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Author Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining)  (Read 1041602 times)
Keninishna
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August 27, 2013, 01:55:34 AM
 #3501

Good thing I bought 30k shares at .0015 actually I was reading somewhere in this thread the stock is expected to go up to around somewhere .01 a share maybe more if things come through.
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VolanicEruptor
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August 27, 2013, 01:58:12 AM
 #3502

And if the first run doesn't work as expected (ala BFL power issues...) what then?

All I'm saying is that people seem to be going all in, when there may just be a smaller upside and a bigger downside then being foretold here.

The expected news has nothing to do with that.  If there are problems down the road with power issues, that has nothing to do with this week.

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August 27, 2013, 02:01:13 AM
 #3503

Honestly not trying to spread FUD, but do you really think upcoming news is going to spike the stock?  They are going to receive MAYBE 6TH in chips, which an unknown amount has already been sold via private sales. This will translate into x (single digit) TH and mining divs measured in the satoshi's.  IMO the stock is as high as it's going to get until maybe a week before the 50TH comes online.  And even then the Network TH might be so high as to make the 50TH a joke.  Most likely we will just steadily decline for the next month.

I want Labcoin to succeed, I just don't see it spiking up from here.
I see a stair-step walk up at each news stage... "we have the chips in hand" will bump it 10%, "we've tested a few chips on the boards" another 10%, "we're hashing fully assembled rigs" another 10%, but the real baseline price won't be known until dividends have been paid at least once, with a bump in price after every dividend as people reinvest them and a slow rise in between. I especially see appreciable jumps when the bulk hardware starts to be sold. Honestly, I see a striking resemblance to the AM pattern all over again, but the absolute ceiling on this (according to my math, YMMV) will only be about 30x from IPO price if everything goes perfectly and the market overall stays strong... but that's many months out yet. I already have about 4 soft exit points set myself, but I need the baseline price to be established after dividends are paid before I commit to them with standing orders.

But my concern isn't any potential near-term spike, it's how the long term price will track after the initial market expectations are set. For this play, I'm going to track dividend yield - once it levels off, it's time to sell 75% for me. If I'm lucky, and if the market is strong, and if I time it right, that'll be a 40-bagger (after dividend reinvestment) and I'll just let the rest sit and bring in dividends until the stone bleeds no more.
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August 27, 2013, 02:07:21 AM
 #3504

I'm interested in starting up a bet that Labcoin will rise above .004 after expected news.  Any takers?

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August 27, 2013, 02:10:06 AM
 #3505

It could also hit a dead zone for a while like ActM has after peaking at around .009.
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August 27, 2013, 02:10:52 AM
 #3506

I'm interested in starting up a bet that Labcoin will rise above .004 after expected news.  Any takers?

I'd agree that it will breach .004, but I think those purchasing at that level will be left holding the bag.  I'd say we'll be back to .0033 a week later.
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August 27, 2013, 02:14:03 AM
 #3507

I'm interested in starting up a bet that Labcoin will rise above .004 after expected news.  Any takers?

Yeah there are takers - its called the stock market.

There are 439.952 BTC worth of takers in fact, so if you are so confident that you are willing to take bets why dont you actually do it?
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August 27, 2013, 02:21:24 AM
 #3508

I'm interested in starting up a bet that Labcoin will rise above .004 after expected news.  Any takers?

Yeah there are takers - its called the stock market.

There are 439.952 BTC worth of takers in fact, so if you are so confident that you are willing to take bets why dont you actually do it?

Because I want the jump between .0036 and .004 to make a more significant profit.  If I buy all the way up to .004, my potential profit would be reduced, as I would even be buying shares at .0039999.

You have much to learn, asshopper.

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August 27, 2013, 02:25:21 AM
 #3509

I'm interested in starting up a bet that Labcoin will rise above .004 after expected news.  Any takers?

Yeah there are takers - its called the stock market.

There are 439.952 BTC worth of takers in fact, so if you are so confident that you are willing to take bets why dont you actually do it?

Because I want the jump between .0036 and .004 to make a more significant profit.  If I buy all the way up to .004, my potential profit would be reduced, as I would even be buying shares at .0039999.

You have much to learn, asshopper.

Yep looks like bet dodged.
physalis
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August 27, 2013, 02:25:53 AM
 #3510

$180?  I wipe my ass with $180...  Cheesy  That's practically nothing.
If he made that everyday it would be equivalent to a $50-$60,000 salary before taxes.

But he won't, because news is coming soon and there won't be a chance to sell for a $180 gain between .0035 and .0036.  Short term gains like this only make sense without an expected jump.  I bet you were that newb.  Thank you kind sir.

Honestly not trying to spread FUD, but do you really think upcoming news is going to spike the stock?  They are going to receive MAYBE 6TH in chips, which an unknown amount has already been sold via private sales. This will translate into x (single digit) TH and mining divs measured in the satoshi's.  IMO the stock is as high as it's going to get until maybe a week before the 50TH comes online.  And even then the Network TH might be so high as to make the 50TH a joke.  Most likely we will just steadily decline for the next month.

I want Labcoin to succeed, I just don't see it spiking up from here.
If we get 6 TH online, we have about ~10% of what ASICMINER has. Now go calculate what a Labcoin share is worth if it's worth 10% of ASICMINER.
That would be over 0.01, triple what it is now.
Trust me, if they start hashing, there is a lot of room to go up.
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August 27, 2013, 02:26:09 AM
 #3511

No.. I will still make a real bet, but I won't buy all the way up to .004, because that would reduce my profit potential  That's what I'm saying

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August 27, 2013, 02:27:16 AM
 #3512

$180?  I wipe my ass with $180...  Cheesy  That's practically nothing.
If he made that everyday it would be equivalent to a $50-$60,000 salary before taxes.

