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Author Topic: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again  (Read 36981 times)
Cluster2k
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September 27, 2011, 06:00:23 AM
 #201

Back above $5 now.  Woohoo!  Good times are back again.  Time to sell off all those recently purchased cheap bitcoins.  Hopefully the price goes down again.  Rinse, repeat, profit.

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Minsc
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September 27, 2011, 06:02:27 AM
 #202

The key is knowing when it's at its maximum.  Too many people sell early.

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September 27, 2011, 06:29:16 AM
 #203

Back above $5 now.  Woohoo!  Good times are back again.  Time to sell off all those recently purchased cheap bitcoins.  Hopefully the price goes down again.  Rinse, repeat, profit.

It's been staying above and tracing the 365 day SMA for the last few weeks. I'm not certain it's a support level, but it does seem like something:

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September 27, 2011, 01:11:05 PM
 #204

Dammit are we just going to stay here at $4.8-4.9 forever?
I see that someone just put up a massive 7k ask wall that is probably fake.

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September 27, 2011, 02:10:23 PM
 #205

Dammit are we just going to stay here at $4.8-4.9 forever?
I see that someone just put up a massive 7k ask wall that is probably fake.

It isn't fake if somebody buys through it before its owner can remove it.
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September 27, 2011, 02:16:31 PM
 #206

Dammit are we just going to stay here at $4.8-4.9 forever?
I see that someone just put up a massive 7k ask wall that is probably fake.

If you're lucky.  Otherwise we'll have a repeat of we had last month.  Stagnates for a month, then drops another 20-30%.  Not sure it'll happen until Thanksgiving though, longs were only brutally punished over long weekends in the past.

Remember, we mine 210,000 (or ONE MILLION DOLLARS /evil) worth of coins every month, even at $5.  Whether or not they are sold people feel that much richer on paper, and the market cap grows.  Unless bulls step up and start coughing up a LOT of fresh new money each month we're all just trading for an ever shrinking amount of dollars per coin.
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September 27, 2011, 02:35:04 PM
 #207

It's been staying above and tracing the 365 day SMA for the last few weeks. I'm not certain it's a support level, but it does seem like something

It looks like a line you drew. Does that line just change every time the market changes? And if yes, what's the point?

If you're lucky.  Otherwise we'll have a repeat of we had last month.  Stagnates for a month, then drops another 20-30%. 

At least 30% of $5 isn't as bad as 30% of $15. Well, it is for investors, but doesn't make the price drop look as dramatic.

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September 27, 2011, 03:34:07 PM
 #208

It looks like a line you drew. Does that line just change every time the market changes? And if yes, what's the point?

It's a moving average. One year SMA (black) and three weeks (violet). We can bookmark this and track it for the next three weeks:


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September 27, 2011, 05:24:44 PM
 #209

Remember, we mine 210,000 (or ONE MILLION DOLLARS /evil) worth of coins every month, even at $5.  Whether or not they are sold people feel that much richer on paper, and the market cap grows.  Unless bulls step up and start coughing up a LOT of fresh new money each month we're all just trading for an ever shrinking amount of dollars per coin.

Also, if you look at Bitcoin volume on Mt. Gox in currency, not Bitcoins, it's going down. That's striking, especially since there's so much 'bot trading moving the same money back and forth.  (In this era of high-frequency trading in the real world, trading volume means far less than it used to.)
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September 28, 2011, 12:22:37 AM
 #210

The number of dollars traded has gone down, which is what one expects when prices in dollars goes down. Fewer dollars chasing bitcoins means... supply and demand... lower prices. Even so, trade volume in dollars is higher today than in May when USD/BTC were equal. The number of bitcoins traded has gone up less dramatically, perhaps to be sold for fewer dollars.

$2 million USD / 380 000 BTC = $5.26/BTC. Imagine!

USD:

BTC:


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September 28, 2011, 05:46:33 AM
 #211

It's been staying above and tracing the 365 day SMA for the last few weeks. I'm not certain it's a support level, but it does seem like something

It looks like a line you drew. Does that line just change every time the market changes? And if yes, what's the point?


What netrin said.  Also, there's an issue with the 365 day SMA line on bitcoincharts.com only going back to around the 16th of August, so that's why it doesn't go all the way to the left of the chart.
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September 28, 2011, 05:55:41 AM
 #212

This is why I have liquidated my position in Bitcoins.  There is very little upside going forward.  No forward moves of late have any traction whatsoever and demand continues to lag.  Way too little upside for such a risky proposition so my advice is to move into dollars.  Only a significant change in the economy could alter this forecast.

Even if he's a troll he does have a point. Nice graphs there netrin!

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September 28, 2011, 12:46:24 PM
 #213

At least 30% of $5 isn't as bad as 30% of $15. Well, it is for investors, but doesn't make the price drop look as dramatic.

Someone's not using log-scale charts....
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September 28, 2011, 12:56:36 PM
 #214

Even if he's a troll he does have a point. Nice graphs there netrin!
  Can you give an example of where netrin has been trolling?
netrin
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September 28, 2011, 01:17:10 PM
 #215

The weekly gives the wrong impression before the week is out... Here's a daily since May's $5/btc including the 365 and 21 SMA. The last tick is expected to be light before midnight.

These charts don't tell me much about the future. The volumes match what one would expect given the price level ($volume / btc volume = $/btc price). The year trend line is interesting in that we've triple-bottomed and represents a powerful threshold. But your guess is as good as mine whether it will hold or bounce to new heights.

USD:

BTC:


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September 28, 2011, 02:14:58 PM
 #216

But your guess is as good as mine whether it will hold or bounce to new heights.

...or go significantly lower.
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September 28, 2011, 02:15:16 PM
 #217

At least 30% of $5 isn't as bad as 30% of $15. Well, it is for investors, but doesn't make the price drop look as dramatic.

Someone's not using log-scale charts....

I don't use charts period. I'm of the technical analysis charts are BS school of thought. Those things are great for looking at history, but apparently suck for any predictions, since every time the price changes unpredictably, everyone just moves their projection lines, and in that case you may as well assume that it will just keep changing unpredictably.

Also, I meant that just from basic common person looking at it perspective, a Bitcoin dropping from $15 to $10, losing $5, looks much worse than a Bitcoin dropping from $5 to $3.33, losing only $1.6. To a layman, anyway (BTC losing another $5 now would truly suck, too)

grod
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September 28, 2011, 03:38:51 PM
 #218



I don't use charts period. I'm of the technical analysis charts are BS school of thought. Those things are great for looking at history, but apparently suck for any predictions, since every time the price changes unpredictably, everyone just moves their projection lines, and in that case you may as well assume that it will just keep changing unpredictably.


Charts are great for helping determine whether a trend is still in progress.  That's their main use.  They are lagging indicators, but if used properly can be great ones for fine tuning your trades assuming a higher likelyhood of continued trading range, bull or bear trends.  So far charting has been 100% correct in confirming continuation of bitcoin trends (both bull and currently bear).

There are a few predictive indicators, but they don't go predictably enough to trade from all the time.
zby
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September 28, 2011, 04:15:17 PM
 #219


Charts are great for helping determine whether a trend is still in progress.  That's their main use.  They are lagging indicators, but if used properly can be great ones for fine tuning your trades assuming a higher likelyhood of continued trading range, bull or bear trends.  So far charting has been 100% correct in confirming continuation of bitcoin trends (both bull and currently bear).


Yeah - but what to do now when the two main trends are in conflict?
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September 28, 2011, 05:08:34 PM
 #220

Intuition... and Chodpaba's charts help confirm my intuition. Wink
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