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Author Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)  (Read 10831 times)
muf18
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April 17, 2018, 08:30:03 AM

EOS pump then ADA pumps WITH volume.
Could be brewing a huge cup and handle which might take everything to ATH in Sept
I wouldn't be shorting this market to be honest after what I saw these few days. If anything, I would try to add some lengths if BTC falls back to around $7K with decreasing volume. The risk reward in the medium term is good. Even if BTC falls to $3K, length at $7K suffers 50% loss but next bull run assume BTC 6 times (being very conservative here) of $3K bottom will still make 150%

Losing 50% in any term is terrible investment. And you dont know what we can have in future.
Everybody think "moon". But 20K was on large volume, so large, that Bitcoin would have to have a real deal usage in market, not in speculation trading only. And 99% now is speculative trading, so pump and dumpers ready to take profit, when they see their pump failed. It's like pooling in cash, by people and waiting until, it starts to collapse, then fast taking out cash.
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April 17, 2018, 08:38:28 AM

EOS pump then ADA pumps WITH volume.
Could be brewing a huge cup and handle which might take everything to ATH in Sept
I wouldn't be shorting this market to be honest after what I saw these few days. If anything, I would try to add some lengths if BTC falls back to around $7K with decreasing volume. The risk reward in the medium term is good. Even if BTC falls to $3K, length at $7K suffers 50% loss but next bull run assume BTC 6 times (being very conservative here) of $3K bottom will still make 150%

Losing 50% in any term is terrible investment. And you dont know what we can have in future.
Everybody think "moon". But 20K was on large volume, so large, that Bitcoin would have to have a real deal usage in market, not in speculation trading only. And 99% now is speculative trading, so pump and dumpers ready to take profit, when they see their pump failed. It's like pooling in cash, by people and waiting until, it starts to collapse, then fast taking out cash.


True.
I guess I'm more HODLer kind of mentality. Call me stupid hahaha!

There is one scenario though where bitcoin doesn't need real usage to have price boost --- institutional money.

The reason institutional money comes in could purely because they're trying to optimise their portfolio (consider the basic efficient frontier model for example)
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April 17, 2018, 05:50:56 PM

I agree with the prediction of an "April Fools' rally", but I think it will go a bit higher than xxxx123abcxxxx's prediction.

The reason is that it seems that confidence is building up again after the second time Bitcoin touched the $6400-6500 area in few days, and bears weren't able to drive the price lower (not even near the former low of ~$6000). However, to confirm this short-term rally the price must go over $7500 to confirm a short-term double bottom.

In my opinion, this "April Fool's rally" can go as high as $9000-10000, but not (significantly) higher. The resistance at that point will be too harsh, as there is still few new capital entering the market, and the temptation to sell will be high.

Also, I'm not at all convinced that the price will see the regions around $1000 again. For now, we're pretty closely following the 2014 pattern (only in a slightly accelerated pattern) and that would mean that the lowest point of this bear market should be in the region of 15% of the current ATH (in this case, around $2500-3000; at $3000 there is a support point because of an earlier high).

Really, I am not the supporter of the ideas connected with the crash of the crypto market this year. Now I see this period is something like a stagnation and little growth

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April 19, 2018, 08:37:18 AM

Since the April Fool痴 low of 6245 (Bitfinex), the Bitcoin market has rallied 30% thus far.

The upward price spike on 12-APR saw a 20% gain in a single day. The rapid move caught the bulls by surprise with the majority not participating as indicated by the BTCUSDLONGS index, which declined on the day instead of surging upwards to correlate with price action. It appears the price spike has been exacerbated by a short-covering rally squeezing out bearish positions as indicated by the BTCUSDSHORTS index which collapsed 40%.

Quite an April Fool痴 which has fooled both the bulls & bears. As of yet, there still doesn稚 appear to be any news correlation as a driver for the price spike which is quite unusual.

It was initially assumed that the rally from the 01-APR low was retracing the decline from 21-MAR, and the magnitude of such a wave limited to circa 20%. However, the magnitude of the rally has thus far exceeded the mid-March rally which saw price appreciate 27%. Consequently, it appears the current rally is actually retracing the entire decline from 05-MAR to 01-APR; and subsequently, a degree adjustment to the Elliott Wave model is required.

