Should I cancel my BFL 4/2/2013 Order?

[k9quaint]

Try and sell it.  People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.

Unlikely to meet ROI?

Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million.  Now, difficulty is just over 10 million.  That's a 5.5x increase.

And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC.  Now, the price is $140.  That's a 23x increase.

So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.

BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time.  BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.

And if the BTC exchange rate goes up to $1400 it would be a 230x increase in expected return on investment.
If the BTC exchange rate drops to $14, it would only be a 2.3 times increase in expected return.
Nobody knows what the exchange rate will be in the future. That is why people should talk about expected BTC mined from BFL products, not USD expected from BFL mining. BTC expected from BFL mining is only 18% of what it was in Oct 2012.

[bonker]

BFL = Big Foolish Lumps

Cancel the order, buy GPUs and mine Litecoin. ASICs will kill BTC anyway. ASICs will inevitably cause the centralisation of control and kill BTC just like it did fiat.

[Frizz23]

Ordered this almost a month ago. Looks like they're shipping but what will the ROI be assuming I get the monitor the earliest which will be July/August?

It's the 60GHash for $1300

They are not. They are only shipping Jalapenos.

Singles, Little Single and Mini Rigs are still in (re)design phase (aka "now in final stage development" in BFLspeak).


Your expected earnings:

I'll just post the basic results here, the full analysis is here: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/04/913-asic-choices-asic-earnings-17-april.html

Previous post in series here.

4. Conclusions
Earnings estimates are again a bit better than previous estimates - all shipping is a bit delayed compared to my previous best guess, I hadn't counted on ASICMiner dropping their hashrate back to 7Thps. extending the forecast to August (still assuming no batch four from Avalon ) shows that an Avalon that cost 75BTC and started mining on 23rd May should almost have paid for itself by August - about a 2.5 month ROI.

[Syke]

BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time.  BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.

That would only be true if no other ASICs were brought online by any other manufacturer. Fat chance of that. Lots of ASICs are going to make the difficulty skyrocket long before BFL ships a bunch of Singles.

[SgtSpike]

Try and sell it.  People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.

Unlikely to meet ROI?

Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million.  Now, difficulty is just over 10 million.  That's a 5.5x increase.

And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC.  Now, the price is $140.  That's a 23x increase.

So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.

BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time.  BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.

And if the BTC exchange rate goes up to $1400 it would be a 230x increase in expected return on investment.
If the BTC exchange rate drops to $14, it would only be a 2.3 times increase in expected return.
Nobody knows what the exchange rate will be in the future. That is why people should talk about expected BTC mined from BFL products, not USD expected from BFL mining. BTC expected from BFL mining is only 18% of what it was in Oct 2012.

More like 21%, but yes, I agree.  What's your point?  BFL never made any guarantees regarding how profitable their device would be.  They never made any guarantees regarding difficulty or a certain number of BTC generated per day.  They've always offered refunds to anyone who asked for one.  And it has always been the choice of the customer to risk their money on a pre-order of promises.

Back to the original quote I was responding to, which stated that "People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI."  This person was clearly speaking of current prices (in USD) for ASICs.  My response is that the notion that ASICs would not pay for themselves if ordered today is completely absurd, because it would take 1.75 million Single SC's shipped out before a BFL ASIC would become unprofitable to mine with at current prices.  So somehow, FlappySocks thinks that BFL (or another ASIC vendor) is going to ship out 1.75 million units before a device ordered today would fully pay for itself.  I'm just saying that that idea is flat-out wrong, unless FlappySocks expects the USD price of BTC to drop drastically.  Looking from a USD perspective, a unit ordered today would most certainly pay for itself as long as the BTC price doesn't move downward.

[SgtSpike]

BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time.  BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.

That would only be true if no other ASICs were brought online by any other manufacturer. Fat chance of that. Lots of ASICs are going to make the difficulty skyrocket long before BFL ships a bunch of Singles.

