ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[hdbuck]

crossposting..

yea, just sharing my .xls file with exact weekly prices from havelock and stamp.. needed to do it properly by myself, no offense JonnyBitc0in

-> http://sharesend.com/grfu6ryf

so everybody has updated data

[hdbuck]

Any div predictions? I'm guessing ~0.015 btc/share

here are my calcs:



depending if the next due divs correspond only to batch1-april, we should get about 0,023 BTC.
but it can also take into account batch2-may, and we would then have >0,1 BTC for sure!

[RoadStress]

Any div predictions? I'm guessing ~0.015 btc/share

here are my calcs:



depending if the next due divs correspond only to batch1-april, we should get about 0,023 BTC.
but it can also take into account batch2-may, and we would then have >0,1 BTC for sure!

You really think they sold 850k chips in april? Where are the divs for them?

You really think that they will sell more than 3 mil chips in May and then more than 6 mil in June? When are you expecting divs for those chips?

[hdbuck]

Any div predictions? I'm guessing ~0.015 btc/share

here are my calcs:



depending if the next due divs correspond only to batch1-april, we should get about 0,023 BTC.
but it can also take into account batch2-may, and we would then have >0,1 BTC for sure!

You really think they sold 850k chips in april? Where are the divs for them?

You really think that they will sell more than 3 mil chips in May and then more than 6 mil in June? When are you expecting divs for those chips?

I'm just interpreting the figures that Jutarul has provided us with until now.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg6329377#msg6329377

[explorer]

Pretty sure I read that all of the first batch was sold/spoken for. That was in April?

[hdbuck]

Pretty sure I read that all of the first batch was sold/spoken for. That was in April?

yup

Submitted Questions:
1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that?
re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.

i fear divs might be offbeat tho. but who cares, as long as their coming.. once first divs from batch1 are payed, FC shall then make rain bitcoins upon us.. again!

edit: oh and im not even talking about franchisees or solomining's..

[Evolyn]

Cannot understand why people are selling at such a price with chips right around the corner...

Me neither. But instead complaining, I'm happy I was able to grab a few more cheap shares untill the dividend payouts continue. It's already time to prepare (order popcorn) for the panic buys soon.

Personally, I am in to sell at peak prices when gen3 divs kick in hard. With current aweful aweful numbers at full deployment/selling of all chips, I will sell my shares for the minimum of 1 BTC each, That is doubling my capital in less than 3 months.

Mark my words.

- Lophie

Can't be sum up better, same plan here

I've got a feeling that a lot of people follow that exact plan. I don't know whether it's wise or not, but this might very well end up pretty badly.

No risk no fun For people who aren't aware of the risk it may really end up pretty badly. I think, as long as people don't forget the risks and can handle the worst case, it's a wise move. Well, doesn't change the fact I'm very bullish.

My calculations and predictions are quite similar to what other people already posted here.

[minerpumpkin]

Cannot understand why people are selling at such a price with chips right around the corner...

Me neither. But instead complaining, I'm happy I was able to grab a few more cheap shares untill the dividend payouts continue. It's already time to prepare (order popcorn) for the panic buys soon.

Personally, I am in to sell at peak prices when gen3 divs kick in hard. With current aweful aweful numbers at full deployment/selling of all chips, I will sell my shares for the minimum of 1 BTC each, That is doubling my capital in less than 3 months.

Mark my words.

- Lophie

Can't be sum up better, same plan here

I've got a feeling that a lot of people follow that exact plan. I don't know whether it's wise or not, but this might very well end up pretty badly.

So do you think the price will never get past 1?

I'm just saying we might be in for quite some backlash when long time holders withdraw (to an extent) from their positions. An they all seem to wait for 1 BTC.

[lophie]

Cannot understand why people are selling at such a price with chips right around the corner...

Me neither. But instead complaining, I'm happy I was able to grab a few more cheap shares untill the dividend payouts continue. It's already time to prepare (order popcorn) for the panic buys soon.

Personally, I am in to sell at peak prices when gen3 divs kick in hard. With current aweful aweful numbers at full deployment/selling of all chips, I will sell my shares for the minimum of 1 BTC each, That is doubling my capital in less than 3 months.

Mark my words.

