Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[dooglus]

The second just-dice implements video recording to provide provably fairness is the day that I will bet.

How is video recording provably fair?

You need to read his thread...  He runs a dice site where the 'provably fair' is done by videoing himself looking up the roll on random.org.  People have actually played, despite this being clearly ridiculous.  And he has failed to provide the promised weekly videos.

But it's all OK, probably, because it's funny.

He will reply to this (and any criticism) with "thanks for your support".  It's like a running joke.

[HollowIP]

The second just-dice implements video recording to provide provably fairness is the day that I will bet.

I like your signature.

It's like something from 4chan where if you throw 2013 at the end of something, then it must be true.

[dooglus]

The second [...] is the day [...].

That's insanity. 

[Mooshire]

Do you have inputs.io withdraws yet?

[dooglus]

Do you have inputs.io withdraws yet?

No.  I'll add that asap though.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Do you have inputs.io withdraws yet?

No.  I'll add that asap though.

You have been saying that for ages

[iANDROID]

Do you have inputs.io withdraws yet?

No.  I'll add that asap though.

You have been saying that for ages

Pick one: http://developerexcuses.com/

[petrescuerz]

Do you have inputs.io withdraws yet?

No.  I'll add that asap though.

You have been saying that for ages

Pick one: http://developerexcuses.com/

That feature was slated for phase two

[organofcorti]

Do you have inputs.io withdraws yet?

No.  I'll add that asap though.

You have been saying that for ages

Pick one: http://developerexcuses.com/

That feature was slated for phase two

So you're Deb? Previously, I'd thought Dooglus must have hired a Romanian developer by the name of Erz Petrescu.

[Zaih]

Some how got a balance of 0.01 out of no where 

Thanks Doog if that was you 

[Boelens]

Some how got a balance of 0.01 out of no where 

Thanks Doog if that was you 

I quickly checked my J-D, sadly no 0.01 BTC =P.

[001sonkit]

Do you have inputs.io withdraws yet?

No.  I'll add that asap though.

You have been saying that for ages

Pick one: http://developerexcuses.com/

Thanks for sharing that, now  ican delay my bot coding pace lol (TF will be sad )

[ghibly79]

Custom theme ideas mentioned in chat...

• change cursor to harpoon when whale starts betting
• change background to ocean waves when whale starts betting
• flash 'all bets' tab when whale starts betting

Aahahahha lovely

[dooglus]

Some how got a balance of 0.01 out of no where 

Thanks Doog if that was you 

It was.  And you're welcome.

[Dabs]

This is what I sent to DIGS about a week ago. (DIGS = Dabs Investment Gambling Security).. The name and the entire project is just for the lulz.

For reference, the first bet of this kind is also in this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg2657456#msg2657456

Ok, again, as I have just informed you all, we hit the 6 loss streak. Here is the screen capture:



dooglus was also kind enough to make us this graph:



From the graph, the first dip in the first square was my first 5 loss streak. I was alone. The second dip in the 5th square was my first 6 loss streak, that everyone knows now, were someone loaned me 11 coins to get the win, then promptly sent all the profits to him.

Then the first investor sent me a PM and gave me 2.5. So I put in 1 of my own again, then the rest of you came in.

The last part in the 7th square is our nose dive. This is where we are right now.

Now, here are some more information regarding this 6th bet.

1. This is the 2nd time it has happened. The first time was 842001 rolls in. This time it is at roll 1334413 or exactly 492412 rolls after the first.

2. This is expected. We were actually waiting for this. I just did not expect it to happen so much sooner and took the risk of gaining back the lost 1 BTC, which we did gain back, then promptly lost it all.

After 7 days, whether or not we reach the target, I will post on the just-dice thread and offer the 7th bet (and the next run of 400k rolls) to the public. Those will be accounted for separately. The original investors start with whatever we get back (or a little bit more)

Hi all gamblers. This is the public "opening" of my second 7th bet after a 6 loss streak on 87.7779% chance to win. We all start on the 2nd run with one giant big 7th bet.

