Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[dooglus]

The Just-Dice account just had its balance stolen, despite using a very secure password, google-authenticator, and GPG.

Your whole site is dodgy.

Wouldnt play here in a fit.

We used inputs.io to accept zero-confirmation deposits instantly with no risk.  To offset the counterparty risk of trusting inputs.io with client funds, we held a sizeable deposit from inputs which its owner couldn't withdraw.  When they lost 42 BTC of JD funds, we took the 42 BTC from the funds that were on deposit, so we risked and lost nothing.

Rather than indicating "dodginess", this is another example of how I take good care of investor funds.

Please elaborate on your reasons for suspicion for those of us who are not so savvy.

I was posting on his scam casino thread for a while in an attempt to warn vulnerable newbies that his casino cheats.  He has admitted this himself, so it's not contentious.  He locked the thread, then opened a new one which is "self moderated" meaning he can delete all criticism and continue ripping off the noobs.  For a long time I couldn't figure out how to warn them in the face of this censorship, but then it occurred to me - I could leave a negative trust rating.  Now the noobs see a big red warning next to every post he makes, and when they click it they see lots of people saying why.

I expect this big red warning is what triggered his post here.

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[drawingthesun]

Haha JustDice will soon have $8,000,000 profits on a bankroll of $60,000,000.

Amazing!

[Lohoris]

Thanks for your reply. Two questions. 42=42 bitcoins? What is TF?

A scammer?

[autotoss]

how many players from Russia? Do you share these stats?

[haightst]

The Just-Dice account just had its balance stolen, despite using a very secure password, google-authenticator, and GPG.

Your whole site is dodgy.

Wouldnt play here in a fit.

We used inputs.io to accept zero-confirmation deposits instantly with no risk.  To offset the counterparty risk of trusting inputs.io with client funds, we held a sizeable deposit from inputs which its owner couldn't withdraw.  When they lost 42 BTC of JD funds, we took the 42 BTC from the funds that were on deposit, so we risked and lost nothing.

Rather than indicating "dodginess", this is another example of how I take good care of investor funds.

Please elaborate on your reasons for suspicion for those of us who are not so savvy.

I was posting on his scam casino thread for a while in an attempt to warn vulnerable newbies that his casino cheats.  He has admitted this himself, so it's not contentious.  He locked the thread, then opened a new one which is "self moderated" meaning he can delete all criticism and continue ripping off the noobs.  For a long time I couldn't figure out how to warn them in the face of this censorship, but then it occurred to me - I could leave a negative trust rating.  Now the noobs see a big red warning next to every post he makes, and when they click it they see lots of people saying why.

I expect this big red warning is what triggered his post here.

doogster! gtfo bro !!!!~trust me take profits and run! *imho*   would i lie to you?

[nicolaennio]

So Dooglus, how much bitcoins were stolen to inputs.io that were belonging to Just-Dice investors? Will investors lose them?

Something along the lines of 42.  TF had previously agreed to put up some insurance money in the form of an investment that couldn't be touched.  Doog got the coins back from there.

Thanks for your reply. Two questions. 42=42 bitcoins? What is TF?

42 = 42 Bitcoins
TF = TradeFortress

Wow, so dooglus is always one step in front of problems!

[dooglus]

Wow, so dooglus is always one step in front of problems!

Yeah, it's suspicous.

Who ever could have predicted that an online Bitcoin wallet site might run into problems with hackers? 

[dooglus]

doogster! gtfo bro !!!!~trust me take profits and run! *imho*   would i lie to you?

> doogster!

An attempt at familiarity, possibly suggesting we're buddies, when all you've ever done is troll me?

> gtfo bro !!!!~

GTFO what?  The Internets in general?  These forums?  Why?

> trust me take profits and run!

I trust that you would take the profits and run if you could.

> *imho*   would i lie to you?

Yes, I think you probably would.

All in all your message is somewhat confusing.  Can you please try again using sentences and stuff?

[nicolaennio]

Wow, so dooglus is always one step in front of problems!

Yeah, it's suspicous.

Who ever could have predicted that an online Bitcoin wallet site might run into problems with hackers? 

Yes, probably you, TF, nakowa and Chuck Norris are all part of a secret organization trying to conquer the world using bitcoins :-)

Apparently people worth 4100 bitcoins could not predict it. But so how can people trust blockchain.info or coinbase.com as well?

[obeygiant]

Just-dice.com shows "Loading..." on everything for over a day. Looks dead. Anybody having the same problem?

[Keyser Soze]

Just-dice.com shows "Loading..." on everything for over a day. Looks dead. Anybody having the same problem?

It's working fine. Normally when that happens to me I just refresh the page and it asks me to log in again.

[obeygiant]

Just-dice.com shows "Loading..." on everything for over a day. Looks dead. Anybody having the same problem?

It's working fine. Normally when that happens to me I just refresh the page and it asks me to log in again.

You're right. For some reason it is taking a really long time to load for me. Reloading seems to help.

[dooglus]

Apparently people worth 4100 bitcoins could not predict it. But so how can people trust blockchain.info or coinbase.com as well?

42 of those 4100 were in the Just-Dice account.  Maybe TF had similar deals with other sites he talked into supporting inputs.io deposits.

