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Author Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)  (Read 10963 times)
pinkflower
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February 02, 2018, 02:46:30 AM
 #161

That's exactly what OP wants to instill - fear. This kind of thiing always happens - or have you forgotten so soon?

Massive spike, followed by correction - during the dip, the bears are always saying that it will crash all the way, instead of just right above the previous peak levels (7.7k in this case), and draw made-up charts.

IF you want to sell, sell it. I'll take some cheap coins.

But fear is already instilled with or without this thread. Do you really believe that he has control on the whole market by posting in this thread?

Besides, why are you mad? This is a natural reaction after a massive bull market. But its still scary lol.

https://www.burst-coin.org/proof-of-capacity - Ensuring Maximum Fairness And Trivial Energy Consumption
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February 02, 2018, 02:46:46 AM
 #162

That's exactly what OP wants to instill - fear. This kind of thiing always happens - or have you forgotten so soon?

Massive spike, followed by correction - during the dip, the bears are always saying that it will crash all the way, instead of just right above the previous peak levels (7.7k in this case), and draw made-up charts.

IF you want to sell, sell it. I'll take some cheap coins.

When we will crash through 400B$ mktcap, I'll remind these words, to you.
You say this as we are in next paradigm. Are we? No
This is manipulated market from the start of it, and it's no different. Every bigger whale sees that there won't be more money, so takes what they have and run. There is 6-10B$ real money in whole crypto - now how it can so high marketcap? Obviosly - low supply on exchanges + pumps.
Now pumpers have taken profit, people are panicking, bad newses, creates more panick, anxiety, people see, that it isn't necessary what it should be, tech isn't still here, adoption is near 0, so they pull out money too. Nobody is buying, because buying in a downtrend is a suicidial in crypto world. So we are eating through this buy walls, like shark. We will have bounce for some to get out. Like 2014. Patterns usually doesn't change. And if you say that Bitcoin isn't now overvalued you are in denial.
We should go back just to the price, where miners will be at break even (2-2.8K, as I heard recently).
So yeah, pretty steep, just like 2015.
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February 02, 2018, 03:10:16 AM
 #163


Im starting to believe this and its scaring the hell out of me. My only hope is to find a stable altcoin where we could hold all our purses in until the bear market is over. My Burst investment is also not looking good lol.

If you have any STABLE altcoin suggestions please notify us lol.
Afraid cannot suggest any viable cryptocurrency as a stable investment during 2018-2020.

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unwinding bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases 80%-90% in value; see here:
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes/

Applying the same metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin at sub $1000 by Christmas 2018 or Easter 2019.
From late 2019 to early 2020, the second generation of cryptocurrencies ought to emerge as viable long-term investments; however, with stable growth, purpose fit technology, robust secure exchange platforms and real adoption —not parabolic exuberance.

Paradoxically, a volatile and rapid appreciation of a currency, is a failed currency. By definition, currencies are supposed to be recognized, accepted and stable mediums of exchange —not just another speculative boom-bust asset class.

Meanwhile, it is best to hold your purse in fiat currencies against the USD such as: GBP/JPY/CHF/EUR/AUD/CAD
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February 02, 2018, 03:49:42 AM
 #164

[,..]
 We will have bounce for some to get out. Like 2014. Patterns usually doesn't change. And if you say that Bitcoin isn't now overvalued you are in denial.
We should go back just to the price, where miners will be at break even (2-2.8K, as I heard recently).
So yeah, pretty steep, just like 2015.
I mostly agree with your post, however I think it won't be a very steep way down. At least for Bitcoin.

If you look at 2014 charts, the price hovered almost a year around the 500-600 USD mark, which was about 50% of the ATH price (1150 at Stamp, 1250 at Gox). The general trend was downwards, but there were massive bounces.

50% of the current ATH is 9000-10000 USD. So we are now in a range where the price will probably stabilize. In my opinion, we will see $7000 (maybe even a short dip to $5000), but also $12000 (even $14K are possible) in the next 3-4 months.

Many altcoins without solid fundamentals, above all those I call "hype coins" (most ICOs and a few pumped altcoins, e.g. those "endorsed" by Mr. McAfee), will fall much deeper and steeper.

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February 02, 2018, 03:57:26 AM
 #165


Many altcoins without solid fundamentals, above all those I call "hype coins" (most ICOs and a few pumped altcoins, e.g. those "endorsed" by Mr. McAfee), will fall much deeper and steeper.

