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Author Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)  (Read 11348 times)
Febo
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July 08, 2018, 02:30:16 PM
 #541

What should you do? You have opportunity of a lifetime now. This guy here predict bottom will happen only a year from now that means you have 2 whole years to buy Bitcoin cheap. You sort of cant miss it unless you are totally ignorant.  But his prediction is most pessimistic of all I read so far. Some even predict that bottom already happened and in that care you dont really have much time left for your opportunity of a lifetime. Because if bottom already happened last week, we will see slow growth starting already at the end of the year or the beginning of next year.

The analysis thus far suggests the cryptocurrency bear market is likely to conclude by late 2019 or early 2020.
The expected decline is approx +90% from the all-time $20,000 high set on 17th Dec 2017; i.e. approx $1000.
As of writing, July 2018, the decline is at approx +60% —so just over half-way through yet.

This is based on historical manias:

http://www.thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets


Bottom at Q3 2019 should bring first sights of recovery only in Q3 of 2020, so after halving what seems a bit strange. And Bitcoin back at $20000 only at the end of 2022. We all know that hype will start only after Bitcoin reach new ATH.



Did this Eliot guy found when will be bottom on this Bitcoin cycle yet?  Now we are not that far from it that a superior TA like this could not predict it at least approximately. Or am I wrong?
Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 by 3Q2019.

What do you do with this information? Did you short BTC in any place? Predicting something like this could make you a billionaire. And if Bitcoin fails bellow 3k will also kill a lot of business and people.


What should you do? You have opportunity of a lifetime now. This guy here predict bottom will happen only a year from now that means you have 2 whole years to buy Bitcoin cheap. You sort of cant miss it unless you are totally ignorant.  But his prediction is most pessimistic of all I read so far. Some even predict that bottom already happened and in that care you dont really have much time left for your opportunity of a lifetime. Because if bottom already happened last week, we will see slow growth starting already at the end of the year or the beginning of next year.

You certainly dont have any experience on financial markets, do you?
Cause what you are saying is some random opinion, you have no proof or analysis to support your thesis.

What thesis. I had not presented any so far here. This guy told us when he expect bottom and I posted also that some people already called bottom last week. I actually called it in some of my other posts but not here. So I dont really understand your point unless you mixed me and the OP and think we are same person.

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kronos123
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July 08, 2018, 03:51:49 PM
 #542

What should you do? You have opportunity of a lifetime now. This guy here predict bottom will happen only a year from now that means you have 2 whole years to buy Bitcoin cheap. You sort of cant miss it unless you are totally ignorant.  But his prediction is most pessimistic of all I read so far. Some even predict that bottom already happened and in that care you dont really have much time left for your opportunity of a lifetime. Because if bottom already happened last week, we will see slow growth starting already at the end of the year or the beginning of next year.

The analysis thus far suggests the cryptocurrency bear market is likely to conclude by late 2019 or early 2020.
The expected decline is approx +90% from the all-time $20,000 high set on 17th Dec 2017; i.e. approx $1000.
As of writing, July 2018, the decline is at approx +60% —so just over half-way through yet.

This is based on historical manias:

http://www.thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

The majority of cryptocurrencies currently hovering around $2 billion marketcap are likely to become delisted before hitting zero: https://deadcoins.com/

It is difficult to project whether or not Bitcoin survives the crash.

Commodities and currencies and assets deemed as a store of value, unfold in corrective ABC Elliott Waves in both bull and bear markets. Whereas assets such as stocks based on earnings unfold in 12345 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective ABC Elliott Waves in bear markets.

Bitcoin and the popular cryptocurrencies have unfolded in 12345 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective ABC Elliott Waves in bear markets. Hence, cryptocurrencies aren't by behavior working like currencies nor commodities; and so therefore in their current nature, shall never be adopted as mediums of exchange for goods/services or as a storage medium of value.

Quite possibly, a second generation of viable cryptocurrencies may emerge post 2020. Either way, the days of speculative parabolic price curves in the cryptocurrency markets is over, and any hopes of a return to $20,000 is foolish hodlr's fodder.





Detailed analysis and studied thoroughly, with dedication and passion; I follow you from the beginning of the thread but, as I said elsewhere, one must always be careful when declaring prices.
Suggesting medium to long-term transactions is good, but giving objectives and final prices almost always proves counterproductive for the author, and harmful and dangerous for those who follow him.

Fibonacci, Gann, Elliot provide indications and forecasts of price, but the markets almost never repeat exactly the same cycles, and above all they do not repeat with the same timing (indicated by you at the end of 2019 - beginning of 2020).

Who controls and directs the markets will hardly manage the prices that everyone declares and expects, as a bottom, and probably will not even respect the times as in the past.

