Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[dooglus]

That sounds very unlikely.  With a max bet of 500 BTC that's 2 bets per second for 24 hours.

Mea Culpa
That one peak day in September averaged over 1000 BTC per MINUTE for a 24 hour day.

We had a guy playing pretty heavily for an hour yesterday, but he got nowhere near nakowa levels.

Here's how his play affected the site's expected profit:



ie. in one hour the expected profit went up 40 30 BTC, so he wagered around 4000 3000 BTC.  That's 1000 BTC every 15 20 minutes, or about 15 20 times slower than nakowa.

Edit: here's how it affected the actual profit over the same time period:



Edit2: 105 - 75 = 30, not 40!

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[boumalo]

maybe there is a simple explanation for the decreasing turnover at just-dice.
In the northern hemisphere it´s summer and that means people spend more time away from their computers
and are busy with other stuff.

I think the simplest explanation is that there are a limited number of people who:

a) have a lot of Bitcoins
b) are willing to risk them on a gambling site
c) know about Just-Dice

Most of those people already lost their coins.

In the early days we had a number of people who came to the site to bankroll it and who ended up gambling instead. It's a kind of natural selection that the people who held on to their coins are the people who are able to resist that temptation; the strongest survived and are less willing to take risks with their share of the bankroll.

We still get some who do it, but less than we used to.

It is a very interesting explanation. Don't you think some players buy bitcoins to gamble? And what is your take on advertising the website?

[PacoMartin]

I think the simplest explanation is that there are a limited number of people who:...

So bottom line if you see 1,553,358 wagered for your whole second year, instead of in one day, that's something that seems OK with you.

If it was me, I would like my thrills in smaller doses, say a couple of 50K days to spice it up.

[PacoMartin]

http://www.borntobelive.com/assets/spice-girls.jpg

Outside of that 24 day time period there were only three days when more than 50K was wagered.
124,771
59,077
50,860

That's a little bit of spice. The investors may have a good day or a bad day. But when somebody wagers 3 million in 24 days, that is eating ghost peppers.
http://www.ishopindian.com/images/D/ghost_pepper_c.jpg

[alex21btc]

How to withdraw profit fom my investing?
And what is the minimum invest withdraw?

[JoTheKhan]

This Rufus guy is on a roll, anyone know if he's a regular?

[PacoMartin]

So the final day of the first year comes to a close with a big $4.5M wagered (highest since February 14).

A total of 51.9% of the wagering occurs on just 8 days with each day over 100K BTC .
Fri, Oct 11, 13   100,678
Tue, Oct 1, 13   123,961
Wed, Jul 17, 13   124,771
Sat, Sep 21, 13   140,897
Tue, Sep 24, 13   150,827
Wed, Sep 25, 13   176,993
Mon, Sep 23, 13   384,966
Sun, Sep 29, 13   1,553,358

There are 65 days over 10K BTC wagered, and a median of 3905 BTC per day. Only 6 days have less than 1K BTC wagered.

[boumalo]

http://www.borntobelive.com/assets/spice-girls.jpg

Outside of that 24 day time period there were only three days when more than 50K was wagered.
124,771
59,077
50,860

That's a little bit of spice. The investors may have a good day or a bad day. But when somebody wagers 3 million in 24 days, that is eating ghost peppers.
http://www.ishopindian.com/images/D/ghost_pepper_c.jpg

When someone is wagering 3million, you know the house is very probably getting way lower than the expected revenue

So the final day of the first year comes to a close with a big $4.5M wagered (highest since February 14).

A total of 51.9% of the wagering occurs on just 8 days with each day over 100K BTC .
Fri, Oct 11, 13   100,678
Tue, Oct 1, 13   123,961
Wed, Jul 17, 13   124,771
Sat, Sep 21, 13   140,897
Tue, Sep 24, 13   150,827
Wed, Sep 25, 13   176,993
Mon, Sep 23, 13   384,966
Sun, Sep 29, 13   1,553,358

There are 65 days over 10K BTC wagered, and a median of 3905 BTC per day. Only 6 days have less than 1K BTC wagered.

How do speculate on the future profits then?

3000BTC/day wagered so 1000BTC profit/month seems like a reasonable prediction; investors hope for way more though, the variance is big so an expected 3000 wagered everyday can turn into a profit of 3000BTC in a month or a loss of 1000BTC

[shorena]

How to withdraw profit fom my investing?
And what is the minimum invest withdraw?

Invest -> Edit -> Either divest all or enter an amount in front of divest. The minimum you can divest is 0.001 BTC. -> Divested amount is now on your balance and you can either play with it or Withdraw (O)

[itamidensha]

so..... my phone died and I can't find where I wrote down the 2FA key... is there an account recovery process?

[boumalo]

How to withdraw profit fom my investing?
And what is the minimum invest withdraw?

Invest -> Edit -> Either divest all or enter an amount in front of divest. The minimum you can divest is 0.001 BTC. -> Divested amount is now on your balance and you can either play with it or Withdraw (O)

I wonder how many players divest all their investment and risk it all on one bet x2 then invest again

It must happen often, it is tempting to go from 2BTC invested to 4BTC or 50 to 100 in 10seconds then you can enjoy a revenue twice bigger

[blizeH]

I did that with my Dogecoin and got very lucky, ended up re-investing around 10x what I initially put in E:

[shorena]

How to withdraw profit fom my investing?
And what is the minimum invest withdraw?

