HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet

[Ytterbium]

This seems rather premature. I suspect they saw Cointerra coming on the scene, and wanted to take away as much pre-order capital from them as possible. Good luck.

Yeah, Cointerra is supposedly going to deliver in November. If KnC delivers in early November, it'll probably pay for the cost difference at least (hopefully).

I actually doubt the difficulty slope will continue on the same exponential.

I think that's a very naive assumption.

But feel free to throw your money at another ASIC manufacturer when the track record for the entire industry is months to years late on delivery. I for one am not interested unless there is a guaranteed refund or discount for late delivery to compensate for the loss in ROI.

Maybe you should pay attention to what I was actually saying:  I think the slope 'exponent' is actually going to increase as all these large players dump their ASICs.  Once people realize it's not sustainable people will spend less on chips and the slope will start to go back down.  

I expect it will follow a sigmoid function:



But it obviously can't continue exponentially forever. Think about it.

The problem is that it will start to 'level off' when the cost is about break-even with electricity, as it did with GPUs.

[Ytterbium]

They are saying they'll refund if they're late.

However, only taking bitcoin - I think a lot of people's BTC might be tied up in KnC and mining shares, if not Avalon chip based pre-orders anyway.

They are offering a refund if late? I didn't see that mentioned on their site anywhere. Perhaps you could point it out? I'll be happy to eat my words if so.

Cypherdoc mentioned in his "paid sponsor" post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270363.0

He also said there would be some kind of protection plan if the difficulty goes up too much, but didn't elaborate.  And there's no guarantee that people who place orders today will actually get it.

[kaerf]

But it obviously can't continue exponentially forever. Think about it.

Yeah, but the Fall is probably going to be the steepest part of the curve.

[crashzilla]

Placed order but says on hold.  I don't think Bitpay went through

[cypherdoc]

Placed order but says on hold.  I don't think Bitpay went through

i've been told there is a large # of orders stuck in the queue.  they're working on it.

[gateway]

Placed order but says on hold.  I don't think Bitpay went through

Give bitpay a bit.. haha. umm but yea.. some issues, i think they will get resolved.. its like freaking buying concert tickets

[Kouye]

Hi Simon!

I can see why you needed to have 3 threads on top of the sub, for the launch, but that's a bit overkill, isn't it ?

Also, I have a few questions, care to enlighten me, please?
I might be able to convince Joey into buying a few dozen units.

[SgtSpike]

This seems rather premature. I suspect they saw Cointerra coming on the scene, and wanted to take away as much pre-order capital from them as possible. Good luck.

Yeah, Cointerra is supposedly going to deliver in November. If KnC delivers in early November, it'll probably pay for the cost difference at least (hopefully).

I actually doubt the difficulty slope will continue on the same exponential.

I think that's a very naive assumption.

But feel free to throw your money at another ASIC manufacturer when the track record for the entire industry is months to years late on delivery. I for one am not interested unless there is a guaranteed refund or discount for late delivery to compensate for the loss in ROI.

Maybe you should pay attention to what I was actually saying:  I think the slope 'exponent' is actually going to increase as all these large players dump their ASICs.  Once people realize it's not sustainable people will spend less on chips and the slope will start to go back down.  

I expect it will follow a sigmoid function:



But it obviously can't continue exponentially forever. Think about it.

The problem is that it will start to 'level off' when the cost is about break-even with electricity, as it did with GPUs.

Actually, I'd argue that GPU mining mostly leveled off when positive ROI was around 8 months, then the BTC price drove it to break-even with electricity.  I expect to see the same thing with ASICs - people will stop buying when it takes them more than 8 months to recover their initial investment.  The caveat is that preorders screw up the estimates, since no one really knows how much is on preorder, and so no one can properly estimate their break even points.  It could mean we accidentally shoot past the 8 month break-even window to something much longer.

Right now though, a HashFast unit would break even in 10 days.  At increased difficulty (quadrupled by BFL + this alone), you're still only looking at 40 days.  Difficulty would have to rise to 24 times its current rate in order to see the 8 month break even point.  I don't see that happening by October by any means.  Because of this, I think this is still a reasonable investment, should it be legitimate and they deliver on time.

I don't really trust anyone to deliver on time anymore though.

[HashFast]

We continue to to see problems connecting to bitpay, you may have to click on the pay now button several times to make a connection.
We apologize for the inconvenience.

John

[tom99]

  Will you ship out by USPS for Canada?

