ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[_mr_e]

Actually a lot of people are speculating on big hashrate coming from china as from last 1-2 days

Source?

look at the unknown in blockchain.info

but given tape out is on 20th, even if it's successful and ahead of schedule, it can't be ready for mass deployment yet.

The unknown is most likely GHash silently controlling 51%.

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[Anthony1985]

So guys is this a good time to buy some shares?

[ujka]

Actually a lot of people are speculating on big hashrate coming from china as from last 1-2 days

Source?

look at the unknown in blockchain.info

but given tape out is on 20th, even if it's successful and ahead of schedule, it can't be ready for mass deployment yet.

Don't look at blockchain.info for hashrate distribution, please. Better look at http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2014/01/january-19th-2014-weekly-pool-and.html
Almost all blocks accounted for. Big 'unknown' portion is 'Discus Fish' pool, at 13%. 3rd pool now!

[hdbuck]

So guys is this a good time to buy some shares?

its kinda hard to tell now since it recently surged from 0,25 to 0,7. i wouldnt expect for the price to break 0,85 after announcement which could also be good/bad/late. its nearly impossible for its price to break 1BTC considering that the divs wont go back to previous highs (since there wont be no improvement of AM's hashrate and there is almost nothing left to sell...). but hey... never say never uh...

[Lloydie]

So guys is this a good time to buy some shares?

its kinda hard to tell now since it recently surged from 0,25 to 0,7. i wouldnt expect for the price to break 0,85 after announcement which could also be good/bad/late. its nearly impossible for its price to break 1BTC considering that the divs wont go back to previous highs (since there wont be no improvement of AM's hashrate and there is almost nothing left to sell...). but hey... never say never uh...

If AM produces the most energy efficient chips (@0.2 watts/ghs) and outhashes everybody, how many Btcs will AM be able to theoretically mine in say one year?  Give me a min and a max.

[avabit]

If AM produces the most energy efficient chips (@0.2 watts/ghs) and outhashes everybody, how many Btcs will AM be able to theoretically mine in say one year?  Give me a min and a max.

(Until the next reward halving)
25 BTC per block
144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

If AM maintains an average of 10% of the hashrate:
131400 BTC mined by AM
0.3285 BTC per share


I'd say min would be 2.5%, max would be 25% so between 0.082125 BTC and 0.82125 BTC per share

And this doesn't count in hardware sales or anything like that

[buck19]

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

[Lloydie]

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

Brilliant analysis guys.  So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff?  That is a really good return, IMHO.  Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips).  I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining.  Either way AM wins).

[empoweoqwj]

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

Brilliant analysis guys.  So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff?  That is a really good return, IMHO.  Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips).  I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining.  Either way AM wins).

Very bullish, and as a shareholder, I share the dream. But until we see a working chip, its just a dream.

[Lloydie]

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

Brilliant analysis guys.  So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff?  That is a really good return, IMHO.  Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips).  I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining.  Either way AM wins).

Very bullish, and as a shareholder, I share the dream. But until we see a working chip, its just a dream.

I should add risks too:
1. Someone develops an even more efficient chip/mining process
2. FC walks away
3. Something happens to FC
4. Someone steals chip design
5. AM goes private or is acquired

[superduh]

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

Brilliant analysis guys.  So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff?  That is a really good return, IMHO.  Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips).  I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining.  Either way AM wins).

if transaction fees pick up........................ that helps

[empoweoqwj]

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

Brilliant analysis guys.  So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff?  That is a really good return, IMHO.  Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips).  I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining.  Either way AM wins).

Very bullish, and as a shareholder, I share the dream. But until we see a working chip, its just a dream.

I should add risks too:
1. Someone develops an even more efficient chip/mining process
2. FC walks away
3. Something happens to FC
4. Someone steals chip design
5. AM goes private or is acquired

I could list risks all day but they just stress me out prefer to "hold and dream"

[empoweoqwj]

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

Brilliant analysis guys.  So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff?  That is a really good return, IMHO.  Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips).  I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining.  Either way AM wins).

if transaction fees pick up........................ that helps

Still not looking good on that front:

https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees

Why not?

[chriswilmer]

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

Brilliant analysis guys.  So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff?  That is a really good return, IMHO.  Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips).  I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining.  Either way AM wins).

if transaction fees pick up........................ that helps

Still not looking good on that front:

https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees

Why not?

Give it time. I think tx volume could quickly go to 1000x what it is today (within 5 years). Might only lead to 10x tx fees because btc/usd will go up 100x in the meantime.

[empoweoqwj]

144 blocks per day
52560 blocks per year
1314000 BTC per year

The blocks have been mined at a substantially faster rate than the ideal of 6 blocks per hour. I think the average is more like 7.5 blocks per hour, which pencils out to 65,700 blocks per year and 1,642,500 btc per year.