Invest -> Edit -> Either divest all or enter an amount in front of divest. The minimum you can divest is 0.001 BTC. -> Divested amount is now on your balance and you can either play with it or Withdraw (O)

I wonder how many players divest all their investment and risk it all on one bet x2 then invest again

It must happen often, it is tempting to go from 2BTC invested to 4BTC or 50 to 100 in 10seconds then you can enjoy a revenue twice bigger

Been there, lost it all, recovered, now its locked down (thanks to doog for that feature)
I didnt straight double up though. I tried to martingale my way up.

So the main account is just for investing and whenever I feel like gambling I just make another account.

[boumalo]

How to withdraw profit fom my investing?
And what is the minimum invest withdraw?

Invest -> Edit -> Either divest all or enter an amount in front of divest. The minimum you can divest is 0.001 BTC. -> Divested amount is now on your balance and you can either play with it or Withdraw (O)

I wonder how many players divest all their investment and risk it all on one bet x2 then invest again

It must happen often, it is tempting to go from 2BTC invested to 4BTC or 50 to 100 in 10seconds then you can enjoy a revenue twice bigger

Been there, lost it all, recovered, now its locked down (thanks to doog for that feature)
I didnt straight double up though. I tried to martingale my way up.

So the main account is just for investing and whenever I feel like gambling I just make another account.

It is good for the site that some investors do that because it increases the gaming volume but it must hurt when you lose it all!!

I did that with my Dogecoin and got very lucky, ended up re-investing around 10x what I initially put in E:

Wow x10 is huge, lock it up!

[PacoMartin]

How do speculate on the future profits then?

Last 250 days only 1,164,172 BTC were wagered (average 4657 per day) and the BTC/USD went from $126 to $605. So the EV is 46.57 BTC minus 10% commission per day. I don't know if there is any way to see how close the return was in these 250 days.

Profit changed from 4,615.47 to 18,945.02 or 14,329.55 over those 250 days (or 57.3 BTC per day before commission). So that is 1.23% of amount wagered.

But including the first 115 days it is .3568%.

So I would say that it would be pretty much speculation on future profits, but you can't do any better than 1% of the amount wagered.  But if it stays relatively small bets, then you shouldn't lose money. And you may make a lot if you get more people like mechs.

Investors want high returns and low risk. That's why you should buy stocks low and sell them high.

[boumalo]

How do speculate on the future profits then?

Last 250 days only 1,164,172 BTC were wagered (average 4657 per day) and the BTC/USD went from $126 to $605. So the EV is 46.57 BTC minus 10% commission per day. I don't know if there is any way to see how close the return was in these 250 days.

Profit changed from 4,615.47 to 18,945.02 or 14,329.55 over those 250 days (or 57.3 BTC per day before commission). So that is 1.23% of amount wagered.

But including the first 115 days it is .3568%.

So I would say that it would be pretty much speculation on future profits, but you can't do any better than 1% of the amount wagered.  But if it stays relatively small bets, then you shouldn't lose money. And you may make a lot if you get more people like mechs.

Investors want high returns and low risk. That's why you should buy stocks low and sell them high.

To speculate on future profits we can use past amount wagered and expect 1% but the variance is tremendous

The most probable is a return of 15-35% for next year; -100% is possible and -15%/+70% is not out of question either

[PacoMartin]

The most probable is a return of 15-35% for next year; -100% is possible and -15%/+70% is not out of question either

Return was 14,329.55 over the final 250 days of the year. Assuming an average bankroll of 50K that is a return of 28.66% over 250 days, or 41.84% for 365 days. Which is also remarkably close to what dooglus reported for the year (43%).

Since the last 4 months have been calmer, I think you guess of 15-35% may be more accurate. But anything is possible. Somebody could lose big and the return could go much higher, or even negative.

I mean if you look at 43% return in a year in bitcoins, and 500% increase in value of bitcoins to USD, I don't think you would have to look long and hard to find an investment that did better than that, that didn't involve the armed takeover of a small country, and holding the king for ransom.

[BayAreaCoins]

Site down for anyone else? I can't get JD or DD atm.

all good now. Strange

[SebastianJu]

so..... my phone died and I can't find where I wrote down the 2FA key... is there an account recovery process?

You might ask dooglus but it looks bad since he already mentioned that it makes no sense to set back 2FA if asked because that would be the same way working for a hacker. But maybe youre lucky.

I lately, because of dooglus statement, dis- and reenabled all 2FA-Settings on all websites i use. And i noted down the code given on activation. With this code i can reestablish the things when i lose my phone. Thats how it should work normally and i suggest you do this everywhere you use 2FA. Its simply not worth risking your coins.

[itod]

so..... my phone died and I can't find where I wrote down the 2FA key... is there an account recovery process?

You might ask dooglus but it looks bad since he already mentioned that it makes no sense to set back 2FA if asked because that would be the same way working for a hacker. But maybe youre lucky.

I lately, because of dooglus statement, dis- and reenabled all 2FA-Settings on all websites i use. And i noted down the code given on activation. With this code i can reestablish the things when i lose my phone. Thats how it should work normally and i suggest you do this everywhere you use 2FA. Its simply not worth risking your coins.

+1 on this. I've switched phones recently without doing this, and ended up putting old phone back on just to get the 2FA codes out of it. Despite Google's claims that it has some methods of recovering the 2FA keys, in reality you are doomed if you have not noted down each one of them. To avoid the headache: never enable 2FA without backing the key somehow (photo the QR-code or something), and if you've already done that disable/re-enable - this time with backup.