HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet

[Sitarow]

Next weekend we'll probably be at 340mil diff

- 400mil, actually.

Not sure if a 50% jump would be within the rules of the Bitcoin Network, because those 2016 (2015) blocks would just breeze through.

This value looks a bit high: http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

How about Next difficulty (estimate): 285,052,471 (+6%)

http://bitcoin difficulty.com/

That site just pulls data from dot-bit page which is down. You can refresh it all day, it wont update. MOreover they pull that data from dot-bit without attribution, then put a banner add on it for their own profit. Please delete that bookmark, and add these;

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php (currently down)
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (Estimated Next Difficulty:   401,706,911 (+50.04%))

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

The max increase or decrease to network difficulty is 4x and is in the code.

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[Syke]

Blockexplorer and allchains.info just do linear extrapolation. When there is a constant growth (exponential increase), they always understate the change. Just keep an eye on them, day after day (assuming the growth keeps up) you will see their estimate go up and eventually it will reach close to what dot-bit and bcw have said all along.

IM not entirely sure how dot-bit and bitcoinwisdom do their calculation, but they have been quite correct the last few changes I checked, even from an early stage. IN fact bitcoinwisdom even charts their past prediction and how it evolved (second chart, green line), and thats usually a fairly straight line, meaning, virtually no change in their prediction.

For the historical record, right now blockchain predicts 361169157, bcw predicts 402,822,686.
May the best one win

We're running close to 9 blocks per hour, so 50% increase is about right. Next update should break 400M.

[mgio]

So they should be getting chips this week, correct? Still a slim chance they could make the deadline it seems. Has there been any word from them? They still are insisting they will ship by the end of the month, correct?

[crumbs]

So they should be getting chips this week, correct? Still a slim chance they could make the deadline it seems. Has there been any word from them? They still are insisting they will ship by the end of the month, correct?

...
And, as of a few days ago, ... ...  it looks like we're probably going to slip, by about a week.

Ironically, not because of the silicon, even though that is the part of the system that takes the longest to manufacture. That's going through the foundry smoothly. But we ran into a delay sourcing one of our other components.

We've now found an alternative source. But that delay means it'll be challenging for us to ship finished systems before the end of October.

It's disappointing, but unfortunately these things happen. I'm glad we've made it this far through the process, and are still so close to our target date.
...

TL;DR: NO.  The packing popcorn order fell through -- interns have been hired to crumple newspapers.   These things happen.

[Puppet]

I'd rather take the one that is more accurate as of now and make my own extrapolations on how it will evolve. I realize it will likely be higher than 361 since KNC and others are still shipping and I'm taking that into account. bcw would have no way of knowing if they suddenly stopped though and the rate wasn't going to continue to rise.

Im not sure, but I dont think BCW assumes exponential growth either. Thats why I think the actual number will be higher even, probably closer to 450M.
But what blockexplorer seems to do is assume there is no trend and that hashrate will hold steady at the current level, and thats just not gonna happen. Even if KnC (and everyone else) stops shipping today, it will probably take those 5 days for all these rigs to be deployed.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Next weekend we'll probably be at 340mil diff

- 400mil, actually.

Not sure if a 50% jump would be within the rules of the Bitcoin Network, because those 2016 (2015) blocks would just breeze through.

This value looks a bit high: http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

How about Next difficulty (estimate): 285,052,471 (+6%)

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

The network allows up to a 300% increase (and a 75% decline) per adjustment.  A max difficulty jump has happened a few times at the start of the "GPU era".  I doubt we will ever see a 400% increase again because the network is so large now.   With the network at 3 PH/s it would need to increase by 9 PH/s within one difficulty adjustment.  Due to timing it probably would need to be be more like 12 to 18 PH being deployed within a week.  That would be like shipping 6,000 BabyJets or KNC Jupiter's every day.

[DPoS]

Due to timing it probably would need to be be more like 12 to 18 PH being deployed within a week.  That would be like shipping 6,000 BabyJets or KNC Jupiter's every day.

When I last spoke with the Cointerra management (after their successful code test) it was explained to me they already sent everything for tapeout and it was supposed to occur/complete in October.

