Track Record Forum Members

[rampantparanoia]

Wanted to give a +1 where its deserved.

Price won't go above 120 usd at bitstamp anytime soon.

Before next Sunday. Probably sooner but I'll give it a week.

Today, 8/30, is "probably sooner" than sunday

[phillipsjk]

I found the Bitcoin Astrology thread interesting, so I decided to trawl it for predictions. Especially in light of this comment:

Haha, finally a technical analysis chart in Speculation that actually predicts something accurately 

just generally & not taking these Bitcoin charts in to account, ... . Sparks should start to fly on Saturday & Sunday will be grim for many (forced liquidation being the order of the day I imagine) the aspects being serious, discouraging & a time to need to face present realities 

The Chart from that week shows a slow steady rise from just under $4.9/BTC to just under $5.0/BTC. (Saturday and Sunday were April 14 and 15, respectively) Miss, though to be fair, Otoh said it was not a full prediction.

...
Bitcoin's horoscope for today May 30, 2012:

Being out in the centre of activities will find you absolutely in your element today. Your popularity is soaring so there is no sense in holding back. Allow yourself to step forward confidently with as much panache as you can muster.

Bitcoin's horoscope for the week of May 31, 2012:
... At this rate, nothing will ever happen. May I suggest that you take the initiative?

These don't make direct predictions. On May 30, the price was down slightly. During the following week, the price climbed from $5.15/BTC to $5.45/BTC. I will call this prediction a draw. The June 1 daily horoscope does not really predict anything either; BTC rose 10 cents that day.

My diary has had this current week marked as 'all in' for months 

It is not clear if this is a prediction or 20/20 hindsight. Otoh seems to start their week on a Friday. The Chart from June 8 to 14 shows a rise from $5.63/BTC to $5.95/BTC (approximate). I am going to call this one a good prediction.

Summary: -1 +0 +1

[flagel8]

OP: This is a fascinating thread. Thanks for starting it. I know I will be paying special attention to several members spotlighted within, and it was very good to have them comment on various calls. Please keep it going!

[cypherdoc]

i don't think this thread is fascinating.  i think it represents cherry picking from RS.

RS has continued to call me a permabull since my participation here on the Forum and has criticized my buy and hold strategy.  i don't  agree with that characterization b/c it implies that i would have been just as likely to buy @ 260 as i was @ 1.60 when i first started buying.  evidence to the contrary of this is that my average cost in is 6.50.  otoh, it's not an entirely unfair characterization either.

here's an example of another way to look at my own trading history/recommendations. let's assume for a moment that i have been a permabull.  i publish my newsletter updates at least once a day.  that would mean i would be recommending buying everyday on both on up days and down days.  if we use the "# of days right versus # days wrong" to assign me a +1 vs -1, the impression that RS is trying to give would be entirely different.  since there have only been 7 days in Bitcoin price history that the price has been higher than today, i would have been "wrong" that many days.  therefore -7 in that category.  but how many days would i have been "right"?  if we go back to my first buy of April 23, 2011, i would have been "right" 862-7=855 days.

thus cypherdoc, +1=855, -1=7

[xxjs]

i don't think this thread is fascinating.  i think it represents cherry picking from RS.

RS has continued to call me a permabull since my participation here on the Forum and has criticized my buy and hold strategy.  i don't  agree with that characterization b/c it implies that i would have been just as likely to buy @ 260 as i was @ 1.60 when i first started buying.  evidence to the contrary of this is that my average cost in is 6.50.  otoh, it's not an entirely unfair characterization either.

here's an example of another way to look at my own trading history/recommendations. let's assume for a moment that i have been a permabull.  i publish my newsletter updates at least once a day.  that would mean i would be recommending buying everyday on both on up days and down days.  if we use the "# of days right versus # days wrong" to assign me a +1 vs -1, the impression that RS is trying to give would be entirely different.  since there have only been 7 days in Bitcoin price history that the price has been higher than today, i would have been "wrong" that many days.  therefore -7 in that category.  but how many days would i have been "right"?  if we go back to my first buy of April 23, 2011, i would have been "right" 862-7=855 days.

thus cypherdoc, +1=855, -1=7

Good one. Soon you will have been right all days, +1=855+@daysofsoon(), -1=0

[RationalSpeculator]

i don't think this thread is fascinating.  i think it represents cherry picking from RS.

