ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread

[ffssixtynine]

Or he could just convert the bitcoins from a reliable source and not risk having a bunch of important money caught in Mt. Gox limbo.

Sure but what is 'reliable' in the btc world??

If I had to offload 1000btc I wouldn't throw it all at or into one exchange/account. Exchanges can be hacked, now there is a risk of complete loss whereas you are talking of risk of a delay.

If Ken is using TradeHill why didn't he convert Monday and pay eASIC Tuesday? Because their claimed volume is 5x smaller than mtgox.

So taking 3-4weeks to sell hundreds of small batches or selling it all over 3days on gox then waiting for a wire transfer - which do you think would take the longest? There is a delay either way.

It'd be far too risky to use Gox right now and a very silly thing to do. Why risk your entire company when you don't need to, maybe for a few %? It'd be absolutely crazy.

BTW You can try and get an emergency transfer by paying 5% to Tux but that is also hit and miss. The funding issue isn't a myth either - I've been following it pretty closely. Mt Gox delays can be months or completely unpredictable. You can't perform business that way.

You also have to deal with banks on our side of the equation. It's actually very complex to convert that amount of money any time, let alone working with Bitcoin.

re: Tradehill - this sort of amount would probably be done in a dark pool so the (public) volume is irrelevant.

[Stuartuk]

re: Tradehill - this sort of amount would probably be done in a dark pool so the (public) volume is irrelevant.

So you're saying you can do secret deals with Tradehill but not with Gox? A few percent in these terms is actually big money. 10% more USD for your btc on Gox = 100k. If you are a big withrawler Tux might take 3% = 30k which is not bad for 20mins of form filling/online banking and maybe a few phone calls.

You now have 70kUSD more than on any other exchange. No risk.

[Stuartuk]

It's actually very complex to convert that amount of money any time, let alone working with Bitcoin.

With respect you don't seem to understand the process. Who converts btc to USD? No bank in the world does this. Mt-Gox does the exchange on their own books in a split second when you click 'SELL'. That is not very complex.

[ffssixtynine]

It's actually very complex to convert that amount of money any time, let alone working with Bitcoin.

With respect you don't seem to understand the process. Who converts btc to USD? No bank in the world does this. Mt-Gox does the exchange on their own books in a split second when you click 'SELL'. That is not very complex.

I really do understand the process. It's not the conversion that's the problem, it's the banking. And it is complex because you don't want that money being locked out or to have an unknown transfer time which can be weeks or months. Unfortunately VMC are US based - this is all non trivial.

I already pointed out emergency transfers can (apparently) be requested for 5% on Gox but it offers no guarantees and is definitely not as easy as you say. Then you have to be allowed to keep and use the money in your bank, which is also not as easy as you may think.

On top of that, at the point where the IPO was successful, Gox were in a worse situation. Even if it were more feasible now (and it's only slightly so), then I'd expect that the majority of the funds would have been converted already.

Running a business you need to know when you'll have your money. There are risks whichever way you look at it, but the risk of never getting your money (Gox) or it being delayed possibly months is the worst one. That was the situation with Gox at IPO time and it still more or less is. That's why Gox has such a premium. It doesn't work like you say it does - other evidence being the lack of meaningful arbitrage.

Tradehill is set up in the US specifically to deal with the US regulatory/banking situation and high value traders (/dark pools), but AFAIK Tradehill are very much a work in progress. You can actually go meet Tradehill in the US easily. I was at the Bitcoin London talk where they said they had more lawyers than techies, and I spoke to several people at the conference who are working in this area of Bitcoin.

When you deal with dark pools and large amounts, you also have to negotiate timing and rate.

With respect (genuinely, as I can see you're a big ActM supporter), I don't think you understand the intricacies here.

Finally, we don't even know if the money has been converted, all we know is that he deail hasn't been signed off AND paid for, since that's the point at which I'd hope to see a press release.

(Few minor edits made)

[Stuartuk]

It's actually very complex to convert that amount of money any time, let alone working with Bitcoin.

With respect you don't seem to understand the process. Who converts btc to USD? No bank in the world does this. Mt-Gox does the exchange on their own books in a split second when you click 'SELL'. That is not very complex.

I really do understand the process. It's not the conversion that's the problem, it's the banking. And it is complex because you don't want that money being locked out or to have an unknown transfer time which can be weeks or months. Unfortunately VMC are US based - this is all non trivial.

