ASICMINER Auction: 50 Block Erupter Blades CHECK OP FOR PAYMENT

[WackyWilly]

Hi all, I'm new to mining, want to get started. What I am confused about is this: why would I bid (up to BTC 50 or maybe even above) for this ASICMINER product (at 10Gh/s) whereas the butterfly at 5Gh/s goes for USD 274,- in their webshop?

Yes - I am already aware that BFL has LARGE back orders. But is that the ONLY reason why these ASICMINER blades are way more expensive?
Or is there something else I am missing (technically speaking, as said - I'm a newbie)?

Any help appreciated!
Thanks!

It is simply because ASICs are shipping en masse these days, and daylight is burning fast on making money back. 5 GH/s today is not 5GH/s in a few months when BFL or others get your order out the door.

I did some very basic calculations a couple of weeks back, based on rought estimates, and came to a number that said that by August, your hashrate is worth between 1/10 and 1/12 of what it is today. In other words, what you are effectively buying from BFL is 480-500 MH/s, not 5 GH/s. This is because the hashrate is expected to rise dramatically over the next months.

500 MH/s is roughly the equivalent of a good GPU today, which also goes for around $250-$300.

Hope this clarifies :-)

.b

Ok, thanks for pointing that out to me. In other words - it is a race to the top for those people that are mining BTC.

Thinking about your remarks, I also realize that this ASICMINER currently on bid, will reduce to about 1/10th  1/12th of 10Gh/s. So it will be sitting at maximum at a comparative rate of 1Gh/s in August. Somewhere else in the thread, I read that a price at 70BTC would mean that it would take about 4 months to recuperate the total investment (with unchanged difficulty). That means approximately in August. (If the final bidding price is lower than 70BTC, the break-even point would be reached a bit earlier, of course)

In other words - it will take several months to break even. By that time the hashing power of the miner is way down. Hm. That makes me ponder... would it really generate enough BTC's by that time? ....  

(Economically speaking, there are also opportunity costs IF.. the BTC would remain upwards trending - the opportunity costs being the not-realized profit should I've kept those 50 BTC in pocket). Hm...

Any thoughts?

[John (John K.)]

Hi all, I'm new to mining, want to get started. What I am confused about is this: why would I bid (up to BTC 50 or maybe even above) for this ASICMINER product (at 10Gh/s) whereas the butterfly at 5Gh/s goes for USD 274,- in their webshop?

Yes - I am already aware that BFL has LARGE back orders. But is that the ONLY reason why these ASICMINER blades are way more expensive?
Or is there something else I am missing (technically speaking, as said - I'm a newbie)?

Any help appreciated!
Thanks!

The most important thing about Bitcoin mining is time. Say "time" to yourself about a thousand times and you'll have a good idea why people are bidding like mad for a 10GH/s board.

As you may or may not know, as time goes on those GH/s are less and less effective. Things are even worse now because we are on the cusp of thousands of ASIC's being released into the wild. When this happens its will get harder and harder to mine. Remember the network only wants to give the Bitcoin reward every 10 minutes, and as more people add power the network will adjust to make this very hard.

Everything is a risk, if BFL starts to pump out 100 orders a day tomorrow, then everyone here just lost big time. Everyone bidding here wants 10GH/s before BFL ships. They are hoping the board pays for itself and more in 3-4 months otherwise the difficulty will just increase so far they have no chance getting a ROI.

If BFL does not ship thousands of chips over the next 2 months then everyone here may be a winner.

By bidding here we are effectivly shorting BFL over the next several months.

Also, if you just order a 5GH/s from BFL now, you would be better off buying a GPU and mining right now. That queue is killer and people waiting for 5GH/s will get them by December and they will just get a door stop.

I have some BFL device on order. The thing is, even if they don't break even soon after I get them, I will still run them purely for passion. Life is more than money and at these consumption leves I couldn't care less ;-)

Reminds me why I run a CPU miner on solo once awhile.  

Okay guys, please discuss this later when the auction ends.  I'm trying to run an auction here.

[puexam]

About 1 hour left - get your shiny miners before it's too late! *gets out microphone and boombox  *

Oke.
1@42

[drlatino999]

Okay guys, please discuss this later when the auction ends.   I'm trying to run an auction here.

Don't worry, I have your back.

Lowest Bid still with Pinwheel, 2@41

[John (John K.)]

