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Author Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)  (Read 25647 times)
drays
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November 15, 2018, 10:45:23 PM
Last edit: November 15, 2018, 11:15:56 PM by drays
Merited by d5000 (1), JayJuanGee (1)
 #701

The final and total analysis is the one that counts from the count Elliot of OP, and he has indicated several times around 1000 $ as the final target of Bitcoin in 2020.

"Final and total" heh.. I hope you understand he didn't get this $1000 target figure from the Elliot Waves analysis.

He actually got that number by combining two sources - (a) the fact that a "typical" bubble of an ordinary asset loses about 90-95% of value (5% of 20K is 1K); and (b) he believes Bitcoin is an ordinary overvalued asset, which just got through its first serious bubble condition. If we take those two presumptions, we get the 1K target (though by some reason OP liked to talk about $500-800 target too, but that doesn't like to fit with any theory, and is probably just reflects his preferences).

However, there are many people here (including me) who do not share his point (b). That's the main reason of arguments here (your friends call it "hating" and somehow you feel a need to defend OP from the nasty "haters").

As I don't share his point (b), to me $1000 figure seems to be too low... if Bitcoin reaches $1000 again, it could be a point of no return and it could happen only in case of a extremely serious problem comparing to catastrophe (serious bug in the code, Satoshi moving his funds, quantum computing suddenly making all current cryptography useless, or similar). Based on previous bubbles, if nothing like that happens, this bear market has to end between 3K and 4K, spending the most time moving around $4K, with few short dumps to around 3K. By the way, 3.1K is where the current weekly MA200 resides, and breaking below that is highly undesirable for anyone who believes in Bitcoin's future and understands markets a little bit.

There is an interesting article published just before this last dump: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-is-charting-this-death-cross-for-first-time-since-2014
This guy predicted the dump just before it actually happened. Look at parallels with 2014. If we apply them, we are now moving into the "despair" state of 2015, where we got two bottoms with about 50% of price of the state where the cross happened - so around 3K more or less.

Sorry I have no graphs to make my assumptions look more "scientific" and convincing to people who like graphs... You can draw them in you head, as I do Smiley.
No beautiful Fibonacci numbers too  Sad Wink I believe they are useful to short term traders mainly, who need exact numbers to day-trade... I prefer long-term - its far less stressful, and allows to stay cool and calm.

... this space is not for rent ...
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November 16, 2018, 08:30:17 AM
 #702

The final and total analysis is the one that counts from the count Elliot of OP, and he has indicated several times around 1000 $ as the final target of Bitcoin in 2020.

"Final and total" heh.. I hope you understand he didn't get this $1000 target figure from the Elliot Waves analysis.

He actually got that number by combining two sources - (a) the fact that a "typical" bubble of an ordinary asset loses about 90-95% of value (5% of 20K is 1K); and (b) he believes Bitcoin is an ordinary overvalued asset, which just got through its first serious bubble condition. If we take those two presumptions, we get the 1K target (though by some reason OP liked to talk about $500-800 target too, but that doesn't like to fit with any theory, and is probably just reflects his preferences).

However, there are many people here (including me) who do not share his point (b). That's the main reason of arguments here (your friends call it "hating" and somehow you feel a need to defend OP from the nasty "haters").

As I don't share his point (b), to me $1000 figure seems to be too low... if Bitcoin reaches $1000 again, it could be a point of no return and it could happen only in case of a extremely serious problem comparing to catastrophe (serious bug in the code, Satoshi moving his funds, quantum computing suddenly making all current cryptography useless, or similar). Based on previous bubbles, if nothing like that happens, this bear market has to end between 3K and 4K, spending the most time moving around $4K, with few short dumps to around 3K. By the way, 3.1K is where the current weekly MA200 resides, and breaking below that is highly undesirable for anyone who believes in Bitcoin's future and understands markets a little bit.

There is an interesting article published just before this last dump: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-is-charting-this-death-cross-for-first-time-since-2014
This guy predicted the dump just before it actually happened. Look at parallels with 2014. If we apply them, we are now moving into the "despair" state of 2015, where we got two bottoms with about 50% of price of the state where the cross happened - so around 3K more or less.

Sorry I have no graphs to make my assumptions look more "scientific" and convincing to people who like graphs... You can draw them in you head, as I do Smiley.
No beautiful Fibonacci numbers too  Sad Wink I believe they are useful to short term traders mainly, who need exact numbers to day-trade... I prefer long-term - its far less stressful, and allows to stay cool and calm.