RS has continued to call me a permabull since my participation here on the Forum and has criticized my buy and hold strategy.  i don't  agree with that characterization b/c it implies that i would have been just as likely to buy @ 260 as i was @ 1.60 when i first started buying.  evidence to the contrary of this is that my average cost in is 6.50.  otoh, it's not an entirely unfair characterization either.

Indeed, you were just as likely to buy at $260 as any other price. That is exactly my criticism. Your advise was to hold at $260. But advising to hold is very similar as advising to buy. The only difference between someone holding and someone buying is the transaction cost. If you decide to hold you are in fact deciding to buy, but at a little cheaper cost since you avoid transaction cost compared to someone who actually buys. And since price has gone up, and your exposure also, by advising to hold, you are advising to buy more.

Great investors solve this 'frog cooking problem' by asking themselves, 'if I were to liquidate all my investments, the price being what it is today, would I take the same exposure as I have today?'

You say that your average buy in price was only $6 and this is evidence that you were 'not likely to buy at $260' and are not a permabull. Following this logic no one that entered in 2011 can be a permabull as they all have a much lower buy in price. This holds no water. The correct question is, did you succeed to buy on lows when you entered in 2011 or did you also bought on highs? Your track record shows that in 2011 you advised to buy near the top ($18), as well as near the bottoms ($0.67 & $2), and your average price ($6) suggests also you did exactly that. So if you would have entered in 2013 instead of 2011 you would indeed have actually bought at $180 also, as you literally advised others to do.

What's your proof that I am cherry picking when analysing your track record?

here's an example of another way to look at my own trading history/recommendations. let's assume for a moment that i have been a permabull.  i publish my newsletter updates at least once a day.  that would mean i would be recommending buying everyday on both on up days and down days.  if we use the "# of days right versus # days wrong" to assign me a +1 vs -1, the impression that RS is trying to give would be entirely different.  since there have only been 7 days in Bitcoin price history that the price has been higher than today, i would have been "wrong" that many days.  therefore -7 in that category.  but how many days would i have been "right"?  if we go back to my first buy of April 23, 2011, i would have been "right" 862-7=855 days.

thus cypherdoc, +1=855, -1=7

So if price goes to new highs all your past short term calls that proved to be wrong, become correct/good?  

I strongly disagree.

I understand your long term view is that bitcoin still represents a great investment, and this was your view also at past highs, but I am not challenging those calls. I am challenging your short term calls that the price will continue to go up but ends up collapsing for many months.

Your defense that you can't know how high it will go hence you always advised to hold is a poor defense since chances for the price to collapse are going up as the price goes up parabolically. There comes a time when the risk of loss becomes higher than the potential reward. This exact price point is up for discussion but when the price has been going up parabolically for 3 months, just 20 folded, and all other indicators are flashing red that we are in a bubble of epic proportions, it is a statistical certainty that this price point has been breached.

Sure, it can always go up even more but the risk/reward has become outright bad. That is a fact cypherdoc. Advising to hold/buy in such situation is a very poor call. No matter what the price does afterwards. Calling your newsletter 'Financial Risk Analytics' is something you failed to do when it was most important.

Before the bubble popped in 2013 I asked you privately what you learned from your mistake in 2011 and you ignored my question. You still not having admitted that you made bad calls at the highs in 2011 and 2013 indicates you are incapable of critical self evaluation which will only lead you to make the same mistake again.

Also when I first gave this criticism publicly on your thread you responded by revealing personal communication of me when I consulted you for a private matter and payed you. This angers me and damaged my trust in you.

[RationalSpeculator]

OP: This is a fascinating thread. Thanks for starting it. I know I will be paying special attention to several members spotlighted within, and it was very good to have them comment on various calls. Please keep it going!

Thank you so much flagel

[cypherdoc]

i don't think this thread is fascinating.  i think it represents cherry picking from RS.

RS has continued to call me a permabull since my participation here on the Forum and has criticized my buy and hold strategy.  i don't  agree with that characterization b/c it implies that i would have been just as likely to buy @ 260 as i was @ 1.60 when i first started buying.  evidence to the contrary of this is that my average cost in is 6.50.  otoh, it's not an entirely unfair characterization either.