Not all altcoins endorsed by John McAfee are "hype coins". He endorsed Burst but the development behind it is not a joke, not like the better part of the ICOs.

https://www.burst-coin.org/proof-of-capacity - Ensuring Maximum Fairness And Trivial Energy Consumption
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February 02, 2018, 05:10:14 AM
 #166


Many altcoins without solid fundamentals, above all those I call "hype coins" (most ICOs and a few pumped altcoins, e.g. those "endorsed" by Mr. McAfee), will fall much deeper and steeper.

Not all altcoins endorsed by John McAfee are "hype coins". He endorsed Burst but the development behind it is not a joke, not like the better part of the ICOs.
OK, regarding Burst, you're right. But most of his other "coins of the day" were ... not very convincing.

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February 02, 2018, 05:28:40 AM
 #167


Im starting to believe this and its scaring the hell out of me. My only hope is to find a stable altcoin where we could hold all our purses in until the bear market is over. My Burst investment is also not looking good lol.

If you have any STABLE altcoin suggestions please notify us lol.



Don't rely on alts for holding value. They are good for speculation and for gaining profit on spikes, but not as a value storage. I would hold on BTC (maybe keep some ETH too, as a kind of 'hedge', not to put all eggs into just one basket). But sure, you decide.

NEO might be something, though it's just as risky since China hasn't come up with regulation yet. And if you trust in NEO, then NEO alts ofc.

I'm not sure why an altcoin would be better to invest in now than in ETH itself. It might be cheap to get into things like Cindicator and QuantStamp right now if their product interests you. Their product is based on a fixed token price, so that product is relatively cheaper right now, and they are being used by an active community, meaning there is support. That is if you trust Ethereum in the first place. Still that doesn't guarantee that those coins are stable, QSP is a bit on the expensive side with their 200000 token product price. It's not that expensive for people who hold bitcoin from the time it was 2 or 3 digits, but for new players it's a lot.

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February 02, 2018, 05:42:46 AM
 #168

That's exactly what OP wants to instill - fear. This kind of thiing always happens - or have you forgotten so soon?

Massive spike, followed by correction - during the dip, the bears are always saying that it will crash all the way, instead of just right above the previous peak levels (7.7k in this case), and draw made-up charts.

IF you want to sell, sell it. I'll take some cheap coins.

When we will crash through 400B$ mktcap, I'll remind these words, to you.
You say this as we are in next paradigm. Are we? No
This is manipulated market from the start of it, and it's no different. Every bigger whale sees that there won't be more money, so takes what they have and run. There is 6-10B$ real money in whole crypto - now how it can so high marketcap? Obviosly - low supply on exchanges + pumps.
Now pumpers have taken profit, people are panicking, bad newses, creates more panick, anxiety, people see, that it isn't necessary what it should be, tech isn't still here, adoption is near 0, so they pull out money too. Nobody is buying, because buying in a downtrend is a suicidial in crypto world. So we are eating through this buy walls, like shark. We will have bounce for some to get out. Like 2014. Patterns usually doesn't change. And if you say that Bitcoin isn't now overvalued you are in denial.
We should go back just to the price, where miners will be at break even (2-2.8K, as I heard recently).
So yeah, pretty steep, just like 2015.

This is my thought as well, but as I look at the charts the wall is piling up and moving forward now  Huh

I expect everyone who didn't put fair money into this is leaving ship, or has left ship. Also, looking at USDT it seems that someone is putting a lot of faith in there? It is now at 0.9854. Bet it goes >.99 again in a moment. But my gut says the actual price for USDT is already 0.

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February 02, 2018, 05:53:11 AM
 #169

Oke weird thought.

The US government is buying all the USDT with real USD, which they can print almost for free. Until they hold a significant portion, or maybe even all of it, they continue to do so. Tether and Bitfinex are thereafter declared in violation of the law, and all possessions will be seized. Then the amount of USD initially invested by the US government (during their buy period) might eventually even be destroyed, so that it does not affect the USD market itself.

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February 02, 2018, 05:54:25 AM
 #170


Im starting to believe this and its scaring the hell out of me. My only hope is to find a stable altcoin where we could hold all our purses in until the bear market is over. My Burst investment is also not looking good lol.

If you have any STABLE altcoin suggestions please notify us lol.



Don't rely on alts for holding value. They are good for speculation and for gaining profit on spikes, but not as a value storage. I would hold on BTC (maybe keep some ETH too, as a kind of 'hedge', not to put all eggs into just one basket). But sure, you decide.