Well said!

I do think that if whales drop it to bellow 4k it would cause panic and even mass sell off imho. That being said, I also don't believe BTC can ever die, to much people involved, it's to late =)

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November 16, 2018, 09:04:10 AM
 #703

Its look like that this prediction is going to happen as the market just really crashes that we are long awaiting for the bullish run to come but the result is opposite that the Bitcoin is now at below $6,000 as the new support level. Hopefully that it will not go down further as most of the crypto users are in doubt now.

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November 16, 2018, 10:03:11 AM
 #704

The final and total analysis is the one that counts from the count Elliot of OP, and he has indicated several times around 1000 $ as the final target of Bitcoin in 2020.

"Final and total" heh.. I hope you understand he didn't get this $1000 target figure from the Elliot Waves analysis.

He actually got that number by combining two sources - (a) the fact that a "typical" bubble of an ordinary asset loses about 90-95% of value (5% of 20K is 1K); and (b) he believes Bitcoin is an ordinary overvalued asset, which just got through its first serious bubble condition. If we take those two presumptions, we get the 1K target (though by some reason OP liked to talk about $500-800 target too, but that doesn't like to fit with any theory, and is probably just reflects his preferences).

However, there are many people here (including me) who do not share his point (b). That's the main reason of arguments here (your friends call it "hating" and somehow you feel a need to defend OP from the nasty "haters").

As I don't share his point (b), to me $1000 figure seems to be too low... if Bitcoin reaches $1000 again, it could be a point of no return and it could happen only in case of a extremely serious problem comparing to catastrophe (serious bug in the code, Satoshi moving his funds, quantum computing suddenly making all current cryptography useless, or similar). Based on previous bubbles, if nothing like that happens, this bear market has to end between 3K and 4K, spending the most time moving around $4K, with few short dumps to around 3K. By the way, 3.1K is where the current weekly MA200 resides, and breaking below that is highly undesirable for anyone who believes in Bitcoin's future and understands markets a little bit.

There is an interesting article published just before this last dump: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-is-charting-this-death-cross-for-first-time-since-2014
This guy predicted the dump just before it actually happened. Look at parallels with 2014. If we apply them, we are now moving into the "despair" state of 2015, where we got two bottoms with about 50% of price of the state where the cross happened - so around 3K more or less.

Sorry I have no graphs to make my assumptions look more "scientific" and convincing to people who like graphs... You can draw them in you head, as I do Smiley.
No beautiful Fibonacci numbers too  Sad Wink I believe they are useful to short term traders mainly, who need exact numbers to day-trade... I prefer long-term - its far less stressful, and allows to stay cool and calm.


1) OP author has never said he hopes and wants Bitcoin at $ 1000!

2) Author OP has always expressed his opinion and vision, right or wrong that it is!
There are hundreds of users in here saying Eth at $ 10,000 for the end of 2018, or Xrp for $ 10, etc. what's the problem? I express and say what I want, and if you do not like it, do not read and go further.
You do not share his analysis, for your studies and your reasons, and that's okay because there is still respect in your comments; what bothers me is the irony and free attacks brought by other users.
To constructively criticize is good for everyone; attacking and mocking is stupid and hurts, everyone!
P.S. thanks for the article

3) I do not defend OP but I defend the right to analysis and study that he carries on, with passion and dedication, with changes and improvements.
He does not have a channel where we are paying for his signals and services; if we do not like it, we can ignore it and move on to something else!
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November 17, 2018, 10:13:05 PM
 #705

I express and say what I want, and if you do not like it, do not read and go further.

Sure you can express and say what you want, regardless of whether I like it or not. Its even better if I don't like it, as this could mean I have something to learn. I really value opinions different from mine, when they are expressed by intelligent person. You seem to be one, and that's the reason I read and sometimes even reply to your posts. In this particular case, I felt a need to reply because one of your statements was sounding a bit... strange. Sorry if it sounded a bit toxic to you.

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November 18, 2018, 05:42:12 PM
 #706

... , but what I have always stressed is that OP author did it in January, first in the bitcointalk forum, and when everyone expected and called Bitcoin to new Ath.

This is not truth. And I stressed it several times. There are lots of threads on this forum even calling ATH on time and normally predicting the bear market to happen same as it happened in previous bitcoin cycles.   I do not even know how would any reasonable guy who was here from 2013 think otherwise. To believe Bitcoin will just stay at $20k? LOL


Oh there is also a youtube channel with good on time predictions you might check if you really hate to read this forum.  https://www.youtube.com/user/TheKoziTwo/videos    He predict rarely but always on time and correct.

