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Author Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)  (Read 11595 times)
muf18
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February 24, 2018, 05:01:09 PM
 #321

And another reason why I'm so bearish: in the last crash, the one until $6000, there was a HUGE buyer, who kept the market alive on his own, on bitfinex. He easily bought 25.000 BTC when it started tanking within 24 hours, using hidden orders. I made a topic about it when it happened: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2864671.0 And he kept buying after the first 24 hours too, all the way up to 10k. Without this guy the markets would have tanked to $3000-$4000. And the thing is, I haven't seen this guy in a while. So it seems he's done. Without him, the markets will die way harder than last time if it starts tanking.

Probably one of the sheningans from bitfinex, to give early adopters, and other people, who are actually dumping, some breath and not crush market totally.
Strange enough I'm seeing, that these guys want to sell BTC quite fast - these 5M red candles, are containing about 200-500BTC each of dumped BTC.

At least we have orderbook open and can see, that there is shady practices going on.
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drays
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February 24, 2018, 06:55:34 PM
Last edit: February 24, 2018, 07:34:08 PM by drays
 #322

And another reason why I'm so bearish: in the last crash, the one until $6000, there was a HUGE buyer, who kept the market alive on his own, on bitfinex. He easily bought 25.000 BTC when it started tanking within 24 hours, using hidden orders. I made a topic about it when it happened: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2864671.0 And he kept buying after the first 24 hours too, all the way up to 10k. Without this guy the markets would have tanked to $3000-$4000. And the thing is, I haven't seen this guy in a while. So it seems he's done. Without him, the markets will die way harder than last time if it starts tanking.

Well, that 'guy' doesn't need to be there all the time. If he bought at lows and disappeared for a while, one would assume he could be accumulating. If you didn't see him selling, thats actually good news.

This market IS manipulated, so any kind of surprises are to be expected. The natural strong support currently lies quite lower, somewhere around 2K, in my humble opinion. There is an old masterluk chart, which looks to be quite good to base on. According to that, current strong support is around 6-7K, with the huge level of support being around 2.8K. BTW, that chart was there when we bounced from 6k, exactly from the level he has predicted almost one year ago.

In any case the important thing is - this new technology has a merit (a lot of it) and the natural support will grow, as the tech matures. This is important to remember, to keep the peace of mind. And the peace of mind is much more important than the price Smiley

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February 25, 2018, 02:55:40 AM
Last edit: March 23, 2018, 02:32:02 AM by drays
 #323

Interesting... If we take the pattern of the 2013-2014 bubble (for example from here: https://mobile.twitter.com/cryptohodlor/status/958352479934017539/photo/1) and just plainly apply it on current one, we can notice up to now everything seems extremely similar. Even the bounce levels are exactly the same, we just need to make two adjustments:
 1. The price on the old chart has to be multiplied by around x18 (the total peak of 1.1K becomes 20K, the first bounce bottom of 330 becomes 6K, the bounce peak of 670 becomes 12K etc)
 2. The time scale needs to be adjusted by around x3 (things now seem to change 3x faster)

With those adjustments to the old chart we get exactly what we have now in 2018.

If this analogy is correct, the absolute bottom of this beginning bear market will be around 3.8-4K, it will be reached in around 4 months from the peak (somewhere in April), and the overall length of bear market would be around 8 months (rising back somewhere in August?).


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rusla99
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February 26, 2018, 07:26:27 PM
 #324

Any changes?
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February 27, 2018, 01:09:07 AM
 #325

Any changes?
No change so far.
Expecting the bounce to end around 10556 to 10845 (Coinbase).


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February 27, 2018, 03:43:48 PM
 #326

Honestly, I have enough of these topics when someone is claiming that the cryptocurrency is gonna crash.
And every time when something like our current decline is happening they are totally happy and think that this is something they predicted.
Ha, fat chance - no one could predict anything linked to the future price of cryptocurrency, we can only speculate and base our knowledge on extrapolation!
Don't waste your time with theories who have no scientific background and instead are constructed to be FUD spreaders.
This is right, even if someone is able to guess correctly, that was it, a guess, it is irrelevant unless you can provide accurate predictions again and again and we know no one can do that since the markets are incredibly complex and no one has devised a way to predict them accurately.

So you actually say that's it's better just to blindly put money, instead of actual doing of TA, and getting some more help from fundamentals (which are mainly only some drive from TA based perspective, as well as from rela perspective also) they adds fuel only.

