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Author Topic: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again  (Read 36962 times)
netrin
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September 28, 2011, 09:37:58 PM
 #221

every time the price changes unpredictably, everyone just moves their projection lines, and in that case you may as well assume that it will just keep changing unpredictably.

That's utter nonsense. In June, based on charts, I predicted the price of bitcoin would be $200 by now, and... oh... I see what you mean.

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September 29, 2011, 02:47:13 AM
 #222

Now why would anyone even bother to raise that necrothread?
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September 29, 2011, 03:26:33 AM
 #223

By the way, does "never ever ever reaching $20" = "Bitcoin is effectively dead, but just doesn't know it yet?"

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September 29, 2011, 05:18:51 AM
 #224

By the way, does "never ever ever reaching $20" = "Bitcoin is effectively dead, but just doesn't know it yet?"

In the first Internet bubble, we ran Downside.com, which predicted, based on cash flow, which dot-coms would die, and when. We considered a company dead when the stock was down 90% from the peak. At that point, the stockholders are dead, even if the company lives on at some low level in zombie mode.

On that basis, Bitcoin is dead when it breaks through $3.
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September 29, 2011, 09:54:29 AM
 #225

By the way, does "never ever ever reaching $20" = "Bitcoin is effectively dead, but just doesn't know it yet?"

In the first Internet bubble, we ran Downside.com, which predicted, based on cash flow, which dot-coms would die, and when. We considered a company dead when the stock was down 90% from the peak. At that point, the stockholders are dead, even if the company lives on at some low level in zombie mode.

On that basis, Bitcoin is dead when it breaks through $3.

Using this analogy, if bitcoin is taking the place of the internet and miners are the dotcoms, then many miners will likely quit at the 10% level. The internet itself did not die after the dotcom bubble. Bitcoin is too good an idea, like the internet, to die.

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September 29, 2011, 11:43:43 AM
 #226

Using this analogy, if bitcoin is taking the place of the internet and miners are the dotcoms, then many miners will likely quit at the 10% level. The internet itself did not die after the dotcom bubble. Bitcoin is too good an idea, like the internet, to die.
Indeed. The dotcom bubble recovered eventually and the same will happen with Bitcoin. Due to Bitcoin's size we're simply looking at a much faster recovery in real time. It's not going to take years because Bitcoin time is faster, we're looking at months. I'm expecting a recovery soon, but within 6 months for sure.

Only thing that can really stop this is a blow to the fundamentals of Bitcoin, which are legality and technical reliability. As long as those are in good shape we will very, very likely see Bitcoin grow as both a store of value and a medium of exchange. And this will also mean that the price will eventually recover, big time.

On another note, I don't really think the last bubble was the biggest bubble yet. It was the biggest bubble so far, but it's only the first real hype wave. As long as the fundamentals stay strong we're bound to have a larger hype wave eventually. Bitcoin is still relatively unknown even though there has been coverage. It's not the same as "the dotcom bubble" because everyone knew about Internet companies at the time.

But the success of Bitcoin won't come by itself. It requires that people continue to build the infrastructure, and that it stays legal and the cryptography stays solid. It also requires that Bitcoiners start marketing it more heavily. If people don't know about it or how it can help them, it's not going to spread. This is why projects such as the Wall St. marketing project are actually really important.

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September 29, 2011, 01:59:10 PM
 #227

Only thing that can really stop this is a blow to the fundamentals of Bitcoin, which are legality and technical reliability. As long as those are in good shape we will very, very likely see Bitcoin grow as both a store of value and a medium of exchange. And this will also mean that the price will eventually recover, big time.

I know that, personally, I've been looking for a store of value that isn't precious metals. That ship has definitely sailed. I'm also a pseudo-Libertarian nerd, so of course Bitcoin is a natural fit for me.

Seeing more and more tools trickle out that bring Bitcoin to the layperson, I do not believe its niche-dom will last long. I give it two years before Bitcoin is a household name. Not to say everyone will use them, but they will all know what it is.
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September 29, 2011, 03:23:10 PM
 #228


Yeah - but what to do now when the two main trends are in conflict?

Easy, you switch your strategy from trading direction to trading volatility.   We have a MASSIVE pennant hanging on the multi-month bitcoin chart, if this were a real, optionable stock I'd be looking into long straddle positions.

Unfortunately I can't do that with bitcoin, so I'll be sitting on the sidelines with my popcorn.  I have my suspicions which way the direction is going to move but I want them confirmed before I do anything.

Since I'm mostly a trader it doesn't matter to me if I miss a $10 one day rise (or $2 one day drop), I'm in this for the price movement.  It would be nice if we went bull rather than bear (my trading is hedged by mining), but I for one am more than fine either way.

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September 30, 2011, 03:39:23 AM
 #229

By the way, does "never ever ever reaching $20" = "Bitcoin is effectively dead, but just doesn't know it yet?"

In the first Internet bubble, we ran Downside.com, which predicted, based on cash flow, which dot-coms would die, and when. We considered a company dead when the stock was down 90% from the peak. At that point, the stockholders are dead, even if the company lives on at some low level in zombie mode.

On that basis, Bitcoin is dead when it breaks through $3.

