Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View

[Xephan]

Bitcoin is secure/anonymous whatever other super-fantastic crypto-bullcrap? Again, no-one in the public gives a shit. There's zero value proposition relative to anything bitcoin is built on.

Side note: You ought to tone down on the use of "no-one", "nobody", "nothing". While you might have a point, using words like that just makes you sound like a frothing fanatic. And again to provide the minimum singular needed to defeat the "no-one" claim, I for one became interested in bitcoin precisely because of its anonymous nature. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

There's just simply no place in the real people's economy for this little hobby experiment.

If only somebody could get some marketing material to a few mafia rings, drug cartels and such. It would probably be in their interest (and within their capabilities) to make bitcoin viable

[flug]

Here's the fact of the matter...

[speculation and opinion]

...these are the facts.

I really can't see the point of engaging with this kind of agenda driven dishonesty.

[Synaptic]

Here's the fact of the matter...

[speculation and opinion]

...these are the facts.

I really can't see the point of engaging with this kind of agenda driven dishonesty.

Then shut up.

[Tasty Champa]

so what you are saying is we should all sell,
and let the exchanges and GODMODE (the guy with 10,000+BTC) have the empty bag all to themselves?

seems like it could work.

[wumpus]

In fact I belive in an eventual viable crypto-currency, WITH global adoption.  I'm actually a supporter of a One World Government (I actually believe we already have one by defacto standards of operation) and obviously there will need to be an currency that transcends geography.

Bitcoin already transacends geography and allows for transferring value without requiring the world to switch to a centralised command structure. This is already in place, and years ahead of anything global diplomatic committee can come up with.

You seem to see bitcoin as a company/entity that tries to displace all other currencies. That's simply not the goal. Don't believe the libertarian crackpots on this forum, this is *not* a political faction. This is simply open source distributed culture spreading to value exchange systems. Just like operating systems like Linux/BSD broke the Microsoft monoculture, systems like Bitcoin break the money transfer "monoculture".

For now I see Bitcoin as the perfect payment method for international online jobs. Someone in India could write a program for you, and you can pay for it instantly, without having to worry about banking options available for you/him and the fees associated with that. Internet connectivity is enough.

But if you rather wait for the "one global currency" that's OK too. But there's nothing wrong with kids being enthusiastic about it. They're usually more idealistic and sooner see the advantages of new technology even in its baby stages. And it's pointless trying to discourage them from that, they'll just see you as a old sob that defends the status quo. And they're not wasting their time, at least they're learning useful skills instead of watching tv...

[patvarilly]

For now I see Bitcoin as the perfect payment method for international online jobs. Someone in India could write a program for you, and you can pay for it instantly, without having to worry about banking options available for you/him and the fees associated with that. Internet connectivity is enough.

+1

Overall, I agree with 99% of Synaptic's analysis, and I especially agree with a few of the other posters' comments about there not being enough criticism and dissent in these forums.  Right now, Bitcoins, for all their technical glory (which, truly, is admirable), don't seem to do anything useful to any appreciable extent other than allow earlier-fools to relieve themselves of their BTC holdings by selling them to incoming greater-fools...  That's true of almost everything I've read *except* for the international transactions part.  I'm sensitive to that part (having lived in or having family ties to four or five different countries and about to move again), and I can *definitely* see the value proposition in near-frictionless transactions across borders where you don't have to trust anyone along the way.  The fees and hassle to do this in the normal banking system nowadays are truly outrageous.  If no alternative to Bitcoin ever succeeds, international transactions are perhaps the only thing I'd ever use Bitcoins for (even then, I'd use BTC for the whole of 10-20 minutes as an intermediate currency, and it's not hard to see how having to go through a million intermediaries to do this might kill even *that* use case).  But I really hope that an alternative to Bitcoin does emerge, one that isn't drowning in libertarian/anarcho-capitalist kool-aid and does not shoot itself in the foot with fringe, unworkable economics.

