Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[drawingthesun]

Also - has anyone noticed that despite the 1 percent edge JD has never made a 1 % profit? It was about half that - before the current fiasco - now we know why.

This part is untrue. Before Nakowa we hit almost 2% profit. I have been with the site since the beginning and it was certainly over 1% for the first few weeks until Nakowa came.

[mberg2007]

What we have here is a situation where someone appears to be actually beating the house edge over many thousands of bets. And this is intriguing, because from a statistical point of view this should not be possible. You can't win a coin toss came if the coin is balanced towards the house, no matter what system you use.

-Michael

It's called variance.

Are you saying that if I toss a coin 1000 times, I won't - on average, hit 500 heads and 500 tails?

If you are saying that, then there can't be a 50/50 chance of heads and tails. Both statements can't be true at the same time.

And no I'm not saying that if you play 3 times you couldn't win 3 times, that will surely happen. But at JD we are not talking about 3 bets, we are talking about thousands of plays where the house edge seeming doesn't provide the house with any edge at all.

This "whale" seems to be playing martingale with 100 btc bets. Martingale is *not* a winning strategy long term, otherwise anyone could walk into a casino, sit down by the roulette and gain financial freedom. Eventually red will come up 12 times in a row, and you will lose your bankroll.

So how is this whale winning long term by using a martingale strategy? It's certainly not because of "variance", the number of bets and the casino bankroll drawdown is just too consistent and too deep. This looks more and more like someone found some statistical exploit in the way lucky numbers are generated based on nonces, hash values and transaction id's. It looks deliberate, not just like a guy with a really big wallet or a lot of luck.

-Michael

[Bugpowder]

We profit 76 % of the time over 1,000 bets - not 50.8 % of the time like with 1 bet.

THAT'S being an investor, not a gambler.

Also - has anyone noticed that despite the 1 percent edge JD has never made a 1 % profit? It was about half that - before the current fiasco - now we know why.

Variance. Lets lower it by refusing big bets.

I'm sorry, but this is the biggest load of BS I have ever read. Clearly you have not done the math.

If you make 1000 bets with a 1% house edge, you will win 490 times and the house will win 510 times. The house will not win 76% of the time.

Variance means nothing as far as house edge. Playing many tiny bets and playing one huge bet provides precisely the same house income over time. As a gambler, you will have no advantage by placing smaller bets and winning and losing small amounts than by placing a single large bet. Over time it's just a matter of scale.

A casino runs the risk of losing the bankroll only if they don't cap the size of their maximum bets. Because obviously there's only a 51% chance of winning that bet, and thus a 49% chance of going bust from the casino's point of view. But JD does have these limits. Noone is placing bets of 1000 BTC or more. The max win is 1% of the invested capital, which makes good sense. There is no reason to limit that further.

What we have here is a situation where someone appears to be actually beating the house edge over many thousands of bets. And this is intriguing, because from a statistical point of view this should not be possible. You can't win a coin toss came if the coin is balanced towards the house, no matter what system you use.

-Michael

House edge is 50.5% vs 49.5%

[b!z]

Nakowa has said he is taking the site to -2000.. divest bitches!

And why should we listen to him? He hasn't kept promises in the past.  

@mberg2007: sometimes 500 rolls might not be enough. maybe 5,000, or 50,000 are needed for you to see the 50/50 you are looking for.

[01BTC10]

Nakowa has said he is taking the site to -2000.. divest bitches!

And why should we listen to him? He hasn't kept promises in the past.  

@mberg2007: sometimes 500 rolls might not be enough. maybe 5,000, or 50,000 are needed for you to see the 50/50 you are looking for.

More like 1 million roll of the same bet size

[Boelens]

Seems the loss has gone down a bit, now at about -400.

[golikcoin]

today i recieved 0.6 from primedice for the bonus, but i lost 0.7 in a single autobet

[Bugpowder]

Seems the loss has gone down a bit, now at about -400.

Now +2950... with 2000BTC deposit incoming in the next block!

[01BTC10]

Now watch all investors getting ecstatic until next bad run.

[mechs]

Now watch all investors getting ecstatic until next bad run.

I'm not estatic - I feel like he is trying to get people to invest more by making it look like his system breaking down only to have more coins to take with a higher max profit.  Excuse my skepticism but I have J-D investor PTSD.

[Coornail]

Now watch all investors getting ecstatic until next bad run.

I'm not estatic - I feel like he is trying to get people to invest more by making it look like his system breaking down only to have more coins to take with a higher max profit.  Excuse my skepticism but I have J-D investor PTSD.

So he/she can loose and win intentionally? I'm not sure this is how gambling works...

[Professor James Moriarty]

 Tow just left , with profit -5k down

[DumbFruit]

Some guy just won at least 5000 bitcoins on JustDice.
In B4 investor rage.



edit- damn it Professor!

[andrew12]

[4mherewego]

Some guy just won at least 5000 bitcoins on JustDice.
In B4 investor rage.



edit- damn it Professor!

I don't mind, I want more action! This is almost as fun as gambling myself

[freedomno1]

Even investing can be fun 

[Cluster2k]

Prepare for a new load of players and investors to arrive shortly.  One of Australia's largest online news sites has just featured a major headline story about just-dice.com and Nakowa.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/the-biggest-bitcoin-win-in-gambling-history/story-e6frfro0-1226725824027

[dooglus]

Prepare for a new load of players and investors to arrive shortly.  One of Australia's largest online news sites has just featured a major headline story about just-dice.com and Nakowa.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/the-biggest-bitcoin-win-in-gambling-history/story-e6frfro0-1226725824027

This bit made me laugh:

'the whole system is "probably fair,"'

[mechs]

Prepare for a new load of players and investors to arrive shortly.  One of Australia's largest online news sites has just featured a major headline story about just-dice.com and Nakowa.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/the-biggest-bitcoin-win-in-gambling-history/story-e6frfro0-1226725824027

This bit made me laugh:
Y.
'the whole system is "probably fair,"'

Lots of inaccuracies in there but still it good publicity I suppose.

[nrd525]

It should be possible to run simulations to predict the likelihood of various profit/loss outcomes given a range of bets.  You could take data from the site's history (either the entire history or just a fixed period) and calculate the probability of various sizes of profits/losses.

The main advantage of this is that you don't have to do complex math and simulations are easy to do.