I already pointed out emergency transfers can (apparently) be requested for 5% on Gox but it offers no guarantees.

Tradehill is set up in the US specifically to deal with the banking situation there and that's the problem area, but AFAIK Tradehill are very much a work in progress. I was at the Bitcoin London talk where they said they had more lawyers than techies, and I spoke to several people there who are working in this area.

With respect (genuinely, as I can see you're a big ActM supporter), I don't think you understand the intricacies here.

What intricacies? You are blurring the issues. We are talking about international bank transfers not the legal issues faced by Gox. From what I understand the sheer volume of transfers caused complaint from the banks as the system they use needs manual input, they are not set up to handle the volume of transfers Gox were requesting. Nothing to do with lawyers. You said converting was the issue and it isn't, it's done in-house.
The issue is also not the apparent 'clampdown' on Gox and btc (unless sovereign banks/govs are putting pressure on to slow the infrastructure (bank transfers) of BTC.) No evidence of that? Simply a logistical problem.

[ffssixtynine]

What intricacies? You are blurring the issues. We are talking about international bank transfers not the legal issues faced by Gox. From what I understand the sheer volume of transfers caused complaint from the banks as the system they use needs manual input, they are not set up to handle the volume of transfers Gox were requesting. Nothing to do with lawyers. You said converting was the issue and it isn't, it's done in-house.
The issue is also not the apparent 'clampdown' on Gox and btc (unless sovereign banks/govs are putting pressure on to slow the infrastructure (bank transfers) of BTC.) No evidence of that. Simply a logistical problem.

Last answer because this is gonna fill the thread - PM me if you want to discuss it more

I'm not talking about the legal issues, beyond the risk that Gox disappears due to existing problems (small but real right now - and I would never risk a business on that), I'm talking about the bank transfers.

I'm not talking about a problem converting on an exchange, I'm talking about getting the USD back in a predictable and usable fashion. A conversion is useless otherwise.

I accept that you disagree but, respectfully, I know more about this area of Bitcoin than you do (and others will know more than I, and perhaps Ken for all I know). And this is all moot because I'd expect most of the funds to have been converted by now.

[Stuartuk]

I accept that you disagree but, respectfully, I know more about this area of Bitcoin than you do

lol OK well I haven't seen any evidence of that but lets leave it there then. I can see when I've defeated someone. Next!

Any other muppets out there wanna ruck?

[ffssixtynine]

Ah, there is some public info if you wish to believe it:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.msg2964575#msg2964575

[Stuartuk]

Sure I believe it but the latest page on that thread has this news:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270716.0

so now Bitstamp are having the same issues due to increased business. It's clearly not a Gox OR a bitstamp issue it's the Banks we hate.

For the time being we want FIAT. When we have a more developed btc economy we wont have these problems. Someone email Porche and ask them if they are accepting bitcoins.

[Stuartuk]

To be fair it's a nice analysis to suggest price is rising because people are re-buying btc to take that out as they can't get their money out but all money delayed in the transfer process is unavailable for trading so that doesn't seem completely reasonable. The btc 3month chart says it all to me, steadily increasing demand after a pullback to previous low circa $60. There is nothing anomalous to that analysis in the chart and this latest daily spike is not without precedent.

[N_S]

Thoughts on Labcoin's news?

[matuszed]

Thoughts on Labcoin's news?

Just going to increase selling pressure on ACTM until we get some news.  Since its listed on BTCT I bet the prices between BTCT and BF comin in line towards the BF price.

[N_S]

Thoughts on Labcoin's news?

Just going to increase selling pressure on ACTM until we get some news.  Since its listed on BTCT I bet the prices between BTCT and BF comin in line towards the BF price.

I've been wondering: how important is it to be the first to market with 28nm tech? Obviously there's room for a handful of companies to remain competitive, but I'm interested in how much an early start would mean in the long run.

[kleeck]

Thoughts on Labcoin's news?

Just going to increase selling pressure on ACTM until we get some news.  Since its listed on BTCT I bet the prices between BTCT and BF comin in line towards the BF price.

I've been wondering: how important is it to be the first to market with 28nm tech? Obviously there's room for a handful of companies to remain competitive, but I'm interested in how much an early start would mean in the long run.

