I sold most yesterday ~$155 !


What's this battle going on at $140 now? Anyone think it will hold?

i didn't 'get out' until things went way sour this morning. then i opened a short

but im not sure what you're asking, exactly. also, from the data i'm looking at right now, this is still a critical moment, and it's going to be hard to make any projections until the price breaks out of this consolidation. that being said, we'll likely break under $140 again before any new trend appears, just in the course of consolidation.

anyone else have a hunch?

[arepo]

well, if I'd got home in time I would've done some trading on the 120 bounce... I walked in just as it was on it's way up!

Glad I sold most yesterday ~$155 !


What's this battle going on at $140 now? Anyone think it will hold?

the questions right now are really: will $120 hold if we break out downwards? and if so, how long will this consolidation last before we resume the bull trend?

a break below $120 will indicate a bear market in the short-term, at least.

[Frozenlock]

anyone else have a hunch?

Down.