Funny song in there from 2013: Bitcoin is a Bubble
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

"bitcoins a fad and its on fire
higher than a fantasy
like a singularity

bulls living in world full of denial
i'm feeling a catastrophy
they're thinking it can fly away

oohhh ohhhh ohhh i keep on riding my bear
though i'm falling a tear

oohhh ohhhh ohhh it's gonna crash to the ground
and i'm not backing down

Bitcoin is a bubble, Bitcoin is a bubble
its only a bubble, Bitcoin is a bubble"

That is not funny. That is song of this forum a proudhun anthem.  And is totally true, just like all the rest.

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[/]
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November 18, 2018, 11:45:11 PM
 #707

Crashes in crypto currencies is just normal and we always seen that whenever bitcoin crashes. Bitcon's existence in the cryptoworld signifies its importance so as bitcoin falls down to 5,000$ mark several times this year, the market looks so bad during that time too.

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November 24, 2018, 11:13:01 PM
 #708

#under4K
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November 25, 2018, 12:10:41 AM
Last edit: November 25, 2018, 12:21:32 AM by drays
 #709

#under4K

Yeah. What a ride! Finally a time to slowly start rebuying a bit. "Slowly" - means gradually on the way down, in smaller quantities than you can afford.
It may fall a tad deeper for now, but a rebounce is due, before further grinding down. Even if no rebounce, the price is ok to get in anyway.

Definitely not an investment advice, just thinking for myself...

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November 25, 2018, 12:22:29 AM
 #710

Grinding is what make people lose over time especially on leverage.

Inverted grinding (piramiding gains - not averaging your loses) - is what makes your trades get better and more profitable.

So averaging and buying more on "dips" is mostly a fail strategy, if your "plan" is only to buy on such "dips".
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November 25, 2018, 12:54:47 AM
Last edit: November 25, 2018, 01:46:07 AM by drays
 #711

Grinding is what make people lose over time especially on leverage.

Inverted grinding (piramiding gains - not averaging your loses) - is what makes your trades get better and more profitable.

So averaging and buying more on "dips" is mostly a fail strategy, if your "plan" is only to buy on such "dips".

You seemingly assume we still have a lot of room to go down? I don't think so. There is too much doom and gloom around. There is a common panic and capitulation - everyone assumes BTC is going to at least 3K and then to even 1.5K or even sub 1K. Even masterluc has capitulated, not even speaking about other "guru" traders the public follows. That is a good bullish indicator to me. Finally!
And the plan is to start accumulating more BTC now, however not by going all in at once, but by carefully using this new opportunities - the deeper it falls, the better the opportunity, so you want to leave yourself some fiat to buy on lower levels too.

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November 25, 2018, 12:56:39 AM
 #712

 


Upcoming approx support zones BITFINEX:

    $3270, $2650, $2150, $1650

A break below $1200 would rule out a possibility of a wave-x bull market.
 
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November 25, 2018, 01:47:06 AM
 #713




Upcoming approx support zones BITFINEX:

    $3270, $2650, $2150, $1650

A break below $1200 would rule out a possibility of a wave-x bull market.
 

interesting... you point that one wave can last one and a half year while the other one lasts 1 month?
Not using log scale either makes your TA looks really bad.
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November 25, 2018, 02:36:38 AM
 #714

interesting... you point that one wave can last one and a half year while the other one lasts 1 month?
Not using log scale either makes your TA looks really bad.

Price/structure precedes time priority under Elliott Wave analysis. Exponential waves usually occur quicker in time; whilst corrective waves tend to elapse longer in time often dwindling sideways.

The Fibonacci relationships between the waves remain unchanged whether using either logarithmic or linear charts.
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November 25, 2018, 05:11:20 AM
 #715




Upcoming approx support zones BITFINEX:

    $3270, $2650, $2150, $1650

A break below $1200 would rule out a possibility of a wave-x bull market.
 

interesting... you point that one wave can last one and a half year while the other one lasts 1 month?
Not using log scale either makes your TA looks really bad.


You would see how dumb this idea looks in log form.
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November 26, 2018, 07:43:48 PM
 #716

interesting... you point that one wave can last one and a half year while the other one lasts 1 month?
Not using log scale either makes your TA looks really bad.

Price/structure precedes time priority under Elliott Wave analysis. Exponential waves usually occur quicker in time; whilst corrective waves tend to elapse longer in time often dwindling sideways.