Name	Quantity	Price (฿)	Remaining	BTC Count	Updated to post 603	<- seldom updated
Caesium	5	45	45	225
kibblesnbits	1	45	44	45
samyrp	2	45	42	90
Hiroaki	1	44.5	41	44.5
ok	1	44	40	44
Fury!	1	44	39	44
desired_username	4	44	35	176
Lucky - Luciano	1	43.5	34	43.5
win07	1	43.5	33	43.5
lan787	1	43	32	43
LainZ	1	43	31	43
tccd	2	43	29	86
starsoccer9	1	43	28	43
Hiroaki	1	42.5	27	42.5
psjw4450	4	42.5	23	170
caoxg	1	42.5	22	42.5
BitMagnet	1	42.5	21	42.5
hashman	3	42	18	126
Omen1855	1	42	17	42
simtel12	1	42	16	42
cchan	1	42	15	42
puexam	1	42	14	42
CJPOLO	1	41.5	13	41.5
FlappySocks	1	41.5	12	41.5
Hiroaki	1	41.5	11	41.5
Omen1855	1	41.5	10	41.5
slastar	2	41.5	8	83
Ajay	2	41.5	6	83
drawingthesun	1	41.5	5	41.5
drlatino999	2	41.5	3	83
Aajo	1	41	2	41
Pinwheel	2	41	0	82
Total blades:	50		Total BTC:	2141.5
Auction thread (Bid here!)

Googledoc (thanks Vjain!) :
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiYcEqkgyjc_dEM5Z19DdUxzV3VBVjlvcVBQTFNOYmc#gid=0

Estimated Countdown (courtesy of JaredR26)

Timer removed. End time: 2013-04-29+13:25:32

[drawingthesun]

Hi all, I'm new to mining, want to get started. What I am confused about is this: why would I bid (up to BTC 50 or maybe even above) for this ASICMINER product (at 10Gh/s) whereas the butterfly at 5Gh/s goes for USD 274,- in their webshop?

Yes - I am already aware that BFL has LARGE back orders. But is that the ONLY reason why these ASICMINER blades are way more expensive?
Or is there something else I am missing (technically speaking, as said - I'm a newbie)?

Any help appreciated!
Thanks!

The most important thing about Bitcoin mining is time. Say "time" to yourself about a thousand times and you'll have a good idea why people are bidding like mad for a 10GH/s board.

As you may or may not know, as time goes on those GH/s are less and less effective. Things are even worse now because we are on the cusp of thousands of ASIC's being released into the wild. When this happens its will get harder and harder to mine. Remember the network only wants to give the Bitcoin reward every 10 minutes, and as more people add power the network will adjust to make this very hard.

Everything is a risk, if BFL starts to pump out 100 orders a day tomorrow, then everyone here just lost big time. Everyone bidding here wants 10GH/s before BFL ships. They are hoping the board pays for itself and more in 3-4 months otherwise the difficulty will just increase so far they have no chance getting a ROI.

If BFL does not ship thousands of chips over the next 2 months then everyone here may be a winner.

By bidding here we are effectivly shorting BFL over the next several months.

Also, if you just order a 5GH/s from BFL now, you would be better off buying a GPU and mining right now. That queue is killer and people waiting for 5GH/s will get them by December and they will just get a door stop.

I have some BFL device on order. The thing is, even if they don't break even soon after I get them, I will still run them purely for passion. Life is more than money and at these consumption leves I couldn't care less ;-)

Oh certainly this is true, the tragic thing about BFL is that they took so long. However they actually have ASIC and things are going to change so much when they ship.

Although I still like to point out realities to people new to this wild wild west we call Bitcoin. I prefer as few people to get burned as possible.

BTW desired_username, your not too far back in the queue are you?

[John (John K.)]

Okay guys, please discuss this later when the auction ends.   I'm trying to run an auction here.

Don't worry, I have your back.

Lowest Bid still with Pinwheel, 2@41

Confirmed, thanks again!

[drawingthesun]

Okay guys, please discuss this later when the auction ends.  I'm trying to run an auction here.

Sorry!

[drawingthesun]

1@42

[John (John K.)]

Caesium   5   45
kibblesnbits   1   45
samyrp   2   45
Hiroaki   1   44.5
ok   1   44
Fury!   1   44
desired_username   4   44
Lucky - Luciano   1   43.5
win07   1   43.5
lan787   1   43
LainZ   1   43
tccd   2   43
starsoccer9   1   43
Hiroaki   1   42.5
psjw4450   4   42.5
caoxg   1   42.5
BitMagnet   1   42.5
hashman   3   42
Omen1855   1   42
simtel12   1   42
cchan   1   42
puexam   1   42
drawingthesun   1   42
CJPOLO   1   41.5
FlappySocks   1   41.5
Hiroaki   1   41.5
Omen1855   1   41.5
slastar   2   41.5
Ajay   2   41.5
drlatino999   2   41.5
Aajo   1   41
Pinwheel   2   41

[FlappySocks]

1 @ 42.5

[Pinwheel]

About 1 hour left - get your shiny miners before it's too late! *gets out microphone and boombox  *

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwI_nG1IbWg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ixRvDkNzYc

[DiabloD3]

We're probably going to see this cross 50 BTC. Bid harder guys.