[wumpus]

But I really hope that an alternative to Bitcoin does emerge, one that isn't drowning in libertarian/anarcho-capitalist kool-aid and does not shoot itself in the foot with fringe, unworkable economics.

Right. But which of those is a *technical* issue with bitcoin? You're too conflating fringe political motives of some forum members with the technical direction (and usefulness) of the project. No alternative software has to be introduced to tone down the loonies, as there is no license agreement that says "you have to be libertarian to use this".

It's not really your fault either. I really wish this forum was distanced from the project page somehow, and a simple "user/merchant/developer support" forum took its place. No political or economical speculation talk at all. Sometimes I feel fucked as a developer as I'm genuinely trying to help people and don't really want to be associated with the crap this forum has become.

[flug]

The long term trend for bitcoin value is contraction, not expansion.

...

+ Bitcoin just enjoyed more media exposure over the past 3 months than can reasonably be expected to occur anywhere in the near future. There's just nothing newsworthy forthcoming unless there is something scandalous that happens again, and we're just about out of interesting scandals. We've made the rounds from illegal purchasing to hacking to market failures.
  There's just nothing left to get the attention of corporate media. The fact is that no-one cares about bitcoin as a medium of exchange, except a small core constituency of idealists here on these forums. It HAD newsworthy spectacle value as prices skyrocketed and people "got rich quick," but those times are over.  There is nothing left of newsworthy value.

Why do the short term and transitory effects of news coverage affect Bitcoin's long term success?

[kiwiasian]

I can't believe some of the things being said in this thread. OP makes a detailed explanation of what happened, is happening, and will happen to the economy and you guys are flaming/trolling his thread.

All of you guys need to stop living in your ideal dream world where Bitcoin will last forever. Fact is, it's not going to. OP is just pointing out the fact and bringing reality to us.

[flug]

I can't believe some of the things being said in this thread. OP makes a detailed explanation of what happened, is happening, and will happen to the economy and you guys are flaming/trolling his thread.

All of you guys need to stop living in your ideal dream world where Bitcoin will last forever. Fact is, it's not going to. OP is just pointing out the fact and bringing reality to us.

But back to the question in hand.

What's the connection between the trailing off of the initial media coverage of Bitcoin and the long term prospects of Bitcoin?

[Edward50]

I can't believe some of the things being said in this thread. OP makes a detailed explanation of what happened, is happening, and will happen to the economy and you guys are flaming/trolling his thread.

All of you guys need to stop living in your ideal dream world where Bitcoin will last forever. Fact is, it's not going to. OP is just pointing out the fact and bringing reality to us.

But back to the question in hand.

What's the connection between the trailing off of the initial media coverage of Bitcoin and the long term prospects of Bitcoin?

My take on this would be that the only reason bitcoin went up in value was because of the media coverage it got at one point. I agree with this because even though I heard about bitcoin earlier, I did not look into it in more detail until I saw an article on yahoo.com. I would also say that most of the hype and why the price shot to $30 dollars was all the media coverage around that time.

Now that bitcoin got media coverage and there is probably not many more reasons to give it as much media coverage it will just be an unknown hobby currency and die out. This is all speculation as who knows what media coverage it will get in the future.

I guess media coverage is a way of free advertising. Without advertising most products will go unknown and never sell. Same goes with bitcoin. You need to hype it, dump it, lol. 

[flug]

I can't believe some of the things being said in this thread. OP makes a detailed explanation of what happened, is happening, and will happen to the economy and you guys are flaming/trolling his thread.

All of you guys need to stop living in your ideal dream world where Bitcoin will last forever. Fact is, it's not going to. OP is just pointing out the fact and bringing reality to us.

But back to the question in hand.

What's the connection between the trailing off of the initial media coverage of Bitcoin and the long term prospects of Bitcoin?

