thehun
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May 13, 2014, 10:06:52 PM |
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Branny, when do you see getting leverage/loan? A year from now? Less or More? Just curious in the planning on that...
I've been talking to a local lender about a 70% LTV @ 6%-7% interest, they are quite positive on it. I believe if I can show 2-3 months at 100% occupancy (After renting properties out) we'll be able to get it. This would put us at 4-6mo from now. If we get levered, then we'd have another $300k+ to work with. Leverage WILL decrease the dividend amount, however IMO it is quite worth it. All together we will have less than $350k spent for monthly net income of a little shy of $60k/yr and $200k+ in extra equity. Loan costs on $300k will be around $3k a month, of which $1.75k goes to interest, the rest is principal reduction. This of course would half the effective dividend, but we'd be able to roughly double our portfolio size, which then would result in another approximate $5,000 of effective income pre-leverage which we then can redo over and over again. Additionally , our estimated equity/year gain is $20k-$28k/yr right now. This essentially offsets the loan interest when we leverage our purchases. I think that's a very sound plan. Some leverage is definitely necessary if we want to grow. However, isn't a 6-7% interest a bit steep for a loan of this type? Just asking, I thought financing costs in the US were lower than that. In any case, if we look at the current NAV of $555000 and add to it 100BTC=$44000 it adds up to about 600k. Compare this to the current market cap of ฿924.3757 (~$437691.89) and you will see why the stock is a very good value at this point.
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AcoinL.L.C
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May 14, 2014, 02:21:55 AM |
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^^Agreed, is currently undervalued
While taking on some debt is perfectly fine, building the business entirely through debt is not good practice. To keep purchasing via leverage may expand quickly, but what if there is a dry spout and you can't get occupants for some properties? How will the (massive, interest will add up quickly) monthly payments?
Just keep going with organic growth, your business is expanding nicely as is.
My .02BTC
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tempestb
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May 14, 2014, 02:38:46 AM |
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It's a $300,000 loan on a fixed 7%. That's like a normal home mortgage in the States. (Though interest rates are about half that these days.) Can use the existing mortgage payments to pay the loan, you buy new properties with the additional money to grow equity. Then use those payments to leverage again. In the meantime you flip some houses and what-not for additional revenue. Plus, housing values should rise which will gain more profit vs just collecting rent payments.
There is risk of another total housing market meltdown, but so long as the initial properties can handle the loan payments with a buffer for a risky tenant or two, you have no issues. A total worst case scenario is you liquidate properties to pay the loan off.
I say you leverage, when you need you to.
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1D7JwRnoungL1YQy7sJMsqmA8BHkPcKGDJ We mine as we dream... Alone
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Branny (OP)
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May 14, 2014, 03:03:31 AM |
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Branny, when do you see getting leverage/loan? A year from now? Less or More? Just curious in the planning on that...
I've been talking to a local lender about a 70% LTV @ 6%-7% interest, they are quite positive on it. I believe if I can show 2-3 months at 100% occupancy (After renting properties out) we'll be able to get it. This would put us at 4-6mo from now. If we get levered, then we'd have another $300k+ to work with. Leverage WILL decrease the dividend amount, however IMO it is quite worth it. All together we will have less than $350k spent for monthly net income of a little shy of $60k/yr and $200k+ in extra equity. Loan costs on $300k will be around $3k a month, of which $1.75k goes to interest, the rest is principal reduction. This of course would half the effective dividend, but we'd be able to roughly double our portfolio size, which then would result in another approximate $5,000 of effective income pre-leverage which we then can redo over and over again. Additionally , our estimated equity/year gain is $20k-$28k/yr right now. This essentially offsets the loan interest when we leverage our purchases. I think that's a very sound plan. Some leverage is definitely necessary if we want to grow. However, isn't a 6-7% interest a bit steep for a loan of this type? Just asking, I thought financing costs in the US were lower than that. In any case, if we look at the current NAV of $555000 and add to it 100BTC=$44000 it adds up to about 600k. Compare this to the current market cap of ฿924.3757 (~$437691.89) and you will see why the stock is a very good value at this point. 6%-7% is a bit high, but not uncommon. The loan is going to our LLC which means there's very little personal liability for myself (Even though i'm a grantor) or potential shareholders. It's much easier to walk away from a LLC loan, so you end up paying for the higher bank to the risk via additional interest. Commercial loans typically are 1%-2% over traditional house loans.
