ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[bernard75]

is it worth investing in ASIC? want to read your opinions

I wouldnt now, especially with the BTC rate and winter coming.

[1715004470]

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[freedomno1]

is it worth investing in ASIC? want to read your opinions

I wouldnt now, especially with the BTC rate and winter coming.

Winter does make coins a bit cheaper
I guess if your willing to hibernate for a long winter and wait for hash offered to match current prices then perhaps there is ROI if the exchange rate rises later.
Otherwise na.

[explorer]

What news?  Havelock is down to .10

[michaelGedi]

been waiting for this, was hoping to sell with the dump and pick up my shares back at 0.1... missed out big time

if there's any time to manipulate the price downwards before the prisma sales pile up and mining announcement then seems that was it

[explorer]

been waiting for this, was hoping to sell with the dump and pick up my shares back at 0.1... missed out big time

if there's any time to manipulate the price downwards before the prisma sales pile up and mining announcement then seems that was it

VERY thin book down to .01.  Manipulate away.  If the asks follow, i will help you mop them up 
I didn't expect this today.  Maybe tomorrow on no news, but not leading the first of the month, and a Wednesday to boot.  Could make for crazy fireworks, or just another day of no news... Normalcy bias leaves me leaning toward the no news again side.

[jimmothy]

Looks like ~500 shares were transferred to havelock before the dumping of ~500 shares.

I've noticed each dump recently has been after hundreds of shares are transferred to havelock.

My guess would be it's an IPO shareholder looking to get out or manipulate the already thin market.

[explorer]

Looks like ~500 shares were transferred to havelock before the dumping of ~500 shares.

I've noticed each dump recently has been after hundreds of shares are transferred to havelock.

My guess would be it's an IPO shareholder looking to get out or manipulate the already thin market.

29421 shares on HL.  12-14k last winter/spring.  How big are the ask walls going to be once things get rolling?

[kingcrimson]

There seems to be a lot of good news, but no confidence. 

[Bonam]

If this company was anything but Asicminer, and didn't have the history of the 2013 glory days behind it, everyone would have already cut and run and its shares would be worth zero. You can only trade on goodwill accumulated in the distant past for so long before it just doesn't matter any more. AM needs to deliver real results now. Fanboys remembering how they used to get giant dividends over a year ago is not gonna prop up the stock price much longer.

[freedomno1]

If this company was anything but Asicminer, and didn't have the history of the 2013 glory days behind it, everyone would have already cut and run and its shares would be worth zero. You can only trade on goodwill accumulated in the distant past for so long before it just doesn't matter any more. AM needs to deliver real results now. Fanboys remembering how they used to get giant dividends over a year ago is not gonna prop up the stock price much longer.

Pretty much goodwill has helped carried AM to this point with all the free advertising PR for it but it is diminishing over time
Progress is occurring smoothly but not for investors and the market is trading at that point now may as well call it the nadir where if nothing happens it just keeps dropping despite all the positive news.

So with you on that investors in a sense have waited long enough its time for some action.

[stompysteve]

looks like someone is still buying miners, most btc thats ever been sent to it was today edit:since late aug
https://blockchain.info/address/3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8

[dhenson]

looks like someone is still buying miners, most btc thats ever been sent to it was today edit:since late aug
https://blockchain.info/address/3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8

I thought we all agreed that was an Exchange wallet addy.  There has been no reason (that I've seen) to think it is in any way related to AM.

[stompysteve]

Pls delete

[jjdub7]

looks like someone is still buying miners, most btc thats ever been sent to it was today edit:since late aug
https://blockchain.info/address/3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8

I thought we all agreed that was an Exchange wallet addy.  There has been no reason (that I've seen) to think it is in any way related to AM.