TA can't be 100% accurate. But if you are >=70% accurate, that's not just a random guess or accident.
That is the problem if someone was able to predict the market with 70% accuracy then that will be fine since you will make money with that kind of percentage of prediction but no one can do that either, most traders are no better at selecting the direction the market is going to take than someone flipping a coin.
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March 01, 2018, 11:46:27 AM
 #327

Still in short position?
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March 01, 2018, 08:08:53 PM
 #328

Still in short position?

Yes...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
exstasie
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March 01, 2018, 09:45:34 PM
 #329

Still in short position?

Yes...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%

The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?

The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....

....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!

To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet. Smiley

muf18
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March 01, 2018, 10:31:46 PM
 #330

Things can prologate in time, but we can see that large players are still dumping on any rise.
Sometimes with hundreds of BTC in one minute.

Maybe it's not a case, but still, we just moved from this low without anything, and moved on, didn't rally so much too, just in the limbo zone.
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March 02, 2018, 12:27:06 AM
 #331

Still in short position?

Yes...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%

The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?

The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....

....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!

To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet. Smiley

Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.

10,000 is a strong psychological level, so would expect price action to linger ±1000 points either side of it for a while to confuse both the bulls & bears. However, the wider crypto market provides the clues and is favoring the bears.

Would reassess the bear market analysis if +13,000 is taken out to the upside.
drawingthesun
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March 02, 2018, 03:55:50 AM
 #332

Cryptocurrency bubble appears to be over, and a spectacular crash and bear market seems imminent.

Man I am old! I've been hearing this for years! Haha it's like the children never learn and think they are born knowing everything.

There have been plenty of spectacular crashes, they are fun, get the heart pumping, but in the end it's all just a blip in the road ahead.

I am seeing so many people do meet ups and talk about Bitcoin and crypto currency it's is crazy. To see how far this has all come!

To think it's all over is insane, what world are you living in!

Bitcoin may bounce towards approx $15500 on Bitfinex, followed by a crash towards $7000-$8000, and then eventually to $2000-$4000.     

Yawn. This is really not a novel prediction and even if it were to happen and turn into a bear market for 2018 it doesn't matter, it never has.

Are you really buying for the month to month price swings? That's a good way to get destroyed.

Try investing for a few years at least.

Majority of other cryptocurrencies may cease to exist.

And exactly what mechanic will cause this to happen? Not sure if you're aware but the founding principle of crypto is based on Nakamoto consensus which means that it's unlikely a decentralized system will die. Hell even 51% attacked coins continue to exist and process transactions.

P.S. It is most unfortunate that people of Reddit have chosen to bury, down-vote and delete all posts of this subject matter! Losses could be prevented and gains donated to charity!     

Meh, anyone scared of short term losses shouldn't be in crypto currency anyway.
crypt0dude
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March 02, 2018, 01:21:32 PM
 #333

Still in short position?

Yes...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%

The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?

The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....

....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!

To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet. Smiley

Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.

10,000 is a strong psychological level, so would expect price action to linger ±1000 points either side of it for a while to confuse both the bulls & bears. However, the wider crypto market provides the clues and is favoring the bears.

Would reassess the bear market analysis if +13,000 is taken out to the upside.


You got some balls to not have closed your short here if you ain't scalping, it's obvious the bull run is not about to end, but gaining momentum and strength for the last few days. They gonna squeeze the shorts, just like they gonna catch joe fomo at the top again.
If we look at fractals from '11 and '14 (blow off top), the bull trap happens around 13k, not before. This is "normal" phase before the crash to 8k -> 4.6k -> 3k -> 2k and I wouldn't be surprised 3 digits to $1k in accumulation phase and I wouldn't be even surprised if we continue the bubble to 50k before crashing, although the latter possibility is < 10% (given the emotional state of a hurt pleb (and yes, everyone in the world already knows about bitcoin, you're late and a pleb if you don't know, because you're one of them), lack of volume conviction and the major bad news that still is en route).
Nevertheless, the cycles get faster after each bubble, so end of 2018 we can already be at 10k or even 20k. A bear market for 1-2 year ain't bad.

Nevertheless, your fractals are on spot, around same trajectory as me, but this short at mid level can cost you some $$.
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March 02, 2018, 06:22:03 PM
 #334

Still in short position?

Yes...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%

The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?

The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....

....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!

To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet. Smiley

Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.

