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Author Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining)  (Read 1058520 times)
MonkeyMarcel
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August 29, 2013, 01:30:38 PM
 #4441

but valueing them 4x+ as high as LC, even though LC will start running very soon now, is nothing but ridiculous. I say once people realize this huge imbalance, ActM will drop and LC will go up.

It is 4x the value because 28nm chips have a higher ROI potential, than Labcoin's 130nm. Given that both companies succeed in their goal and ship their products on time.
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin-Qt, which will follow the rules of the network no matter what miners do. Even if every miner decided to create 1000 bitcoins per block, full nodes would stick to the rules and reject those blocks.
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August 29, 2013, 01:33:07 PM
 #4442

but valueing them 4x+ as high as LC, even though LC will start running very soon now, is nothing but ridiculous. I say once people realize this huge imbalance, ActM will drop and LC will go up.

It is 4x the value because 28nm chips have a higher ROI potential, than Labcoin's 130nm. Given that both companies succeed in their goal and ship their products on time.

28nm already online?
MonkeyMarcel
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August 29, 2013, 01:35:06 PM
 #4443

but valueing them 4x+ as high as LC, even though LC will start running very soon now, is nothing but ridiculous. I say once people realize this huge imbalance, ActM will drop and LC will go up.

It is 4x the value because 28nm chips have a higher ROI potential, than Labcoin's 130nm. Given that both companies succeed in their goal and ship their products on time.

28nm already online?

Nah, I was being hypothetical: "Given that both companies succeed in their goal and ship their products on time."
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August 29, 2013, 01:36:13 PM
 #4444

hahaha okay Smiley But 130 is just a start 65 will follow Smiley
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August 29, 2013, 01:36:52 PM
 #4445

Uh...Oh...

Found my posts helpful? Consider buying me a beer :-)!:
BTC - 1San1tyUGhfWRNPYBF4b6Vaurq5SjFYWk NXT - 17063113680221230777
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August 29, 2013, 01:45:30 PM
 #4446

Uh...Oh...

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August 29, 2013, 01:49:13 PM
 #4447

but valueing them 4x+ as high as LC, even though LC will start running very soon now, is nothing but ridiculous. I say once people realize this huge imbalance, ActM will drop and LC will go up.

It is 4x the value because 28nm chips have a higher ROI potential, than Labcoin's 130nm. Given that both companies succeed in their goal and ship their products on time.

1. The current counter-party risk of ActiveMining is at least as high as Labcoin, and in my opinion higher; the "given that" is a little bit big.
2. If you deliver 2 months late, very probably that will reduce lifetime mining revenue by a factor of 4.
3. Labcoin isn't going to sit on the 130nm chips forever, and they are already working on 65nm. Granted it's not as good as 28nm, they won't be too far behind.

The 28nm chips need to have at least 16x earning potential to justify the current price. Just imagine, if Labcoin keeps 1% from October, then ActiveMining has to keep 4% from December. If Labcoin keeps 5% then ActiveMining has to be as big as ASICMINER.

On the other hand, ASICMINER has had staggered expansion rate beyond 40TH/s (though with 130nm hardware) despite continuous blade production, which at least means keeping 4x the mining rate is not just 4x more difficult. This can partly be explained by the diminishing returns of mining expansion; say the network has 1000TH/s, and you have 10% i.e. 100TH/s. Put in 100TH/s then you'll get around 18.182%. Put in another 100TH/s you only get 25%. You spent 3x as much money but only get 2.5x more return.
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August 29, 2013, 01:58:11 PM
 #4448

but valueing them 4x+ as high as LC, even though LC will start running very soon now, is nothing but ridiculous. I say once people realize this huge imbalance, ActM will drop and LC will go up.

It is 4x the value because 28nm chips have a higher ROI potential, than Labcoin's 130nm. Given that both companies succeed in their goal and ship their products on time.

1. The current counter-party risk of ActiveMining is at least as high as Labcoin, and in my opinion higher; the "given that" is a little bit big.
2. If you deliver 2 months late, very probably that will reduce lifetime mining revenue by a factor of 4.
3. Labcoin isn't going to sit on the 130nm chips forever, and they are already working on 65nm. Granted it's not as good as 28nm, they won't be too far behind.

The 28nm chips need to have at least 16x earning potential to justify the current price. Just imagine, if Labcoin keeps 1% from October, then ActiveMining has to keep 4% from December. If Labcoin keeps 5% then ActiveMining has to be as big as ASICMINER.

On the other hand, ASICMINER has had staggered expansion rate beyond 40TH/s (though with 130nm hardware) despite continuous blade production, which at least means keeping 4x the mining rate is not just 4x more difficult. This can partly be explained by the diminishing returns of mining expansion; say the network has 1000TH/s, and you have 10% i.e. 100TH/s. Put in 100TH/s then you'll get around 18.182%. Put in another 100TH/s you only get 25%. You spent 3x as much money but only get 2.5x more return.

People see "28nm" and lose their minds.  People don't realize that ActiveMining's chips are done using an FPGA-ASIC conversion process, and are going to be a lot slower per mm2 then the chips from KnC/HashFast/Cointerra.  They get the energy and transistor switch advantages, but spread over a lot more area, but there chips aren't going to be that much better in terms of pure silicon cost then Labcoin's.