Ive been looking into the wallets for a while, im pretty sure this address is where they clump all the sales to

I dont think they deal directly with an exchange but im pretty sure this is where their btc goes out
https://blockchain.info/address/19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV

this one is their btc reserve, every time the 3mk address doesnt have enough money when moving funds to 19i then they will pull some out of it
https://blockchain.info/address/12WVzVu5kNovXKS3vMfmm4knaK5T5bYfZn

Ill try to find more recent sale addresses and figure it out more

Steve, just for the record, I've seen your posts here and there and I think we're vibing on the same exact theory.

[stompysteve]

looks like someone is still buying miners, most btc thats ever been sent to it was today edit:since late aug
https://blockchain.info/address/3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8

I thought we all agreed that was an Exchange wallet addy.  There has been no reason (that I've seen) to think it is in any way related to AM.

Ive been looking into the wallets for a while, im pretty sure this address is where they clump all the sales to

I dont think they deal directly with an exchange but im pretty sure this is where their btc goes out
https://blockchain.info/address/19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV

this one is their btc reserve, every time the 3mk address doesnt have enough money when moving funds to 19i then they will pull some out of it
https://blockchain.info/address/12WVzVu5kNovXKS3vMfmm4knaK5T5bYfZn

Ill try to find more recent sale addresses and figure it out more

Steve, just for the record, I've seen your posts here and there and I think we're vibing on the same exact theory.

Can't remember your posts but not sure I agree with you on fc dumping btc, I'm pretty sure they just sell to a big buyer to fund new orders of chips miner pieces etc

[bitsalame]

I doubt that fc would be burning his own btc stash. That would be foolish.
1) A reasonable conjecture is to imagine a collusion of chinese miners doing so... the one who holds the breath longer under water wins the game.
Right now I bet that the US and European mining farms must be sweating like crazy.

If the prices are dumped to 100, many of them are gonna shut down or burn reserve funds like crazy (mining doesn't even cover the electric bill), while the Chinese won't get affected at all.
Why? Because some of them aren't even paying for electricity.

2) Another conjecture for the fall of the btc prices is that btc is a victim of its own success.
How so? Because there are too many merchants accepting bitcoins or processing it, but they don't keep those funds in bitcoins, they need fiat to operate and pay providers and employees, so they must dump their bitcoins to the market asap. The more I spend/sell bitcoins, the more the prices will fall.

3) And now my personal conjecture is: rich amateur people are playing with exchanges and they have no idea of what they are doing. They are following charts and attempting Technical Analysis because they think that is the holy grail of making money, and they get trapped into their own self-fulfilled prophecy... but they are too n00b to realize.
I think China is living their amateur time, they adopted it late, and they are making now the same mistakes we did in 2011. I am pretty sure that one of these three leading exchanges is following MtGox's path.

My bet: The fall of the prices will be spectacular, and its subsequent rise will be spectacular.

[dhenson]

We're in a transition phase. Historically there was no upside to being a bitcoin bear. Long speculation ruled as there weren't any mechanisms in place to short bitcoin.  Now there are two camps and the newly formed downward pressure will force bitcoin to adopt a more sane, sustainable market price.

I make no claims on knowing where that price will settle out only that it will take actual demand (growth) and not rampant speculation to sustain another price increase. 

We are in for a long boring winter with few buyers for mining equipment.  I see this causing AM to switch back to self mining on inexpensive efficient gen 4 chips in a slowly increasing/stagnant network.  With that will bring simple valuations for the share price as dividends will be predictable based on network hash-rate %.

I truly believe that our long wait for transparency is coming to an end.

[hdbuck]

+1

And i would add that the only thing reassuring my confidence in AM and regarding btc price is that they did not rush into top tier expensive technology nodes, which may be foolish, if not doomish for the competitors.

[gogxmagog]

wellllll
if btc price continues to fall and reaches a sane valuation, but AM preforms well despite this...we may see 2+ btc per share (which would be good for me, btc-wise)   

[vortex1878]

wellllll
if btc price continues to fall and reaches a sane valuation, but AM preforms well despite this...we may see 2+ btc per share (which would be good for me, btc-wise)   

How did you calculate the 2+ BTC per share?