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Diablomania
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July 08, 2018, 04:44:56 PM
 #543

Well we all knew that this was goign to happen, anyway i am more than possitive because i bought a bunch of bitcoins and other coins that were more than cheap before, that is the main reeason of why i am positive about the last  crash

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July 08, 2018, 09:31:34 PM
 #544


The expected decline is approx +90% from the all-time $20,000 high set on 17th Dec 2017; i.e. approx $1000.


Hmm... Seems like your math is not getting better over time... Lets hope your predictions are as 'good' as your math skills.

This 'analysis' is looking like being science-based (much numbers, so graphs, wow), but it is completely subjective, and carries clear traces of wishful thinking. Well, most people in these markets exhibit wishful thinking now - mostly bulls and hodlers (which WO thread is full of), of course, but bears and hatersskeptics too. I assume OP considers himself to be an objective non-emotional player, but he isn't. People tend to lie even to themselves. Some see Bitcoin as a treat to the system they like and got used to, they want to see that 'treat' eliminated - and in this specific case that internal wish reflects itself in crash predictions and all those pretty graphs drawn in this thread.

... this space is not for rent ...
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July 09, 2018, 12:40:09 PM
 #545


The expected decline is approx +90% from the all-time $20,000 high set on 17th Dec 2017; i.e. approx $1000.


Hmm... Seems like your math is not getting better over time... Lets hope your predictions are as 'good' as your math skills.

This 'analysis' is looking like being science-based (much numbers, so graphs, wow), but it is completely subjective, and carries clear traces of wishful thinking. Well, most people in these markets exhibit wishful thinking now - mostly bulls and hodlers (which WO thread is full of), of course, but bears and hatersskeptics too. I assume OP considers himself to be an objective non-emotional player, but he isn't. People tend to lie even to themselves. Some see Bitcoin as a treat to the system they like and got used to, they want to see that 'treat' eliminated - and in this specific case that internal wish reflects itself in crash predictions and all those pretty graphs drawn in this thread.

You seem to be emotionally-attached too. I dont know how emotionally attached is OP, but I consider myself subjective - everyone is subjective, but not emotionally attached and I don't lean on one or other side - observe and take my ideas, assumptions and technical analysis into account.
I'm not shorting BTC or longing it - for my margin trading is too risky to take part in it. So if I "trade" I can only buy it.

@Febo - I thought you were saying - "go and buy bitcoin now, or in near future", like those so called "prophets" or "experts guru", who are -30% up to -65% on their purchases.
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July 09, 2018, 07:44:16 PM
 #546

Hmm... Seems like your math is not getting better over time... Lets hope your predictions are as 'good' as your math skills.

This 'analysis' is looking like being science-based (much numbers, so graphs, wow), but it is completely subjective, and carries clear traces of wishful thinking. Well, most people in these markets exhibit wishful thinking now - mostly bulls and hodlers (which WO thread is full of), of course, but bears and hatersskeptics too. I assume OP considers himself to be an objective non-emotional player, but he isn't. People tend to lie even to themselves. Some see Bitcoin as a treat to the system they like and got used to, they want to see that 'treat' eliminated - and in this specific case that internal wish reflects itself in crash predictions and all those pretty graphs drawn in this thread.

Being short on Bitcoin implies no ownership; and hence by extension, rules out any emotional attachment including confidence, belief and trust —it is perhaps the most objective trade!
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July 09, 2018, 08:35:50 PM
 #547

You seem to be emotionally-attached too.
Yes, somewhat, I admit. I am not a professional trader, and for me BTC is not just another three-letter combination to make money on...

Hmm... Seems like your math is not getting better over time... Lets hope your predictions are as 'good' as your math skills.

This 'analysis' is looking like being science-based (much numbers, so graphs, wow), but it is completely subjective, and carries clear traces of wishful thinking. Well, most people in these markets exhibit wishful thinking now - mostly bulls and hodlers (which WO thread is full of), of course, but bears and hatersskeptics too. I assume OP considers himself to be an objective non-emotional player, but he isn't. People tend to lie even to themselves. Some see Bitcoin as a treat to the system they like and got used to, they want to see that 'treat' eliminated - and in this specific case that internal wish reflects itself in crash predictions and all those pretty graphs drawn in this thread.

Being short on Bitcoin implies no ownership; and hence by extension, rules out any emotional attachment including confidence, belief and trust —it is perhaps the most objective trade!

Well, yes, being short rules out confidence, belief and trust, but it creates 'emotional attachment with the negative sign' - including skepticism, disbelief and trust in the asset's failure Smiley
Basically you don't emotionally attach to Bitcoin, but you attach to things which it threatens to destroy change.

