Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[mechs]

2) if expectation is to lose 25k, to beat it by 40k you 'only' have to win 15k.  That means winning 5018 times (5018*400 - 4982*400 = 14400)

Using your numbers, he would be about 8.8% to win 15K or more.  That's based on his winning 5018+ out of 10K rolls, with a 49.5% chance to win each individual roll.  That's obviously in the realm of possibility.  

My understanding is that he has played more than 10K rolls, but the fact he varies his bet sizes adds more variance.  As someone already mentioned, some kind of Monte Carlo simulation would be the best way to figure out how probable his win streak is.

We could run his exact same bets through a simulator 10,000 times and see how often his results are met or exceeded. No mathetmatical proofs required

[1715140872]

1715140872

[1715140872]

1715140872

[1715140872]

1715140872

[KGambler]

2) if expectation is to lose 25k, to beat it by 40k you 'only' have to win 15k.  That means winning 5018 times (5018*400 - 4982*400 = 14400)

Using your numbers, he would be about 8.8% to win 15K or more.  That's based on his winning 5018+ out of 10K rolls, with a 49.5% chance to win each individual roll.  That's obviously in the realm of possibility.  

My understanding is that he has played more than 10K rolls, but the fact he varies his bet sizes adds more variance.  As someone already mentioned, some kind of Monte Carlo simulation would be the best way to figure out how probable his win streak is.

We could run his exact same bets through a simulator 10,000 times and see how often his results are met or exceeded. No mathetmatical proofs required

I have read about this situation, but I have never even been to the just-dice site so I don't know how the games work.  Is he always betting the "even money" type propositions?  Can you bet stuff like "over 25.5" at close to 3-1 odds?  How many different types of bets can he make?  If he's betting a wide variety of propositions, setting up an exact simulation of his bets is not going to be easy.

If someone does go through the trouble, they should obviously run it more than 10K times.

[KGambler]

[How likely is that to occur? Is that the 2.1% on that histogram we always see posted?

If you want to play around with different scenarios, just google "binomial calculator".  They have some online.

[grau]

How lucky one needs to be to beat expectation with 40k?

Lets bet 400 on >50.5 say 10000 times. We only need to win 5100 times, right?

No, I don't think that is right, for two reasons:

1) if you win 5100 times, you win (5100*400)-(4900*400) = 80k.  Not 40k.  So you're off by a factor of two there

2) if expectation is to lose 25k, to beat it by 40k you 'only' have to win 15k.  That means winning 5018 times (5018*400 - 4982*400 = 14400)

So you 'only' need to win 5018 and lose 4982 to be around 40k better than expectation.

You are right with 1, apologize for the obvious error I made.

As for 2. the expectation is to lose 37k by all folks wagering 3.7 million including nakowa, JD off that by 40k.
I agree that the probability of that is 2.2% WITH bets of size 400 and 10000 bets.

Bets were however mostly much lower and we had magnitudes more bets, so probability should be significantly below than that to be where JD is.

[Cluster2k]

Looking at the raw bet win/loss numbers, players are winning about 48.5% of the time, so JD is doing a bit better overall than it should.  Of course, we know the site is far below where the maths suggests its profit should be, so a disproportionate number of small bets are losing and large bets are winning.  The longer the trend continues the more unlikely it becomes.

[manoamano]

I like the website
But I should stop gambling

[dooglus]

Looking at the raw bet win/loss numbers, players are winning about 48.5% of the time, so JD is doing a bit better overall than it should.

Did you see that you can change your chance of winning?  You can bet at 10% chance of winning and get 9.9 times your stake back if you win, for instance.

That's why players are winning 48.5% of all bets - because the hard to win bets are slightly more popular than the easy to win bets.

[saif313]

I set up a account and sed payment from inputs but now my account no working mean I am giving username and password but not working why

thanks doogles for good and positive reply cheers for your service

[seuntjie]

Hello everyone

As promised, I'm notifying of an update to my DiceBot for JD. V-2.4 is now available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/seuntjiejddb/, for those of you that don't trust exe files, you can get the source code from https://sourceforge.net/p/seuntjiejddb/code/?source=navbar.

In this update, I redesigned some of the visual aspects of the bot, added some more stats, added zig zag (switch between high and low betting), a strategy simulator and a bet verifier. I started working on some auto invest and divest features which is not done yet, so inputs are still disabled. For anyone still using the old version, NCP login is no longer required.



If you have any requests or suggestions for features you would like me to add, please message me here, catch me on jd chat or send me a message on the netcodepool forum (http://netcodepool.org).

I appreciate any input, from bug reports, suggestions, complaints, requests or whatever constructive remark you have. If you like the bot, please donate to
Btc: 1EHPYeVGkquij8eMRQqwyb5bjpooyyfgn5
Ltc: LQvMRbyuuSVsvXA3mQQM3zXT53hb34CEzy

[Rampion]

Why did you obscured the "profit" (but not the "wagered")? If guess there's no strategy good enough?

[Jungian]

Where is just-dice hosted? Is it currently at risk for government action?

[chikago]

Where is just-dice hosted? Is it currently at risk for government action?

