Real14Hero
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July 04, 2018, 07:08:14 PM |
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And I think the psychological factor and player's bankroll to stand for a bad streak is also important: a missjudgement like a gamblers fallacy can put you out of the game before you can achieve at least that 1% HE
if you quickly skim through the player's wagered and profit/loss, the ones that keep it not hidden,you can see that way too many players have loss figures much bigger than the estimated HE of 1% means that either the strategy is not optimal or the "meaningful" bets went wrong for example: you can bet a million 1 satoshi bets at 50% chance and then place one 0.01 bet and lose it all and too many players believe that if they just had ten reds in a row,they simply must win the next one-gambler's fallacy number one the main cause of so many tears and scam accusations ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Well that is the meaning of house edge. It takes into the account of overall larger figure and gived you an estimate of the profit or loss and the profit is usually +- %15 from the mathematical house edge. All because if whales loosing or winning in a few goes and then taking away their winning out or loosing it all immediately. Its all a game of chance and in extreme unlucky conditions it may also occur that the house might get bankrupt.
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adaseb
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1723
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July 04, 2018, 07:51:42 PM |
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And I think the psychological factor and player's bankroll to stand for a bad streak is also important: a missjudgement like a gamblers fallacy can put you out of the game before you can achieve at least that 1% HE
if you quickly skim through the player's wagered and profit/loss, the ones that keep it not hidden,you can see that way too many players have loss figures much bigger than the estimated HE of 1% means that either the strategy is not optimal or the "meaningful" bets went wrong for example: you can bet a million 1 satoshi bets at 50% chance and then place one 0.01 bet and lose it all and too many players believe that if they just had ten reds in a row,they simply must win the next one-gambler's fallacy number one the main cause of so many tears and scam accusations ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) But I am pretty sure that most people who lose on Primedice they lose the exact same way in a physical casino. Most of the customers are usually new and don't have experience. What do most do? They go to a casino for the first time and have no idea how to play any of the advanced games like Blackjack or Roulette so they just play slots. They don't know that slots has a crazy high house edge and they most likely put in a little bit of money and lose 100% of it. Even if they win, they will probably put it in more machines and they will end up with $0 anyways. With dice its no different. They basically play on 50/50 and when they lose they double their bet. And they think "What are the chances of losing 10 times in a row?" and at first it works fine but after maybe a few days they run into a huge losing streaks and they end up getting completely cleaned out.
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game-protect
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 04, 2018, 08:00:12 PM |
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And I think the psychological factor and player's bankroll to stand for a bad streak is also important: a missjudgement like a gamblers fallacy can put you out of the game before you can achieve at least that 1% HE
if you quickly skim through the player's wagered and profit/loss, the ones that keep it not hidden,you can see that way too many players have loss figures much bigger than the estimated HE of 1% means that either the strategy is not optimal or the "meaningful" bets went wrong for example: you can bet a million 1 satoshi bets at 50% chance and then place one 0.01 bet and lose it all and too many players believe that if they just had ten reds in a row,they simply must win the next one-gambler's fallacy number one the main cause of so many tears and scam accusations ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Sounds like they have no bankroll management to be able to make a huge number of bets and had to stop after they catched a negative variance streak. Because the more bets you make, the closer you will come to the 1% HE.