10,000 is a strong psychological level, so would expect price action to linger ±1000 points either side of it for a while to confuse both the bulls & bears. However, the wider crypto market provides the clues and is favoring the bears.

Would reassess the bear market analysis if +13,000 is taken out to the upside.


You got some balls to not have closed your short here if you ain't scalping, it's obvious the bull run is not about to end, but gaining momentum and strength for the last few days. They gonna squeeze the shorts, just like they gonna catch joe fomo at the top again.
If we look at fractals from '11 and '14 (blow off top), the bull trap happens around 13k, not before. This is "normal" phase before the crash to 8k -> 4.6k -> 3k -> 2k and I wouldn't be surprised 3 digits to $1k in accumulation phase and I wouldn't be even surprised if we continue the bubble to 50k before crashing, although the latter possibility is < 10% (given the emotional state of a hurt pleb (and yes, everyone in the world already knows about bitcoin, you're late and a pleb if you don't know, because you're one of them), lack of volume conviction and the major bad news that still is en route).
Nevertheless, the cycles get faster after each bubble, so end of 2018 we can already be at 10k or even 20k. A bear market for 1-2 year ain't bad.

Nevertheless, your fractals are on spot, around same trajectory as me, but this short at mid level can cost you some $$.

So basically for you first move we are going to fake breakout now till 13K, and then go to 8-6-4.6 and 3K?
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March 02, 2018, 07:13:47 PM
 #335

Still in short position?

Yes...

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%

The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?

The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....

....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!

To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet. Smiley

Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.

10,000 is a strong psychological level, so would expect price action to linger ±1000 points either side of it for a while to confuse both the bulls & bears. However, the wider crypto market provides the clues and is favoring the bears.

Would reassess the bear market analysis if +13,000 is taken out to the upside.


You got some balls to not have closed your short here if you ain't scalping, it's obvious the bull run is not about to end, but gaining momentum and strength for the last few days. They gonna squeeze the shorts, just like they gonna catch joe fomo at the top again.
If we look at fractals from '11 and '14 (blow off top), the bull trap happens around 13k, not before. This is "normal" phase before the crash to 8k -> 4.6k -> 3k -> 2k and I wouldn't be surprised 3 digits to $1k in accumulation phase and I wouldn't be even surprised if we continue the bubble to 50k before crashing, although the latter possibility is < 10% (given the emotional state of a hurt pleb (and yes, everyone in the world already knows about bitcoin, you're late and a pleb if you don't know, because you're one of them), lack of volume conviction and the major bad news that still is en route).
Nevertheless, the cycles get faster after each bubble, so end of 2018 we can already be at 10k or even 20k. A bear market for 1-2 year ain't bad.

Nevertheless, your fractals are on spot, around same trajectory as me, but this short at mid level can cost you some $$.

So basically for you first move we are going to fake breakout now till 13K, and then go to 8-6-4.6 and 3K?

Yes, 6 feb was new cycle and we finish ew 5th leg to around 13k, which coincides with 50% retracement on the entire structure since bullrun. I'd consider this a full out bull trap and a good place to short starting from 12.85k.
Correlates to fractals of '11 and '14. The crash will be consolidated with spring cycle with sharp move downward.
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March 02, 2018, 10:30:44 PM
 #336

Fractal of '14 is 11.5k and '11 13k. I wouldn't want to short in a bullish environment that has huge momentum, you'll get rekt.
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March 02, 2018, 11:10:28 PM
 #337

This guy has been wrong multiple times.  Be careful of what he says!
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March 03, 2018, 11:05:25 AM
 #338

This is all very interesting indeed..

"Suppressing bad ideas can be as dangerous as the bad ideas themselves." | [x0z] Zerozed is an experiment on Blockspace Economics using a Diffusion of Innovations based incentive model.
KimJungUn
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March 03, 2018, 03:02:05 PM
 #339

This guy has been wrong multiple times.  Be careful of what he says!


Exactly.  This guy's name is Steve Puri and he's been wrong every time in the past.

Check out this:

http://stevepuri.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-speculative-elliott-wave-projection.html


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March 03, 2018, 04:18:31 PM
 #340

Elliott Wave is totally nonsense!
There isn't something else in the trading community what is viewed as critical as this hoky poky wave prediction crap.
I don't any EW trader who is successful over the long run or always adjusting his wave count when got proved wrong again and again.
Focus on TA and forget about market or chart predictions in general.
Just react to what is happening in the charts and try to make some profits or just hodl for years!
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