2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[g-uid]

After rallying 55% from the 6000 (Bitfinex) lows in just 4 days, the market has been drifting sideways for 4 days.

The sideways wander could either suggest that the first leg of the rally is complete, and a retracement is currently underway. Or, the market is consolidating in preparation to breakout and resume the move higher.

Taking out 8950 (Coinbase) and 9000 (Bitfinex) to the upside would confirm the rally is resuming.

However for now, weakening price action appears to be favoring a retracement. A typical retracement ought to be around 50% which is at 7482 (Coinbase) and 7538 (Bitfinex).
At 7599 (Bitfinex), represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire Bitcoin market.

Given the aforementioned criteria, the following short position has been ordered:

BTC/USD (COINBASE)
OPEN: 8600
CLOSE: 7482
STOP: 8950
RISK: 4%
REWARD: 13%

Afterwards, the expectation would be for the market to resume the Primary degree b-wave bounce, which may retrace up to 38.2% of the Primary a-wave decline which began on 06-JAN-2018.
The following Fibonacci levels may serve as target areas of where the rally may conclude towards the psychological 10000 level, Bitfinex prices:

1. 9350: approx previous line of support/resistance.
2. 9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement level of entire Bitcoin market.
3. 10298: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018

Goes without saying, but thanks for sharing

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[Barbarian]

Honestly, I have enough of these topics when someone is claiming that the cryptocurrency is gonna crash.
And every time when something like our current decline is happening they are totally happy and think that this is something they predicted.
Ha, fat chance - no one could predict anything linked to the future price of cryptocurrency, we can only speculate and base our knowledge on extrapolation!
Don't waste your time with theories who have no scientific background and instead are constructed to be FUD spreaders.

This is right, even if someone is able to guess correctly, that was it, a guess, it is irrelevant unless you can provide accurate predictions again and again and we know no one can do that since the markets are incredibly complex and no one has devised a way to predict them accurately.

[muf18]

Honestly, I have enough of these topics when someone is claiming that the cryptocurrency is gonna crash.
And every time when something like our current decline is happening they are totally happy and think that this is something they predicted.
Ha, fat chance - no one could predict anything linked to the future price of cryptocurrency, we can only speculate and base our knowledge on extrapolation!
Don't waste your time with theories who have no scientific background and instead are constructed to be FUD spreaders.

This is right, even if someone is able to guess correctly, that was it, a guess, it is irrelevant unless you can provide accurate predictions again and again and we know no one can do that since the markets are incredibly complex and no one has devised a way to predict them accurately.

So you actually say that's it's better just to blindly put money, instead of actual doing of TA, and getting some more help from fundamentals (which are mainly only some drive from TA based perspective, as well as from rela perspective also) they adds fuel only.

TA can't be 100% accurate. But if you are >=70% accurate, that's not just a random guess or accident.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Market breakout to the upside, the rally resumes.

The following levels may serve as target areas of where the rally may conclude towards the psychological 10000 level, Bitfinex prices:

1. 9350: approx previous line of support/resistance.
2. 9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement level of entire Bitcoin market.
3. 10298: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018

Price action has already reached the first resistance level. The average of the other two Fibonacci levels is 10122.

Previous short position closed at a 4% loss. Long position opened with the following parameters:

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 9000
CLOSE: 10122
STOP: 8313
RISK: 7.6%
REWARD: 12.5%

[muf18]

Do you trade on bitfinex?
Is it ok? I heard not so good opinions + tether case...

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Do you trade on bitfinex?
Is it ok? I heard not so good opinions + tether case...

Trade futures and spread bet through various brokers, but base decisions on Bitfinex/Coinbase prices.

[muf18]

Ok, so position long has closed.
Did you open short, or are you waiting for more signals to come?
These 2 days move is apparently quite bullish, at least for now.

And we are very close to 10.300 mark.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

Looking at previous supports/resistances, we will likely, apart from 10300, encounter serious resistance at 10700.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Ok, so position long has closed.
Did you open short, or are you waiting for more signals to come?
These 2 days move is apparently quite bullish, at least for now.

And we are very close to 10.300 mark.

Correct, the following long position has now closed with a 12.5% profit (technically a net 8.5% gain given the 4% loss of the previous short position):

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 9000
CLOSE: 10122
STOP: 8313
RISK: 7.6%
REWARD: 12.5%

Currently awaiting further technical signals before calling the top.

Let's see how the market behaves at the 10298 (Bitfinex) area, which represents 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018.

At the moment, taking out 9850 (Bitfinex) would be the first signal to suggest a weakening market.

Interesting to note just prior to the New Year marked the top in crypto; and now the Chinese New Year is approaching.

 

[BitcoinIntern]

Do you trade on bitfinex?
Is it ok? I heard not so good opinions + tether case...

Trade futures and spread bet through various brokers, but base decisions on Bitfinex/Coinbase prices.

Who do you recommend for futures trading? Bitmex or are there others? Thanks.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Recommencing?

From the 6000 (Bitfinex) lows set on 06-FEB-2018, Bitcoin has rallied +70% taking out the psychological $10,000 level.

The 10-day bounce has been fairly broad-based across the majority of the top 10 marketcap cryptocurrencies which have been partaking in the rally.

Barring any wave extensions and subdivisions, there now appears enough waves to suggest the rally is complete. Price action seems to have found resistance just shy of 10298, which represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018.

Preliminary weakening price action suggests the rally is complete; and next leg of the bear market, the second crash wave, may be commencing.