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Branny (OP)
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May 14, 2014, 03:12:11 AM |
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^^Agreed, is currently undervalued
While taking on some debt is perfectly fine, building the business entirely through debt is not good practice. To keep purchasing via leverage may expand quickly, but what if there is a dry spout and you can't get occupants for some properties? How will the (massive, interest will add up quickly) monthly payments?
Just keep going with organic growth, your business is expanding nicely as is.
My .02BTC
Organic growth in our case means we stop growing, period. It's far better for us to leverage (Not to the brim though). At 70% LTV , 6%-7% and using our method of savings/investing, there would have to be a massive US real estate failure for us to stop making payments. Additionally we're aiming for a $20k+ rolling savings reserve which help us through dry times.
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fourhundredapm
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May 14, 2014, 03:54:01 AM |
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Branny, what are you doing incase the SEC comes knocking? From what I understand, you'll be in a bit of trouble, no?
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Branny (OP)
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May 14, 2014, 04:16:16 AM |
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Branny, what are you doing incase the SEC comes knocking? From what I understand, you'll be in a bit of trouble, no?
At some point in the future we'll be able to release our business structure/investment documents which will provide some transparency on the SEC issue, but at this time I haven't been able to get the full documentation yet (available for release). I really wouldn't have much interest in starting a company that the SEC could shut down at a whim, so since day 1 we've been making sure that we do our best with what is available for compliance. It also bodes well for us that investment goes from havelock>hk investment company>US company.
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AcoinL.L.C
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May 14, 2014, 06:24:11 AM |
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Not entirely organic growth, taking on debt is fine. Running a business that survives by continually taking out new debt is unappealing to me.
Keep up the good numbers
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Branny (OP)
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May 14, 2014, 12:58:37 PM |
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Not entirely organic growth, taking on debt is fine.
I agree, debt is a great way to increase your company value. If my courses in Corporate Finance taught me anything it was that you should always have some debt, so you can increase your value! Loving the updates Branny, it's looking really good, and the recent uptick in prices was long awaited/well deserved. Shouldnt be more than a few months before we hit 0.01 I think. The company is still worth more than the market cap! ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I think as long as we continue to grow, provide value and have solid cashflow we could see a true company value of 2x or 3x of our NAV which would benefit shareholders even more. I've spent some time looking at other similar projects that have underwent various equity financing rounds and they usually funded at $3m-$4m and only expected around a 8% ROI when it was all said and done. Right now we expect an average 16.4% ROI based solely on the income of the properties, equity is another 3.5% to 5% YEARLY, with another one-off equity increase of 30% per property due to us buying distressed properties then fixing them up. As another note, the tenants of W. Mill really do like it and are considering purchasing, if we did that route, we'd have a one-off profit of over $50k.
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Branny (OP)
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May 17, 2014, 02:38:40 PM |
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Closed on Walnut yesterday, started doing the drywall (Myself) on the property. Tired of sitting in a office most of the day and figured I could get some done while the rest of the crew finishes up Mill. Managed to get the 1st step of the drywall done.
Lots of plumbing leaks in the basement, I think it might be advantageous to re-plumb with CPVC , everything right now is galvanized which is literally the devil. CPVC is extraordinarily cheap and lasts forever.
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ABitInterested
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May 17, 2014, 04:06:45 PM |
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Congratulations on another successful purchase.
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floatyfish
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May 17, 2014, 06:20:35 PM |
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Branny, this might be out of your league right now, but have you thought about purchasing homes in Detroit? There's a severe rental crunch going on now, and it might be worth looking into renting some houses out to fix them up. For example, http://www.buildingdetroit.org/Listing/Details/381969/4722-Avery is right by Wayne State, and wouldn't require a huge amount of fixing up. Since it's right by Wayne State it could be rented out to students and/or people who want to live near an up and coming area.