[conspirosphere.tk]

sorry, before i try to read this 189-pages thread, could anyone summarize why Just-Dice could be safe about the return OF the investment for investors?
I mean, the business idea seems very good, but all we have to trust with our coins is a nickname on this forum? (with good rep, ok). Not that i did not trust other hi-rep nicks on this forum -but with bad outcomes usually.

[dooglus]

Is there a mathematician in the house?

How do I analyse the odds of this strategy working?



He bets at 66%, which pays out 1.5x.  He starts at 0.06 BTC (this first bet is not shown in the screenshot), doubles on loss, halves on win, never halves below 0.06.

So it's a random walk, which makes a net profit of 0.03 BTC each time it gets back to betting 0.06.  Steps down are about twice as likely as steps up, so it seems unlikely to reach max bet and bust very quickly.

But the question is how do I calculate the probability of such a progression busting, given that he can afford to go N steps up the random walk?

Is it a Markov Chain thing?  Or how do I analyse it?

[itod]

But the question is how do I calculate the probability of such a progression busting, given that he can afford to go N steps up the random walk?

He is going to break the bank! BRB, divesting 

What an interesting strategy, never seen anything like it.

[msm595]

Is there a mathematician in the house?

How do I analyse the odds of this strategy working?



He bets at 66%, which pays out 1.5x.  He starts at 0.06 BTC (this first bet is not shown in the screenshot), doubles on loss, halves on win, never halves below 0.06.

So it's a random walk, which makes a net profit of 0.03 BTC each time it gets back to betting 0.06.  Steps down are about twice as likely as steps up, so it seems unlikely to reach max bet and bust very quickly.

But the question is how do I calculate the probability of such a progression busting, given that he can afford to go N steps up the random walk?

Is it a Markov Chain thing?  Or how do I analyse it?

It's just an "improved" Martingale betting system. It's still guaranteed to lose money if betting ad infinitum. I put together a quick script to simulate betting, I'm no statistician though, so I'm not sure what numbers are needed.

Code:

import random
from decimal import *

r = random.SystemRandom()

chanceWin = Decimal(".66")
payout = Decimal("1.5")
maxProfit = Decimal("287.47")

maxBet = maxProfit/(payout-Decimal(1))
minBet = Decimal("0.06")

whaleWallet = Decimal("5")

def betRound(bet, whaleWallet, justDiceDelta=Decimal(0), verbose=False):
    numBets = 0

    while whaleWallet > 0:
        if bet > whaleWallet:
            bet = whaleWallet

        if bet < minBet:
            break

        numBets += 1
        
        if r.random() < chanceWin:
            if verbose: print("Won  bet of %s" % bet)
            justDiceDelta -= bet*(payout-Decimal(1))
            whaleWallet += bet*(payout-Decimal(1))
            bet = max(minBet, bet/Decimal(2))
        else:
            if verbose: print("Lost bet of %s" % bet)
            justDiceDelta += bet
            whaleWallet -= bet
            bet = min(maxBet, bet*Decimal(2))

        if verbose: print("Just Dice: %s, Whale: %s" % (justDiceDelta, whaleWallet))

    return (numBets, justDiceDelta, whaleWallet, justDiceDelta)

rounds = 100
bets = []
justDiceLost = False

print("Running %d simulations of betting with %0.2f BTC..." % (rounds, whaleWallet))

for i in range(0,1000):
    stats = betRound(minBet, whaleWallet)
    print(stats)
    bets.append(stats[0])
    if stats[1] < 0:
        justDiceLost = True
        print("JustDice actually lost money!!!!!!!!!!!")

if not justDiceLost:
    print("JustDice didn't lose a single bitcoin.")
print(bets)

[optimator]

sorry, before i try to read this 189-pages thread, could anyone summarize why Just-Dice could be safe about the return OF the investment for investors?
I mean, the business idea seems very good, but all we have to trust with our coins is a nickname on this forum? (with good rep, ok). Not that i did not trust other hi-rep nicks on this forum -but with bad outcomes usually.

Hi! I can appreciate your request, but it seems a little contradictory. You want someone to tell you why you, as an investor, should trust just-dice so you don't have to do your own homework? (reading 189 page thread).

That, to me, seems to be the problem that gets people into problems. ("trust[ing] other hi-rep nicks on this forum -but with bad outcomes usually.")

I would turn the question back to you and ask what do YOU need so you can trust just-dice as an investor? Identify those items that make you comfortable sending a currency that has no recourse once it's sent and then seek answers to those items. Then, based on those answers, or lack thereof, make your own investment decision.

Cheers!

[marcovaldo]

I lost all my btc in just-dice and now the price is going crazy: sniff

[dooglus]

Hi! I can appreciate your request, but it seems a little contradictory. You want someone to tell you why you, as an investor, should trust just-dice so you don't have to do your own homework? (reading 189 page thread).

I suspect the reason nobody replied is that no investor wants to encourage new investors.

The max profit on the site is already so large that it is almost never used, so new investment just spreads the site's profits thinner.

"Hey Mr. Prospector!  Can you explain to me why it's safe to come join your gold rush?"