After two days, I send another update to all of us on our progress. For whoever is sending 92 BTC now, I will promptly send you back 100 BTC after 2 days. You can then re-invest it if you wish, but I like to start smaller.

The max profit of 395 BTC allows for a bet as high as 3089 BTC on 87.7779% chance to win.

I know you whales out there have 64 or 128 because I saw you gambling it. Unless you've already lost all of that... You're gonna gamble it anyway on 50%, this is a better option, especially right now we are at the 7th bet.

The deposit address is the same:

15mVXFwoVZNh9HyoAvv4zBUfYoS2ktx2pP

Goes directly to just-dice.

If you send from a wallet you control (you can sign bitcoin messages with it) please sign the message and PM (or email) the transaction.

Otherwise, PM (or email) me what you intend to send first (include a random looking amount of satoshis to distinguish your deposit from others), then when I confirm, go ahead and send it.

The deadline is 1 week from now, or about August 13, 2013, Tuesday.

I already have contributions totaling 10 BTC and I have a pledge from another person to send another 20 BTC. The goal is to collect at least 92.

For reference, the chance of a 7 loss streak happening is 0.00004074% so there is a 99.99995926% chance of it not happening.

My interpretation of that is the 7th bet has a 99.99995926% chance to win.

I must add that several people have told me that:

No... the odds of winning the 7th bet are the same as every other bet you place.  Each event is independent and is not correlated to any other event.

Then someone else said this:

And what were the chances of 10 heads in a row when you look back after the whole sequence? 1/1024. In hindsight, when the event has happened, we can of course pretend that the probability is 1. But that's not really a probability, because probabilities are used to account for uncertain future events and not past events that are certain.

The 50/50 chance for a portion of coin toss sequence is temporary. A priori, the probability of the 10 loss sequence is 1/1024. In retrospect, the probability of any 10 loss sequence, materialized or not, is 1/1024.

Probability is a tricky bitch, it doesn't stay put where logic dictates it should. That instability is of course because it is a human crafted model and not part of reality as such. We can talk about it for decades and write books about its metaphysics. But according to my view, the probability of his full sequence of 7 losses to materialize was, and always will remain, 1 in ~2 million (and it didn't happen Smiley).

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg2658989#msg2658989

Anyway ...

Immediately after the 7th bet, I start a run for 100k rolls which should last about 2 days (at 50k rolls per day.)

After that I return all the coins everyone sent, plus interest just for the 7th bet, of approximately 8.6%.

If we used exactly 92 BTC, I will send back 100 BTC to those who contributed to the 92 BTC 7th bet.

If we used more, because more people sent (or because it came from the public), I will use a 92 / 100 ratio, which is about 8.6% (it is exactly *1.08695652173913)

As usual, the standard disclaimer, this is gambling, we can possibly lose it all at any time, etc etc.

So while the odds are very high to win, there is still that teeny weeny tiny chance that we lose it all on the first 6 rolls after the 7th bet.

Dabs

Note: You are in this private message list (and email) because you are either an investor, a speculator, or a curious dung beetle watching the milky way galaxy. You also are someone who believes in my magic seeds or dragon babies, you are a whale, a dolphin, an orca or a fish; some or all of us have been inflicted with Gambler's Fallacy.

P.S. To those who have "trust issues" PM me and I will reply privately, so you know you can trust me with your bitcoins. I promise not to steal them. I do promise, that I will gamble them according to the steps described above.

TL;DR = Who wants to bet, that my next bet is going to win? Don't answer, just send your coins and PM me.

[vlees]

I think I already told you once that you should prepare for 6 losses in a row. If you would simulate it you would find out that that amount of losses in a row comes up pretty often.

[Dabs]

I think I already told you once that you should prepare for 6 losses in a row. If you would simulate it you would find out that that amount of losses in a row comes up pretty often.

Yes I did vlees. All was going according to plan, sort of. Simulations and probabilities make us prepared for 6, 7, 8 and even more losses in a row at this percent chance to win.

