[Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6 ordered (Closed)

[RoelVB]

I'm in doubt.
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.

But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!

[1715536659]

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[SebastianJu]

I'm in doubt.
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.

But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!

Not if you dont find a special way to mine. The diffi is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is exponentially too. Thats not a good sign.

[SebastianJu]

After crawling through pm's in hours half of the members got back to me. 3829 Chips want to be kept and 22086 REfund. 30085 have to claim still.

Could be that he have to merge with zefir to get a full batch. In any case 2 batches are ready to be refunded in case yifu opens the refund form.

I hope the remaining buyers are getting back to me, probably it wouldnt be fun to read what they write when they come back and find their missed chance. But i sent everyone a pm. I will send those buyers an email too soon to remember.

[RoelVB]

I'm in doubt.
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.

But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!

Not if you dont find a special way to mine. The diffi is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is exponentially too. Thats not a good sign.

Could you help me out there? What percentage?

[a2offrb]

I'm in doubt.
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.

But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!

Not if you dont find a special way to mine. The diffi is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is exponentially too. Thats not a good sign.

Could you help me out there? What percentage?

If you are asking about rising difficulty percentage, then it is about 30-35% every about 13 days(75-85 %/month).
Also difficulty rising percentage growing all the time while BitFury devices has gone online(atleast 107 ghash,https://ghash.io), Avalon delivered some chips(i think at least 25T) and BFL seems to get something out, new Asic manufacturers are going in before end of 2013 (November,October,December). Currently in January at least BitBurner 20 will use more power that get bitcoins(http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/acb725f391).

[SebastianJu]

I meant the percentage the difficulty is rising in average the last 30 days. It went from 46% to 71% to 94% to 110%. Normal exponential rising would be a percent number, thats it. But we have rising percent numbers on top.

I'm in doubt.
I got the BTC I invested very cheap. So if I get the BTC back I've invested in the chip and 50% of the money invested in a Bitburners I would be even already because of the current BTC rate.

But like Roy, I'm actually not looking for profit, I'm just in it for fun.
I would be satisfied if I just get a ROI. And correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the rising difficulty this should be possible, right?!

Not if you dont find a special way to mine. The diffi is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is exponentially too. Thats not a good sign.

Could you help me out there? What percentage?

[voxelot]

I know now that marto74 is full of small open source devs that don't really want a refund but would rather keep their small amount of chips to play with.  I have a small buy in his order... probably batch 6 I think.

Moving on to more legit companies like Hashfast and Cointerra that give real names and address to their employees.  I am hosting babyjets and terrahashs for group buy in shares on them.

Buy some shares with your Yufi refund.. or hope to like me.

Regards

Edit...

I do not speak on behalf of the marto74 group buy... there is not much convo in there but I do not know their opinion.

[RoelVB]

I meant the percentage the difficulty is rising in average the last 30 days. It went from 46% to 71% to 94% to 110%. Normal exponential rising would be a percent number, thats it. But we have rising percent numbers on top.

My bad, if I read your message again its clear that it's about the percentage of the difficulty.
Just a case of dyslexia.

[southerngentuk]

I have not replied yet.. I have been away for 4 days and am trying to catch up with events.

Am I right in the following

1. It has been suggested chip batches may be refunded, but not defiantly and no time line for how long to refund (like batch 3).
2. Further hold up on chips, no reason, no time line on delivery.

If chips where ready to ship I would keep them.

If chips are expected in 6 weeks + , I would like a refund.

It would be great to have a little more incite on whats going on.  If i have missed something let me know..

[Stack]

After crawling through pm's in hours half of the members got back to me. 3829 Chips want to be kept and 22086 REfund. 30085 have to claim still.

Could be that he have to merge with zefir to get a full batch. In any case 2 batches are ready to be refunded in case yifu opens the refund form.

I hope the remaining buyers are getting back to me, probably it wouldnt be fun to read what they write when they come back and find their missed chance. But i sent everyone a pm. I will send those buyers an email too soon to remember.