Indeed, you were just as likely to buy at $260 as any other price. That is exactly my criticism. Your advise was to hold at $260. But advising to hold is very similar as advising to buy. The only difference between someone holding and someone buying is the transaction cost. If you decide to hold you are in fact deciding to buy, but at a little cheaper cost since you avoid transaction cost compared to someone who actually buys. And since price has gone up, and your exposure also, by advising to hold, you are advising to buy more.

the last "buy" i made was just over $10 as we were coming out of the bottom in Oct 2012.  and "holding" or "stick with it" all the way up to 260 is not the same as advising to "buy".  and the fact is i did not buy @ 260.

Great investors solve this 'frog cooking problem' by asking themselves, 'if I were to liquidate all my investments, the price being what it is today, would I take the same exposure as I have today?'

You say that your average buy in price was only $6 and this is evidence that you were 'not likely to buy at $260' and are not a permabull. Following this logic no one that entered in 2011 can be a permabull as they all have a much lower buy in price. This holds no water. The correct question is, did you succeed to buy on lows when you entered in 2011 or did you also bought on highs? Your track record shows that in 2011 you advised to buy near the top ($18), as well as near the bottoms ($0.67 & $2), and your average price ($6) suggests also you did exactly that. So if you would have entered in 2013 instead of 2011 you would indeed have actually bought at $180 also, as you literally advised others to do.

how does this even make sense?  your implications, extrapolations and assumptions are so off base.  and they don't even take into account any accelerated buying into the lows.  yes, i was buying on the way down from 32 but at an accelerating rate the deeper the drop went down to 2.

What's your proof that I am cherry picking when analysing your track record?

simple.  one of the -1's you assigned me was the "BTFD" comment.  you ignore all the "buy", "stick with it" or "hold" recommendations all the way up from 30 to 260 when we first had talked.  why don't i get +1's for those?  i gave you a very valid tongue in cheek argument that a daily right/wrong count of 855 to 7 could be applied to me since you believe me to be a permabull.  i say tongue in cheek b/c i actually think it's a stupid argument that applies very well to a stupid thread.

here's an example of another way to look at my own trading history/recommendations. let's assume for a moment that i have been a permabull.  i publish my newsletter updates at least once a day.  that would mean i would be recommending buying everyday on both on up days and down days.  if we use the "# of days right versus # days wrong" to assign me a +1 vs -1, the impression that RS is trying to give would be entirely different.  since there have only been 7 days in Bitcoin price history that the price has been higher than today, i would have been "wrong" that many days.  therefore -7 in that category.  but how many days would i have been "right"?  if we go back to my first buy of April 23, 2011, i would have been "right" 862-7=855 days.

thus cypherdoc, +1=855, -1=7

So if price goes to new highs all your past short term calls that proved to be wrong, become correct/good?  

I strongly disagree.

I understand your long term view is that bitcoin still represents a great investment, and this was your view also at past highs, but I am not challenging those calls. I am challenging your short term calls that the price will continue to go up but ends up collapsing for many months.

Your defense that you can't know how high it will go hence you always advised to hold is a poor defense since chances for the price to collapse are going up as the price goes up parabolically. There comes a time when the risk of loss becomes higher than the potential reward. This exact price point is up for discussion but when the price has been going up parabolically for 3 months, just 20 folded, and all other indicators are flashing red that we are in a bubble of epic proportions, it is a statistical certainty that this price point has been breached.

Sure, it can always go up even more but the risk/reward has become outright bad. That is a fact cypherdoc. Advising to hold/buy in such situation is a very poor call. No matter what the price does afterwards. Calling your newsletter 'Financial Risk Analytics' is something you failed to do when it was most important.

i think your continual criticism against the many of us around here who are long term investors who believe in a buy and hold strategy is irrational, not rational.  we don't care about how you feel about a 4 mo drop or consolidation b/c we have done our homework and understand what we're dealing with.  you happen to be a day trader.  i am not.  i used those drops as buying opportunities.  i used the last drop from 32 to 2 to buy more BTC than you'll ever have.  this drop i've used to buy more asic mining equipment and get involved in the Bitcoin business community.

Before the bubble popped in 2013 I asked you privately what you learned from your mistake in 2011 and you ignored my question. You still not having admitted that you made bad calls at the highs in 2011 and 2013 indicates you are incapable of critical self evaluation which will only lead you to make the same mistake again.

this is exactly my point.  you continue to criticize the long term buy and hold strategists like sunnankar, vladimir and i.  i didn't answer you b/c you view my accelerated buying down into the $2 bottom as a mistake.  i view it as a huge win.  you fail to acknowledge others viewpoints of the exact same situation (32 to 2) and (260 to 50) so why should i waste my time answering you?  