You mean like Bank of America?

Hey, Bank of America just instituted $5 debit card fees.

3) Profit.

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September 30, 2011, 10:27:22 AM
 #230

Indeed. The dotcom bubble recovered eventually and the same will happen with Bitcoin. Due to Bitcoin's size we're simply looking at a much faster recovery in real time. It's not going to take years because Bitcoin time is faster, we're looking at months. I'm expecting a recovery soon, but within 6 months for sure.

The Dotcom bubble recovered?  When did that happen?  I recall the vast majority of dotcoms either racing towards IPOs with dubious business plans and subsequently crashing, or not getting to the sacred IPO and burning up all their capital.

The dotcom bubble was replaced by another bubble created by ultra cheap debt: the housing bubble.  But the dotcom bubble itself burst and never recovered, save for a few online businesses that were successful even before the bubble.

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September 30, 2011, 02:49:33 PM
 #231

Indeed. The dotcom bubble recovered eventually and the same will happen with Bitcoin. Due to Bitcoin's size we're simply looking at a much faster recovery in real time. It's not going to take years because Bitcoin time is faster, we're looking at months. I'm expecting a recovery soon, but within 6 months for sure.

The Dotcom bubble recovered?  When did that happen?  I recall the vast majority of dotcoms either racing towards IPOs with dubious business plans and subsequently crashing, or not getting to the sacred IPO and burning up all their capital.

The dotcom bubble was replaced by another bubble created by ultra cheap debt: the housing bubble.  But the dotcom bubble itself burst and never recovered, save for a few online businesses that were successful even before the bubble.
If you are talking about the nasdaq, then yes it recovered, there has been a upward trend since 2002 which continues today. In the case of bitcoin however the timescales are different, people like to compress price developments over decades to the 2 years of bitcoin which cannot really be done, except for some fundamental truths in market movements.

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September 30, 2011, 03:06:30 PM
 #232

If you are talking about the nasdaq, then yes it recovered, there has been a upward trend since 2002 which continues today. In the case of bitcoin however the timescales are different, people like to compress price developments over decades to the 2 years of bitcoin which cannot really be done, except for some fundamental truths in market movements.

where is the recovery in the nasdaq? we have just seen a dead cat bounce before we see low triple digits in the next years.

But there is no correlation with bitcoin which is still in an uptrend. The nasdaq, however, is not in an uptrend any more.

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September 30, 2011, 05:48:30 PM
 #233

You mean like Bank of America?
You could have stuck a fork in BofA years ago, if it weren't for the bailouts they've received.  I doubt bitcoin will get such tender loving care.
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September 30, 2011, 05:50:26 PM
 #234

If you are talking about the nasdaq, then yes it recovered, there has been a upward trend since 2002 which continues today. In the case of bitcoin however the timescales are different, people like to compress price developments over decades to the 2 years of bitcoin which cannot really be done, except for some fundamental truths in market movements.

where is the recovery in the nasdaq? we have just seen a dead cat bounce before we see low triple digits in the next years.

But there is no correlation with bitcoin which is still in an uptrend. The nasdaq, however, is not in an uptrend any more.

http://imghaven.com/images/23856/ndx20110930.png



If that's a dead cat bounce it must be an undead cat  Grin
Why was the recent high above the high in 08? Doesn't make sense...

Also if you plot the chart from an earlier period to today and not start at the short period of hyperbolic movement the bubble suddenly looks way less impressive, on the logarithmic chart not even like a bubble at all.




But lets screw trend predictions, they aren't that useful in the current state of the world economy anyway.
As for bitcoin i would say we have a 50/50 chance that we seriously test the longterm trend now. If popularity continues to decline for the next month this is even likely. But not for long the next hype cycle will be coming next year...

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October 01, 2011, 03:01:32 AM
 #235

You mean like Bank of America?
You could have stuck a fork in BofA years ago, if it weren't for the bailouts they've received.  I doubt bitcoin will get such tender loving care.

Bitcoin is too big to fail!  Cheesy lol lol  Cheesy

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d.james
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October 01, 2011, 08:25:27 AM
 #236

now who's gonna bail us out?

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October 01, 2011, 09:41:46 AM
 #237

now who's gonna bail us out?

Flooz, Beanz and E-gold.

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October 01, 2011, 11:10:28 AM
 #238

You mean like Bank of America?
You could have stuck a fork in BofA years ago, if it weren't for the bailouts they've received.  I doubt bitcoin will get such tender loving care.

Bitcoin is too big to fail!  Cheesy lol lol  Cheesy

The next time BoA fails, USA will print more money, making your money worth less. lol

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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October 01, 2011, 05:53:08 PM
 #239

You mean like Bank of America?
You could have stuck a fork in BofA years ago, if it weren't for the bailouts they've received.  I doubt bitcoin will get such tender loving care.

Bitcoin is too big to fail!  Cheesy lol lol  Cheesy

The next time BoA fails, USA will print more money, making your money worth less. lol

If the USA prints more money then my money will be worth more.  Not everyone on this forum lives in the USA.

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October 04, 2011, 03:58:00 AM
 #240

I am still correct.

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