Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[Bizmark13]

Sure he could leave Canada and go to Malta for example to continue the site but if he doesn't want to then that's OK as well. Who knows? Maybe he has friends or family living in Canada and doesn't want to leave them forever and is happy with the million or two that's he earned from Just-Dice. I know I certainly would be.

[1715019532]

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[1715019532]

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[PacoMartin]

As far as I can tell, doog would have made (by today's BTC market rate) over $1m in commission from JD - I doubt he's in a huge rush to sell just yet.

Since the site was already back to zero by October 5th, and by November 19th 1BTC= $600, so todays BTC market rate essentially applies.

Given 10% of final profit of 19,098.09848411 that would be over a million less any operational expenses. It's possible he made more since the cold wallet still has 10K in it, and the amount invested is roughly 5.5K.

But either way I wouldn't sell code at this point, unless someone was paying over 5000 BTC.


Personally, I would use 1.4% as the house edge, since that is the HE of pass line in craps. I think that 1% has to much volatility, and since you can't do better than 1.4% at a casino, just start there.

I also think the bankroll at roughly 50K was about twice as big as necessary for the game. There doesn't seem to be a market for gambling at MaxProfit of 250 BTC, so a smaller investor pool would be a richer and happier investment pool. You could auction off the right to invest, but perhaps it would be better to create another investment concept.

[21pilot]

Personally, I would use 1.4% as the house edge, since that is the HE of pass line in craps. I think that 1% has to much volatility, and since you can't do better than 1.4% at a casino, just start there.

with game theoretical optimal approach there are several casinos where black jack has a house advantage of only 0.17 %

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackjack#Rule_variations_and_their_consequences_for_the_house_edge

Of course not many real casinos (if any) offer single deck black jack anymore. I guess the standard is six decks at least where I live.
Nevertheless the true house advantage may be a bit higher due to other additional rules (rules for the situation when dealer hits a 17 ...)

[21pilot]

what also bothers me -> where is the majority of the just-dice bankroll going?
I assume that the majority of former investors are in BTC for the long run -> therefore I don´t expect many BTCs going to the exchanges.

Has anyone tried to following around some coins moving out of the hot wallet in the blockchain?
Big movements of coins to other dice sites with investment possibility?

Or asked more directly:
where are you taking your funds now   ?

[drawingthesun]

Dooglus, can I ask one thing please? Can you now release all the rolls with and release all the users secret server keys? So that we have a giant database of rolls to analyse. You could release the entire file as a torrent, I would seed.

Please do this for us, I have always wanted every roll, I'm a little bit of a data freak.

Also could this include all user nicknames, and if you have the logs, all the chats. It would be nice to see the chats when the really interesting bets were happening.

Please!

[IamNotSure]

where are you taking your funds now   ?

Sitting in a cold wallet... Quite depressed by the end of JD

Thx dooglus for the smooth mass divest operation. You lived up to your reputation.

[PacoMartin]

with game theoretical optimal approach there are several casinos where black jack has a house advantage of only 0.17 %

Of course not many real casinos (if any) offer single deck black jack anymore. I guess the standard is six decks at least where I live.

Well nobody would dare play single deck blackjack anymore. Original card counting could be done so efficiently that if you had a good couple of hands you could make a mint if the last part of the deck had a high count. Also with a full blackjack table you might run out of cards on the second deal, which means you would have to use a new deck after every deal.

But there are electronic games of blackjack which shuffle the decks after every deal so card counting is impossible. But with good basic strategy the HE is under 1%. Casinos usually make up the difference because most people don't play basic strategy, but prefer to play with their gut. But no casino today is going to let you play blackjack for the dollar equivalent of 250BTC.

I said that the best HE for a game of chance in a Brick and Mortar casino is 1.4141%. One casino in Vegas was famous because for decades if you bet $5 at 1.4141% they would let you bet up to $500 at zero house edge. But these are tricks. There are only 8 to 10 positions at the casino where you can do this, the thousands of other people in the casino all have to play games with terrible house edge. You can't offer a teaser game online, as there is no place to go. Your whales will bust you.

By October 5th of 2013 3.94 million BTC had been wagered. Applying the daily USD/BTC exchange to each days wagered I get $461.7 million. The estimates is that 2.5 million BTC were wagered by Nakowa. The peak wagering day was almost $200 million (over 1.5 million BTC) . The total profit had just returned to zero.

The entire rest of the year from October 5th only 1.4 million BTC were gambled. Of course that was more money in USD. But without the really big whale profit was well over the expected value of 1%.