NEO might be something, though it's just as risky since China hasn't come up with regulation yet. And if you trust in NEO, then NEO alts ofc.

I'm not sure why an altcoin would be better to invest in now than in ETH itself. It might be cheap to get into things like Cindicator and QuantStamp right now if their product interests you. Their product is based on a fixed token price, so that product is relatively cheaper right now, and they are being used by an active community, meaning there is support. That is if you trust Ethereum in the first place. Still that doesn't guarantee that those coins are stable, QSP is a bit on the expensive side with their 200000 token product price. It's not that expensive for people who hold bitcoin from the time it was 2 or 3 digits, but for new players it's a lot.

FYI - ETH is an alt coin.

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Apekool
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February 02, 2018, 05:59:43 AM
 #171


Im starting to believe this and its scaring the hell out of me. My only hope is to find a stable altcoin where we could hold all our purses in until the bear market is over. My Burst investment is also not looking good lol.

If you have any STABLE altcoin suggestions please notify us lol.



Don't rely on alts for holding value. They are good for speculation and for gaining profit on spikes, but not as a value storage. I would hold on BTC (maybe keep some ETH too, as a kind of 'hedge', not to put all eggs into just one basket). But sure, you decide.

NEO might be something, though it's just as risky since China hasn't come up with regulation yet. And if you trust in NEO, then NEO alts ofc.

I'm not sure why an altcoin would be better to invest in now than in ETH itself. It might be cheap to get into things like Cindicator and QuantStamp right now if their product interests you. Their product is based on a fixed token price, so that product is relatively cheaper right now, and they are being used by an active community, meaning there is support. That is if you trust Ethereum in the first place. Still that doesn't guarantee that those coins are stable, QSP is a bit on the expensive side with their 200000 token product price. It's not that expensive for people who hold bitcoin from the time it was 2 or 3 digits, but for new players it's a lot.

FYI - ETH is an alt coin.

y y my mistake

altcoin defines in my mind what in reality is a token Tongue

I consider eth not as altcoin because I don't accept bitcoin as the major crypto currency. It just currently is, and it's overrated.

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February 02, 2018, 06:06:15 AM
 #172

Bitcoin in the future is going to be what the Roman coins are like now.

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February 02, 2018, 06:07:19 AM
 #173

Or governments must totally fail, which is also very likely tbh.

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February 02, 2018, 08:21:57 AM
 #174

Oke weird thought.

The US government is buying all the USDT with real USD, which they can print almost for free. Until they hold a significant portion, or maybe even all of it, they continue to do so. Tether and Bitfinex are thereafter declared in violation of the law, and all possessions will be seized. Then the amount of USD initially invested by the US government (during their buy period) might eventually even be destroyed, so that it does not affect the USD market itself.

You absolutely have no clue, what's going on do you?
I have some assumption, and theory, but not so ridiculous, sorry to say.
Insiders know, what is situation in Bitfinex from about month or 2, and they are dumping on all people slowly, now it accelerated with subpoena, and CTFC, they see, that bitfinexed probably is right, other people also accelerated and has been going out.
USDT is over and will under 1$.
Or it's normal market cycle after huge bubble and unreasonable demand - manipulated market by sharks, and we are going to 2-3K - that's better, if tether is solvent. If not, it will be a nightmare.
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February 02, 2018, 08:29:11 AM
 #175

[,..]
 We will have bounce for some to get out. Like 2014. Patterns usually doesn't change. And if you say that Bitcoin isn't now overvalued you are in denial.
We should go back just to the price, where miners will be at break even (2-2.8K, as I heard recently).
So yeah, pretty steep, just like 2015.
I mostly agree with your post, however I think it won't be a very steep way down. At least for Bitcoin.

If you look at 2014 charts, the price hovered almost a year around the 500-600 USD mark, which was about 50% of the ATH price (1150 at Stamp, 1250 at Gox). The general trend was downwards, but there were massive bounces.

50% of the current ATH is 9000-10000 USD. So we are now in a range where the price will probably stabilize. In my opinion, we will see $7000 (maybe even a short dip to $5000), but also $12000 (even $14K are possible) in the next 3-4 months.

Many altcoins without solid fundamentals, above all those I call "hype coins" (most ICOs and a few pumped altcoins, e.g. those "endorsed" by Mr. McAfee), will fall much deeper and steeper.