From the 6245 low set on 01-APR, the Bitcoin market rallied 17% and then gave up 13% of those gains before trading sideways in a choppy 10-day affair. On 12-APR, the market broke out of that range and has thus far rallied 25%. A net gain of approx 30% so far. The meandering price action prior to the breakout price spike has been identified as a Symmetrical Triangle pattern where consolidating and tightening price would give way to a breakout.

The following are Fibonacci retracements of the 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline of where the current rally may terminate:

Lower Range
@8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
@9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
@9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
@9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

At this stage, the rally is expected to complete within the aforementioned Lower Range targets, where the average is 8752. Currently, taking out 8064 would indicate weakening upside momentum.

Speculative guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time:



So as I thought 9K can be in the making. This bear market is confusing as hell.
And even wiping you a little.
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April 20, 2018, 04:34:47 AM

Low-risk short trade:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8300
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8459
RISK: 1.9%
REWARD: 49%
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April 20, 2018, 09:00:22 AM

Low-risk short trade:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8300
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8459
RISK: 1.9%
REWARD: 49%

Why you think it's low risk? Because of tight stop?
They pushed quite a lot now. Almost my perception have changed, althought I know that's a game behind the scenes.
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April 20, 2018, 09:31:50 AM

Low-risk short trade:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8300
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8459
RISK: 1.9%
REWARD: 49%

Why you think it's low risk? Because of tight stop?
They pushed quite a lot now. Almost my perception have changed, althought I know that's a game behind the scenes.

Yes, low-risk because of tight stop.
At current prices, stop is less than $150 away.
So good risk/reward if the April 15th high isn't exceeded.
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April 20, 2018, 03:43:20 PM

Low-risk short trade:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8300
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8459
RISK: 1.9%
REWARD: 49%

Why you think it's low risk? Because of tight stop?
They pushed quite a lot now. Almost my perception have changed, althought I know that's a game behind the scenes.

Yes, low-risk because of tight stop.
At current prices, stop is less than $150 away.
So good risk/reward if the April 15th high isn't exceeded.

Well SL again :/
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April 20, 2018, 04:06:50 PM

April 20th (i.e. 420) An international counterculture holiday, where advocates gather protesting in civil disobedience to celebrate and consume recreational drugs. Counterculture currencies are also seeing fractals and getting 蘇igh.

Since the 01-APR low of 6245 (Bitfinex), the Bitcoin market has now rallied 33% thus far.

The following are Fibonacci retracements of the 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline of where the current trip may peak:

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

With rising price creating negative divergences against a declining overbought RSI on the 4-hr timeframe, and already reaching and meandering around the initial target of 8440; the rally is looking baked and is expected to complete within the aforementioned Lower Range targets, where the average is 8752.

Currently, taking out 8262 (Bitfinex) would indicate weakening upside momentum.

When the high wears off, a sober market is expected to resume towards 4257 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market

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April 20, 2018, 04:14:10 PM

April 20th (i.e. 420) An international counterculture holiday, where advocates gather protesting in civil disobedience to celebrate and consume recreational drugs. Counterculture currencies are also seeing fractals and getting 蘇igh.

Since the 01-APR low of 6245 (Bitfinex), the Bitcoin market has now rallied 33% thus far.

The following are Fibonacci retracements of the 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline of where the current trip may peak:

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

With rising price creating negative divergences against a declining overbought RSI on the 4-hr timeframe, and already reaching and meandering around the initial target of 8440; the rally is looking baked and is expected to complete within the aforementioned Lower Range targets, where the average is 8752.

Currently, taking out 8262 (Bitfinex) would indicate weakening upside momentum.

When the high wears off, a sober market is expected to resume towards 4257 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market



So market is now on 'high' literally? Cheesy

It's so damn concering those hard pumps. It's not normal trading, some entities pump it hard really hard.
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April 21, 2018, 01:59:08 AM

OP, I guess it is you who are 'high' if you think Bitcoin is still the currency of counterculture.