I was able to download a lucky number simulation of about 27 million rolls, which according to the guy who made the file uses the same luckynumber generation method of just dice.

In the little study I made, 6 losses happens 85 times, 7 losses happens 5 times, 8 losses happens once. In 27 million rolls. If I played the 98% chance to win game, then 3 losses happens 198 times, 4 losses happens 4 times, and 5 doesn't happen at all. Maybe my sample is too small, I'd need maybe 200 million rolls or something. But 98% pays out too little, or I'd estimate it at less than 1.3% per month, not counting delays for dust bets. (I'd need a 1000 BTC bankroll to overcome the dust speed limit.)

For this particular case, I'm counting on 7 losses in a row not happening just yet. It will eventually happen, but we will be prepared for that one (maybe after 27 million rolls, I'm just at 1.3 million rolls.)

Incidentally, dooglus, it takes about 20 seconds to read through that file from my laptop's hard drive. However, it takes a little bit longer to generate the same number of rolls. Perhaps the writing part takes longer? But I think you would save CPU time from the site if the lucky numbers of previous rolls are stored and not generated all the time, every time someone looks up a bet id.

[Anduck]

I think I already told you once that you should prepare for 6 losses in a row. If you would simulate it you would find out that that amount of losses in a row comes up pretty often.

Yes I did vlees. All was going according to plan, sort of. Simulations and probabilities make us prepared for 6, 7, 8 and even more losses in a row at this percent chance to win.

I was able to download a lucky number simulation of about 27 million rolls, which according to the guy who made the file uses the same luckynumber generation method of just dice.

In the little study I made, 6 losses happens 85 times, 7 losses happens 5 times, 8 losses happens once. In 27 million rolls. If I played the 98% chance to win game, then 3 losses happens 198 times, 4 losses happens 4 times, and 5 doesn't happen at all. Maybe my sample is too small, I'd need maybe 200 million rolls or something. But 98% pays out too little, or I'd estimate it at less than 1.3% per month, not counting delays for dust bets. (I'd need a 1000 BTC bankroll to overcome the dust speed limit.)

For this particular case, I'm counting on 7 losses in a row not happening just yet. It will eventually happen, but we will be prepared for that one (maybe after 27 million rolls, I'm just at 1.3 million rolls.)

Incidentally, dooglus, it takes about 20 seconds to read through that file from my laptop's hard drive. However, it takes a little bit longer to generate the same number of rolls. Perhaps the writing part takes longer? But I think you would save CPU time from the site if the lucky numbers of previous rolls are stored and not generated all the time, every time someone looks up a bet id.

You trying to make gambling profitable and riskless? Or wut is this all about.. minimizing risks?

[Rannasha]

No matter what complicated strategy you use, you're better off making a single straight-up bet for the amount you aim to win.

If your goal is to gain 20% per month with a high-probability Martingale-style strategy, your chances are improved by just making a single bet at 1.2x profit each month with the entire capital. The higher the probability you set in your strategy, the less likely it is to hit a losing streak long enough to break your bank, but the more runs you need to do to achieve the same profit, offsetting the reduced chance to lose.

You can run the numbers and see this quite clearly, but there's also an intuitive way to think about it. JD takes, on average, 1% of the amount you bet. If you make a single bet, you have an expected 1% loss on the amount wagered. If you use a Martingale-style strategy, you bet the same money more than once. To achieve, say, 20% profit, your total amount wagered will be more with a Martingale-style strategy than with a single 1.2x profit bet. And since in the long run, you expect your losses to reach 1% of the total amount wagered, the Martingale-style strategy loses. (the 20% profit is an example, it holds true for other values as well)

tldr: Dabs, if you set a monthly profit goal, I can outperform your strategy by placing a single bet each month (if I had magic beans, special seeds, dragons and all the yada yada of course).

[vlees]

I can outperform your strategy by placing a single bet each month (if I had magic beans, special seeds, dragons and all the yada yada of course).

Are they going to make a giant beenstalk?

@Rannasha, do you have a giant beanstalk? If so, I would like to throw my money at you.