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If you feel like donating: 1NtgJf4znCsA5GJDCbqtowHL2143WyqLkC
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Branny (OP)
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May 17, 2014, 06:41:49 PM |
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Branny, this might be out of your league right now, but have you thought about purchasing homes in Detroit? There's a severe rental crunch going on now, and it might be worth looking into renting some houses out to fix them up. For example, http://www.buildingdetroit.org/Listing/Details/381969/4722-Avery is right by Wayne State, and wouldn't require a huge amount of fixing up. Since it's right by Wayne State it could be rented out to students and/or people who want to live near an up and coming area. I'd have to find someone i really trust. median vacancy rate is something like 50% for the whole of Detroit. Management fees can also be killer when you're in a high turnover area due to the fact that *most* management companies make MORE money the higher the turnover is (Many charge 1/2 of first month's rent as a tenant finder fee) so if you have two tenants a year per property, that's 1/12th of a year's rent PLUS the management & exorbitant contractor fees. Scaling is something that is always on my mind, since there's only so many rentals we can have in Central Ohio. However the best option at this time IMO is to grow highly and then franchise the method of find-flip-rent AND running a pseudo-contractor/management company in house, as management and repairs/rehab are two killers for rental properties.
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DebitMe
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May 18, 2014, 04:23:14 PM |
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Branny, this might be out of your league right now, but have you thought about purchasing homes in Detroit? There's a severe rental crunch going on now, and it might be worth looking into renting some houses out to fix them up. For example, http://www.buildingdetroit.org/Listing/Details/381969/4722-Avery is right by Wayne State, and wouldn't require a huge amount of fixing up. Since it's right by Wayne State it could be rented out to students and/or people who want to live near an up and coming area. I'd have to find someone i really trust. median vacancy rate is something like 50% for the whole of Detroit. Management fees can also be killer when you're in a high turnover area due to the fact that *most* management companies make MORE money the higher the turnover is (Many charge 1/2 of first month's rent as a tenant finder fee) so if you have two tenants a year per property, that's 1/12th of a year's rent PLUS the management & exorbitant contractor fees. Scaling is something that is always on my mind, since there's only so many rentals we can have in Central Ohio. However the best option at this time IMO is to grow highly and then franchise the method of find-flip-rent AND running a pseudo-contractor/management company in house, as management and repairs/rehab are two killers for rental properties. I am not sure about Detroit, but are there any colleges around the Ohio area you would considering buying next to? I am sure you are more knowledgeable on this than I am, but it never hurts to throw in a quick opinion/some advice. My brother rented a place right next to campus in college. Little house, with a main floor and a downstairs, that the owner was able to lease out to 6 people at a time (every available room was converted to a bedroom and 4 shared 1 bathroom). They each paid $365 a month on a $70 to $80 thousand dollar house, which over 6 of them, would be about $2000 a month in rent. These tenants are at least tied in for 6 months (one semester) and probably 90% of the time, will sign for a year, and you will always have new tenants available and waiting. The main problem is upkeep, they are college students and have a knack for destroying things, but it is fairly easy enough to bill them for repairs and whatnot/take it out of their initial deposit. Just a thought as I started buying into your company and continue to grow my number of shares. Sounds like your doing really well and have a clear goal of where you would like to go. Keep it up!
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_mr_e
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May 18, 2014, 05:38:47 PM |
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I am just wondering what Branny and the other investors feel the price of btc rising quickly again would have on the price of this security? I feel like since all these houses are measured in USD, if we were to have another large bitcoin bubble then the value of these shares would drop substantially in price. This is currently stopping me from investing anything more then a very small amount (an amount that I normally would have kept in fiat). Do we also hold a large balance in btc? Does the company take it's rent proceeds and keep them in btc as to gain from an appreciating price, allowing us to purchase more housing? Also wondering how would this security continue to operate if the price of btc was to hit $0? Would it start paying out dividends in another coin? Would it collapse?
There are just a lot of difficult to measure variables when buying into a fiat security using your btc.
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thehun
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May 18, 2014, 05:53:17 PM |
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I am just wondering what Branny and the other investors feel the price of btc rising quickly again would have on the price of this security? I feel like since all these houses are measured in USD, if we were to have another large bitcoin bubble then the value of these shares would drop substantially in price. This is currently stopping me from investing anything more then a very small amount (an amount that I normally would have kept in fiat). Do we also hold a large balance in btc? Does the company take it's rent proceeds and keep them in btc as to gain from an appreciating price, allowing us to purchase more housing? Also wondering how would this security continue to operate if the price of btc was to hit $0? Would it start paying out dividends in another coin? Would it collapse?