You seem to live in a kind of fake reality - a one artificially constructed by current financial magnates who usurped the financial power and are actively misleading people so they believe the current system is sustainable and its the only system they have to see during their lives...

Its time to understand Bitcoin is not counterculture currency anymore, but is the currency of the coming generation and hence is the currency of the future world. The ones who don't catch it, and stay in the limits of the fake reality, may be swept away by the wind of change.

BTW, the real counterculture currencies (including different kinds of pot/dope/cannabis coins), didn't see any significant pump today. So your assessment is wrong in all aspects.


... this space is not for rent ...
muf18
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April 21, 2018, 07:14:51 AM

OP, I guess you are 'on high' if you think Bitcoin is still the currency of counterculture.

You seem to live in a kind of fake reality - a one artificially constructed by current financial magnates who usurped the financial power and are actively misleading people so they believe the current system is sustainable and its the only system they have to see during their lifes...

Its time to understand Bitcoin is not counterculture currency anymore, but is the currency of the coming generation and hence is the currency of the future world. The ones who don't catch it, and stay in the limits of the fake reality, will be swept off.

BTW, the real counterculture currencies (including different kinds of pot/dope/cannabis coins), didn't see any significant pump today. So your assessment is wrong in all aspects.



So you seems you would be happy that chinese miners would dictate new world order.

That's ... Not gonna happen Cheesy.
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April 22, 2018, 12:34:51 AM

Bitcoin market has now reached the second Lower Range target, marking a 41% rally from the 01-APR low:

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

Currently, taking out 8616 (Bitfinex) would indicate weakening upside momentum.


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April 22, 2018, 02:32:38 PM

Bitcoin market has now reached the second Lower Range target, marking a 41% rally from the 01-APR low:

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

Currently, taking out 8616 (Bitfinex) would indicate weakening upside momentum.




9K is under, but it's in pretty much range, strange, that it's going up, without really supports, supporting on MAs only, and when it's going under some "miracles buys" appears, not strange at all.
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April 22, 2018, 06:04:45 PM

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

these retrace targets seem....presumptuous. you should have multiple EW counts prepared for multiple outcomes, but it seems like you simply assume that the move from march 4th must be part of a primary (bearish) wave A. and then from that assumption, you derive your retrace targets.

i hate to say, but this is how people misuse EW. they get married to one count and then keep trying to redraw it, rather than being open to multiple counts and admitting when they are wrong.

the entire december-april move may be a primary wave. certainly looks like it could be a complete WXY. in that case, you're gonna get bitten for being so perma bearish. your highest retrace target is under $10k! if this follows 2014, then a correction all the way to the $16000s is possible, even if you're eventual targets turn out correct.

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April 23, 2018, 03:20:53 AM
Merited by figmentofmyass (1)

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

these retrace targets seem....presumptuous. you should have multiple EW counts prepared for multiple outcomes, but it seems like you simply assume that the move from march 4th must be part of a primary (bearish) wave A. and then from that assumption, you derive your retrace targets.

i hate to say, but this is how people misuse EW. they get married to one count and then keep trying to redraw it, rather than being open to multiple counts and admitting when they are wrong.

the entire december-april move may be a primary wave. certainly looks like it could be a complete WXY. in that case, you're gonna get bitten for being so perma bearish. your highest retrace target is under $10k! if this follows 2014, then a correction all the way to the $16000s is possible, even if you're eventual targets turn out correct.

Since the Bitcoin bear market began on 17-DEC-2017, there appear to be 6 waves thus far (3 up, 3 down).

A corrective sequence consists of 3,7,11,15...(so on) waves. Therefore, barring any wave subdivisions, at least 1 more wave down is expected to complete a sequence of 7 waves.

Whatever the number of waves in the corrective sequence, the overall structure is a 3 wave a-b-c pattern.

With the aforementioned Elliott Wave guidelines, and given the structure of the Bitcoin bear market thus far, there are 3 alternative scenarios of how the waves may develop (Bitfinex quoted prices):

1. First Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 9200 but remains below 10000 before resuming the bear market.

2. Second Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 10000 but remains below 11700 before resuming the bear market.

