.

[notme]

IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.

Maybe, if you fixate on a single indicator it can fit any number of scenarios.

Can't ignore horizontal support and resistance, momentum.

+1

EW can be useful, but it should only be one piece of the puzzle.

[Tzupy]

$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

Interesting. What's that supposed to be? The bottom most price after capitulation?
If so, I believe 14th September is too early, I expect that about 10 days later.
And the bottom depends a lot on the status of $ withdrawals from Gox, so IMO it's too early
to get a precise number. If lots of funds ($) get withdrawn, we could drop to the 50s.

[xxjs]

So where are the noteworthy peaks?

After the original impulse from the run up to $266 on Wednesday, April 10, 2013 the unwinding of intermediate swings goes like this:

$50.01 Tuesday, April 16, 2013

$166.43 Wednesday, April 24, 2013
New net money actually came in for this, and after each swing is lower in volume than the last.

$79.00 Friday, May 03, 2013

$136.00 Sunday, May 26, 2013

$65.42 Friday, July 05, 2013

$124.94 Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Yes. I think It's done. If someone wants to do an EW fitting, or some such nonsense.


 

Great. Thanks.

[superduh]

$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

$138

[molecular]

IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.

the base of what I hear
on board called speculation
is greed and naked fear
not sober calculation

[notme]

IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.

the base of what I hear
on board called speculation
is greed and naked fear
not sober calculation

 

[rampantparanoia]

If lots of funds ($) get withdrawn, we could drop to the 50s.

Lots of funds will be withdrawn, thats for sure. Ever been held hostage? When you were set free, did you leisurely stroll out of the place or run the f out?

Disclaimer: I have never been held hostage, unless you count stuck in awkward situations as being held hostage.

[samson]

It looks like it's going to go down to me.

If we do break $125 convincingly any time soon with good bid support I might buy in but I find this outcome unlikely and I would be ready to dump it all in a heartbeat.

This is based merely on watching the charts since about January.

[dwdoc]

So where are the noteworthy peaks?

After the original impulse from the run up to $266 on Wednesday, April 10, 2013 the unwinding of intermediate swings goes like this:

$50.01 Tuesday, April 16, 2013

$166.43 Wednesday, April 24, 2013
New net money actually came in for this, and after each swing is lower in volume than the last.

$79.00 Friday, May 03, 2013

$136.00 Sunday, May 26, 2013

$65.42 Friday, July 05, 2013

$124.94 Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Yes. I think It's done. If someone wants to do an EW fitting, or some such nonsense.


 

So much for $124.94 being the peak...

[BlockChains]

Or some insiders know some things after the meeting in Washington today.

Could be bad, they're shutting down gox (buy and transfer)
Could be good (just friggin buy!)

[Ares]

Or some insiders know some things after the meeting in Washington today.

Could be bad, they're shutting down gox (buy and transfer)
Could be good (just friggin buy!)

If it was shutting down Gox, i'm sure one of them would have the moral compass to tell us.

[BlockChains]

Or some insiders know some things after the meeting in Washington today.

Could be bad, they're shutting down gox (buy and transfer)
Could be good (just friggin buy!)

If it was shutting down Gox, i'm sure one of them would have the moral compass to tell us.

Lol

[Tzupy]

Just 1 - 2 days before the market dropping big, we have this large whale buy ( just the 125 wall ) that pushes the price
eventually beyond 130. Question: is this related to the news of the BF meeting or it's something else?
Anyway, this proved that one large whale buy ( or dump ) can't be predicted by TA.
Maybe he's trying to trigger a parabolic rise, but I still doubt he has the means.

Chodbapa, would you mind issuing another prediction, considering that the parameters have changed ( at least as I see )?

[viboracecata]

Just 1 - 2 days before the market dropping big, we have this large whale buy ( just the 125 wall ) that pushes the price
eventually beyond 130. Question: is this related to the news of the BF meeting or it's something else?
Anyway, this proved that one large whale buy ( or dump ) can't be predicted by TA.
Maybe he's trying to trigger a parabolic rise, but I still doubt he has the means.

Chodbapa, would you mind issuing another prediction, considering that the parameters have changed ( at least as I see )?

Um... $137 Thursday, August 29, 2013

[Impaler]

Gox is seriously starting to run out of BTC, its down to 55K, that's 2 weeks of mining.  Clearly the flow of coins onto Gox has largely ceased and people their are essentially trading a limited pool back and forth.  When supply dropped to these levels in early January it was the beginning of the bubble which saw supply shrink to around 25K just prior to the crash.  Could we be re-entering that kind of bubble market?  I'm doubtful, the 2013 bubble had much much higher volume all through the run up then we can sustain now, if not for these whale-buys their would literally be no activity at all.   Clearly these prices are not bringing in vast numbers of speculators that we saw earlier this year, only established players are playing this market and their funds are limited.  

[sturle]

Gox is seriously starting to run out of BTC, its down to 55K, that's 2 weeks of mining.

55K isn't that bad.  It was lower in April.

[molecular]

If we do break $125 convincingly any time soon with good bid support I might buy in but I find this outcome unlikely and I would be ready to dump it all in a heartbeat.

Now what did you do?

[Tzupy]

Um... $137 Thursday, August 29, 2013

OK, thanks. It's believable, but I have serious doubts that the 135 resistance level will be broken.
Many got stuck there 3 months ago. If however the 135 is broken, I wouldn't be surprised to see 150.
Currently there are about 1.5M$ not deployed, which money if used to buy could set things rolling upwards.

PS. Important memo to myself: don't count the rebound as the first Elliot sub-wave!

[molecular]

If we do break $125 convincingly any time soon with good bid support I might buy in but I find this outcome unlikely and I would be ready to dump it all in a heartbeat.

Now what did you do?

found your answer in another thread:

I know I'm not buying anything at this price.

[oda.krell]

Had planned to say this for a while now, but I really appreciate that you post on here, chodpaba. The level of mathematical sophistication of your methods is way above what others write on here, myself included. Plus, you have the integrity to admit when your methods missed their target.

That said, one of your basic assumptions, that you've mentioned in a discussion before, is not adequate anymore: that a price model can be built on mtgox data alone. (Disclosure: I trade on bitstamp)

The argument for that assumption usually goes like: price on mtgox and all other exchanges are almost perfectly correllated (plus/minus some near constant price difference perhaps), and trends start on mtgox, so the price on other exchanges is largely a function of mtgox price.

I simply don't think that's the case anymore. For example, yesterday:





During most of the day, both exchanges were in a weak downtrend. A few large buy orders (in the range of 400k USD) turned the trend around on bitstamp Monday night. 6 or so hours later, mtgox really kicked off the current trend, with a buy volume of almost 4M USD. I'm sure on a bigger scale, it will look again like they're neatly correlated, but it's not at all clear to me that the big positive trend on mtgox is unrelated to the previous positive trend on bitstamp.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think mtgox and bitstamp are equally important in determining the price. Bitstamp has about half the total volume of mtgox now, but probably its influence on the price is an even smaller fraction. Doesn't really matter though, even if bitstamp only accounts for, say, 15% of the price development, that's a pretty big chunk to ignore IMO.

Interested in your opinion on this. (you could argue of course that since they're so strongly correlated, any influence other exchanges have on the price will eventually show up on the mtgox price itself, but for a serious predicitive model, that's kind of sloppy.)