- Lophie

Can't be sum up better, same plan here

I've got a feeling that a lot of people follow that exact plan. I don't know whether it's wise or not, but this might very well end up pretty badly.

So do you think the price will never get past 1?

I'm just saying we might be in for quite some backlash when long time holders withdraw (to an extent) from their positions. An they all seem to wait for 1 BTC.

Please let them. We need more investors for the prices to fluctuate. I love arbitraging markets

[BitThink]

when there are almost definitely 0.25BTC will be paid in the following months, the share price is just 0.43. Then people wish the share price become 1 BTC when all dividends are paid out, and future dividends depends on uncertain gen 4? Now it's the winter of BTC stocks, not so many newbies there anymore. Please be realistic.

[willBTC]

when there are almost definitely 0.25BTC will be paid in the following months, the share price is just 0.43. Then people wish the share price become 1 BTC when all dividends are paid out, and future dividends depends on uncertain gen 4? Now it's the winter of BTC stocks, not so many newbies there anymore. Please be realistic.

Even there will be no more chip sales revenues, there will be also the mining income.  As Friedcat pointed out that even in China there will be 20P franchising and 3p solo mining. I just assume that by then the total  network hashrate is 500P, the AM still capture 4% of the network. The dividend will be 0.00252BTC  per week , given the APR around 20% , the reasonable share price will be 0.6 more.

As for an long-term investor , even in the next round of mining , 12.5 BTC will be mined every 10 minutes . it's still good for me.

[BitThink]

when there are almost definitely 0.25BTC will be paid in the following months, the share price is just 0.43. Then people wish the share price become 1 BTC when all dividends are paid out, and future dividends depends on uncertain gen 4? Now it's the winter of BTC stocks, not so many newbies there anymore. Please be realistic.

Even there will be no more chip sales revenues, there will be also the mining income.  As Friedcat pointed out that even in China there will be 20P franchising and 3p solo mining. I just assume that by then the total  network hashrate is 500P, the AM still capture 4% of the network. The dividend will be 0.00252BTC  per week , given the APR around 20% , the reasonable share price will be 0.6 more.

As for an long-term investor , even in the next round of mining , 12.5 BTC will be mined every 10 minutes . it's still good for me.

Just the number 500P increases very fast and the number 23P will remain unchanged for a long time. therefore 4% is not possible be kept for a month, let alone a year. Therefore mining APR 20% is not possible.

[lophie]

when there are almost definitely 0.25BTC will be paid in the following months, the share price is just 0.43. Then people wish the share price become 1 BTC when all dividends are paid out, and future dividends depends on uncertain gen 4? Now it's the winter of BTC stocks, not so many newbies there anymore. Please be realistic.

Even there will be no more chip sales revenues, there will be also the mining income.  As Friedcat pointed out that even in China there will be 20P franchising and 3p solo mining. I just assume that by then the total  network hashrate is 500P, the AM still capture 4% of the network. The dividend will be 0.00252BTC  per week , given the APR around 20% , the reasonable share price will be 0.6 more.

As for an long-term investor , even in the next round of mining , 12.5 BTC will be mined every 10 minutes . it's still good for me.

Just the number 500P increases very fast and the number 23P will remain unchanged for a long time. therefore 4% is not possible be kept for a month, let alone a year. Therefore mining APR 20% is not possible.

 

[Zubilica]

Dare to speculate about 27th divs value ?

mine is 0.103

[hdbuck]

0.028

[tinyfox266]

Dare to speculate about 27th divs value ?

mine is 0.103

how you calculate this?

[tinyfox266]

here is another estimation.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg6812263#msg6812263

[Swordsoffreedom]

With only a few days left till the dividend
What is the sentiment of Asicminer remaining competitive in the next generation and how much hash they are going to be able to bring online before difficulty rises to a point where this generation is unprofitable

[mikemikemike]

With only a few days left till the dividend
What is the sentiment of Asicminer remaining competitive in the next generation and how much hash they are going to be able to bring online before difficulty rises to a point where this generation is unprofitable

Considering they pay 0.20$ per GH to manufacture each chip, it's going to be a long long time before they can't make any money of GEN3

[Zubilica]

Tomorrow we will know for sure