[CoinHoarder]

There is no much room in the pricing. If they are >4 weeks late (i.e. deliver late Nov) you are not gonna ROI. If they deliver on time, you will profit ~6k. This is with current difficulty slope and $/btc.

So... it's about the same type of deal as every other ASIC pre-order out there right now..

Is this surprising to you?!

Why would they sell for cheaper when they can just mine with them?

[Kouye]

We continue to to see problems connecting to bitpay, you may have to click on the pay now button several times to make a connection.
We apologize for the inconvenience.
John

Hi John!

I understand hoarding cash is a top priority (481 left in stock, way to go!)

I have a couple unanswered questions which your mates are ignoring.

Could you help me, please ?

[tom99]

There is no much room in the pricing. If they are >4 weeks late (i.e. deliver late Nov) you are not gonna ROI. If they deliver on time, you will profit ~6k. This is with current difficulty slope and $/btc.

So... it's about the same type of deal as every other ASIC pre-order out there right now..

Is this surprising to you?!

Why would they sell for cheaper when they can just mine with them?

  need cost to pay bills.

[jspielberg]

I am optimistic that they be able to execute on the chip (first go like KnC).

I think at one point they were mentioning that they were expecting their chips back from the fab to arrive in early October (or maybe we all inferred it from tape out schedule), so I think the end of October is going to be a very aggressive schedule.  The speed at which Intron and c-scape has been able to turn around useful designs from the bitfury chips gives me hope that with talented engineers, they could go from a near successful chip to successful miner in short order.  Everyone who has met with HashFast has said they were impressed with their technical capabilities...

These miners are currently the best price/performance leaders... but if they are more than a little late, it is very likely they will not earn back their costs.

I took the risk (but didn't cancel any of my other orders).

[Ytterbium]

Actually, I'd argue that GPU mining mostly leveled off when positive ROI was around 8 months, then the BTC price drove it to break-even with electricity.  I expect to see the same thing with ASICs - people will stop buying when it takes them more than 8 months to recover their initial investment.  The caveat is that preorders screw up the estimates, since no one really knows how much is on preorder, and so no one can properly estimate their break even points.  It could mean we accidentally shoot past the 8 month break-even window to something much longer.

Yeah, I used to think everyone would get scared off and not invest, keeping mining profitable. But at this point it looks like the market may end up completely flooded.

Right now though, a HashFast unit would break even in 10 days.  At increased difficulty (quadrupled by BFL + this alone), you're still only looking at 40 days.  Difficulty would have to rise to 24 times its current rate in order to see the 8 month break even point.  I don't see that happening by October by any means.  Because of this, I think this is still a reasonable investment, should it be legitimate and they deliver on time.

Right now we have about 350Th/s.  Avalon is rumored to have 2 million chips on order, which is 700Th/s.  This sale is 250Th total. Labcoin expects to have 500Th/s by november, as does BTCGarden.  IceDrill plans to have 500Th/s on order from FastHash. Let's ignore BFL for now.

But you also have KnC.  We actually don't know how many units they've sold, but if they've sold 2,500 units that's going to be about 1PH just by itself.

That comes out to 3.5 petahash online by November

Which is when Cointerra starts to ship.

Now, maybe some of these companies won't ship.  However, if you're going to assume HashFast ships it doesn't make much sense to assume no one else does.  And I'm also ignoring ActiveMining and BFL.

So, if all that's online before you start, you might be looking at around $60/day, or $1800 a month, before further difficulty increases from newer, cheaper chips.

So yeah.  I think it'll take a long, long time to ROI if all the other competitors execute.

[ninjarobot]

I don't believe the current babyjet image will be representative of the final product.

The image suggests 6 chips. Isn't this supposed to be a 1-chip solution?

[Ytterbium]

I don't believe the current babyjet image will be representative of the final product.

The image suggest 6 chips. Isn't this supposed to be a 1-chip solution?

Nice catch...

[cycloid]

Seems legit 

[mrwireman]

Why does BitPay use such a low figure for USD/BTC? Also, I wish local pickup was an option.

[Kouye]

I don't believe the current babyjet image will be representative of the final product.

The image suggests 6 chips. Isn't this supposed to be a 1-chip solution?

It is a one cheap solution, but the core is a 6 tentaculed octopus trying to make it through the solid (don't worry) case.
You might need to throw a few shrimps through the fan, if you see a TH/s downspike, but don't try to feed it yourself, and DO NOT OPEN THE CASE. BECAUSE OF GUARANTEE.