3. Third Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 11700 but remains below 17252 before resuming the bear market.







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April 23, 2018, 11:28:06 PM

With the aforementioned Elliott Wave guidelines, and given the structure of the Bitcoin bear market thus far, there are 3 alternative scenarios of how the waves may develop (Bitfinex quoted prices):

1. First Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 9200 but remains below 10000 before resuming the bear market.

2. Second Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 10000 but remains below 11700 before resuming the bear market.

3. Third Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 11700 but remains below 17252 before resuming the bear market.

fair enough---at least you understand the possibilities. it seemed like you kept re-shorting and stopping out based on your one preferred count. when that happens to me, it usually means "time to step back and re-assess."

do you have any bull counts, where the december-march move is all/part of an intermediate correction?

EW aside, those last three weekly candles wicking into the $6000s would trouble me as a bear. that was a major rejection drawn out over three weeks. a large bounce was warranted. the question is still, at which degree? try counting the december-march move as a complete WXYXZ and it sure looks like we should expect a sizeable bull correction! at these proportions, it could last months too!

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April 24, 2018, 06:07:25 PM

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

these retrace targets seem....presumptuous. you should have multiple EW counts prepared for multiple outcomes, but it seems like you simply assume that the move from march 4th must be part of a primary (bearish) wave A. and then from that assumption, you derive your retrace targets.

i hate to say, but this is how people misuse EW. they get married to one count and then keep trying to redraw it, rather than being open to multiple counts and admitting when they are wrong.

the entire december-april move may be a primary wave. certainly looks like it could be a complete WXY. in that case, you're gonna get bitten for being so perma bearish. your highest retrace target is under $10k! if this follows 2014, then a correction all the way to the $16000s is possible, even if you're eventual targets turn out correct.

Since the Bitcoin bear market began on 17-DEC-2017, there appear to be 6 waves thus far (3 up, 3 down).

A corrective sequence consists of 3,7,11,15...(so on) waves. Therefore, barring any wave subdivisions, at least 1 more wave down is expected to complete a sequence of 7 waves.

Whatever the number of waves in the corrective sequence, the overall structure is a 3 wave a-b-c pattern.

With the aforementioned Elliott Wave guidelines, and given the structure of the Bitcoin bear market thus far, there are 3 alternative scenarios of how the waves may develop (Bitfinex quoted prices):

1. First Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 9200 but remains below 10000 before resuming the bear market.

2. Second Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 10000 but remains below 11700 before resuming the bear market.

3. Third Chart
The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 11700 but remains below 17252 before resuming the bear market.






Only second and third option is now in play.
I would be keen onto second, but third is also possible, with this kind of major pumping we have seen now (public isn't buying it - all social trends, with keyword of: Bitcoin, blockchain, cryptocurrency, are down to may/october levels of 2017), so what we are seeing now is probably hedge funds major pump, and thus it would completely agree with 5 min huge candles making up moves + 200-500USD.

They probably want to get out of some positions, thus this major pumping.
We have achieved 70% of volume from January, but there don't seem to be major people's buying it.

But I can be wrong. That's my opinion which I'm entitled to.
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April 24, 2018, 08:59:15 PM

The three scenarios are still in play:

1. The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 9200 but remains below 10000 before resuming the bear market.
2. The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 10000 but remains below 11700 before resuming the bear market.
3. The bounce from the 01-APR-2018 low exceeds 11700 but remains below 17252 before resuming the bear market.

In regards to probability, would currently weight the aforementioned scenarios as follows:

1. 45%
2. 45%
3. 10%

The first of the Upper Range resistance levels is now approaching, lets see if the significance of the 61.8% golden ratio is going to be meaningful...

Lower Range
  @8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
  @9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
 @9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
 @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
 @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Currently, taking out 9187 (Bitfinex) would indicate weakening upside momentum.

Suspect the Bitcoin market is undergoing a large Symmetrical Triangle formation since the 06-FEB-2018 low which may elapse until JUN-2018 before the bear market resumes...


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April 24, 2018, 09:19:22 PM

Clever drug puns.....counter-culture pessimist....BTC bear

My analysis suggest that OP is a baby boomer gold investor?  Wink

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