I hope the coins will trade for above 1 USD within 2 years of beta
Beta development is in April and final release in Q3-4 CY18
I've now had a look at the basic numbers and you can read then here if you are unfamiliar.
Total number of LIVE tokens possible = 79 928 407
Of which, 28% go to the team and foundation, 10% presale, 60% crowdsale and the last 2% bounty.
So, if all tokens were sold, we can say 72% went to the public, which is 57 548 453
At the moment, 53% of the crowdsale target is met, but I am unsure if this includes the whitelist, which I assume is presale.
Assuming it is crowdsale only, then just 31.8% of tokens remain for sale overall. It seems likely that at least half of this amount should be sold before 14.02.18
But if we are conservative and say just another 5% are sold, then we can say the total number of tokens will be 61 385 017
Now if all were sold, we would want to know roughly what the market cap would be at open. Hardcap is 5M from the token sale, which I assume to include presale and crowdsale, i.e. 70%
Since the 70% is the 5M raised, then we can expect dilution by the remaining 30%, so approximately (0.7)(5000000), i.e. $3,500,000 is perhaps a more truthful initial market cap.
If you want to look at it in terms of strictly the full number of tokens achievable by hardcap, then that is 5000000/79928407, i.e. 0.063USD per LIVE
If we are generous and see the price per token purely in terms of the crowd sale and presale (i.e. 70%), then we should consider 5000000/55949884.9, i.e. 0.089 per LIVE
Worst case, we can then divide the number of tokens at the fully diluted level to give us our bottomline, which is if all tokens are sold, then crowdsale tokens are worth 3500000/79928407 i.e. about .044, assuming all of the team and foundation tokens are dumped on release. Of course they will not, but it does give the prospective buyer some basic idea of the matter at hand, for the worst case scenario.
My guess is the team and foundation will wait until there is some rise in the token value before selling. The foundation has slated the 14% for marketing, software development and legal issues. The team will naturally want to see token value rise for several reasons before they sell much. We can expect the marketing to kick in and a big lift off the bottom before significant developer dumps, provided the team is cohesive.
If less than the full 60% crowdsale is sold, then the effect of dumping by team or foundation will be greater.
Please think about these numbers as only some sketches and thoughts, nothing more. To me, the value of these tokens will rise from the price at release because this sort of product has a natural and large market provided the product works well, i.e. the interaction is good in all technical respects and does not interfere with the human interaction, which is then the next most important aspect.
It could expand more into types of interaction, e.g. strip poker, online pole dancing. This is a niche product as it stands. That is a strength going in, as it means the project can get off the ground in 2018.