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August 29, 2013, 02:01:28 PM
 #4449

On the other hand, ASICMINER has had staggered expansion rate beyond 40TH/s (though with 130nm hardware) despite continuous blade production, [...]
I believe that is easily explained by AM making much more and way easier money by selling the blades than by mining with them. They can sell them at a price that never sees ROI (for whatever strange reasons buyers have).
They can only do this because they have no competition, literally none. This behaviour will not survive this year, I'm 100% sure. Future miner sales will be at competitive prices when the different mining companies (including AM and LC) will have to battle for their customers. It will be interesting to watch how far down they can and will go with their prices before it's again more profitable for them to mine themselves.
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August 29, 2013, 02:15:27 PM
 #4450

It's interesting that the smallest bit of news will shot the stock up, yet other (IMO) better stocks can actually have solid news and nothing changes..lol  Huh
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August 29, 2013, 02:26:12 PM
 #4451

The news from "labcoin" appeared when the price was already at .0027xx again.

TheSwede sold his shares before posting the news?  Tongue #joking
radiumsoup
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August 29, 2013, 02:52:53 PM
 #4452

Everyone, just stop with the die size comparisons. They're completely useless for differentiating profitability. They'd be useful for expressing differences in package size or interface speeds, but they do not belong in the conversation for profitability.

Let me put it to you as an illustration:

There are two shipping companies that go into business at the same time, OldShip and NewShip. OldShip buys older planes and used diesel trucks, warehouses relatively far out from airports in a cheap industrial zone, and tries to be as lean and nimble as they can to compete, even if that means using older but reliable equipment to save on costs. NewShip uses brand new planes and electric trucks, puts their solar-powered warehouses right on the high-rent flightline for super-fast loading and unloading of their cargo planes, and emphasizes the use of new technology whenever possible.

Assuming both can get the undamaged package delivered in the same amount of time, which company do you choose to ship a critical 10-pound package overnight from Miami to Seattle?

If you said "well, that depends - what does it cost?", you're exactly right. People don't buy shipping services for the company's brand new planes or their electric trucks or their solar-powered warehouses, they buy shipping services to get a package of a certain size across the country undamaged in the time allotted. Similarly, serious bitcoin miners don't buy die size or flashy packaging (unless you want a shiny AsicMiner USB stick for the lulz), they buy hashrate per [insert currency here] from whatever costs the least amount today. So, to put this on investment terms, who makes more money, OldShip or NewShip? Well, that depends on their effective costs. If OldShip can provide the same service as NewShip for less per package and can therefore charge less, they're going to get the bulk of the business and probably the bulk of the profits. (It's more complicated than this, but this is just an illustration.)

As I'm sure you can guess, I'm suggesting Labcoin is like OldShip, using tried but true technology that's available virtually off-the-shelf. They're focusing on the end result being the fastest hash rate for the least amount of capital. Companies such as ActiveMiner are like NewShip, striving for bleeding-edge technology, but they have to wait in line for the factory to fulfill their infrastructure orders before they can start shipping, and they lose out on the few months they could have been in business while waiting. That 10 pound box is like 10 gigahashes/second - as a buyer, it doesn't matter how you get it, what kind of label is on it, or if you sign a paper or electronic clipboard on delivery... you just want the most hash rate for the least amount of money ASAP.

So, please - enough with the emphasis on die size. As long as Labcoin's design can provide the same hashrate for less money, even if it means using more physical chips to do it, they can use vacuum tubes* for all I care.

*Very, very small vacuum tubes. Or maybe orphans with a bunch of abacuses, that would probably be less heat to dissipate.
Bitcycle
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August 29, 2013, 03:13:20 PM
 #4453



You're wasting time trying to explain anything to the average 'investor' here.  They simply aren't smart enough to get it, though they imagine themselves to be towering geniuses.

It's better if they don't get it, anyway.  Cheaper shares for those of us  who do.



merv77
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August 29, 2013, 03:19:01 PM
 #4454

Everyone, just stop with the die size comparisons. They're completely useless for differentiating profitability. They'd be useful for expressing differences in package size or interface speeds, but they do not belong in the conversation for profitability.

Let me put it to you as an illustration:

There are two shipping companies that go into business at the same time, OldShip and NewShip. OldShip buys older planes and used diesel trucks, warehouses relatively far out from airports in a cheap industrial zone, and tries to be as lean and nimble as they can to compete, even if that means using older but reliable equipment to save on costs. NewShip uses brand new planes and electric trucks, puts their solar-powered warehouses right on the high-rent flightline for super-fast loading and unloading of their cargo planes, and emphasizes the use of new technology whenever possible.

Assuming both can get the undamaged package delivered in the same amount of time, which company do you choose to ship a critical 10-pound package overnight from Miami to Seattle?