Using the 2.5% to 25% range, I get 0.10 to 1.02 bitcoins per share in potential mining revenue.

Brilliant analysis guys.  So, if someone bought at 0.3 they would almost be guaranteeing themselves a 30% to a 300% payoff?  That is a really good return, IMHO.  Should have done the maths a few weeks earlier!

Anyway, I don't believe AM cannot mine 400,000 Btc over its lifetime from this point forward, which implies min of 1 Btc per share. Also, I can't see AM stopping at 2.5% of network with the most energy efficient chips (and possibly cheapest chips).  I can't see AM stopping at anything less than 40% of network assuming the most energy efficient chips (unless they are selling chips at a higher margin compared to mining.  Either way AM wins).

if transaction fees pick up........................ that helps

Still not looking good on that front:

https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees

Why not?

Give it time. I think tx volume could quickly go to 1000x what it is today (within 5 years). Might only lead to 10x tx fees because btc/usd will go up 100x in the meantime.

The worry is tx volume is less than is was a year ago? How can that be right with all these new retailers starting to accept bitcoin? Or we talking the SR influence here or something else entirely?

[ujka]

The worry is tx volume is less than is was a year ago? How can that be right with all these new retailers starting to accept bitcoin? Or we talking the SR influence here or something else entirely?

Transaction volume, or number of transactions is not lower than it was a year ago.
That chart is showing tx fees, in btc, and it's volume is less (in btc) then a year ago. That's because default individual fee on a transaction is lower now, 0.0001 btc. Was 0.0005 btc before.

Look this chart, tx fees in $, http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees-usd
Tx fees in jan 2013 - $1000
Tx fees in jan 2014 - $15000

[bambou]

seriously? you guys really think it could go back to 3 or 4 BTC/share? shhht i need to buy a lot more now then!!

[freedomno1]

seriously? you guys really think it could go back to 3 or 4 BTC/share? shhht i need to buy a lot more now then!!

Lol Escaped from newbie jail THEYMOS  
(Kid getting to rail on the newbie ranks outside of newbie threads is fun atm before it gets old lol)

That said It really depends on how long they can control the market
30% of the network for 3 months of the year is still a large amount
Or I guess 30% of hash equivalent in hardware sales
But digresses and waits on the news assuming Chinese New Year might not be till Valentines Day

[Lloydie]

seriously? you guys really think it could go back to 3 or 4 BTC/share? shhht i need to buy a lot more now then!!

Lol Escaped from newbie jail THEYMOS  
(Kid getting to rail on the newbie ranks outside of newbie threads is fun atm before it gets old lol)

That said It really depends on how long they can control the market
30% of the network for 3 months of the year is still a large amount
Or I guess 30% of hash equivalent in hardware sales
But digresses and waits on the news assuming Chinese New Year might not be till Valentines Day

I think it depends on whether AM is able to capture 400,000 of the next say 2 Million Btcs.  Something major would have to happen for that not to occur, IMHO.

[freedomno1]

seriously? you guys really think it could go back to 3 or 4 BTC/share? shhht i need to buy a lot more now then!!

Lol Escaped from newbie jail THEYMOS  
(Kid getting to rail on the newbie ranks outside of newbie threads is fun atm before it gets old lol)

That said It really depends on how long they can control the market
30% of the network for 3 months of the year is still a large amount
Or I guess 30% of hash equivalent in hardware sales
But digresses and waits on the news assuming Chinese New Year might not be till Valentines Day

I think it depends on whether AM is able to capture 400,000 of the next say 2 Million Btcs.  Something major would have to happen for that not to occur, IMHO.

I did end up with 30% but your right should go with 15% although 7.5% as it is an average
I included the idea that nothing else was theoretically mined for 9 months so drops that amount by a half and a fourth for those that like to measure numbers that way. 30% For 3 Months is the same as saying 7.5% Averaged over a year
This also assumes they went into mining for some logical reason instead of selling the units at above market prices.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
262500   2   25.00   2014   11812500   1312500   13125000   11.11%   62.500%

1312500* 0.3 = 393,750 BTC /400,000 = 0.984375
1312500* 0.2 = 262,500 BTC /400,000 = 0.65625
1312500* 0.15 = 196,875 BTC /400,000 = 0.4921875
1312500* 0.1 = 131,250 BTC /400,000 = 0.328125
1312500* 0.05 = 65,625 BTC /400,000 = 0.1640625
1312500* 0.005 = 6562.5 BTC/ 400,000 = 0.01640625

The market is around 0.6 Now so Assuming I presume around an average of 30% Yield yearly
Since that was the yield we were at before the price rises in anticipation of the release
0.6*0.3 = 0.18 BTC/YR so at about 5.5% Hashrate
Presumes the market values AM at about a 5.5% yearly Hashrate presently

So there is room for movement either way but I like other peoples speculation numbers more
Technically if we used current hash that's where the bears come from but still naps on news and lets Friedcat have his vacay time