There are just a lot of difficult to measure variables when buying into a fiat security using your btc.
As we have discussed several times before, in this venture BTC is an investment vehicle, not an investment in itself. If you believe there will be another BTC rally, your best bet would be to just buy and hodl as many BTCs as you can. If BTC value goes up, the logical thing to happen is a decrease in the value of the shares (in BTC terms, not USD), and the opposite if it goes up. If BTC collapses (disappears), we still have the company assets and we would have to find a new way of distributing profits. As we are investing in real estate here (not speculating in cryptocurrencies) we should hope Branny keeps most of the reserves in USD, not in BTC.
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_mr_e
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May 18, 2014, 06:41:16 PM |
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I am just wondering what Branny and the other investors feel the price of btc rising quickly again would have on the price of this security? I feel like since all these houses are measured in USD, if we were to have another large bitcoin bubble then the value of these shares would drop substantially in price. This is currently stopping me from investing anything more then a very small amount (an amount that I normally would have kept in fiat). Do we also hold a large balance in btc? Does the company take it's rent proceeds and keep them in btc as to gain from an appreciating price, allowing us to purchase more housing? Also wondering how would this security continue to operate if the price of btc was to hit $0? Would it start paying out dividends in another coin? Would it collapse?
There are just a lot of difficult to measure variables when buying into a fiat security using your btc.
As we have discussed several times before, in this venture BTC is an investment vehicle, not an investment in itself. If you believe there will be another BTC rally, your best bet would be to just buy and hodl as many BTCs as you can. If BTC value goes up, the logical thing to happen is a decrease in the value of the shares (in BTC terms, not USD), and the opposite if it goes up. If BTC collapses (disappears), we still have the company assets and we would have to find a new way of distributing profits. As we are investing in real estate here (not speculating in cryptocurrencies) we should hope Branny keeps most of the reserves in USD, not in BTC. Given this I am very surprised that the price has not stayed up at .75. Makes me think I should grab more haha.
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anasazi
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May 18, 2014, 08:57:52 PM |
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When can we expect our shares from Bitfunder to be available on Havelock? This has been brought up before, months ago. Also, can I assume accumulated dividends will be paid then?
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havelock
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May 18, 2014, 09:09:34 PM |
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When can we expect our shares from Bitfunder to be available on Havelock? This has been brought up before, months ago. Also, can I assume accumulated dividends will be paid then?
Email contact@havelockinvestments.com with the email you have an account with us. We will take a look at it.
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thehun
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May 19, 2014, 01:34:41 AM |
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I am just wondering what Branny and the other investors feel the price of btc rising quickly again would have on the price of this security? I feel like since all these houses are measured in USD, if we were to have another large bitcoin bubble then the value of these shares would drop substantially in price. This is currently stopping me from investing anything more then a very small amount (an amount that I normally would have kept in fiat). Do we also hold a large balance in btc? Does the company take it's rent proceeds and keep them in btc as to gain from an appreciating price, allowing us to purchase more housing? Also wondering how would this security continue to operate if the price of btc was to hit $0? Would it start paying out dividends in another coin? Would it collapse?
There are just a lot of difficult to measure variables when buying into a fiat security using your btc.
As we have discussed several times before, in this venture BTC is an investment vehicle, not an investment in itself. If you believe there will be another BTC rally, your best bet would be to just buy and hodl as many BTCs as you can. If BTC value goes up, the logical thing to happen is a decrease in the value of the shares (in BTC terms, not USD), and the opposite if it goes up. If BTC collapses (disappears), we still have the company assets and we would have to find a new way of distributing profits. As we are investing in real estate here (not speculating in cryptocurrencies) we should hope Branny keeps most of the reserves in USD, not in BTC. Given this I am very surprised that the price has not stayed up at .75. Makes me think I should grab more haha. I'm also buying more shares while the price is low. I guess it'll stay like this until all properties are rented and people start realizing the long-term potential (which is unusual in the short-term oriented BTC world).
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