Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[wolverine.ks]

New possible site design offered by TempleRunAI

https://i.imgur.com/BrfTdIi.png

I'd prefer one that's responsive, because the site is a real pain to use on mobile (even high-end models).

That new design is just as responsive as the current site, it's just a different color scheme.

However a lot of people seem to be using this site on mobile. Doog should just buy up ggdice.com for the mobile design.

i like the cleaner look, but i would prefer a darker theme, and the ability to choose the color of the JD theme, that would be awesome.

additionally, i think there needs to be some shuffling around of the buttons, and hiding unused buttons and stats with whatever method seems appropriate.

i agree there needs to be a mobile reboot for JD, but i dont really like the mobile design of ggdice. too complicated. everything is too big and takes up the whole screen.

[Boelens]

Not sure this is bad but just an observation...

I have done tons of bets the last week all at 2X.  The number of bets done I don't think are relevant.  What is fascinating is I have documented at least 12 streaks of 15 greens and 0 streaks of 15 red thus allowing me longer play.  The highest streaks of red I have experienced is 11.  At some point those 12 streaks of  "15 greens" need to be paid for by matching those 12 times with the equivalent 15 reds.

Perhaps other folks are not as lucky and getting my 15 red streaks?

There are plenty of streaks of red out there too.  One day you'll hit a bad one.  When it happens please try not to scream "this site is rigged!"

If you want to tell me your userid I can take a look and tell you exactly how many streaks of each length you've had.  Are you mixing up 'hi' and 'lo', or always playing the same?  If you mix it up then you can be even more sure the streaks are entirely down to luck, since your moment to moment decisions about how to roll are entirely responsible for them (except when you roll between 49.5 and 50.5 - there's nothing you can do about those ones).

My user ID 1194, can I see my highest win and loss streak on 49.5? Quite curious. I've done it for a while now and am 0.3BTC profit total!

[infested999]

Feature Suggestion

- If a filter is set (eg. only show bets above 1 btc) your own bets should stay in "My Bets" and should not show up in "All Bets"

If I set a filter to show only bets with at least +/- 1 BTC and I decide to place some dust bets, those dust bets should not be shown along with the other 1 BTC bets.

Example: https://i.imgur.com/twiOdx6.png

[RationalSpeculator]

If you don't have the time, or patience, or fortitude, or perseverance, or stubbornness to do that, you can send your coins to me and I'll double it for you in about 2 weeks. (This is the DIGS or Dabs Investment Gambling Security.) The advantage I hold, aside from the magic seeds, are that my initial bets no longer get any delays for being above the dust levels.

Am I reading this right, an investment fund for gamblers?  

That really gave a good laugh, thanks

Bitcoinland never seizes to amaze me.

Good luck

[Boelens]

If you don't have the time, or patience, or fortitude, or perseverance, or stubbornness to do that, you can send your coins to me and I'll double it for you in about 2 weeks. (This is the DIGS or Dabs Investment Gambling Security.) The advantage I hold, aside from the magic seeds, are that my initial bets no longer get any delays for being above the dust levels.

Am I reading this right, an investment fund for gamblers?  

That really gave a good laugh, thanks

Bitcoinland never seizes to amaze me.

Good luck

Gambling investments can never go wrong! I hope this is sarcastic, becuase there's no way he can continue to double. There are no 'magic seeds'.

[BRules]

Gambling investments can never go wrong! I hope this is sarcastic, becuase there's no way he can continue to double. There are no 'magic seeds'.

He is talking about the DIGS, not the invest feature of just-dice.

[RationalSpeculator]

If you don't have the time, or patience, or fortitude, or perseverance, or stubbornness to do that, you can send your coins to me and I'll double it for you in about 2 weeks. (This is the DIGS or Dabs Investment Gambling Security.) The advantage I hold, aside from the magic seeds, are that my initial bets no longer get any delays for being above the dust levels.

Am I reading this right, an investment fund for gamblers?  

That really gave a good laugh, thanks

Bitcoinland never seizes to amaze me.

Good luck

Gambling investments can never go wrong! I hope this is sarcastic, becuase there's no way he can continue to double. There are no 'magic seeds'.

Did I say that it could not go wrong?

I wish him good luck because he will need plenty of that 

At first I thought it was ridiculous, an investment fund for gamblers, as the odds are against you.

But this person claims to have more luck than others, he's a dragon 

There is some logic here. Gamblers count on luck, otherwise they wouldn't gamble on JD. They hope to be lucky, and if they believe someone else is more lucky then they are, it makes sense to let this person gamble for you. It happens all the time in casino's I guess. 

But to see an investment fund develop around it makes me laugh out loud

I think it's interesting to see all this develop and I really do wish them good luck. 

[vlees]

it makes sense to let this person gamble for you. It happens all the time in casino's I guess. 

Yes, happens regularly in casinos on BlackJack.

[dooglus]

My user ID 1194, can I see my highest win and loss streak on 49.5? Quite curious. I've done it for a while now and am 0.3BTC profit total!