... this space is not for rent ...
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July 09, 2018, 09:09:42 PM
 #548

Hmm... Seems like your math is not getting better over time... Lets hope your predictions are as 'good' as your math skills.

This 'analysis' is looking like being science-based (much numbers, so graphs, wow), but it is completely subjective, and carries clear traces of wishful thinking. Well, most people in these markets exhibit wishful thinking now - mostly bulls and hodlers (which WO thread is full of), of course, but bears and hatersskeptics too. I assume OP considers himself to be an objective non-emotional player, but he isn't. People tend to lie even to themselves. Some see Bitcoin as a treat to the system they like and got used to, they want to see that 'treat' eliminated - and in this specific case that internal wish reflects itself in crash predictions and all those pretty graphs drawn in this thread.

Being short on Bitcoin implies no ownership; and hence by extension, rules out any emotional attachment including confidence, belief and trust —it is perhaps the most objective trade!

On the contrary, it is an emotional trade - a trade to prove cryptocurrency holders wrong. During the bull run, even the most staunch skeptics like Jamie Dimon said they wouldn't short Bitcoin. Shorting bitcoin is not a trade that a rational investor would do - it is way too risky.


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July 10, 2018, 03:58:14 PM
 #549

@Febo - I thought you were saying - "go and buy bitcoin now, or in near future", like those so called "prophets" or "experts guru", who are -30% up to -65% on their purchases.

I am saying that. This is the best chance of your lifetime. Next half year to a year. Right now everyone that is so so poor should get a triple job and  live only from bread and water and buy as much bitcoin and other good crypto as he can afford. Now is the time we should not miss and plenty of months to make it happen.

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July 23, 2018, 03:53:51 AM
 #550

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Redux
https://redd.it/913xx6

Since the all-time high set on 17-DEC-2017, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin bear market has now elapsed 7 months with a peak decline of 70% in value thus far.

The first leg of the crash from 17-DEC-2017 to 06-FEB-2018, saw a 70% decline where price collapsed from the all-time high of $19,891 to a low of $6,000 in just 51 days (BITFINEX).

Since the 06-FEB-2018 low, price has wandered sideways on diminishing volume and volatility, contracting into a triangle pattern. A triangle formation reflects a balance of forces creating a directionless resolve: an equilibrium and indecisive psychological state of mind between the bulls & bears, a period of consolidation as the market deliberates its next move.

Five waves are expected in a contracting triangle pattern, labelled as a-b-c-d-e waves. Under textbook Elliott Wave analysis, at least two of the five alternate waves are typically related to each other by the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio, and it appears wave-c and wave-e are the alternating candidates:



—wave-a: Rallied 95% from 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.

—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.

—wave-c: ‘April Fools Rally’: Rallied 55% from 01-APR to 05-MAY. In regards to length, it was a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-a and terminated just shy of the psychological $10,000 level.

—wave-d: ‘Sell In May And Go Away’: Declined 33% from 05-MAY to 24-JUN. In regards to length, wave-d equalled a Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-b.

—wave-e: The final leg of the triangle pattern, and the shortest, has been underway since 24-JUN. Should wave-e equal a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-c, it would do so at around $7,958 (BITFINEX) —and converging trendlines of the triangle suggest by mid to late JUL. It is common for this final wave-e of a triangle to either undershoot or overshoot the converging trendlines of the triangle. However, this wave-e must terminate below wave-c for the overall triangle to remain valid; i.e. below the MAY high of $9,990 (BITFINEX). Summary of targets to complete the triangle (BITFINEX):
Textbook:
    @7873: wave-e retraces a Fibonacci 50% of wave-d
    @7958: wave-e equals a Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-c    
Overshoot:
    @8372: wave-e retraces a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-d
    @8557: wave-e equals a Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-c
    @9084: wave-e retraces a Fibonacci 78.6% of wave-d

Once the triangle completes, the second leg, and most devastating leg, of the cryptocurrency bear market is expected to resume with a breakout in volume and volatility —the crash redux. Taking out $7,330 may commence the second leg of the bear market, at which point signals time to exit all cryptocurrencies.

The Elliott Wave principle pinpoints the start of the ‘mania’ phase at $5,400 (BITFINEX) on 12-NOV-2017. At this level in time, price withdrew to create wave-4 as part of a 1-2-3-4-5 series of advancing waves:



From $5,400 to $19,891 manifests the steep parabolic price curve of the fifth and final wave. Therefore, taking out $5400 begins ‘capitulation’ of the earliest of public speculators and loyal hodlrs —amidst a volatile and instable marketplace surged in volume driven by margin calls, where mass media hysterics begin to peak reaffirming the ‘fear’ phase. Hence the psychological $6,000 has been guarded for the last +5 months since it marks support of the psychological USD$100 billion Bitcoin marketcap.