Also when I first gave this criticism publicly on your thread you responded by revealing personal communication of me when I consulted you for a private matter and payed you. This angers me and damaged my trust in you.

the only part of that communication that i revealed was what i said, nothing you said.  plus, it was a response to your attack of me in my sub thread and involved an email that was over a month and a half old.  besides, there was nothing in there i haven't already said in my gold threads.

let me ask you something.  at the time of that email the price was around 30 and i warned you clearly we were going to have a massive breakout.  which we did.  the price now stands @ 146.  my returns since that time using buy and hold are 146/30 or 487% (i know thezerg and dree will go off on this way of calc but this is for arguments sake).  what have your returns been with your day trading strategy?  

be honest.

[Odalv]

a) Buy and hold is very good strategy ( safe 550%/year ROI ).
b) Daytrading is gambling .. maybe you will make 5500% and maybe you will end up at 0% ... it is zero sum game so 1 will win and 10 will have to pay losses

[cypherdoc]

i went back and looked at no less than 7 private email communications btwn the 2 of us back near 3/4/13 where i urged you to buy hard, just before the huge breakout.  in fact i said "sell all your silver" and "sell half your gold" to buy BTC.

and yet you continue to ride me about that one question you think i failed to answer back to you.  

let me say it again.  it was a senseless and meaningless question that i tossed aside b/c it started from the flawed assumption that buying the dip from 32 to 2 was a MISTAKE.

i also looked at the price of gold which was 1584 back on 3/4/13. tonite we are @ 1382 in the futures.  you didn't listen to me about selling gold and silver either.

[Ares]

From the wall observer thread

For the bulls:

It's a longshot, but we might be in the mother of all head and shoulders:

The plot thickens... 

[thezerg]

yes Cypher hit the nail on the head with the prob with this thread which is why I stopped bothering.

if I recommended buy at 80, 70, 60, 50.5 during one of the crashes technically I'd be +1, -3 since price kept falling till the last.  but in practice I'd be way ahead. RS is looking for an oracle

cypher btw your math is fine... its when you compare % that things aren't straightforward

[oda.krell]

Have been tangentially following this thread for a while now, because I think the declared goal is interesting at least: to create a history of predictions (and track record of posters).

But in the end,  I have to agree  with cypherdog and thezerg, the methodology of RS is very much lacking and nothing useful is being created here unfortunately. It's cherry picking quotes, without any attempt to put them into a context (of price at the time, contrasting them with general forum sentiment at the time, etc.)

There's something else though, I noticed in here: among early investors (compared to those who only came shortly before or after the 2013 peak/bubble) it seems to be common to bash daytrading, and recommend b&h instead. That's a bit of a naive position that ignores that those who only came a few months ago, needed to make a decision that is far from obvious, even if they are in principle inclined to hold long-term: buy in now, or later.

The performance of b&h of the "old guard" is undeniably fantastic. But keep in mind that of the huge number of new investors that came around/after April, many are still in the negative if they would have employed "unconditional" b&h  and simply bought at the earliest possibility (although many of them are about to break even, I suppose). Contrast this with some mild form of TA guided trading, say, something crude like "buy if price crosses daily EMA20 from below, sell if it crosses from above". A ridiculously simple strategy, and it would have given the new arrivals a number of useful trading signals: assuming you held btc before the peak, it would have advised selling well before the bottom April bottom, assuming you arrived with fiat buying in at around 110 (which would be profitable by now). It also would have correctly, and with a nice profit, identified the long June downtrend.

Note that I'm not suggesting every newcomer should base his trading decision on this indicator. Just that the high praise for b&h can sound a bit shallow if it comes from investors that have been around for a long time already, well before the parabolic rise earlier this year.

[NewLiberty]

Also when I first gave this criticism publicly on your thread you responded by revealing personal communication of me when I consulted you for a private matter and payed you. This angers me and damaged my trust in you.

the only part of that communication that i revealed was what i said, nothing you said.  plus, it was a response to your attack of me in my sub thread and involved an email that was over a month and a half old.  besides, there was nothing in there i haven't already said in my gold threads.

