i'd have the same question, as this seems to come out of the blue, without citing any proper analysis
"proper" and "analysis" don't usually go together in this context.
No sober analysis ever really predicts a rate of more than a dozen percentage points up or down; outside of that is the field where pure speculation comes into play, because they are relatively rare cases and there isn't enough data to even build models for "proper" analysis.
The circumstances and controlling factors on these more volatile issues are too individual and too rare for real analysis to have much of anything to work with. Instead we tend to have speculators falling back on games a bit more sophisticated than mere numerology but not backed up by any serious theory.
Once you're dealing with something that is outside the range where there's enough data to verify theories and do analysis, you either get the heck out or trust your gut instincts. There will be a thousand people doing something they call analysis, but ask yourself how much data they can possibly have that addresses the unique aspects of the issue at hand and you will usually find that it is wiser to ignore them and just pay attention to literal on-the-street indications of public awareness and sentiment.
Yesterday I was at a junk shop and I saw one of those hand-scribbled flyers about some garage sale, which said, "Bitcoin accepted!" And that on-the-street indication, to me, was a heck of a lot more significant than anything someone pretending to be an "analyst" says.