1.75 million 60GH/s ASICs?  I highly doubt it.

[conv3rsion]

BFL = Big Foolish Lumps

Cancel the order, buy GPUs and mine Litecoin. ASICs will kill BTC anyway. ASICs will inevitably cause the centralisation of control and kill BTC just like it did fiat.

You realize that there are probably 50-100k people between the ones who have ordered from BFL, and the ones that are part of a chip buy from Avalon?

Asics are not causing centralization.

[k9quaint]

Try and sell it.  People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.

Unlikely to meet ROI?

Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million.  Now, difficulty is just over 10 million.  That's a 5.5x increase.

And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC.  Now, the price is $140.  That's a 23x increase.

So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.

BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time.  BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.

And if the BTC exchange rate goes up to $1400 it would be a 230x increase in expected return on investment.
If the BTC exchange rate drops to $14, it would only be a 2.3 times increase in expected return.
Nobody knows what the exchange rate will be in the future. That is why people should talk about expected BTC mined from BFL products, not USD expected from BFL mining. BTC expected from BFL mining is only 18% of what it was in Oct 2012.

More like 21%, but yes, I agree.  What's your point?  BFL never made any guarantees regarding how profitable their device would be.  They never made any guarantees regarding difficulty or a certain number of BTC generated per day.  They've always offered refunds to anyone who asked for one.  And it has always been the choice of the customer to risk their money on a pre-order of promises.

The risks buying BFL hardware have been and still are:
1) the delivery date
2) the specs
3) the BTC/USD exchange rate
4) the network hashrate
5) reliability of the unit

Ordering a BFL unit (assuming it was delivered anywhere near spec and within 6 months) would probably be profitable. It probably would not be "wildly profitable" and there might be a better use of funds (Avalon, etc).

Back to the original quote I was responding to, which stated that "People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI."  This person was clearly speaking of current prices (in USD) for ASICs.  My response is that the notion that ASICs would not pay for themselves if ordered today is completely absurd, because it would take 1.75 million Single SC's shipped out before a BFL ASIC would become unprofitable to mine with at current prices.  So somehow, FlappySocks thinks that BFL (or another ASIC vendor) is going to ship out 1.75 million units before a device ordered today would fully pay for itself.  I'm just saying that that idea is flat-out wrong, unless FlappySocks expects the USD price of BTC to drop drastically.  Looking from a USD perspective, a unit ordered today would most certainly pay for itself as long as the BTC price doesn't move downward.

The nature of most mining solutions (excluding electricity costs) is that they eventually pay for themselves. Even GPUs bought today might eventually pay for themselves. If people are paying "crazy money", then they are not paying list price. I think that poster was saying that the units ordered today are unlikely to meet the bubbly expectations of ROI that people currently have.  Some combination of delays, spec miss, btc price, and hash rate rise will deflate those expectations dramatically.

[jorgebuck]

BFL = Big Foolish Lumps

Cancel the order, buy GPUs and mine Litecoin. ASICs will kill BTC anyway. ASICs will inevitably cause the centralisation of control and kill BTC just like it did fiat.

You realize that there are probably 50-100k people between the ones who have ordered from BFL, and the ones that are part of a chip buy from Avalon?

Asics are not causing centralization.

Unless a larger portion of any of these orders are all people mining at the same pool

[Syke]

1.75 million 60GH/s ASICs?  I highly doubt it.

Let's take BFL at their word, they can ship 400 units a day. An order placed today will likely take 6 months to arrive. That's 73,000 units, roughly 50 times the current network size. So when that Single is delivered, it'll make .05 btc/day. But it costs 18 btc today. That puts the ROI at roughly 1 year after the 6 months for delivery. 18 months from today just to break even and get the BTC back you previously spent on it.

I'll make you an even better deal. Send me 18 btc today and in 1 year I'll give you 20 btc. That's 11% profit for you. Way better than buying a Single today.