But he won't, because news is coming soon and there won't be a chance to sell for a $180 gain between .0035 and .0036.  Short term gains like this only make sense without an expected jump.  I bet you were that newb.  Thank you kind sir.

Honestly not trying to spread FUD, but do you really think upcoming news is going to spike the stock?  They are going to receive MAYBE 6TH in chips, which an unknown amount has already been sold via private sales. This will translate into x (single digit) TH and mining divs measured in the satoshi's.  IMO the stock is as high as it's going to get until maybe a week before the 50TH comes online.  And even then the Network TH might be so high as to make the 50TH a joke.  Most likely we will just steadily decline for the next month.

I want Labcoin to succeed, I just don't see it spiking up from here.
If we get 6 TH online, we have about ~10% of what ASICMINER has. Now go calculate what a Labcoin share is worth if it's worth 10% of ASICMINER.
That would be over 0.01, triple what it is now.
Trust me, if they start hashing, there is a lot of room to go up.

To be fair, AM has a lot less shares.  LOL.
edit: nevermind, you saw that

physalis
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August 27, 2013, 02:35:17 AM
 #3513

To be fair, AM has a lot less shares.  LOL.
edit: nevermind, you saw that
Yeah that's calculated in.
LC has 25x more shares, so if AM is valued at 3 BTC/share, that would put an equally big LC @ 0.12 BTC/share.
If we reach just 10% of that: 0.012 BTC/share

I think comparisons like this are the best estimates you can make with this stock, because both AM and LC use the exact same business model.
And I believe we will go over the value of 10% of AM, because hell, why not? If everything plays out as planned, we got way better chips.
And honestly, as much as I liked the whole AM experience, I believe it was unprofessional from the ground up. AM has a big advantage by being the first in the business, but thinking it's impossible that we can reach 10% or more of what they got is probably underestimating LC's abilities.
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August 27, 2013, 02:39:46 AM
 #3514

5TH/S would be about 38BTC/day

(38 BTC / 10,000,000) * 7 = .0000266 BTC/share every week

.0000266 x 52 every year is .0014BTC

Now assuming a 25% APR as AM has shown us ( NOT assuming we will actually see this over a year, it's simply used to calculate present value) , that puts the share value at .0056

Expect .0056 to be the "BASE" share price before further development anticipation and speculation becomes a factor.  Anywhere between .0056 and .01 is likely in the short term.

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August 27, 2013, 02:41:13 AM
 #3515

To be fair, AM has a lot less shares.  LOL.
edit: nevermind, you saw that
Yeah that's calculated in.
LC has 25x more shares, so if AM is valued at 3 BTC/share, that would put an equally big LC @ 0.12 BTC/share.
If we reach just 10% of that: 0.012 BTC/share

I think comparisons like this are the best estimates you can make with this stock, because both AM and LC use the exact same business model.
And I believe we will go over the value of 10% of AM, because hell, why not? If everything plays out as planned, we got way better chips.
And honestly, as much as I liked the whole AM experience, I believe it was unprofessional from the ground up. AM has a big advantage by being the first in the business, but thinking it's impossible that we can reach 10% or more of what they got is probably underestimating LC's abilities.

It may not be a fair comparison.  AM currently sells a great deal of hardware on top of mining.

Freedom is a state of mind, and then Bitcoin comes along.....
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VolanicEruptor
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August 27, 2013, 02:42:36 AM
 #3516

Hardware or mining , it doesn't matter.. in the end its all about annual profit %.  Doesn't matter how you get that profit..

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August 27, 2013, 02:45:26 AM
 #3517

5TH/S would be about 38BTC/day

(38 BTC / 10,000,000) * 7 = .0000266 BTC/share every week

.0000266 x 52 every year is .0014BTC

Now assuming a 25% APR as AM has shown us ( NOT assuming we will actually see this over a year, it's simply used to calculate present value) , that puts the share value at .0056

Expect .0056 to be the "BASE" share price before further development anticipation and speculation becomes a factor.  Anywhere between .0056 and .01 is likely in the short term.

25% apr was only achievable because there weren't any other options. It's more realistic to plan on 50% (.0027).
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August 27, 2013, 02:47:19 AM
 #3518

I am liking these numbers!  Cool
VolanicEruptor
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August 27, 2013, 02:50:34 AM
 #3519

5TH/S would be about 38BTC/day

(38 BTC / 10,000,000) * 7 = .0000266 BTC/share every week

.0000266 x 52 every year is .0014BTC

Now assuming a 25% APR as AM has shown us ( NOT assuming we will actually see this over a year, it's simply used to calculate present value) , that puts the share value at .0056

Expect .0056 to be the "BASE" share price before further development anticipation and speculation becomes a factor.  Anywhere between .0056 and .01 is likely in the short term.

25% apr was only achievable because there weren't any other options. It's more realistic to plan on 50% (.0027).

Time = trust.  What, you say?  Let me explain..
The longer an exchange is around, the longer a service is around, and the longer a currency is around, the more trust INCREASES.
25% APR was based on a risky industry until now.  Hell, it used to be at 50%.  We are likely to see people pushing the share prices to a LESSER APR % because their perception of eliminated risk is getting GREATER with time.

Say I was a loan shark.  Should I charge more interest to you if I have been around for only 1 year, compared to someone who has been around for 10?  Obviously as trust has been snowballing for 10 years, you would expect to pay more of a premium to the more proven service.

This is why on a real stock exchange with fiat currency, a 10% APR dividend would be considered amazing.

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August 27, 2013, 02:52:21 AM
 #3520

As time goes on, APR % goes DOWN.  History on BTCT has shown that very clearly.. 
People are more likely to trust their investments as BTCT and Bitcoin grows.

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