If you said "well, that depends - what does it cost?", you're exactly right. People don't buy shipping services for the company's brand new planes or their electric trucks or their solar-powered warehouses, they buy shipping services to get a package of a certain size across the country undamaged in the time allotted. Similarly, serious bitcoin miners don't buy die size or flashy packaging (unless you want a shiny AsicMiner USB stick for the lulz), they buy hashrate per [insert currency here] from whatever costs the least amount today. So, to put this on investment terms, who makes more money, OldShip or NewShip? Well, that depends on their effective costs. If OldShip can provide the same service as NewShip for less per package and can therefore charge less, they're going to get the bulk of the business and probably the bulk of the profits. (It's more complicated than this, but this is just an illustration.)

As I'm sure you can guess, I'm suggesting Labcoin is like OldShip, using tried but true technology that's available virtually off-the-shelf. They're focusing on the end result being the fastest hash rate for the least amount of capital. Companies such as ActiveMiner are like NewShip, striving for bleeding-edge technology, but they have to wait in line for the factory to fulfill their infrastructure orders before they can start shipping, and they lose out on the few months they could have been in business while waiting. That 10 pound box is like 10 gigahashes/second - as a buyer, it doesn't matter how you get it, what kind of label is on it, or if you sign a paper or electronic clipboard on delivery... you just want the most hash rate for the least amount of money ASAP.

So, please - enough with the emphasis on die size. As long as Labcoin's design can provide the same hashrate for less money, even if it means using more physical chips to do it, they can use vacuum tubes* for all I care.

*Very, very small vacuum tubes. Or maybe orphans with a bunch of abacuses, that would probably be less heat to dissipate.

+1
that's right, we're not making smart phones or tablets and I think we're long way off before we're going to see pocket miners.

Labcoin have decided wisely to get hashing in shortest time possible.
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August 29, 2013, 03:38:51 PM
 #4455

Assuming the 3-4TH mentioned is online before Sept 10., can we get a MH/share and a dividend calculation of that hashrate?

Good things come to those who wait.
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August 29, 2013, 03:41:27 PM
 #4456

Assuming the 3-4TH mentioned is online before Sept 10., can we get a MH/share and a dividend calculation of that hashrate?
Are you afraid of calculators?
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August 29, 2013, 03:47:46 PM
 #4457

Everyone, just stop with the die size comparisons. They're completely useless for differentiating profitability. They'd be useful for expressing differences in package size or interface speeds, but they do not belong in the conversation for profitability.

Do you mean die size or feature size?  28nm and 130nm are feature sizes, how big the transistors are.  Die sizes are how big the chips themselves are, and thus how much they cost to manufacture.

Smaller feature size means you can cram more transistors per mm2, which means you can get the same hash power with smaller, cheaper dies.

So in other words, the shipping company with the electric trucks and solar panels will have a much higher startup cost, but in the long run they will be able to charge less in the long run once that cost is amortized because they won't have to pay for gas or electricity.  They can continue to charge less until their competitors go out of business, if they feel like it.

But anyway, that doesn't really matter that much at this point, because there is so much profit available everyone can make money.  For now. But labcoin is going to have to keep up with the technology curve in the long run.

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August 29, 2013, 04:05:45 PM
 #4458

UPDATE-ISH:

I have just got off talking to Sam (not that way you Pervs). As you know we had some problems connecting the last few days, part technical and part because apparently we both require the occasional sleep.

No, I have not been fired, quit, disappeared or been eaten by Chtulu. Everything is moving forward according to plan and the team is hard at work preparing for the initial roll-out in week one of Sept.

After the roll-out the plan is to release chip documentation, more specs/pictures, PCB reference design and move to full production orders and bulk chip sales.

I know there are quite a few people interested in buying bulk-chips and/or miners and as we get closer to bulk chip arrival we will get back to everyone. Focus right now is verification, mining, documentation and receiving chips IN HAND.

It has always been the team's belief that especially as an unproven project pre-orders are the bane of the bitcoin community, something that has just been underscored again by the recent unfolding regarding for example Avalons chip delivery "issues".

One of the clear advantages of 130nm is the readily available production runs and low bulk production cost. With this in mind Labcoin has decided to not go the "pre-order" route and only accept orders for hardware with delivery date less than 10 days from order placement. As we hope is clear Labcoins 1st gen chips are not 'state of the art' chips that will push the limits on power consumption and effective but rather Labcoin focuses on pushing the envelope in terms of chip cost and time to market. As it looks now, we should be able to compete in price/hash-rate with December competition, and deliver chips as early as 2 months ahead of them, something that should be ROI+ no matter power cost for the mining public.

That's all the information I have for now. I am not going to set a "hard date" for the next update as it is apparent that doing so only creates unnecciary drama and I feel it's not in anyone's interest to feed the trolls who believe that a 48 hour delay in update means the end of civilization.

That's all for this time.

TLDR; Everything is moving forward as planned. Mining start is planned for week 1 of Sept. Documentation, bulk orders etc. will follow in the coming week/weeks after mining start. Me and Chtulu had a few drinks and are now thunder-buddies for life.
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August 29, 2013, 04:06:32 PM
 #4459

Hey Update! BUY BUY BUY, last moment to grab your share before the FUDs!

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August 29, 2013, 04:07:06 PM
 #4460

awesome company  Shocked
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