Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[Rannasha]

Some crazy swings happening today. Earlier the house was down to -1600 BTC profits, now it's back up to -200 BTC. 1400 BTC swing in a few minutes.

[infested999]

Code:

15:44:49 (10091) <KuraHoshi> 好策略
15:44:59 (32171) <jiadong> 一辆大奔输了
15:45:06 (10091) <KuraHoshi> 我是輸到0.5就去賭博補回來XD
15:45:13 (10091) <KuraHoshi> 保持投資水位
15:45:18 (748) <lordsonkit> 因为她本大，跟他玩Martingle真是会输的
15:45:26 (10091) <KuraHoshi> 超酷炫XD 1500BTC
15:45:34 (748) <lordsonkit> 但是发疯时候... :P
15:45:44 (10091) <KuraHoshi> 對阿 雙倍押注淫威 這網站最大下注太高了
15:45:49 (32807) <florence> 为什么就看不懂你说说的了？
15:45:57 (21896) <bryony> 一辆大奔输了!$
15:46:12 (14252) <777> stop writing in unreadable lang

Meanwhile on the chat...

[marcovaldo]

I don't understand chinese (or maybe it's japanese? or korean?).

[yuchuanzhen]

Code:

15:44:49 (10091) <KuraHoshi> 好策略
15:44:59 (32171) <jiadong> 一辆大奔输了
15:45:06 (10091) <KuraHoshi> 我是輸到0.5就去賭博補回來XD
15:45:13 (10091) <KuraHoshi> 保持投資水位
15:45:18 (748) <lordsonkit> 因为她本大，跟他玩Martingle真是会输的
15:45:26 (10091) <KuraHoshi> 超酷炫XD 1500BTC
15:45:34 (748) <lordsonkit> 但是发疯时候... :P
15:45:44 (10091) <KuraHoshi> 對阿 雙倍押注淫威 這網站最大下注太高了
15:45:49 (32807) <florence> 为什么就看不懂你说说的了？
15:45:57 (21896) <bryony> 一辆大奔输了!$
15:46:12 (14252) <777> stop writing in unreadable lang

Meanwhile on the chat...

It's chinese.
And they were  saying,maybe somebody just lose one BMW.

[001sonkit]

Site is back to POSITIVE

[001sonkit]

Site is back to POSITIVE

Not my investment though. Though it's going up quite fast - much faster than what it took previously.

Maybe this did get us some publicity?

Neither do mine. I am closing JD PAGE prevent myself from heartbreaking and do stupid stuff.
(-3.8 BTC)

[dooglus]

There's some incredible betting activity still going on.  'celeste' is winning using what looks like a martingale strategy:

[001sonkit]

Guys who were happy, dont be now. that whale is back.
(And i have just lost more.... fuck it)
18 hour chart

[drawingthesun]

If your tracking Nakowa/Celeste please use the id and not minimum bet, because he makes lots of smaller bets and if you filter by bet your will lose the interesting test bets he does.

[Mooshire]

I've never seen people bet so much money in my life. Ever.

[infested999]

Site is back to POSITIVE

Not my investment though. Though it's going up quite fast - much faster than what it took previously.

Maybe this did get us some publicity?

Neither do mine. I am closing JD PAGE prevent myself from heartbreaking and do stupid stuff.
(-3.8 BTC)

I did call you an idiot when you divested right when cici made profit yesterday.

[addzz]

There's some incredible betting activity still going on.  'celeste' is winning using what looks like a martingale strategy:

You might have your filter on... cause they are starting with .01 until loss, then proceeding with 11 BTC

[001sonkit]

Some update perhaps

[001sonkit]

Site is back to POSITIVE

Not my investment though. Though it's going up quite fast - much faster than what it took previously.

Maybe this did get us some publicity?

Neither do mine. I am closing JD PAGE prevent myself from heartbreaking and do stupid stuff.
(-3.8 BTC)

I did call you an idiot when you divested right when cici made profit yesterday.

Sorry if my idioticness hurt you, expect that you are chatting with a 16 y/o guy
Much to learn, i'd be glad to learn what you know.

[kopipe]

It would be funny if he actually had the server seed and was laughing at everyone discussing mathematics in the trollbox.

Obviously, if that were the case, he'd be doing this so as to get paid and not make it obvious  

Just food for thought, I know this is mathematically possible to happen but there's no clear evidence that the site has not been hacked either.  

Everyone invested myself included is simply betting on the site's security and dooglus' competence.

[dooglus]

You might have your filter on... cause they are starting with .01 until loss, then proceeding with 11 BTC

I see the 0.01 bets.  He bets until a 0.01 loses (because that increases the chance of the next bet winning?)

Smacks of classic gambler's fallacy to me.  But it seems to be working for him for now.

[001sonkit]

Halfway back to neutral..... Go, Whales, Lose Whales!

[dooglus]

Some recent losing streaks:





Speculation over his profitability:

10:38:33 (20153) <unknown> 3128, he came with 600 earlier, plus 400 for this round, and profit was already -800 today, so his actually down today
10:39:55 (20153) <unknown> when the site is -1700 he is break even, remember this ignores all his gains yesterday
10:40:02 (31791) <celeste> I'm still have 639 profit.

[001sonkit]

Weehhhaaaallle。。。 i guess this is too intense.... (And doog never know how much commision will he get until last second.... 0 for this week i guess......)
All in 20 hours period

[mechs]

I think Dooglas needs to make some changes to the system.  It is too high risk to the investors.  Currently we have a 1% edge with a 1% of bankroll max payout per bet.  Compared to competitors such as satoshi dice, primedice and coinroll.it we are superior in everyway, too much so actually and we should make some parameters more conservative. We are amazing for gamblers but not a good deal for investors currently.

The current setup would be fine over infinite time with infinite bankroll, but at the far more finite #s involved, the system breaks down for investors:

Primedice: 1% edge, 20 BTC max payout?(website faq says 5BTC), slow betting versus J-D (since done via deposit addresses), spams the blockchain, less provably fair than Just-Dice since server seed changes only daily, unclear how the client seed is generated

Satoshi Dice: 1.9% edge, 500BTX max payout (though at 50% is only 463), slow betting versus J-D (since done via deposit addresses) and spams the blockchain, less provably fair than Just-Dice since seed changes only daily and unclear where client seed chosen from

Coinroll.it: 1% edge, Not sure what is the max payout, real-time betting similar to J-D, less provably fair than J-D since since uses the last depost tx ID as client seed

Just-Dice: 1% Edge, Max Payout per Bet is 1% of bankroll (now down to 254BTC), Real-time fast Betting (20 bets/second max), most provably fair system put there.  Can re-randomize both the client and server seed at will (every bet if wish).  Can actually enter your own client seed if you do not want to use the one generated by the server.  Plus, I would argue the OP is one of the most reputable people on bitcointalk.  An additional plus is it allows open investing.  The negative is it is not provably fair to investors at all - need to simply trust the OP who knows both the client and server seed and could use shill accounts to steal from investors.

From a gamblers perspective, the investor's risks in Just-Dice are a non-issue other than if they lose enough investors the bankroll will be so low that betting will be restricted and site may eventually fail. 

I do not think we need to be as far ahead in fairness to players in relation to the other sites as we current are.  We should either increase the House Edge or decrease the max payout or both.  If the bankroll were much larger (say 1 million bitcoin) we could continue as is, but with the current size bankroll, having no max payout with a 1% edge at 20 bets/second is very risky for investors.  Also, some attempt should be taken to make the system more provably fair to investors (though I do not think Dooglas is cheating)