[John (John K.)]

Caesium   5   45
kibblesnbits   1   45
samyrp   2   45
Hiroaki   1   44.5
ok   1   44
Fury!   1   44
desired_username   4   44
Lucky - Luciano   1   43.5
win07   1   43.5
lan787   1   43
LainZ   1   43
tccd   2   43
starsoccer9   1   43
Hiroaki   1   42.5
psjw4450   4   42.5
caoxg   1   42.5
BitMagnet   1   42.5
FlappySocks   1   42.5
hashman   3   42
Omen1855   1   42
simtel12   1   42
cchan   1   42
puexam   1   42
drawingthesun   1   42
CJPOLO   1   41.5
Hiroaki   1   41.5
Omen1855   1   41.5
slastar   2   41.5
Ajay   2   41.5
drlatino999   2   41.5
Aajo   1   41
Pinwheel   2   41

[swaits]

1@45

[michelet]

John,

is the excel updated more often than the forum? or the same?
thanks

[John (John K.)]

John,

is the excel updated more often than the forum? or the same?
thanks

The excel is more updated.

[John (John K.)]

Name   Quantity   Price (฿)
Caesium   5   45
kibblesnbits   1   45
samyrp   2   45
swaits   1   45
Hiroaki   1   44.5
ok   1   44
Fury!   1   44
desired_username   4   44
Lucky - Luciano   1   43.5
win07   1   43.5
lan787   1   43
LainZ   1   43
tccd   2   43
starsoccer9   1   43
Hiroaki   1   42.5
psjw4450   4   42.5
caoxg   1   42.5
BitMagnet   1   42.5
FlappySocks   1   42.5
hashman   3   42
Omen1855   1   42
simtel12   1   42
cchan   1   42
puexam   1   42
drawingthesun   1   42
CJPOLO   1   41.5
Hiroaki   1   41.5
Omen1855   1   41.5
slastar   2   41.5
Ajay   2   41.5
drlatino999   2   41.5
Aajo   1   41
Pinwheel   1   41

[nebulus]

Nice to see that there are going to be many owners of these vs just one. Seems like we are going to have people hashing all over the place which means BTC network is going go be even more spread out. Muahahhaaha!

Be an owner!  

I've got plenty of other expenses.  

[John (John K.)]

Name	Quantity	Price (฿)	Remaining	BTC Count	Updated to post 638	<- seldom updated
Caesium	5	45	45	225
kibblesnbits	1	45	44	45
samyrp	2	45	42	90
swaits	1	45	41	45
Hiroaki	1	44.5	40	44.5
ok	1	44	39	44
Fury!	1	44	38	44
desired_username	4	44	34	176
Lucky - Luciano	1	43.5	33	43.5
win07	1	43.5	32	43.5
lan787	1	43	31	43
LainZ	1	43	30	43
tccd	2	43	28	86
starsoccer9	1	43	27	43
Hiroaki	1	42.5	26	42.5
psjw4450	4	42.5	22	170
caoxg	1	42.5	21	42.5
BitMagnet	1	42.5	20	42.5
FlappySocks	1	42.5	19	42.5
hashman	3	42	16	126
Omen1855	1	42	15	42
simtel12	1	42	14	42
cchan	1	42	13	42
puexam	1	42	12	42
drawingthesun	1	42	11	42
CJPOLO	1	41.5	10	41.5
Hiroaki	1	41.5	9	41.5
Omen1855	1	41.5	8	41.5
slastar	2	41.5	6	83
Ajay	2	41.5	4	83
drlatino999	2	41.5	2	83
Aajo	1	41	1	41
Pinwheel	1	41	0	41
Total blades:	50		Total BTC:	2147
Auction thread (Bid here!)

Googledoc (thanks Vjain!) :
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiYcEqkgyjc_dEM5Z19DdUxzV3VBVjlvcVBQTFNOYmc#gid=0

Estimated Countdown (courtesy of JaredR26)

Timer removed. End time: 2013-04-29+13:25:32