.....

 and I'm not sure if this is public info or not, but I remember hearing the number 25,000 units/day capability.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Capability is different than sales.   Cointerra like HashFast is using third party to handle assembly and shipping.   How large of a run of chips did Cointerra pay for (or I guess I should say will pay for)?  Probably more than they sold but it is risky to pay for magnitude more chips than you have orders for.  So even if they can ship 25,000 units per day well that still won't be 18 PH delivered in a week unless they have 18 PH of chips (and pcb, and other components) ready to move.

Also Cointerra isn't shipping until January 1st (unless delayed tapeout still isn't done).  By January conservatively the network will be more like 8 to 10 PH/s.   So you are now talking about deploying 50 PH/s or more in a week to cause a max increase.  It could happen but I stand by my prediction that we will never again see a max difficulty change (+300% increase) and the further we get into the AISC "boom" the less likely it becomes.

[crumbs]

Capability is different than sales.   Cointerra like HashFast is using third party to handle assembly and shipping.   How large of a run of chips did Cointerra pay for?  Risky to pay for magnitude more chips than you have orders for.  So even if they can ship 25,000 units per day well that still won't be 18 PH/s unless they have 18,000 PH/s worth of chips (and pcb, and other components) ready to go. 

Also Cointerra isn't shipping until January 1st (unless delayed as their tapeout isn't complete and timeline was first week in Oct).  By January conservatively the network will be at least double.   So you are now talking about deploying 36 PH/s in a week.  It could happen but I stand by my prediction that we will never again see a max difficulty change (+300% increase).

So D&T, how much money did you blow on Hashfast?

[ninjarobot]

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

Wow. We're fucked.

This is the most accurate description of our situation I've seen so far.

[Bargraphics]

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

Wow. We're fucked.

This is the most accurate description of our situation I've seen so far.

Cypherdoc would disagree

[crumbs]

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

Wow. We're fucked.

This is the most accurate description of our situation I've seen so far.

Cypherdoc would disagree

Cypherdoc was *paid* to disagree.  I hope it covers his HW costs

[cypherdoc]

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

Wow. We're fucked.

This is the most accurate description of our situation I've seen so far.

Cypherdoc would disagree

why would i necessarily disagree?  do you disagree?

back when i was being paid, the #'s looked a lot more compelling than they do now.  let's not forget you were being bullish on KNC/Terrahash ordering back then too.  the relentless, exponential growth has surprised all of us.

HR is looking a little toppy right now; we'll have to see how much, if any, current lesser efficient asic mining gets turned off. 

[crumbs]

Are we on schedule for delivery?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270384.msg3382382#msg3382382  TL;DR: NO.

[Bargraphics]

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

Wow. We're fucked.

This is the most accurate description of our situation I've seen so far.

Cypherdoc would disagree

why would i necessarily disagree?  do you disagree?

back when i was being paid, the #'s looked a lot more compelling than they do now.  let's not forget you were being bullish on KNC/Terrahash ordering back then too.  the relentless, exponential growth has surprised all of us.

HR is looking a little toppy right now; we'll have to see how much, if any, current lesser efficient asic mining gets turned off.  

I have no comment until we see how the MPP plays out. Hashfast's chips may overperform, they might offer something additional to not make it so bad.

But if they don't offer anything additional and the MPP does exactly what it says it is going to do then yes I guess I would only agree that it's not looking that great.

The outlook is much worse if you were not first in line and paid retail prices.

Who knows what HF has up their sleeves.

[cypherdoc]

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

Wow. We're fucked.

This is the most accurate description of our situation I've seen so far.

Cypherdoc would disagree

why would i necessarily disagree?  do you disagree?

back when i was being paid, the #'s looked a lot more compelling than they do now.  let's not forget you were being bullish on KNC/Terrahash ordering back then too.  the relentless, exponential growth has surprised all of us.

HR is looking a little toppy right now; we'll have to see how much, if any, current lesser efficient asic mining gets turned off.  

I have no comment until we see how the MPP plays out. Hashfast's chips may overperform, they might offer something additional to not make it so bad.

But if they don't offer anything additional and the MPP does exactly what it says it is going to do then yes I guess I would only agree that it's not looking that great.

The outlook is much worse if you were not first in line and paid retail prices.