From the Labcoin IPO, emphasis mine:

"In early 2013 development of a 180 nm ASIC chip was started and in late spring this chip design became the foundation for the current development of and production of a highly competative and cost effective 130 nm ASIC chip. This is the chip that the company now has secured production of for it's first ASIC Bitcoin miner product."

Also:

"The planned IPO, if filled will vitalize Labcoin with between $600.000-$650.000 (at a bitcoin/USD value of between $80-$90) enabling first run and mass production of 130nm chips and miners as well as continued development of 65 nm ASIC technology and miners."

Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.0

[N_S]

I worded my second question terribly.

I'm aware that Labcoin's tech is quite a bit older, but what I was referring to was HashFast/Cointerra's equipment.

I had switched topics in my head and didn't let anyone else know 

[hobbymd]

Thoughts on Labcoin's news?

Just going to increase selling pressure on ACTM until we get some news.  Since its listed on BTCT I bet the prices between BTCT and BF comin in line towards the BF price.

some ppl are losing their patience, a lot of shares (~30k) being dumped at BF. I guess we sinking for now until, maybe, if, when we get any new progress regarding this damn eAsic deal   . Man i can't wait until we hear something definite about this deal hopefully this week, if I'm not wrong this is the 4th week since ActM raised enough capital for this deal.

[Stuartuk]

Thoughts on Labcoin's news?

Just going to increase selling pressure on ACTM until we get some news.  Since its listed on BTCT I bet the prices between BTCT and BF comin in line towards the BF price.

some ppl are losing their patience, a lot of shares (~30k) being dumped at BF. I guess we sinking for now until, maybe, if, when we get any new progress regarding this damn eAsic deal   . Man i can't wait until we hear something definite about this deal hopefully this week, if I'm not wrong this is the 4th week since ActM raised enough capital for this deal.

I wouldn't say loosing patience, they are sensing an opportunity (as they see it) to sell some ACtM to get into Labcoin. That's Speculation. Personally I think there couldn't be a worse time to sell ACtM. I'm not saying that for any short-term game plan as I'm a long term holder. The risk of getting into LC at .0025 to see it plunge down is not worth the risk for me. Others may think differently.

[ffssixtynine]

Actually, to catch up on my conversation with Stu, things just changed.

Coinbase are using Mt Gox prices which implies maybe a deal of some kind has been done.

Unfortunately I suspect this is too late for Ken but it's really good news generally. Also, Bitcoin has been ruled legal in Germany (thus far) but professional Bitcoin sellers must charge sales tax (19% I think). Generally speaking, good news tho.

Now, if Coinbase can just sort out a UK bank as well...

EDIT: And they just switched back. I wonder what that was about.

[Stuartuk]

Actually, to catch up on my conversation with Stu, things just changed.

Coinbase are using Mt Gox prices which implies maybe a deal of some kind has been done.

Unfortunately I suspect this is too late for Ken but it's really good news generally. Also, Bitcoin has been ruled legal in Germany (thus far) but professional Bitcoin sellers must charge sales tax (19% I think). Generally speaking, good news tho.

Now, if Coinbase can just sort out a UK bank as well...

EDIT: And they just switched back. I wonder what that was about.

Maybe a test, they must be planning to quote gox full time. The German (confirmation) statement is really excellent, Fidor bank is partnering with bitcoin.de to operate an exchange. Germany leads and the rest of Europe will follow, with the backing of sections of the banking industry btc just gains more legitimacy and stability. OK we want to end the stanglehold central banks have on us via currency manipulation but once btc gets to a certain market cap it will be unstoppable and we won't need the backing of banks. To the friggin moon.

[knybe]

Actually, to catch up on my conversation with Stu, things just changed.

Coinbase are using Mt Gox prices which implies maybe a deal of some kind has been done.

Unfortunately I suspect this is too late for Ken but it's really good news generally. Also, Bitcoin has been ruled legal in Germany (thus far) but professional Bitcoin sellers must charge sales tax (19% I think). Generally speaking, good news tho.

Now, if Coinbase can just sort out a UK bank as well...

EDIT: And they just switched back. I wonder what that was about.

yeah that was weird, I thought my eyes were messing with me.

EDIT: maybe Ken talked them into pushing the mtgox button for awhile...