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carlfebz2
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 04, 2018, 08:07:23 PM |
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And I think the psychological factor and player's bankroll to stand for a bad streak is also important: a missjudgement like a gamblers fallacy can put you out of the game before you can achieve at least that 1% HE
if you quickly skim through the player's wagered and profit/loss, the ones that keep it not hidden,you can see that way too many players have loss figures much bigger than the estimated HE of 1% means that either the strategy is not optimal or the "meaningful" bets went wrong for example: you can bet a million 1 satoshi bets at 50% chance and then place one 0.01 bet and lose it all and too many players believe that if they just had ten reds in a row,they simply must win the next one-gambler's fallacy number one the main cause of so many tears and scam accusations ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Actually remembering those newbie days when i do play dice where i do believe on those behavior where you would wait up for a certain number or lose roll and if it reach out you do bet win on the next one. On my case i do make YOLO most of the time and lose up if im arent lucky enough but talking about the ratio of win and lose then its quite common that loss stats would stand out which isnt surprising. Gambling could make you cry if those money you do use to play on do came from loans. ![Cry](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cry.gif)
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Xylber
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 04, 2018, 11:51:26 PM |
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And I think the psychological factor and player's bankroll to stand for a bad streak is also important: a missjudgement like a gamblers fallacy can put you out of the game before you can achieve at least that 1% HE
if you quickly skim through the player's wagered and profit/loss, the ones that keep it not hidden,you can see that way too many players have loss figures much bigger than the estimated HE of 1% means that either the strategy is not optimal or the "meaningful" bets went wrong for example: you can bet a million 1 satoshi bets at 50% chance and then place one 0.01 bet and lose it all and too many players believe that if they just had ten reds in a row,they simply must win the next one-gambler's fallacy number one the main cause of so many tears and scam accusations ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Exactly my thought, and being honest, I think we have all been in that situation at least once ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
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adaseb
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1723
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July 05, 2018, 09:13:56 AM |
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And I think the psychological factor and player's bankroll to stand for a bad streak is also important: a missjudgement like a gamblers fallacy can put you out of the game before you can achieve at least that 1% HE
if you quickly skim through the player's wagered and profit/loss, the ones that keep it not hidden,you can see that way too many players have loss figures much bigger than the estimated HE of 1% means that either the strategy is not optimal or the "meaningful" bets went wrong for example: you can bet a million 1 satoshi bets at 50% chance and then place one 0.01 bet and lose it all and too many players believe that if they just had ten reds in a row,they simply must win the next one-gambler's fallacy number one the main cause of so many tears and scam accusations ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Sounds like they have no bankroll management to be able to make a huge number of bets and had to stop after they catched a negative variance streak. Because the more bets you make, the closer you will come to the 1% HE. This is true for maybe a bot but humans are crazy unpredictable. Even if a player plays for a long time and has a HE of 1%, they will most likely switch their bet values around and basically get more larger losses and less small wins. Basically a good example is someone who is betting like 1 satoshi on 50/50 and they find that luck is on their side, and so the next bet is like 100x larger which results in a loss. So their balance is much smaller but their win/lose streak is still within the house edge.
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veleten
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1106
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July 06, 2018, 01:26:39 PM |
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And I think the psychological factor and player's bankroll to stand for a bad streak is also important: a missjudgement like a gamblers fallacy can put you out of the game before you can achieve at least that 1% HE
if you quickly skim through the player's wagered and profit/loss, the ones that keep it not hidden,you can see that way too many players have loss figures much bigger than the estimated HE of 1% means that either the strategy is not optimal or the "meaningful" bets went wrong for example: you can bet a million 1 satoshi bets at 50% chance and then place one 0.01 bet and lose it all and too many players believe that if they just had ten reds in a row,they simply must win the next one-gambler's fallacy number one the main cause of so many tears and scam accusations ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Sounds like they have no bankroll management to be able to make a huge number of bets and had to stop after they catched a negative variance streak. Because the more bets you make, the closer you will come to the 1% HE. This is true for maybe a bot but humans are crazy unpredictable. Even if a player plays for a long time and has a HE of 1%, they will most likely switch their bet values around and basically get more larger losses and less small wins. Basically a good example is someone who is betting like 1 satoshi on 50/50 and they find that luck is on their side, and so the next bet is like 100x larger which results in a loss. So their balance is much smaller but their win/lose streak is still within the house edge. it is amazing how people gamble without knowing the basics sometimes when you go to a bank and deposit,you tend to read about it,read the contracts,fineprint etc. but in gambling and politics people think that they will get lucky ,come on we can't have the same crappy politicians 5 times in a row- the next try is going to be a winner for sure ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) if all of the gamblers are educated about bank management,gambling basic strategies and do not chase losses or go full retard IMHO,the casinos would have had much less profit,but on the other hand,the player's base would be larger it seems like the same group of people is gambling at every single casino I'm registered
