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Author Topic: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again  (Read 36921 times)
TiagoTiago
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August 04, 2011, 04:54:41 AM
 #101

Nah, being high valued is not a problem as long as it maintains that value; the more people believe it should be worth at least 100 bucks per BTC the faster we'll get there and the easier it will  be to keep it from going down again. We just gotta believe it.

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OmegaNemesis28
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August 04, 2011, 05:01:26 AM
 #102

How is $20 looking less and less likely again?
So BTCs drop quite a bit over the past 2-3 days - there isn't any reason why it wouldnt go back up soon. The "crash" (if you can easily call it that) is a result of a few things, at least what I gather, including the MyBitcoins scam and the fact that BTCs hit $20 so fast at first for example. The MyBitcoins scam was an immediate and one time occurrence that'll balance out very shortly.

To say that it won't go back to $20 for a long time is a bit of a long stretch.
To say that it'll NEVER go back to $20 again is an even longer stretch.

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August 04, 2011, 11:16:53 AM
 #103

There is still no easy way for me to transfer bitcoins to my computer illiterate (and fictional) uncle Joe. Until then, not enough people care about collecting bitcoins. Maybe bitcoins can be this holiday season's big gift idea? ^^

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August 04, 2011, 12:19:36 PM
 #104

$20 is looking less and less likely.  Pretty soon I will be preparing the crow for you guys to eat.
Why don't you accept one of the public bet offers then? Have I missed it? You don't have to of course, but it would be more fun. Wink

Slightly off-topic but, I propose making asymmetrical bets (futures contract?) in these cases, so that both sides get the currency they like in the end, and optionally no criteria need to be specified. For instance, I have a bet with a friend saying that "in five years, you will give me 100 bitcoins and I will give you the current equivalent in your preferred currency". There is no "if" clause. So, if the bet is made now against USD, I'd pledge to give him USD 1000 in five years, and him 100 BTC to me. If BTC is worth more than it is now in US dollars, I profit, otherwise he does.

BTC Economist's challenge has an "if" clause though, so even easier. I can take the bet with BTC against USD any time. Better to define "never" first... Smiley
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August 04, 2011, 02:25:50 PM
 #105

$20 is looking less and less likely.  Pretty soon I will be preparing the crow for you guys to eat.
Why don't you accept one of the public bet offers then? Have I missed it? You don't have to of course, but it would be more fun. Wink

Because he does not have neither money to bet nor real belief in whatever he's saying Smiley

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August 04, 2011, 03:25:00 PM
 #106

How is $20 looking less and less likely again?
So BTCs drop quite a bit over the past 2-3 days - there isn't any reason why it wouldnt go back up soon. The "crash" (if you can easily call it that) is a result of a few things, at least what I gather, including the MyBitcoins scam and the fact that BTCs hit $20 so fast at first for example. The MyBitcoins scam was an immediate and one time occurrence that'll balance out very shortly.

To say that it won't go back to $20 for a long time is a bit of a long stretch.
To say that it'll NEVER go back to $20 again is an even longer stretch.

This is what early adopters would like to believe, but the crash is due to people realizing bitcoins have no purpose and hence no value unless you are a drug user who prefers online transactions.  If the market were more liquid, I could see bitcoins having some value to investors, but judging by the recent lack of depth on the buyside, this is clearly not the case.

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August 04, 2011, 04:06:56 PM
 #107

but the crash is due to people realizing bitcoins have no purpose and hence no value unless you are a drug user who prefers online transactions.  If the market were more liquid, I could see bitcoins having some value to investors, but judging by the recent lack of depth on the buyside, this is clearly not the case.
PURE LIES

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

THE LIST OF ACCEPTING BUSINESSES IS EXPLODING...

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August 04, 2011, 04:30:01 PM
 #108

but the crash is due to people realizing bitcoins have no purpose and hence no value unless you are a drug user who prefers online transactions.  If the market were more liquid, I could see bitcoins having some value to investors, but judging by the recent lack of depth on the buyside, this is clearly not the case.
PURE LIES

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

THE LIST OF ACCEPTING BUSINESSES IS EXPLODING...

wow, massive list! last time I checked it out there were tops 20 sites listed
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August 04, 2011, 04:57:45 PM
 #109

"BTC Crash Preparation Kit" lol. Cheesy

Maybe it could be ported to the EURO and used to prop up Italy and Spain?

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August 04, 2011, 05:09:45 PM
 #110

How is $20 looking less and less likely again?
So BTCs drop quite a bit over the past 2-3 days - there isn't any reason why it wouldnt go back up soon. The "crash" (if you can easily call it that) is a result of a few things, at least what I gather, including the MyBitcoins scam and the fact that BTCs hit $20 so fast at first for example. The MyBitcoins scam was an immediate and one time occurrence that'll balance out very shortly.

To say that it won't go back to $20 for a long time is a bit of a long stretch.
To say that it'll NEVER go back to $20 again is an even longer stretch.

This is what early adopters would like to believe, but the crash is due to people realizing bitcoins have no purpose and hence no value unless you are a drug user who prefers online transactions.  If the market were more liquid, I could see bitcoins having some value to investors, but judging by the recent lack of depth on the buyside, this is clearly not the case.

Isn't this analysis ignoring one big thing - It's hard/time consuming/expensive to go from USD -> BTC right now, or really any non-digital currency.

Look at the timing of past surges - There is money trying to get in, and just not getting past the funding hurdle?

Add to that the series of amateur hour mistakes from various bitcoin organizations and thefts, this seems like a pretty extreme negative scenario... until the funding part eases up, at which point the market gets an infusion of hot cash and we're back to the races.

Are you mindful of those factors?  It seems like your analysis is purely based on the charting, which is an incomplete picture by any standards.

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Babylon
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August 04, 2011, 06:54:03 PM
 #111

There is still no easy way for me to transfer bitcoins to my computer illiterate (and fictional) uncle Joe. Until then, not enough people care about collecting bitcoins. Maybe bitcoins can be this holiday season's big gift idea? ^^

Installing the bitcoin client isn't difficult,  yes, you'd have to walk Joe through it, but it is still a lot easier than paying him with a credit card.

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August 04, 2011, 06:59:18 PM
 #112

Bitcoin is something new.  Uncle Joe understands credit cards, but he doesn't understand the difference between good money or bad money.

That lack of understanding means Bitcoin is a hard sell, although with the performance of the markets it's getting easier and easier to explain it to him.


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Babylon
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August 04, 2011, 07:12:07 PM
 #113

Bitcoin is something new.  Uncle Joe understands credit cards, but he doesn't understand the difference between good money or bad money.

That lack of understanding means Bitcoin is a hard sell, although with the performance of the markets it's getting easier and easier to explain it to him.



Joe may understand credit cards, you still can't pay him with one.  Paying him with bitcoin is about the same level of difficulty as paying him with paypal, but without the transaction fees.

enmaku
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August 04, 2011, 07:13:26 PM
 #114

Bitcoin is something new.  Uncle Joe understands credit cards, but he doesn't understand the difference between good money or bad money.

That lack of understanding means Bitcoin is a hard sell, although with the performance of the markets it's getting easier and easier to explain it to him.



Joe may understand credit cards, you still can't pay him with one.  Paying him with bitcoin is about the same level of difficulty as paying him with paypal, but without the transaction fees.

You can pay me with credit cards - I have a card swipe and a smartphone... Then again I'm doubting I'm a good representative for "average" Wink

Babylon
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August 04, 2011, 07:14:26 PM
 #115

Bitcoin is something new.  Uncle Joe understands credit cards, but he doesn't understand the difference between good money or bad money.

That lack of understanding means Bitcoin is a hard sell, although with the performance of the markets it's getting easier and easier to explain it to him.



Joe may understand credit cards, you still can't pay him with one.  Paying him with bitcoin is about the same level of difficulty as paying him with paypal, but without the transaction fees.

You can pay me with credit cards - I have a card swipe and a smartphone... Then again I'm doubting I'm a good representative for "average" Wink

Yeah, you are definitely not computer illiterate uncle joe. 

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August 04, 2011, 07:25:54 PM
 #116

Bitcoin is something new.  Uncle Joe understands credit cards, but he doesn't understand the difference between good money or bad money.

That lack of understanding means Bitcoin is a hard sell, although with the performance of the markets it's getting easier and easier to explain it to him.



Joe may understand credit cards, you still can't pay him with one.  Paying him with bitcoin is about the same level of difficulty as paying him with paypal, but without the transaction fees.

You can pay me with credit cards - I have a card swipe and a smartphone... Then again I'm doubting I'm a good representative for "average" Wink

Yeah, you are definitely not computer illiterate uncle joe. 

This is a big societal issue that I honestly cannot believe we tolerate. Today computer literacy is every bit as important as... well... literacy!

People who can't read are ashamed of it, they hide the fact, they try to learn or fix the problem, make it better. There are programs with volunteers and donations to help people who can't read learn and parents recognize the importance of their children being able to read lest they be forced to choose between ditch-digging and the circus. Why do we tolerate computer illiteracy?

More than tolerate, some seem to think there is legitimately nothing wrong with it! I've heard countless folks from the generations before me say things like "oh I don't know anything about this computer stuff, I'll just leave that to you young folks"... NO! You need these skills to survive today! How do you function in any modern office environment without email, word processing, spreadsheets, databases etc. It should not be acceptable for your mother, father, friends, aunts, uncles, employees or employers to be computer illiterate, any more than you'd consider it acceptable for them to be unable to read, dress themselves, tie their own shoes, bathe and groom themselves... These are basic skills now, they're part of the toolkit for everyday life and I refuse to accept it as normal or reasonable for anyone to lack them.

Uncle Joe needs to go take a class at the community college, or better yet someone could start a massive non-profit and try to get computer literacy the sort of attention that reading literacy currently appreciates.

I understand that bitcoin is NOT simple mainstream stuff and I expect to have to explain it to the "Uncle Joes" of the world, but I shouldn't have to first explain how to use their browser, mouse, etc.

Full disclosure: I've spent far too many hours of my life working tech support, so this might just be bitter techie syndrome...

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August 04, 2011, 07:35:14 PM
 #117

I work at a place that educates people on how to use their computers.  However computers are still very new, relatively speaking.   They did not gain widespread use until the 80's and the internet wasn't until the 90's, there are plenty of people who lived most of their lives without interacting with computers.

We do need to educate people in computer use, but it is unreasonably to expect everyone to be computer literate at this time.

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August 04, 2011, 07:40:41 PM
 #118

I work at a place that educates people on how to use their computers.  However computers are still very new, relatively speaking.   They did not gain widespread use until the 80's and the internet wasn't until the 90's, there are plenty of people who lived most of their lives without interacting with computers.

We do need to educate people in computer use, but it is unreasonably to expect everyone to be computer literate at this time.

DNA testing also came about in the 80s, blossomed to full capability in the 90s and is used extensively today. Should we expect the average person to not understand that either? The world changes, sometimes fast sometimes slow, it's important for people of all ages to keep up with at least the most dramatic and important of those changes, or at least put in the effort. The correct answer for the computer illiterate is not "I don't know and I'm OK with that" - the correct answer is "I don't know, so maybe I should learn."

To make sure I'm 100% clear: I don't expect everyone to be a computer whiz, I'm questioning the societal attitude that allows them to simply not try.

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August 05, 2011, 10:21:19 PM
 #119

$9.55

Where's TraderTimm?

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August 05, 2011, 10:35:10 PM
 #120

Never is a long time.
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