The Fibonacci relationships between the waves remain unchanged whether using either logarithmic or linear charts.


Last November 4th you had left open two possible scenarios



Now, after the last and decisive market movements, I see that you have chosen for the corrective hypothesis?
Do not you think that it can be a false correction to blow up many open positions, and from now on will simply make a series of ups and downs for a few months, exhausting even more investors, holders and mining farms?

Do not you think that a market and a coin that falls for three consecutive years can completely die, and never recover again?

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November 26, 2018, 09:56:44 PM
 #717

Last November 4th you had left open two possible scenarios

Now, after the last and decisive market movements, I see that you have chosen for the corrective hypothesis?
Do not you think that it can be a false correction to blow up many open positions, and from now on will simply make a series of ups and downs for a few months, exhausting even more investors, holders and mining farms?

Do not you think that a market and a coin that falls for three consecutive years can completely die, and never recover again?

The following are approx key support zones upcoming on BITFINEX:

    $3270, $2650, $2150, $1650

It is possible the Bitcoin market finds support at any of the aforementioned levels, and then can commence a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market within an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bear market, termed as a wave-x under Elliott Wave nomenclature. However, a break below $1200 would rule out a possibility of a wave-x bull market, and prices would likely then dwindle to sub $1000.

For now, its suffice to say, the low of 2018 will likely occur towards the end of 2018, and there is still 1 month left to end 2018.
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December 21, 2018, 01:04:21 PM
 #718


https://i.imgur.com/qRdVbzV.png

Upcoming approx support zones BITFINEX:

    $3270, $2650, $2150, $1650

A break below $1200 would rule out a possibility of a wave-x bull market.
 

Hi 123, nice to talk to you again, I have been following the news in this post and I would like to ask you two or three things.

Regarding the usual Christmas rally, do you think this up price is part of it? It seems despite the time in the graph (which you always say is orientative) it would march with the pike near Jan 2019, but in Dec 2018. Which would then be followed by a new down.

How this analysis have in mind the possibility of the authorization of the first fund based on crypto on february? acording to different analyst this would develop a real base for Bitcoin to rise.

Last but not least, could this be the Bull market before another down? I would like to see an update on this analysis.

As usual a pleasure to talk to you.

Regards,
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December 22, 2018, 02:55:12 AM
Last edit: December 22, 2018, 03:24:33 AM by xxxx123abcxxxx
Merited by antantti (1), muf18 (1)
 #719

Hi 123, nice to talk to you again, I have been following the news in this post and I would like to ask you two or three things.

Regarding the usual Christmas rally, do you think this up price is part of it? It seems despite the time in the graph (which you always say is orientative) it would march with the pike near Jan 2019, but in Dec 2018. Which would then be followed by a new down.

How this analysis have in mind the possibility of the authorization of the first fund based on crypto on february? acording to different analyst this would develop a real base for Bitcoin to rise.

Last but not least, could this be the Bull market before another down? I would like to see an update on this analysis.

As usual a pleasure to talk to you.

Regards,

$3270 was a noted support zone on BITFINEX. The market reached a low of $3215 on 15-DEC and has staged a +30% rally into CBOE futures expiry on 19-DEC.

Presently would expect a pullback to around $3650, and then quite possibly another rally towards $4500 around CME futures expiry on 28-DEC.

Eventually expecting the bear market resume to sub $3000 starting in early 2019.

$2650 BITFINEX is the first major support below $3000. This support zone may coincide with news of an ETF fund launch in 1Q2019 to produce a bounce, which may commence the elusive wave-x bull market.

A failure of the $2650 support zone would likely suggest the bear market resumes towards $1000 by 4Q2019 as originally presented.

At this stage, the market would have to exceed $5890 BITFINEX to confirm a new bull market. Exceeding $5178 BITFINEX would provide an early signal to consider a potential change of trend. Until then, any rallies are considered as temporary dead-cat bounces.

BITFINEX Major Support Zones:
$3270, $2650, $2150, $1650, $950

BITFINEX Major Resistance Zones:
$4270, $5178, $5890

Personal interest in cryptocurrency is waning as the market deflates, hence winding-down the cryptocurrency analysis since the objective of the thread as been generally attained. This is a 2018 thread, and suppose it can now be closed. Thank you for the discussion and shared thoughts, Merry Christmas!






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April 04, 2019, 09:48:17 PM
 #720

ah. my fav thread seem to be closed.   Embarrassed

can i PM you in BCT 4rum ?
thanks so much
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