I've been wondering that myself. I've asked in the chat before, but I didn't get a response. Doog was chatting, but I'm giving the benefit of the doubt that he didn't see the question.

America - Land of the Free*

*excludes online gambling, must pay tax to stay alive, all communications subject to monitoring, etc etc.

[geofflosophy]

Where is just-dice hosted? Is it currently at risk for government action?

I've been wondering that myself. I've asked in the chat before, but I didn't get a response. Doog was chatting, but I'm giving the benefit of the doubt that he didn't see the question.

America - Land of the Free*

*excludes online gambling, must pay tax to stay alive, all communications subject to monitoring, etc etc.

It's hosted in Ireland.

[Otoh]

doog mentioned seeing a deposit of 1,000 coins come in recently that was then withdrawn in smaller chunks, no gambling or invest made, which looked like a drive by laundering, seems these ransom ware purveyors are also doing their washing at Just-Dice.

[superresistant]

Hello everyone

As promised, I'm notifying of an update to my DiceBot for JD. V-2.4 is now available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/seuntjiejddb/, for those of you that don't trust exe files, you can get the source code from https://sourceforge.net/p/seuntjiejddb/code/?source=navbar.

In this update, I redesigned some of the visual aspects of the bot, added some more stats, added zig zag (switch between high and low betting), a strategy simulator and a bet verifier. I started working on some auto invest and divest features which is not done yet, so inputs are still disabled. For anyone still using the old version, NCP login is no longer required.



If you have any requests or suggestions for features you would like me to add, please message me here, catch me on jd chat or send me a message on the netcodepool forum (http://netcodepool.org).

I appreciate any input, from bug reports, suggestions, complaints, requests or whatever constructive remark you have. If you like the bot, please donate to
Btc: 1EHPYeVGkquij8eMRQqwyb5bjpooyyfgn5
Ltc: LQvMRbyuuSVsvXA3mQQM3zXT53hb34CEzy

Can someone have a look at the code ?

[DebitMe]

Hello everyone

As promised, I'm notifying of an update to my DiceBot for JD. V-2.4 is now available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/seuntjiejddb/, for those of you that don't trust exe files, you can get the source code from https://sourceforge.net/p/seuntjiejddb/code/?source=navbar.

In this update, I redesigned some of the visual aspects of the bot, added some more stats, added zig zag (switch between high and low betting), a strategy simulator and a bet verifier. I started working on some auto invest and divest features which is not done yet, so inputs are still disabled. For anyone still using the old version, NCP login is no longer required.



If you have any requests or suggestions for features you would like me to add, please message me here, catch me on jd chat or send me a message on the netcodepool forum (http://netcodepool.org).

I appreciate any input, from bug reports, suggestions, complaints, requests or whatever constructive remark you have. If you like the bot, please donate to
Btc: 1EHPYeVGkquij8eMRQqwyb5bjpooyyfgn5
Ltc: LQvMRbyuuSVsvXA3mQQM3zXT53hb34CEzy

Can someone have a look at the code ?

I have been using it for a couple of days now and have had no problems.  I have not looked at the code and only started using it on backup computer that had no coins on it, with a alt account on JD that had only a few coins on it.  So far so good, so I moved into onto my main computer and it is still running great.

AGAIN, I HAVE NOT LOOKED AT ANY CODE, but so far it has been running fine for me.  Great Bot.

[stephwen]

Hello everyone

As promised, I'm notifying of an update to my DiceBot for JD. V-2.4 is now available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/seuntjiejddb/, for those of you that don't trust exe files, you can get the source code from https://sourceforge.net/p/seuntjiejddb/code/?source=navbar.

In this update, I redesigned some of the visual aspects of the bot, added some more stats, added zig zag (switch between high and low betting), a strategy simulator and a bet verifier. I started working on some auto invest and divest features which is not done yet, so inputs are still disabled. For anyone still using the old version, NCP login is no longer required.



If you have any requests or suggestions for features you would like me to add, please message me here, catch me on jd chat or send me a message on the netcodepool forum (http://netcodepool.org).

I appreciate any input, from bug reports, suggestions, complaints, requests or whatever constructive remark you have. If you like the bot, please donate to
Btc: 1EHPYeVGkquij8eMRQqwyb5bjpooyyfgn5
Ltc: LQvMRbyuuSVsvXA3mQQM3zXT53hb34CEzy

Can someone have a look at the code ?

I have been using it for a couple of days now and have had no problems.  I have not looked at the code and only started using it on backup computer that had no coins on it, with a alt account on JD that had only a few coins on it.  So far so good, so I moved into onto my main computer and it is still running great.

AGAIN, I HAVE NOT LOOKED AT ANY CODE, but so far it has been running fine for me.  Great Bot.

Are you up? How much?

[petrescuerz]

New blog post! http://just-dice.blogspot.ca/2013/10/klyes-saga-and-more.html

Deb

[willphase]

New blog post! http://just-dice.blogspot.ca/2013/10/klyes-saga-and-more.html

Deb

the just-dice "Downfall" video is very amusing

Will

[MRKLYE]

New blog post! http://just-dice.blogspot.ca/2013/10/klyes-saga-and-more.html

Deb

Thank you for putting part 1 of my saga on the site Deb.