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BTCevo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1008
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July 07, 2018, 02:46:54 PM |
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And I think the psychological factor and player's bankroll to stand for a bad streak is also important: a missjudgement like a gamblers fallacy can put you out of the game before you can achieve at least that 1% HE
if you quickly skim through the player's wagered and profit/loss, the ones that keep it not hidden,you can see that way too many players have loss figures much bigger than the estimated HE of 1% means that either the strategy is not optimal or the "meaningful" bets went wrong for example: you can bet a million 1 satoshi bets at 50% chance and then place one 0.01 bet and lose it all and too many players believe that if they just had ten reds in a row,they simply must win the next one-gambler's fallacy number one the main cause of so many tears and scam accusations ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Sounds like they have no bankroll management to be able to make a huge number of bets and had to stop after they catched a negative variance streak. Because the more bets you make, the closer you will come to the 1% HE. This is true for maybe a bot but humans are crazy unpredictable. Even if a player plays for a long time and has a HE of 1%, they will most likely switch their bet values around and basically get more larger losses and less small wins. Basically a good example is someone who is betting like 1 satoshi on 50/50 and they find that luck is on their side, and so the next bet is like 100x larger which results in a loss. So their balance is much smaller but their win/lose streak is still within the house edge. Yes, somehow how edge is affect your bet result because you run too long bot in which all gambling games is just the same. That is why most of gambler using martingale strategy variances to outcome the result, sometime with a small bet can with some huge multiplier and it depends your luck as well whether you are going to hit or not. But overall if you played too long you will always end up badly
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adaseb
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1723
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July 07, 2018, 09:21:58 PM |
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Check out these wins by High Roller ForeverNEver! ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FaVff3D8.png&t=663&c=zwYJ6re_JFWPDw) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FzRWaHt5.png&t=663&c=ywUEpswzitX50A) Yes I see he is listed on the Weekly hall of fame. However its hard to tell if his method is actually making him money. Judging by these bets he might be on a losing streak. He made his Total Profit Private unfortunately. His Totatted wagered is over 170 BTC and he has done over 66K bets. However most of his bets are losses. So its hard to tell if he is using the same strategy or if he is changing variables from time to time. I tried betting like this in the past. Basically put it on 99x and I got like 200 losses and then I bet like 0.01 BTC hoping that the next 100 rolls would be a winner and almost lost an entire BTC at the end but finally got a winner and was back at BE. So these strategies don't always work, but judging by his bet size, he is probably some large whale.
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Xylber
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 08, 2018, 10:23:51 PM |
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game-protect
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July 09, 2018, 02:19:31 PM |
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This user in question was linked by fingerprint to a user who defrauded PD out of a significant sum of money. Given that, their account had a flag on it before they even made a deposit. We asked for ID and the user provided an identity we believed wasn’t theirs. We wanted to have a phone call with them to try and clear this up and after many delays they agreed. It was clear they had found a non-involved girl talk to us who didn’t seem to know anything about primedice or bitcoin. That violated our terms but obviously that isn't why we held the withdrawal, we held it for the reason originally stated.
I'd like to stop this right here and make clear that this is not a matter of money but rather a matter of principle. I'm happy to donate at minimum the funds involved in this claim to a charity of the community's choosing. The trust of this community is not something we take for granted and is why we elected to post here to further explain this unusual situation.
Was this a false promise and you put it in your pocket?
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Xylber
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 09, 2018, 11:18:59 PM |
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New giveaway:Penalty Shootout Challenge!Ends: 16/07/18 @ Midday (12pm) GMT ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.primedice.com%2Fuploads%2Fmonthly_2018_07%2FGoooooal.thumb.png.aac4aa8dbd92c21980d5e87f29630611.png&t=663&c=LZDyVyorv3LNxg) As I'm sure most of you are aware, we are amidst the action of the world cup, and in true spirit, we are bringing you all an amazing opportunity to participate in the Primedice penalty shootouts! To score you must skilfully evade the goal keeper by shooting the dice into one of the top corners, which is marked by 99x payout. Penalty shootouts consist of 5 shots, so you are required to successfully score all of those 5. All players who achieve the challenge in the next 7 days, will get a share in the prize pool! There is no limit to the amount of winners, and the more players who get involved the higher the prize pool! So if you get more players involved, then you win more! Possible winning shots: Top left corner - Roll Under 1 (99x Payout) Top right corner - Roll Over 98.99 (99x Payout) Requirements- Make 5 winning bets with a 99x multiplier. (Not required consecutively!)
- Minimum bet is 100 satoshi or 1,200 ether or 10,000 litoshi.
- 1 valid entry per person.
- Bets must have been made after the commencement of this promotion.
- 10+ forum post count.
Prize Pools (based on amount of unique players) - Minimum prize pool: 0.01 BTC
- If over 30 participants: 0.03 BTC
- If over 40 participants: 0.05 BTC
- If over 50 participants: 0.08 BTC
How to EnterRespond to this topic on our official forum: https://forum.primedice.com/topic/32361-penalty-shootout-challenge/Feel free to discuss the promotion here, but all entries need to be posted on the topic provided in the above link.