You made 2710 bets.
2005 of them were at 49.5%.

Your longest streaks are:

      9 L
     10 L
     11 W
     12 L
     13 L

That's pretty streaky for just 2005 bets.

[Boelens]

My user ID 1194, can I see my highest win and loss streak on 49.5? Quite curious. I've done it for a while now and am 0.3BTC profit total!

You made 2710 bets.
2005 of them were at 49.5%.

Your longest streaks are:

      9 L
     10 L
     11 W
     12 L
     13 L

That's pretty streaky for just 2005 bets.

Cool, thanks! All the bets I do for profit are on 49.5, even tho I've had more lose streaks I am standing a profit. Awesoome.

[dooglus]

     11 W
     12 L
     13 L

That's pretty streaky for just 2005 bets.

Cool, thanks! All the bets I do for profit are on 49.5, even tho I've had more lose streaks I am standing a profit. Awesoome.

You often see that for martingale bettors.  It doesn't matter the length of the streaks so long as they can survive them; they'll be profitable until they came to a streak that busts them.

[infested999]

Code:

00:49:59 (60520) <bryony> Doog: add some adobe flash animation. I want to see actual dice roll

And here beings the demise of JD

Code:

01:00:25 (60520) <bryony> Why do canadians hate iPads?
01:00:39 (442) <dirtysocks> they want it in french
01:00:57 (442) <dirtysocks> tableau d'I
01:01:20 (60520) <bryony> Is it true that Canada is secretly planning to invade the USA?

[Dabs]

But to see an investment fund develop around it makes me laugh out loud

I think it's interesting to see all this develop and I really do wish them good luck. 

This all started for the lulz. It's like a running gag or joke or something. Now, why 12 people actually sent me some bitcoins, that is interesting. The name came up because it was a nice acronym, and someone else said "do not use the words gambling and security in the same sentence."

Anyway, everyone was (and now is) aware that while we have a greater than 99% chance of winning, there is that 1% chance of losing, and the longer we keep this up, (reverse gambler's fallacy?) the more likely we are to get to that "magic" 1% and lose in a streak.

But everyone knew that coming in.

Still, yes, I am a dragon (the golden one comes once every 144 years), and we have magic seeds.

It's also an excuse for me to come up with a collective "Group Bet". We plan to beat the largest bet, which is, to date, a 640 BTC bet that lost.

[Mooshire]

Can I has some magic seeds?

[Dabs]

I got the same as you, dooglus - except that you've included all 512 rolls, when it's only on the 9th that the first time 9 losses in a row can occur - so you can only include rolls 9 to 512. That changes the result slightly: (1 - 0.505**9) ** 504 = 0.3403612.

A couple of extras: Since this is a series of trials with the probability of 9 losses in a row occurring being 0.505**9, the number of rolls until 9 in a row occurs is a geometrically distributed variable for  X = 1, 2, 3... - which makes expected values and confidence intervals easy to calculate.

Expected number of rolls until 9 losses in a row = 1/ 0.505**9 = 468.142

95% confidence interval for number of rolls until 9 losses in a row = 12 to 1726 rolls.

If the attempt is made multiple times, 50% of the time 9 losses in a row will occur before 325 rolls.

I wouldn't use this as an investment vehicle

I used your formula, and I put it into a spreadsheet, and came up with this:

if p = the probability to win a game (the game percentage / 100 ) and n=number of losses in a row, then:
* The average number of loss runs until the next expected number of losses in a row: (1-p)^(1-1/p)/p
* The average number of loss runs until the next n losses in a row: ((1 - p)^-n)/p
* The average number of loss runs until the next greater than n run of losses in a row: (1 - p)^-(n+1)

Code:

p          n   next     next n         greater n
0.877779   5   1.5266    41,772.0366     300,002.5896 
0.877779   6   1.5266   341,774.6261   2,454,591.1878 

Would you be so kind as to tell me what this means? I don't quite get "The average number of loss runs until the next ..."

The numbers are in order of your formulas. p, n, next expected, next n, next greater.

[dooglus]

while we have a greater than 99% chance of winning, there is that 1% chance of losing

Nobody could say you're not giving this at least 101% effort. 

[organofcorti]

I got the same as you, dooglus - except that you've included all 512 rolls, when it's only on the 9th that the first time 9 losses in a row can occur - so you can only include rolls 9 to 512. That changes the result slightly: (1 - 0.505**9) ** 504 = 0.3403612.

A couple of extras: Since this is a series of trials with the probability of 9 losses in a row occurring being 0.505**9, the number of rolls until 9 in a row occurs is a geometrically distributed variable for  X = 1, 2, 3... - which makes expected values and confidence intervals easy to calculate.

Expected number of rolls until 9 losses in a row = 1/ 0.505**9 = 468.142

95% confidence interval for number of rolls until 9 losses in a row = 12 to 1726 rolls.

If the attempt is made multiple times, 50% of the time 9 losses in a row will occur before 325 rolls.