Nakowa spent one long period controlling his bets so that they were 40 BTC or less, and was still winning. The surest defense is to raise HE a little. Although the number 1.98% and 2.0% has been suggested, dooglus seems to want to offer the best game on the web. A HE of 1.4% seems to be a good compromise.

The Old traditional casinos in downtown Las Vegas had about $6.7 billion in wagers in the last 12 months, but excluding slot machines it was $1.1 billion (consistent with JD). These casinos made $132 million on those games or (11.8%). So they made about 33X times the return as the 0.358918% of JD.

[01BTC10]

Got my investment back. Thanks for your integrity!

[jarlelin]

So long and thanks for all the fish, dooglus.

[infested999]

Code:

19:10:51 (1) <@dooglus> "steal or don't steal?"
19:11:16 (1) <@dooglus> doesn't seem like much of a dilemma - it's pretty clear cut which of those 2 is moral

[CoinDiver]

There are other jurisdictions... and servers are very easy to "relocate". Don't let the state oppress you.

[alex21btc]

I invested last week and now site is closed... 
I only earn 696 statoshi

And what now?
Is there any similar betting site with investing like this?

[suchmoon]

There are other jurisdictions... and servers are very easy to "relocate". Don't let the state oppress you.

I think dooglus is setting a nice example of "quit while you're ahead", should be familiar to all gamblers

Sure, he could host it elsewhere, or move to some warm island, but let's face it - it's very likely that the potential reward is not worth the risk.

Thank you dooglus for a great investment opportunity and a very orderly shutdown. Best of luck in whatever you decide to do next.

[PacoMartin]

Sure, he could host it elsewhere, or move to some warm island, but let's face it - it's very likely that the potential reward is not worth the risk.

I read somewhere that JD has some connection with Panama that made it legal. The potential reward of making a million dollars a year and the requirement to keep an apartment in Panama is not worth the risk? Por Que?

[suchmoon]

Sure, he could host it elsewhere, or move to some warm island, but let's face it - it's very likely that the potential reward is not worth the risk.

I read somewhere that JD has some connection with Panama that made it legal. The potential reward of making a million dollars a year and the requirement to keep an apartment in Panama is not worth the risk? Por Que?

Well it depends on what the risk actually is, but I'm willing to bet a satoshi that it is not trivial.

[CoinDiver]

There are places where the risk is trivial. With 50k btc invested, and those investors turning a significant profit (I turned 40% in less than a year), I'd say it's easily worth the effort. There is risk only if you don't put in the required effort.

[infested999]

I'm definitely interested in a site so PM me as well.  Personally after LTC I would look to just become the cryptsy of dice.  Add every coin under the sun.  I'm not a believer in any of them but profit is profit, turn the alt coins into BTC the day commission is taken.

[AcoinL.L.C]

I'm definitely interested in a site so PM me as well.  Personally after LTC I would look to just become the cryptsy of dice.  Add every coin under the sun.  I'm not a believer in any of them but profit is profit, turn the alt coins into BTC the day commission is taken.

Peerbet allows you to invest and they offer many different coins. Volume isn't as nice as Just-Dice but they have raffles / wheels as well with different house edges.

I only made a few thousand satoshi (Invested right before it closed) :/

Better to quit while your ahead, looks like Dooglus made over 1.5mill off the site, hopefully he can restart the site soon

[PacoMartin]

Well it depends on what the risk actually is, but I'm willing to bet a satoshi that it is not trivial.

I'd bet that you can't find a lawyer who can give you an honest assessment of the risk. I think there is a huge lack of legal precedent.

I also frankly don't think that the Canadian government is going to start with a site that makes less than 20,000 BTC a year. I think that they would go for a big fish first. And until they had passed a law recognizing the value of Bitcoins, I don't think they thought about it.

I didn't say "no risk", but I did say it's not worth just giving up without trying.

[suchmoon]

Well it depends on what the risk actually is, but I'm willing to bet a satoshi that it is not trivial.

I'd bet that you can't find a lawyer who can give you an honest assessment of the risk. I think there is a huge lack of legal precedent.

I also frankly don't think that the Canadian government is going to start with a site that makes less than 20,000 BTC a year. I think that they would go for a big fish first. And until they had passed a law recognizing the value of Bitcoins, I don't think they thought about it.

I didn't say "no risk", but I did say it's not worth just giving up without trying.

There is also an important component of personal risk tolerance. What is an acceptable risk for you or me may not be the case for someone else. What is a big reward for some, might be "meh" for others.