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eldrin
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 13, 2018, 04:11:09 PM |
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The Hero for the Week promotion is once again upon us! If you are on the weekly leaderboard for most wagered as of the 20th of July at 23:59 CET, you will receive a generous bonus and additionally earn yourself 15% Rakeback for the following week.For questions or suggestions, please post here.
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eldrin
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 15, 2018, 04:44:31 PM |
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The leaderboard this week is looking incredibly spicy 😝 Well done to those players taking home big profits!!![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FDiFOPGfVQAAWBxI.jpg&t=663&c=lxGJIAm948uFRQ)
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Radiante
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 280
Merit: 15
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July 15, 2018, 11:27:35 PM |
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And of course, Congratulations to France for winning the World Cup!![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpli.io%2FzJlkM.png&t=663&c=YLAqJdVG5RyGtQ)
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game-protect
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 16, 2018, 01:26:55 PM |
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This user in question was linked by fingerprint to a user who defrauded PD out of a significant sum of money. Given that, their account had a flag on it before they even made a deposit. We asked for ID and the user provided an identity we believed wasn’t theirs. We wanted to have a phone call with them to try and clear this up and after many delays they agreed. It was clear they had found a non-involved girl talk to us who didn’t seem to know anything about primedice or bitcoin. That violated our terms but obviously that isn't why we held the withdrawal, we held it for the reason originally stated.
I'd like to stop this right here and make clear that this is not a matter of money but rather a matter of principle. I'm happy to donate at minimum the funds involved in this claim to a charity of the community's choosing. The trust of this community is not something we take for granted and is why we elected to post here to further explain this unusual situation.
What happened with the confiscated 34 BTC? Did you put it in your pocket instead of donation?
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Moonmanmun
Jr. Member
Offline
Activity: 243
Merit: 9
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 17, 2018, 12:50:52 AM |
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This user in question was linked by fingerprint to a user who defrauded PD out of a significant sum of money. Given that, their account had a flag on it before they even made a deposit. We asked for ID and the user provided an identity we believed wasn’t theirs. We wanted to have a phone call with them to try and clear this up and after many delays they agreed. It was clear they had found a non-involved girl talk to us who didn’t seem to know anything about primedice or bitcoin. That violated our terms but obviously that isn't why we held the withdrawal, we held it for the reason originally stated.
I'd like to stop this right here and make clear that this is not a matter of money but rather a matter of principle. I'm happy to donate at minimum the funds involved in this claim to a charity of the community's choosing. The trust of this community is not something we take for granted and is why we elected to post here to further explain this unusual situation.
What happened with the confiscated 34 BTC? Did you put it in your pocket instead of donation? get a life lame-protect ![Shocked](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/shocked.gif)
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alexrossi
Legendary
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Activity: 3794
Merit: 1742
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
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July 17, 2018, 12:19:34 PM |
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And I think the psychological factor and player's bankroll to stand for a bad streak is also important: a missjudgement like a gamblers fallacy can put you out of the game before you can achieve at least that 1% HE
if you quickly skim through the player's wagered and profit/loss, the ones that keep it not hidden,you can see that way too many players have loss figures much bigger than the estimated HE of 1% means that either the strategy is not optimal or the "meaningful" bets went wrong for example: you can bet a million 1 satoshi bets at 50% chance and then place one 0.01 bet and lose it all and too many players believe that if they just had ten reds in a row,they simply must win the next one-gambler's fallacy number one the main cause of so many tears and scam accusations ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) I see a lot of players that just don't have an exit strategy, especially in case of multiple win... ("now I can win moar!!"), and so I suppose there is a lot of potential profit completely lost. Generally speaking, the common mindset that i see is: "my exit strategy is when my balance goes to zero"
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game-protect
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 17, 2018, 12:27:38 PM |
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I see a lot of players that just don't have an exit strategy, especially in case of multiple win... ("now I can win moar!!"), and so I suppose there is a lot of potential profit completely lost.
Generally speaking, the common mindset that i see is: "my exit strategy is when my balance goes to zero"
Gamblers want to gamble and not to exit! ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) And stopping to play after balance is zero has nothing to do with strategy, because if you have no money you simply can not continue to play.
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