Who knows what HF has up their sleeves.

the things i do like right now, other than the HR, is the fact that there has only been one day in BTC history where the price has closed higher than it is right now.  this huge run up in Chinese investment is a great thing for all of us.  what BTC you do mine will be worth more in the future; possibly ALOT more.  in fact, one could make the argument that the rising price is a sign that money is finally being diverted away from the mining space into direct purchase of BTC.  i think that definitely is the conclusion that many are making and we've seen that right here in this forum.

the other dynamic that i think is undeniable is that all gpu mining should be shut down if not already.  and the non 28 nm asics will also with time.  the most efficient miners will be the ones that can make it thru this gauntlet. 

there will be a topping out of the HR somewhere along here.

[xstr8guy]

Next weekend we'll probably be at 340mil diff

- 400mil, actually.

Not sure if a 50% jump would be within the rules of the Bitcoin Network, because those 2016 (2015) blocks would just breeze through.

This value looks a bit high: http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

How about Next difficulty (estimate): 285,052,471 (+6%)

http://bitcoin difficulty.com/

That site just pulls data from dot-bit page which is down. You can refresh it all day, it wont update. MOreover they pull that data from dot-bit without attribution, then put a banner add on it for their own profit. Please delete that bookmark, and add these;

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php (currently down)
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (Estimated Next Difficulty:   401,706,911 (+50.04%))

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

I have a great app for my iphone called BTCmon.  The difficulty changes are quite accurate and you can also monitor your pools and exchange rates.

[Puppet]

the relentless, exponential growth has surprised all of us.

It most certainly has not.

[Ytterbium]

idiots.

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/594/solo-mining-vs-pool-mining-for-users-with-high-computing-power

"Theoretically, with a zero percent pool fee, solo mining and pooled mining should, over the long term, produce precisely the same revenue."-David Schwartz

Yes "Long term" - as the time it takes for you to mine hundreds or thousands of blocks. But, since the difficulty is increasing below a certain threshold that will be "never", or at least not until the difficulty levels out again.

Btw, Isn't HF supposed to ship this month? I'm sitting here with my KnC, I guess my "luck" in picking equipment makers is better then yours

back when i was being paid, the #'s looked a lot more compelling than they do now.  let's not forget you were being bullish on KNC/Terrahash ordering back then too.  the relentless, exponential growth has surprised all of us.

HR is looking a little toppy right now; we'll have to see how much, if any, current lesser efficient asic mining gets turned off.  

Hahahaha, what? Are you really this dumb? I remember you saying you thought hashrate would actually drop at some point in the future even, like a stock price.

Given the delivery date I think it's possible my KnC will pay for itself over the next couple months - I did pay for it with USD, rather then bitcoin though.   My Avalon paid for itself in USD in about a week, and in BTC in a month or so.

[cypherdoc]

idiots.

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/594/solo-mining-vs-pool-mining-for-users-with-high-computing-power

"Theoretically, with a zero percent pool fee, solo mining and pooled mining should, over the long term, produce precisely the same revenue."-David Schwartz

Yes "Long term" - as the time it takes for you to mine hundreds or thousands of blocks. But, since the difficulty is increasing below a certain threshold that will be "never", or at least not until the difficulty levels out again.

Btw, Isn't HF supposed to ship this month? I'm sitting here with my KnC, I guess my "luck" in picking equipment makers is better then yours

back when i was being paid, the #'s looked a lot more compelling than they do now.  let's not forget you were being bullish on KNC/Terrahash ordering back then too.  the relentless, exponential growth has surprised all of us.

HR is looking a little toppy right now; we'll have to see how much, if any, current lesser efficient asic mining gets turned off.  

Hahahaha, what? Are you really this dumb? I remember you saying you thought hashrate would actually drop at some point in the future even, like a stock price.

Given the delivery date I think it's possible my KnC will pay for itself over the next couple months - I did pay for it with USD, rather then bitcoin though.   My Avalon paid for itself in USD in about a week, and in BTC in a month or so.

it's too early to tell who's more "lucky".  

don't forget KNC had a head start so it's expected you're mining right now.  yes, it appears HF will be late.  don't know how late but i still prefer the apparent high quality parts they are using along with the cutting edge 28 nm tech.  you're right though; it could be useless if they're too late.

yes, i still maintain that the HR will stabilize or even drop at some point; probably sometime early next year after Cointerra ships (if they do at all).

i've actually had good luck with my Batch 2 Avalons as well.