Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections

[arepo]

anyone else have a hunch?

Down. 

i think so too, but the $120 floor might just hold. that would be incredibly bullish mid-term -- we had to let off some steam but there are a lot of buyers, still.

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[arepo]

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sweet dead cat bounce, bro

[Miz4r]

Question is, do the sellers still have enough ammo left to bring the price down to ~$120 again?

[ElectricMucus]

Question is, do the sellers still have enough ammo left to bring the price down to ~$120 again?

I don't think there is a strict distinction between buyers and sellers. These things (also) happen because people panic, not (only) because people want to manipulate the price.

[arepo]

Question is, do the sellers still have enough ammo left to bring the price down to ~$120 again?

we'll see... the picture is forming. another triangle? i won't be so quick to make any bold claims, but im going to test my methods again. based on some measurements, i've come up with breakout in 90 +/- 60 minutes.

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no claims about direction, i'm just trying to determine how precise these kinds of measurements are after last night's experiment.

--arepo

[edited for significant figures -- 90 is rounded to tens, so error must be too]

[michaelGedi]

well, if I'd got home in time I would've done some trading on the 120 bounce... I walked in just as it was on it's way up!

Glad I sold most yesterday ~$155 !


What's this battle going on at $140 now? Anyone think it will hold?

i didn't 'get out' until things went way sour this morning. then i opened a short

but im not sure what you're asking, exactly. also, from the data i'm looking at right now, this is still a critical moment, and it's going to be hard to make any projections until the price breaks out of this consolidation. that being said, we'll likely break under $140 again before any new trend appears, just in the course of consolidation.

anyone else have a hunch?

good work on the short

yes I thought this seemed to be a critical moment and another turning point as it consolidates.

My question was kind of related to the following: If the talk is to be believed then the drop through 140 today would perhaps be in a large part to do with manipulators (I haven't seen evidence and I wasn't watching the charts at the time but I wouldn't discount it). So, that would perhaps imply that the fairly quick bounce back to ~$140 meant that's where the true market sentiment lies as a support? This is uneducated speculation on my part, but that's why I was wondering about the current resting at around $140.

Also trying to decide on a short term re-entry point, hence asking for other opinions. But it's not a good time to decide it seems. That said I'm still feeling mildy bullish after looking at google trends, hearing gox queue and fiat news and hearing the "china overtakes US on bitcoin client downloads" news today.

time will tell.

Thanks

[arepo]

good work on the short

yes I thought this seemed to be a critical moment and another turning point as it consolidates.

My question was kind of related to the following: If the talk is to be believed then the drop through 140 today would perhaps be in a large part to do with manipulators (I haven't seen evidence and I wasn't watching the charts at the time but I wouldn't discount it). So, that would perhaps imply that the fairly quick bounce back to ~$140 meant that's where the true market sentiment lies as a support? This is uneducated speculation on my part, but that's why I was wondering about the current resting at around $140.

Also trying to decide on a short term re-entry point, hence asking for other opinions. But it's not a good time to decide it seems. That said I'm still feeling mildy bullish after looking at google trends, hearing gox queue and fiat news and hearing the "china overtakes US on bitcoin client downloads" news today.

time will tell.

Thanks

there are probably a few large players who attempt to 'manipulate' the market, but their actions are as useful as an eagle's wings to a hurricane. we're butterflies, they're birds of prey

what i mean to say is -- a single manipulator acting alone doesn't make money, it's only the 'pigs' who panic sell that make the manipulator money. that being said, Mr M didn't cause the market crash today, weak hands did.

for the short-term, if $120 holds, worst case we may enter into a period of sideways consolidation around this price point, but down seems far-fetched. the cool thing about bitcoin -- especially now -- is that the price doesn't go down unless there's serious selling, because deflation is kicking in. sideways consolidation is bullish in the bitcoin world!

if $120 doesn't hold, well, that is a scary situation. the not-cool thing about bitcoin is that most hands are weak hands (daytraders, other speculators), who are -- as was observed today -- alternately greedy, and panicky, and are always very manipulable.

oh well.

--arepo

[Frozenlock]

I hope $120 will be tested soon... I like the excitement, but I would like to go to bed eventually.

[wobber]

I hope $120 will be tested soon... I like the excitement, but I would like to go to bed eventually.

Do you really think it will go lower?

[arepo]

I hope $120 will be tested soon... I like the excitement, but I would like to go to bed eventually.

breakout happened on schedule, but i don't think we're gonna make it to $120, which is short-term bullish. some consolidation to follow.


anyway -- still daytrading i need to go to bed soon, too, it's been a long day. but for now:

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double bottom?

--arepo

[Frozenlock]

No, I want a double bottom at $120! 

[arepo]

No, I want a double bottom at $120! 

the market intentionally minimizes your profits.

in other words, not only does it not care what you want, if it knows what you want, you won't get it

[gizmoh]

one word at this time: Capitulation

[arepo]

one word at this time: Capitulation

yeah notice the large volume:

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this looks even more like a 'double bottom' than my first call. volume is comparable.

--arepo

[Frozenlock]

Gna... I don't know, seems to me the first drop was to $120.
We didn't re-test it.

[Frozenlock]

Something like this?

[gizmoh]

Indeed the trend is not looking good, its seems like a slow decline with bounces, i'm afraid the wall at 121-120 many not hold long.

[arepo]

Something like this?

still possible, though i assess unlikely from the following:
 
bears lose ammo with every bounce, that is, bounces on high volume are 'exhausting' to the trend.

also, the two bottoms are too symmetric. i haven't noted in this thread, but this pattern should look familiar (see action after first crash to $50). the bottoms of the bounces are almost equal, and their volumes are almost equal.

in other words -- for falsifiability -- if this bounce had significantly lower volume, or did not reach as significantly close to $120, then your model would have better chances.

try to use your bullish intuition, too -- flip the picture upside-down, does it look bearish to you? (double top)

only time will tell...

--arepo

edit: not saying we can't still go down from here, but i think the most bearish situation would be a period of consolidation around this critical resistance before another significant leg down.

[arepo]

first, let's ask, why the crash?

take a look at a chart i posted yesterday, the William's %R (oscillator):

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it's clear that the market was overbought in both the mid-term (yellow) and the short-term (green). the selling pressure from being short-term overbought pushed us to the black trendline i drew -- the selling pressure from being mid-term overbought pushed us past it.

but something else apparently happened today -- can anyone confirm this?

There was a massive, well orchestrated sale on silk road, sort of like a Black Friday of the sorts if you'd want to compare the magnitude of volume which was in operation for the past 48 hours, it just ended today and hence the sell-offs have already started. Most of the vendors are selling off their btc slowly, others not as slow.

if this is the case, then price will recover sharply as soon as the selling pressure tapers, because a huge 'unscheduled' sell-off pushes a market extremely oversold.

i suspect that new traders played an important role as well, possibly panic selling after buying into the overzealous rally (panic and greed in the same week!).

let's look at a chart? (1-month 6-hour scale)

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Chaikin Money Flow no longer parabolic (good), but is linear and positive, with a positive slope. this is a bullish picture.

As for the MACD, i suspect that many new traders may have been trading on this chart exactly -- the 6-hour MACD! the panic selling started immediately after we saw a bearish crossover there.

for balance to my bullishness, 2-hour MACD shows a double-top bearish picture, with a very bearish zero-line crossover.

i hope $120 holds, for bitcoin's sake.

--arepo

[Frozenlock]

Tsss, so doom and gloom.
Let us at least touch $120, will you? 

But I admit that 5k @ $121 and 5k @ $120 isn't that much.
So much tension in the air! Weeeeee!