In regards to the psychological state of mind: Taking out 8000 would reaffirm the ‘fear’ phase. Taking out the 6000 lows would represent the ‘capitulation’ stage —where mass media hysterics peak and exchange outages occur. The 78.6% retracement of the entire market at 4257 begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs.

From a political and socionomic standpoint, the following events (termed as “FUD” by millennials) may begin to unravel during the second leg of the bear market:

—Further laws/bans/restrictions upon cryptocurrencies invoked by countries/governments, calling for tighter regulation and fraud prevention: positive rulings, but perceived as negatives.
—Prolonged exchange outages preventing deposits/withdrawals and management of positions.
—Exposure and collapse of further Ponzi schemes.
—Majority of Altcoins currently under $2,000,000,000 market capitalization becoming extinct.
—Mergers & acquisitions of crypto companies in the endeavour to survive.
—Individual bankruptcies and suicides.

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes)

Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.

Given the aforementioned criteria, 2 long-term short positions have been ordered with exact stops, but varying target limits:
—One with a target profit at 4257 which represents 78.6% retracement of the entire market; and,
—One with no target, i.e. an open-ended short position to ride the bear market.

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 9850
CLOSE: 4257
STOP: 10271
RISK: 4.3%
REWARD: 57%

If 10271 is taken out to the upside, it would suggest further wave subdivisions, and the rally is extending. The next upside resistance is around 10926 where the first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-10926).

Esoteric footnote: The first leg of the cryptocurrency bear market began on 17-DEC-2017, during a New Moon and leading up to the New Year. Should the second leg of the cryptocurrency bear market be commencing as of 16-FEB-2018, it would do so under a New Moon leading up to the Chinese New Bear.

Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure, not time:

[calem]

Oh I like you.....

[calem]

Smart man is smart people. Don't hate.

[drays]

Huh..

Apart of the rest of statements (which are quite interesting and insightful, though I believe are based on the incorrect assumption), this one left me puzzled:

—Majority of Altcoins currently under $200 becoming extinct.

So you again make this inconsiderate statement (I wont go into details as you don't seem to be interested), but this time its completely non-understandable. "under $200" what? Under $200 per coin? Regardless of marketcap and number of coins in existence!?

How the price per coin would affect viability of a project? I cannot see any sense in that statement. Is this a typo and you actually meant "under $200K in marketcap" or even something different? Please explain.

[rusla99]

What's the next position?

[exstasie]

The Elliott Wave counts look pretty wonky. C waves are impulsive; what are these endless ABCs? I'm also skeptical of the declaring top just because we reached the .382. And frankly, we didn't even get that far. Both Bitstamp and Bitfinex retraced about 30%. While a zig zag with such a small B wave is possible, why would you consider it likely? I pointed out the possibility last week, but I'd wait for some confirmation, especially now that we're forming a doji on the daily chart. No impulsive downside detected.

What's the next position?

The charts were posted today.....what do you expect?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Huh..

Apart of the rest of statements (which are quite interesting and insightful, though I believe are based on the incorrect assumption), this one left me puzzled:

—Majority of Altcoins currently under $200 becoming extinct.

So you again make this inconsiderate statement (I wont go into details as you don't seem to be interested), but this time its completely non-understandable. "under $200" what? Under $200 per coin? Regardless of marketcap and number of coins in existence!?

How the price per coin would affect viability of a project? I cannot see any sense in that statement. Is this a typo and you actually meant "under $200K in marketcap" or even something different? Please explain.

CORRECTION: $2,000,000,000 market capitalization

[muf18]

So 10.926 next resistance, which is quite close now.

[d5000]

I mostly agree with the general situation the OP is describing - we're inside a temporary bounce in a bear market - although I have other "target prices" (mainly because I don't take into account only TA but also factors like adoption, technological cryptocurrency evolution and mass psychology).

I expect that the current upwards price movement is strong enough to test the superior line of the mid-term bearish trend channel that begun at $20000. Shorter-term channels have been relatively important in the last downmove. The current impulse wave may even be strong enough for a false breakout up to ~13-14K, similar to what ocurred in early to mid-2014.

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes)

Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.

In past Bitcoin bubbles, bear markets (I define those phases as "bear markets" when Bitcoin lost, in a single downmove, more than 50% of its value) were much shorter:

- 2011: 6 months (June-November)
- 2013: 3-4 months (April-July; you could even say "days" if you take into account the short dip to $50 in April)
- 2013-15: 14 months (December 2013-January 2015)

The reason is, in my opinion, the extreme high volatility - a result of three main factors:
- many unskilled investors that are vulnerable to FUD and FOMO
- the lack of a definitive "valuation metric" - look here for some thoughts on it (and read the linked article).
- the lack of real usage for payments; which makes the connection to real-world goods and services harder (a "problem" specific to currencies)

That's why I don't expect a 2 year bear market; I would predict a definitive low in late 2018 or early 2019, and thus a similar price evolution to the 2013-15 downtrend. I expect the definitive low to be between 1800 and 3000 (two points of the upmove both tested by uptrends and downtrends).

However, things can turn bullish at any time if the scalability problem is solved, for example, with a reliably working Lightning Network. I don't expect that to happen, however, until mid-2018 as a very optimistic estimation.

[exstasie]

My TA perspective is mostly classical. There should be significant horizontal resistance near the apex and breakdown level of the January consolidation, $11,250-$12,200. We are also approaching time targets for this rally. I'm hoping for a spike into that overhead resistance before the rally takes a breather. It lines up well with the .382 of the downtrend as well: