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Author Topic: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again  (Read 36953 times)
cypherdoc
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July 09, 2011, 07:08:22 PM
 #41

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price of 1 BTC will exceed $20 in one year.  
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tymothy
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July 09, 2011, 07:13:10 PM
 #42

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year. 

Oooo smackdown. Who's stepping up to the plate?
TraderTimm
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July 09, 2011, 07:15:03 PM
 #43

BTC 'Economist' - We'd better get this out of the way - since you'll be proven wrong in the coming weeks.



Enjoy your trophy of forum fail.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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July 09, 2011, 07:16:00 PM
 #44

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year. 

denominated in BTC, so any bears taking the bet would be losing twice so to speak.  Grin
xlcus
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July 09, 2011, 07:17:47 PM
 #45

What people are actually doing is selling, not buying.
Surely people must be buying, otherwise who are the sellers selling to?

Faircoin, the coin of the fair economy
Check https://www.fair.coop The Earth cooperative to create a new economic system, based in global fairness
CurbsideProphet
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July 09, 2011, 07:21:45 PM
 #46

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year. 

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way.  They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow.  If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet.  If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

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cypherdoc
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July 09, 2011, 07:24:48 PM
 #47

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.  

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way.  They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow.  If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet.  If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

no its not.  the price could be $19.99 in one year.

actually they win if its $20.  i said "exceed".
Jaime Frontero
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July 09, 2011, 07:28:09 PM
 #48

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year. 

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way.  They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow.  If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet.  If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

in a BTC to BTC bet, both parties would stand to win or lose exactly the same amount in BTC.  my BTC is worth the same as his BTC right now.

i thought of your objection.  it adds flavor...
CurbsideProphet
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July 09, 2011, 07:28:31 PM
 #49

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.  

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way.  They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow.  If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet.  If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

no its not.  the price could be $19.99 in one year.

actually they win if its $20.  i said "exceed".

Yeah there's a point where they win, as long as the price stays between whatever they buy at and $20.  But the odds are still heavily in your favor.  

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CurbsideProphet
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July 09, 2011, 07:33:16 PM
 #50

in a BTC to BTC bet, both parties would stand to win or lose exactly the same amount in BTC.  my BTC is worth the same as his BTC right now.

i thought of your objection.  it adds flavor...

In Bitcoins, yes.  But a bear would believe Bitcoins would lose value otherwise why take the bet?  As an example, lets say in a year BTC's are worth $5, so technically the bear wins.  This would be the transaction:

Bear buys 100BTC today at $1,400 (approx.)
Bear wins 100 BTC one year from now.
Bear takes his 200 BTCs from the escrow and cashes out at $1,000.

So even though he won the bet, he lost $400, not to mention the time value over the last year.  Only a moron would take that bet.

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wolftaur
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July 09, 2011, 07:36:58 PM
 #51

So even though he won the bet, he lost $400, not to mention the time value over the last year.  Only a moron would take that bet.

Since when does the internet have a shortage of morons?

"MOOOOOOOM! SOME MYTHICAL WOLFBEAST GUY IS MAKING FUN OF ME ON THE INTERNET!!!!"
cypherdoc
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July 09, 2011, 07:38:56 PM
 #52

i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price will exceed $20 in one year.  

Assuming a bear would not have any Bitcoins, they would lose either way.  They would have to buy Bitcoins now, ~$1,400 at current prices give or take, then put it in escrow.  If they "win" then their coins are worthless (or at least worth a lot less) and they lose the $1400 paid for this stupid bet.  If they lose, they're out $1400 plus whatever appreciation bitcoin sees in a year.

You'd have to do a straight USD bet to make it fair, which is kind of ironic considering the wager.

no its not.  the price could be $19.99 in one year.

actually they win if its $20.  i said "exceed".

Yeah there's a point where they win, as long as the price stays between whatever they buy at and $20.  But the odds are still heavily in your favor.  

i disagree.  the odds are in the bears favor b/c given all the info we have today based on price action, the price one year from now should be exactly what it is now, in the 14's.

in order for Jamie and i to win our bets, the price has to appreciate over 6/14x100 percent for  us to win.  this is irrespective of whether he owns btc now or not.
Jaime Frontero
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July 09, 2011, 07:41:42 PM
 #53

in a BTC to BTC bet, both parties would stand to win or lose exactly the same amount in BTC.  my BTC is worth the same as his BTC right now.

i thought of your objection.  it adds flavor...

In Bitcoins, yes.  But a bear would believe Bitcoins would lose value otherwise why take the bet?  As an example, lets say in a year BTC's are worth $5, so technically the bear wins.  This would be the transaction:

Bear buys 100BTC today at $1,400 (approx.)
Bear wins 100 BTC one year from now.
Bear takes his 200 BTCs from the escrow and cashes out at $1,000.

So even though he won the bet, he lost $400, not to mention the time value over the last year.  Only a moron would take that bet.

except for this:  in a real bet of this kind, both parties are adequately secure in their beliefs that the idea of losing isn't worth considering.

i am certainly so.

so no.

and where does your 100 BTC come from?  my original bet was 50.   Roll Eyes

EDIT:  and $5 is just silly, methinks...
CurbsideProphet
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July 09, 2011, 07:47:36 PM
 #54

except for this:  in a real bet of this kind, both parties are adequately secure in their beliefs that the idea of losing isn't worth considering.

It's not about being secure in whether you'll win or not.  It's the fact that even if you DO win, you can STILL LOSE.  See my example.

Quote
and where does your 100 BTC come from?  my original bet was 50.   Roll Eyes

Cypherdoc.  Who I quoted.  Not you.  Not that the amount of BTC's is relevant anyway.

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Serge
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July 09, 2011, 07:54:30 PM
 #55

so make a bet if bear looses in a year he will pay a bull 100 btc  and if bull looses he will pay a bear 100 usd Smiley
cypherdoc
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July 09, 2011, 07:54:57 PM
 #56

except for this:  in a real bet of this kind, both parties are adequately secure in their beliefs that the idea of losing isn't worth considering.

It's not about being secure in whether you'll win or not.  It's the fact that even if you DO win, you can STILL LOSE.  See my example.

Quote
and where does your 100 BTC come from?  my original bet was 50.   Roll Eyes

Cypherdoc.  Who I quoted.  Not you.  Not that the amount of BTC's is relevant anyway.

whether the bears own btc or not given the way this bet is constructed is irrelevant.  since none of us really knows which way the relative price of btc to USD is going to go, whichever currency you bet with is irrelevant.

as i said above, given we're betting on market price, all relevant information about btc to USD is already priced into the market and its reasonable to expect what we know today that the price one year from now will be exactly the same.

something special (unknown info) in the market would have to happen for it to appreciate 6/14 x 100 to $20 and that places the odds in favor of the bear.
Jaime Frontero
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July 09, 2011, 07:56:54 PM
 #57

except for this:  in a real bet of this kind, both parties are adequately secure in their beliefs that the idea of losing isn't worth considering.

It's not about being secure in whether you'll win or not.  It's the fact that even if you DO win, you can STILL LOSE.  See my example.

Quote
and where does your 100 BTC come from?  my original bet was 50.   Roll Eyes

Cypherdoc.  Who I quoted.  Not you.  Not that the amount of BTC's is relevant anyway.

ummm...  i looked at your post #51, and you were quoting me.

however, i suppose you have a point.

i would allow the OP to escrow a sum of USD equal to BTC at $20.00000001 USD (the point at which i win and collect), so his escrow account shows no loss over six months in the event he wins.  the escrow holder can convert, if needed, to pay me.  my BTC won't need to be converted to USD, since it's a BTC bet and i pay at the value then.
python
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July 10, 2011, 12:10:59 PM
 #58

$20 Cry
Litt
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July 10, 2011, 03:48:53 PM
 #59

If you liquidated your position in Bitcoin, you might as well liquidate your presence on this forum and move on with your life.

+1

Get the fu** out please because we don't need you here. And you don't need to be here obviously.
Jack of Diamonds
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July 10, 2011, 04:32:08 PM
 #60

Criticize bitcoin: troll

Speculate in the wrong way: troll

Opinion against the status quo? You bet that's a troll

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes you guys. If you really think it's a troll DON'T FUCKING POST and let it fall off the page.

Agree 100%.. It seems most people posting on the BTC forums are new to the internet.
Not everyone who disagrees with your opinion, or posts something that slightly irritates you, is a "troll".

Not everyone with short hair is a fascist nazi. Not everyone with a fur cap is a 'commie'.

That is all.

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