It is rarely good practice to expose one's clients in this way.  
When buying advice, I do not expect those with whom I consult to advertise that fact without permission.

[cypherdoc]

Also when I first gave this criticism publicly on your thread you responded by revealing personal communication of me when I consulted you for a private matter and payed you. This angers me and damaged my trust in you.

the only part of that communication that i revealed was what i said, nothing you said.  plus, it was a response to your attack of me in my sub thread and involved an email that was over a month and a half old.  besides, there was nothing in there i haven't already said in my gold threads.

It is rarely good practice to expose one's clients in this way.  
When buying advice, I do not expect those with whom I consult to advertise that fact without permission.

yeah, that probably wasn't the best choice on my part.

[NewLiberty]

Have been tangentially following this thread for a while now, because I think the declared goal is interesting at least: to create a history of predictions (and track record of posters).

But in the end,  I have to agree  with cypherdog and thezerg, the methodology of RS is very much lacking and nothing useful is being created here unfortunately. It's cherry picking quotes, without any attempt to put them into a context (of price at the time, contrasting them with general forum sentiment at the time, etc.)

Yes, it would be good to have a clearing house for "intentional predictions" where they can be tracked.  There is lots of informal supposition that can be construed as prediction.

The oracles that want accountability should have a place to get that, with a clear methodology.

[oda.krell]

Have been tangentially following this thread for a while now, because I think the declared goal is interesting at least: to create a history of predictions (and track record of posters).

But in the end,  I have to agree  with cypherdog and thezerg, the methodology of RS is very much lacking and nothing useful is being created here unfortunately. It's cherry picking quotes, without any attempt to put them into a context (of price at the time, contrasting them with general forum sentiment at the time, etc.)

Yes, it would be good to have a clearing house for "intentional predictions" where they can be tracked.  There is lots of informal supposition that can be construed as prediction.

The oracles that want accountability should have a place to get that, with a clear methodology.

I dont't think there's a way to make it work. This place is way too informal to really "track predictions", half of the time half of us are trolling anyway. And in a way, I like it like that.

It would be interesting however to to have a thread in which every active member makes a, say, 1 or 2 month prediction (price range, overall development, etc.), and the ones that did best will get magical Internet points. Everyone likes those.

[rampantparanoia]

It would be interesting however to to have a thread in which every active member makes a, say, 1 or 2 month prediction (price range, overall development, etc.), and the ones that did best will get magical Internet points. Everyone likes those.

you mean, like this thing called bitcoin?

[NewLiberty]

Have been tangentially following this thread for a while now, because I think the declared goal is interesting at least: to create a history of predictions (and track record of posters).

But in the end,  I have to agree  with cypherdog and thezerg, the methodology of RS is very much lacking and nothing useful is being created here unfortunately. It's cherry picking quotes, without any attempt to put them into a context (of price at the time, contrasting them with general forum sentiment at the time, etc.)

Yes, it would be good to have a clearing house for "intentional predictions" where they can be tracked.  There is lots of informal supposition that can be construed as prediction.

The oracles that want accountability should have a place to get that, with a clear methodology.

I dont't think there's a way to make it work. This place is way too informal to really "track predictions", half of the time half of us are trolling anyway. And in a way, I like it like that.

It would be interesting however to to have a thread in which every active member makes a, say, 1 or 2 month prediction (price range, overall development, etc.), and the ones that did best will get magical Internet points. Everyone likes those.

Right.  I was thinking something like that but with less structure and more real-time.  So that when someone spots a pattern that means something to them, or has a dream, or reads the tea leaves or has inside information....and they make a prediction that they really believe in, they can put a link to it in a common thread where they can get subjected to abuse/praise.

[RationalSpeculator]

Two months ago on on June 27th when the market droppped  BrightAnarchist said:

Absolutely. I'm short everything right now

Then stock market rallies from 1573 to 1700 in two months.  Bitcoin rallies from 70 to 140 USD.  So, general rule is be careful when seeking advice.

But, I suspect BrightAnarchist will make the right call eventually, since if you call a bear market repeatedly then there may be a higher probability you will eventually be correct.  Once a bear market does happen BrightAnarchist will essentially say "I told you so" and everyone will think he is a genius, but in reality he is a human and has made wrong calls in the past.  Sorry for being blunt, BrightAnarchist.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg2590652#msg2590652