I wouldn't use this as an investment vehicle

I used your formula, and I put it into a spreadsheet, and came up with this:

if p = the probability to win a game (the game percentage / 100 ) and n=number of losses in a row, then:
* The average number of loss runs until the next expected number of losses in a row: (1-p)^(1-1/p)/p
* The average number of loss runs until the next n losses in a row: ((1 - p)^-n)/p
* The average number of loss runs until the next greater than n run of losses in a row: (1 - p)^-(n+1)

Code:

p          n   next     next n         greater n
0.877779   5   1.5266    41,772.0366     300,002.5896 
0.877779   6   1.5266   341,774.6261   2,454,591.1878 

Would you be so kind as to tell me what this means? I don't quite get "The average number of loss runs until the next ..."

The numbers are in order of your formulas. p, n, next expected, next n, next greater.

It's an excel exploit, and now all your coin belong to us!!1! Bwahahahhaa!!! etc.

All the information you need is in these three posts:

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/07/142-some-notes-about-just-dicecom.html
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/07/143-primer-on-advanced-martingale.html
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/07/144-some-notes-about-just-dicecom.html

To answer your last question, "loss runs" are series of losses in a row before a win, for 0, 1, 2, 3 ... For example, if you're tossing a coin, a head run of HHHT is 3, and a head run of T is zero. A "loss run" is just the same as a martingale sequence, and an analysis based on loss runs was how I intuitively understood martingale sequences, and how I thought everyone else would.

However I'm not a gambler, and the first quote shows me that you're interested in probabilities based on rolls, not loss runs. So the spreadsheet you made and the functions I posted are of no use to you.

[Dabs]

while we have a greater than 99% chance of winning, there is that 1% chance of losing

Nobody could say you're not giving this at least 101% effort. 

Thanks? hehhehe. It's been fun so far ... (it's all fun until you lose, as the saying goes.)

To answer your last question, "loss runs" are series of losses in a row before a win, for 0, 1, 2, 3 ... For example, if you're tossing a coin, a head run of HHHT is 3, and a head run of T is zero. A "loss run" is just the same as a martingale sequence, and an analysis based on loss runs was how I intuitively understood martingale sequences, and how I thought everyone else would.

However I'm not a gambler, and the first quote shows me that you're interested in probabilities based on rolls, not loss runs. So the spreadsheet you made and the functions I posted are of no use to you.

I'm also not a gambler until recently. I am interested in both the probabilities and the loss runs, now that you have defined it. So you mean to say, that at 87.7779% chance to win, I need to get (on average) 300,000 loss runs? Meaning, 300,000 martingale sequences before I hit a 6 loss streak?

If my inputs are as follows:
p = 0.877779
n = 5

Then,
The average number of loss runs until the next expected number of losses in a row: 1.5266
The average number of loss runs until the next 5 losses in a row: 41,772.0366
The average number of loss runs until the next greater than 5 run of losses in a row: 300,002.5896

So, a loss run is any martingale sequence? Not including just 1 loss. That means at least 2 losses in a row? Or does loss run mean any sequence of losses, including a single loss?

I read all three posts of your blog multiple times, and I'm still trying to get exactly what you mean. (I also read a lot of your other posts.)

In case you are not aware, I did a "live" experiment on the site, where I lost 6 times in a row twice, the first time after about 800,000 rolls, and the second time after another 492,000 rolls.

According to the same formulas (and even other formulas from other websites) the probabilities of a 7 loss streak or run at this chance to win is extremely low, which I took and interpreted as, the 6th roll in these two sequences are most probably the last to lose, the next one (the 7th) will most likely win.

That was true with the first time. On this second time, I still don't know yet if it will win since I have not yet made the 7th roll. However, since the average number of loss runs until the next greater than 6 run of losses in a row is about 2.4 million, and I've only rolled 1.3 million times, I think I'm not going to lose the next roll.

I also understand that, they keep saying all rolls are independent and dice have no memory, and assuming that, I still have an 87.7779% chance the next roll will win.

[templerunAI]

Here goes my design, still under development. I am also making a theme switcher.

Looks like: (TRY IT TO SEE MORE!)

https://i.imgur.com/VbU6Oqm.png

TRY IT! CSS:
v0.1.0 : http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=5GU2Q7Yg
v0.1.1 : http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=cZWurEt7

How to apply?

• Open the link and copy ALL the contents as it is
• Open Chrome Dev tools with Ctrl+Shift+J
• Go to "Sources" Tab
• On the left side "Sources", in the "stylesheets" part, double click 'dice.css'.
• Select everything in the dice.css file and replace it with the contents you just copied in 1st step. (the CSS)
• ???
• Profit!

Enjoy!! Donate: 12952zrjV5pf5SNYKste75ctr6AXKAS6j8 (JD deposit address)

In the works:

• Theme Switcher
• Theme without betting buttons, for investors
• Dark Theme
• Dark Neon Theme
• Color Scheme changes based on how well you are doing, would need JS!
• Suggest more?

[wolverine.ks]

how about ....

• a theme that changes color based on how well you are doing?
• a theme without betting buttons (for the investors)