[01BTC10]

Sold mine : http://www.ebay.com/itm/121096385733?ssPageName=STRK:MESOX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1561.l2649
 
Might be risky, only time will tell.

[P_Shep]

Try and sell it.  People are paying crazy money for ASICs that are unlikely to meet ROI.

Unlikely to meet ROI?

Let's see... on June 23, 2012, when preorders were opened up for BFL ASICs, difficulty was around 1.8 million.  Now, difficulty is just over 10 million.  That's a 5.5x increase.

And yet, on June 23, 2012, the expected return on investment would have been calculated using $6 as the price per BTC.  Now, the price is $140.  That's a 23x increase.

So it's actually 4 times as profitable now as it was when preorders first opened up.

BFL miners will be quite profitable for quite some time.  BFL would have to ship around 1.75 MILLION Single SC's in order for it to be unprofitable to run a Single SC at $0.08/kwh.

I also don't get people worried about ROI...

I did calculations, and up to a difficulty of 500M, a single will pay itself off within a year. And that assuming BTC=$150... that's reasonably likely to increase.

[Inaba]

Only in the Bitcoin world do people have a fit when they don't have a 3 month 100% ROI.  Meanwhile, everywhere else people are falling over themselves to have a 24 months 100% ROI.

[Rampion]

Only in the Bitcoin world do people have a fit when they don't have a 3 month 100% ROI.  Meanwhile, everywhere else people are falling over themselves to have a 24 months 100% ROI.

That's because with current difficult projections, what will not ROI in 3 months will not ROI at all.

Out of bitcoin world, first moments are the most difficult because revenue is lower, but you expect your revenue and profits to grow over time. In BTC mining it's the opposite. You really don't understand this or you are just trolling?

[Inaba]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.
 

[Syke]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.

Break even after 2-3 years is horrible returns.

[Pentel]

Break even after 2-3 years is horrible returns.

Not really, investment in any product can take years to get any profit.

[Nemesis]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.

Break even after 2-3 years is horrible returns.

Are you a customer? If so , get your refund and leave others to make their own decision.

If not? stfu and get off. Ppl can deal with their financial investment without you being their "advisor"

 

[Rampion]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.

Based on past history an April order will be likely delivered in 2014, when difficulty will be very high. Sorry, I'm basing this assumption on facts: continuous delays, huge backlog, etc. Organofcorti's calculations arrive only to July this year, and still you can see below how he forecasted a x10 increase in just three months. If that trends continues.... Well, good luck with having a ROI at 1,000x.

Another fact is that you are not guaranteeing any delivery date. That's a huge risk in mining business, because as you acknowledged if you don't get your mining unit early enough so you can recoup your costs in the very first weeks, you won't ROI at all. And BTW, if you trust organofcorti's calculations you should know he wrote literally:

Notice that the BFL Single SC at $2500 / 50 Ghps (currently 19.2 btc / 50 Ghps, or 0.38 btc / Ghps) is quite profitable, right up to the end of May. It would need about twenty days mining to pay for itself, and once the 0.38btc / Ghps threshold is reached will return 200% of the purchase cost within the next seventy days. Based on this estimate, if I could be guaranteed delivery by the end of May I'd purchase a BFL Single SC.

Source: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.es/2013/04/915-fair-price-for-asic-miner.html

But, the point is you cannot guarantee delivery by the end of May - true? Maybe to him, to try to get some nice publicity, but not for the rest of us.

I am a BFL customer too, so I'm not enjoying this situation.

[Syke]

Are you a customer? If so , get your refund and leave others to make their own decision.

If not? stfu and get off. Ppl can deal with their financial investment without you being their "advisor"

Why, is this your thread?

The OP asked for opinions, so I'm giving them. Get a refund and toss your money into the stock market and make 10% per year rather than wait 2-3 years for a chance to break even. Or if you really do believe in bitcoins, buy some and make a killing in a couple weeks.