@d5000 - look what's going on now. I don't know what really caused such panic, but it doesn't looks like normal people are only selling, that whales are selling too.
Look at volume. Looks really bad. In 2015 there wasnt so much dumb capital, as right now. So imo we are heading to 2-3K. And if tether isn't solvent - then ... 1K.
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February 02, 2018, 12:05:47 PM
 #176

Bitcoin in the future is going to be what the Roman coins are like now.

I.e. rare and valuable? Wink

I guess many people here hugely underestimate Bitcoin's potential (both development potential, and the ideological aspect) and neglect the community standing behind it. BTC is not just another 'asset', it is a whole phenomenon, with many believers behind it, besides just a price speculators and 'tech analysts' collected here. Don't neglect its power.

Well, we'll see who is right. Still many scenarios possible. Its fun to watch, quite entertaining.. Grin

... this space is not for rent ...
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February 02, 2018, 12:13:08 PM
 #177


Im starting to believe this and its scaring the hell out of me. My only hope is to find a stable altcoin where we could hold all our purses in until the bear market is over. My Burst investment is also not looking good lol.

If you have any STABLE altcoin suggestions please notify us lol.



Don't rely on alts for holding value. They are good for speculation and for gaining profit on spikes, but not as a value storage. I would hold on BTC (maybe keep some ETH too, as a kind of 'hedge', not to put all eggs into just one basket). But sure, you decide.

NEO might be something, though it's just as risky since China hasn't come up with regulation yet. And if you trust in NEO, then NEO alts ofc.

I'm not sure why an altcoin would be better to invest in now than in ETH itself. It might be cheap to get into things like Cindicator and QuantStamp right now if their product interests you. Their product is based on a fixed token price, so that product is relatively cheaper right now, and they are being used by an active community, meaning there is support. That is if you trust Ethereum in the first place. Still that doesn't guarantee that those coins are stable, QSP is a bit on the expensive side with their 200000 token product price. It's not that expensive for people who hold bitcoin from the time it was 2 or 3 digits, but for new players it's a lot.

FYI - ETH is an alt coin.

Well if btc can't reciver from this then most likely any alts won't do any better. If it's not that obvious, it's not only btc that's "crashing" right now now but pretty much the entire market. The good thing for me is that nothing is stable in crypto and a decline this hard would moat likely generate a good bounce back. We just have to wait.

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February 02, 2018, 01:13:13 PM
 #178

Short position ordered at $12485 with a stop-loss at $13017 on BTC/USD (Bitfinex).

1. ^ This trade has now been closed with a 35% profit.



Short position opened as follows:

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 11354
CLOSE: 7600
STOP: 12190
RISK: 7.5%
REWARD: 30%

Idealised and speculative Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure, not time:
https://i.imgur.com/ukNPCjy.png
https://i.imgur.com/jWJRZYq.png

2. ^ This trade has now been closed with a 25% profit.
 



3. ^ This trade has now been closed with a 30% profit.



Pinch punch first trade of the month... another short position opened...

BTC/USD (COINBASE)
OPEN: 9601
CLOSE: 7864
STOP: 10296
RISK: 7.3%
REWARD: 18%

https://i.imgur.com/xvtCNcH.png

4. ^ This trade has now been closed with a 18% profit.
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February 02, 2018, 01:54:42 PM
 #179

Well, I have to admit that OP was right all along.

However, this wasn't a crypto crash. Rather now the price will recover back to 5 digits, and from there, we will see.

But I should have known that it was price manipulation by a coordinated effort from short-sellers Smiley

Using crypto to pay for college.
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February 02, 2018, 02:02:07 PM
 #180

Time for a bounce? A speculative buy order has been placed as follows...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8600
CLOSE: 12058
STOP: 7960*
RISK: 7.5%
REWARD: 40%

*A hedge, not a stop-loss, has been placed at 7690 as there may be a final flush to 7600 area.

Barring any wave subdivisions, there are now a sufficient count of waves to suggest the first Primary a-wave of the crash is over.
The a-wave decline from 06-JAN-2018 ought to be retraced by a b-wave bounce retracing up to 38.2% (11510) to 50% (12606) with the average being at 12058.

Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, Robert Prechter:

"b-waves — b-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of oddlotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often 'unconfirmed' by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by c-wave. If the analyst can easily say to himself, 'there is something wrong with this market', chances are it's a b-wave."

Speculative and idealised Elliott Wave models indicative of probable price and structure, not timing as follows:


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