Initial expectation for the second leg bear market is towards $4,257 (BITFINEX) which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market which begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs; where reality of the bubble bursting only just is grasped as the 'blow-off' phase gains momentum.

From a political and socionomic standpoint, the following events termed as “FUD” may begin to unravel during the second leg of the bear market:

  • Further laws/bans/restrictions upon cryptocurrencies invoked by countries/governments, calling for tighter regulation and fraud prevention: positive rulings, but perceived as negatives.
  • Prolonged exchange outages preventing deposits/withdrawals and management of positions; including hacking and exploitation of security flaws.
  • Exposure and collapse of further Ponzi schemes.
  • Majority of Altcoins currently around US$2,000,000,000 market capitalization becoming extinct. Manipulated alt/BTC pairs at highest risk of collapse; see deadcoins.com
  • Mergers & acquisitions of crypto companies, reduction of trading fees and margins/spreads, and launch of basket financial instruments (e.g. ETFs, index funds, etc), in the endeavour to revive and survive the market.
  • Individual bankruptcies and suicides.

Based on historical manias, when a speculative asset bubble bursts, an approx 90%-95% collapse unravels in a period of 2 years:

thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

Chronicles of historical manias suggest the cryptocurrency bear market is likely to conclude by late 2019 or early 2020, with Bitcoin priced between $500 to $1,000.

It is musing to project whether or not Bitcoin survives the crash.

Commodities and currencies, and assets deemed as a store of value, unfold in A-B-C Elliott Waves in both bull and bear markets. Whereas assets such as stocks based on earnings unfold in 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective A-B-C Elliott Waves in bear markets.

The wave characteristics of Bitcoin and the popular cryptocurrencies have unfolded in 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective A-B-C Elliott Waves in bear markets.

Given the nature of wave characteristics, this suggests the behaviour of cryptocurrencies cannot be considered as a currency nor a commodity; and so therefore in their current state, shall never be adopted as robust mediums of exchange for goods and services or as a storage medium of value.

Quite possibly, a second generation of viable cryptocurrencies may emerge in post 2020. Either way, the days of speculative parabolic price curves in the cryptocurrency markets is over, and any hopes of a return to the all-time highs is foolish hodlr's fodder.

Elliott Wave speculative models indicative of price and structure, not time; as follows:




 
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July 23, 2018, 06:58:21 PM
 #551

what about bankers' futures and ETFs progressively arriving, increasing their role to destroy the market spontaneity?
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July 23, 2018, 08:38:05 PM
 #552

Quite possibly, a second generation of viable cryptocurrencies may emerge in post 2020. Either way, the days of speculative parabolic price curves in the cryptocurrency markets is over, and any hopes of a return to the all-ti


LOL all you wrote could actually happen, but here you made huge mistake. After 5 bitcoin cycles they will suddenly end? LOL

Max Kaiser predicted $100k Bitcoin back in 2011. HE will see it in 2020-2021. That is a sure thing.  If as you speculate $1000 Bitcoins to $100000 Bitcoins are not a parabolic price rise then I dont know what you were taught at math.


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July 24, 2018, 10:43:26 AM
 #553

Does technical analysis really works or they are just designs from chart experts?
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August 07, 2018, 08:57:23 PM
 #554

deserve a bump
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August 08, 2018, 05:32:51 AM
 #555

Going to 6K very fast.  And for this time it will now stop at 5800 and go straithg to 5K and futher down.
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August 08, 2018, 10:42:03 PM
 #556

thank you for this very interesting work,
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August 09, 2018, 10:32:29 PM
 #557

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August 10, 2018, 07:06:16 PM
 #558

So after your previous prediction graph completely fails to conforms to reality, you post the next one, now adjusted for the past events. Well, way to go... I see only the main point - the predicted and so long-awaited crash and final capitulation of crypto market (so desired by you), remains constant on all those graphs.

... this space is not for rent ...
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August 10, 2018, 07:12:35 PM
 #559

So after your previous prediction graph completely fails to conforms to reality, you post the next one, now adjusted for the past events. Only the main point - the predicted long-awaited crash and final capitulation of crypto market (so desired by you), remains constant on all those graphs. Well, way to go...

Graphs created to represent what he wants to happen most likely.

The reality is most of these people drawing squiggly lines on graphs predicting the future don’t know what they’re on about. Bitcoin doesn’t conform to regular stocks/shares etc so what is all this rubbish based on?

Guesswork is the answer.

Never, ever trade on info in threads like this.




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August 10, 2018, 07:14:00 PM
 #560

he got his wave e right, numbers arent 100% precise but you guys also read what you want to read lol you kinda have the same bias you criticise him for

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