ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread

[Streets 2.0]

Added some linkage in the update section of the OP

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[sayaz]

Once we have data for a few months of sales we could forecast with a moving average. Pretty easy

[ArcticWolf]

Lets get back to some old fashioned speculating!

3-4 days until the SatoshiDice passthroughs get their payouts. What does everyone think this will do to the ACTM price?

[Exocyst]

Lets get back to some old fashioned speculating!

3-4 days until the SatoshiDice passthroughs get their payouts. What does everyone think this will do to the ACTM price?

I've been thinking about this as well. I think people who were long SatoshiDice might take up some long positions in ActM, but people who were trading it might just pump-and-dump ActM as the dividends at present aren't likely to convert them to a long position. You might be able to model this by looking at share movement on BitFunder (with regards to the Assets List) over a period of 1–2 months (if you have access to those backups) and see what percentage was holding vs trading. Then, project this percentage over the total pass through share number over all exchanges and figure what volume of long BTC investment is about to be freed up. Of course, ActM is only likely to snag a percentage of those long positions, but it is one of the more attractive long security positions at the moment. Overall, I expect an upward movement in price, but there will be a correction associated with the upward movement.

[somestranger]

You might be able to model this by looking at share movement on BitFunder (with regards to the Assets List) over a period of 1–2 months (if you have access to those backups) and see what percentage was holding vs trading.

Backup of assets list: https://btct.co/history-bitfunder/

I think the share price will go up some when the fund closes, but not a ton. BTC-TC already got their dividend/buyout and I think that is part of why the price skyrocketed so much over there, and that also dragged the Bitfunder price up.

[Exocyst]

You might be able to model this by looking at share movement on BitFunder (with regards to the Assets List) over a period of 1–2 months (if you have access to those backups) and see what percentage was holding vs trading.

Backup of assets list: https://btct.co/history-bitfunder/

I think the share price will go up some when the fund closes, but not a ton. BTC-TC already got their dividend/buyout and I think that is part of why the price skyrocketed so much over there, and that also dragged the Bitfunder price up.

The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, though—they don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.

[shandafa]

The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, though—they don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.

How do you arbitrage btw exchanges?
You buy stock at exchange A and then sell is at exchange B?
But how to transfer the stock from A to B?

[matuszed]

The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, though—they don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.

How do you arbitrage btw exchanges?
You buy stock at exchange A and then sell is at exchange B?
But how to transfer the stock from A to B?

Its not a real arbitrage since the shares  cant be moved between exchanges.  But in theory if you have shares where they are trading expensive relative to the other you can sell, move btc, and buy on the new exchange.  You pick up risk moving the btc between exchanges as the price could come back in line 

[Matt_S]

The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, though—they don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.

How do you arbitrage btw exchanges?
You buy stock at exchange A and then sell is at exchange B?
But how to transfer the stock from A to B?

I assume he is buying low on BTCT and selling high, then transferring bitcoin to Bitfunder when its lower and buying there

[shandafa]

Ah, thanks for the explanation!

[Exocyst]

The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, though—they don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.

How do you arbitrage btw exchanges?
You buy stock at exchange A and then sell is at exchange B?
But how to transfer the stock from A to B?

I assume he is buying low on BTCT and selling high, then transferring bitcoin to Bitfunder when its lower and buying there

Your right it's not a true arbitrage, I am just selling high, buying low, and equalizing my share holdings on the two exchanges when the buy/sell orders are close to each other—this last part is more difficult as the share price on BTC-TC rarely dips below the BitFunder price.

[kleeck]

So, Ken is meeting with or already met with eAsic today, has announced that BTCT AMC-PT shares are being tendered to ActiveMining shares "ASAP", and Streets 2.0 announced that an Avalon Board is being put together today! Where do we go from here, share-value wise? Speculate with me!

Active Mining Overview

 
...
 

Important Links and updates:

A Board is being formed, more news to come on this during the week!

Active Mining Corp Private Placement Memorandum:  http://axs.net/AMC/PPM/AM.pdf  and   http://axs.net/AMC/PPM/AM1.pdf

July 24th: Ken departs for California to meet with eASIC.

Avalon prototypes are about a week behind: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252531.msg2774323#msg2774323

...

NOTICE:  ALL AMC-PT SHARES WILL BE TENDERED FOR ActiveMining Shares ASAP

[navitatl]

Different kind of board. This stock is going up at least 5x in the next few months though.

[kleeck]

Different kind of board. This stock is going up at least 5x in the next few months though.

Are you sure? I suppose it could be the ActiveMining company board of directors, but this post makes me think otherwise, given the context:

Yes, when are the Avalons coming and what about yesterday's dividends?

Avalon chips should be here very soon, advise you to read the Overview thread first post.

The context was confusing, but upon further review I agree with you that this is the Board of Directors being formed. Still cool stuff, but not more dividends.

[iCEBREAKER]

The meeting is over, Ken is very disappointed.   

eASIC is a scam.  Their "office" was just a unit in a storage rental building.   

There is no deal, there will be no deal.

/speculation

[kleeck]

The meeting is over, Ken is very disappointed.   

eASIC is a scam.  Their "office" was just a unit in a storage rental building.   

There is no deal, there will be no deal.

/speculation

trolololol.

I've actually poured over the legal documentation that Ken has provided, investigating every name and trying to find any holes in the partnership. eAsic is absolutely a real, and highly competitive ASIC manufacturer, that was clear very early on, so the only option of this partnership being fake was that the documents were all false, signed NDA included. In the end it took way more illogical thinking and mental leaps to justify holding onto the whole, "There is no partnership" argument.

All that to say, I respectfully disagree with your speculation.

[Streets 2.0]

Different kind of board. This stock is going up at least 5x in the next few months though.

Are you sure? I suppose it could be the ActiveMining company board of directors, but this post makes me think otherwise, given the context:

Yes, when are the Avalons coming and what about yesterday's dividends?

Avalon chips should be here very soon, advise you to read the Overview thread first post.

The context was confusing, but upon further review I agree with you that this is the Board of Directors being formed. Still cool stuff, but not more dividends.

A Board of Directors, was what I referred to, and was something Ken himself posted.

[kleeck]

Different kind of board. This stock is going up at least 5x in the next few months though.

Are you sure? I suppose it could be the ActiveMining company board of directors, but this post makes me think otherwise, given the context:

Yes, when are the Avalons coming and what about yesterday's dividends?

Avalon chips should be here very soon, advise you to read the Overview thread first post.

The context was confusing, but upon further review I agree with you that this is the Board of Directors being formed. Still cool stuff, but not more dividends.

A Board of Directors, was what I referred to, and was something Ken himself posted.

<3.

[grimholt]

Any news on the meeting yet?

[Subcide]

Yes, we just decided not to tell you.