You could just apply the same response ratio to the remaining unanswered chips, if they still have not responded in time

[Tursk]

I have not replied yet.. I have been away for 4 days and am trying to catch up with events.

Am I right in the following

1. It has been suggested chip batches may be refunded, but not defiantly and no time line for how long to refund (like batch 3).
2. Further hold up on chips, no reason, no time line on delivery.

If chips where ready to ship I would keep them.

If chips are expected in 6 weeks + , I would like a refund.

It would be great to have a little more incite on whats going on.  If i have missed something let me know..

Yifu had one good day last Thursday and actually responded to people.
No timelines for possible chip refunds of course (this is Avalon) but he
finally handled all Avalon miners batch#3 refunds in one day, which
had been on limbo for months.

There have been no news of anybody getting chips since zefir's batch #2.
Yifu practically revealed Avalon has no chips to deliver as he now favors
refunds over more waiting and/or new chips with cheaper price.

[itod]

After crawling through pm's in hours half of the members got back to me. 3829 Chips want to be kept and 22086 REfund. 30085 have to claim still.

Could be that he have to merge with zefir to get a full batch. In any case 2 batches are ready to be refunded in case yifu opens the refund form.

I hope the remaining buyers are getting back to me, probably it wouldnt be fun to read what they write when they come back and find their missed chance. But i sent everyone a pm. I will send those buyers an email too soon to remember.

You could just apply the same response ratio to the remaining unanswered chips, if they still have not responded in time

Yes, statistically its enormous sample, and this ratio (3829 / 25915 = 14.77% want to receive the chips) will almost certainly apply to total number of chips. Problem is that 15% of 56.000 chips is 8.400 chips, so not enough for a whole batch. If batches #2 - #6 get the refund and all wanted chips from these groups go to batch #1, there is still 1.600 chips in batch #1 that nobody wants. That is what Sebastian was talking about. We have to together buy those chips, 1.600 of 46.000 is not much = 3.5%, so everybody should accept 3.5% less than full return to buy those chips with this money. We can donate those chips to somebody (burnin, BKKcoins?) or put them on the lottery like before and one lucky bastard can take them all. And we all get refunds!

Edit:
On second thought it would be most fair to leave those 1.600 chips to Sebastian for some compensation to him. This is my official vote what to do with them.

[Roy Badami]

Yifu practically revealed Avalon has no chips to deliver as he now favors
refunds over more waiting and/or new chips with cheaper price.

That was not how I read YiFu's words, unless he's posted something new that I've missed.  Of various options that the community presented to him, such as refunds, partial refunds, extra chips or upgrades to next gen chips, he said his prefered option was refunds for those who want them.

I don't think he ever said he wants people to refund - just that he prefers that option to other forms of compensation that the community had proposed.

roy

[Roy Badami]

Yes, statistically its enormous sample, and this ratio (3829 / 25915 = 14.77% want to receive the chips) will almost certainly apply to total number of chips.

It's not a representative sample, though.  The kind of people who check this forum daily (or more!) may have very different wishes from the kind of people who are less interested in following progress.  So the proportion for those other buyers might be very different (either more or less than 14.7%).

roy

[Tursk]

SebastianJu announced on German thread he had opened refund ticket for batches #3 to #5:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=187663.msg3050577#msg3050577

Then came Avalon newsletter where Yifu is accepting refunds only for chip orders made before June 1st:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269950.msg3051519#msg3051519

At last something is happening

[itod]

At last something is happening

And that something is very bad news IMHO. Not to double post:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269950.msg3051942#msg3051942

[SebastianJu]

Oh the news... that means we could refund batches 1-4 but not batch 5 and batch 6...

[pajak666]

Oh the news... that means we could refund batches 1-4 but not batch 5 and batch 6...

Why not push yifu to give make all refunds that are late, that means all other batches also.

[wingcom]

How many people have confirmed that they want a refund? This might not be a problem at all?

[Tursk]

Oh the news... that means we could refund batches 1-4 but not batch 5 and batch 6...

Yifu says it was a typo. The data is now June 15th. Woohoo, batch #5 can be refunded too!