My take on this would be that the only reason bitcoin went up in value was because of the media coverage it got at one point. I agree with this because even though I heard about bitcoin earlier, I did not look into it in more detail until I saw an article on yahoo.com. I would also say that most of the hype and why the price shot to $30 dollars was all the media coverage around that time.

Now that bitcoin got media coverage and there is probably not many more reasons to give it as much media coverage it will just be an unknown hobby currency and die out. This is all speculation as who knows what media coverage it will get in the future.

I guess media coverage is a way of free advertising. Without advertising most products will go unknown and never sell. Same goes with bitcoin. You need to hype it, dump it, lol. 

But what can we learn about the long term prospects of Bitcoin from this episode? Does this tell us anything about where Bitcoin is going to be in 2 years? I'm attempting to deconstruct Synaptic's OP bit by bit here, and show what a pile of meaningless speculation it is.

[Xephan]

But what can we learn about the long term prospects of Bitcoin from this episode? Does this tell us anything about where Bitcoin is going to be in 2 years? I'm attempting to deconstruct Synaptic's OP bit by bit here, and show what a pile of meaningless speculation it is.

I believe there is a saying that share prices does not reflect the performance of the company, only the public expectations of it. So I doubt this episode tells us anything significant about the future of Bitcoin that wasn't obvious before. The fundamental remains, there must be a sufficiently vibrant economy (be it games, services, drugs or porn) in which bitcoin is a preferred currency. Otherwise, it will die off just as Synaptic believes.

[SlaveInDebt]

[flug]

The fundamental remains, there must be a sufficiently vibrant economy (be it games, services, drugs or porn) in which bitcoin is a preferred currency. Otherwise, it will die off just as Synaptic believes.

Sure, if a vibrant Bitcoin economy doesn't develop in the long term then Bitcoin will stagnate in the long term. That's self evident. Synaptic was saying that because the press interest has died down after the initial surge that's proof that Bitcoin won't prosper long term. That's not self evident. That's meaningless waffle.

[makomk]

Then they can leave negative feedback.

There might be slight practical issues with logging on to Tor from a prison cell.

[Xephan]

Sure, if a vibrant Bitcoin economy doesn't develop in the long term then Bitcoin will stagnate in the long term. That's self evident. Synaptic was saying that because the press interest has died down after the initial surge that's proof that Bitcoin won't prosper long term. That's not self evident. That's meaningless waffle.

I think he was having problems bringing his point across due to his English and mannerism. The way I see it, he's trying to say that the price increase in bitcoin was due to media hype and there is nothing he could imagine that would drive it up again, because there is no economy to back up the bitcoin currency and the declining price since the hype is his alleged evidence. While I quite disagree with the point about not possibly being newsworthy again, the latter about not having much of an economy to back bitcoin is unfortunately relatively true at this point.

Until the community or somebody can kickstart something that uses bitcoin in significant volume relative to the generation, the long term outlook is not that bright barring drastic changes in the socio-economic environment.

[wareen]

...the latter about not having much of an economy to back bitcoin is unfortunately relatively true at this point.

Well, at least the entries on the trade page from the wiki seems to be growing nicely:

(according discussion at https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26047)

Personally I find the possibility to buy all the stuff from amazon.com with Bitcoins through spendbitcoins.com as the greatest step forward recently. I mean: what more can you ask for? Everybody asking me what you can do with Bitcoins was pretty impressed to hear that you can shop at amazon with it.

Granted, it's through a gift code, but it is at the current market rate without any fees!

[Xephan]

Well, at least the entries on the trade page from the wiki seems to be growing nicely:

Unfortunately this is similar to forum memberships. Unless somebody is checking the links periodically and removing dead entries (no longer accepting bitcoins or closed, doesn't work or whatever), it won't prove that a economy is growing around bitcoin.

Personally I find the possibility to buy all the stuff from amazon.com with Bitcoins through spendbitcoins.com as the greatest step forward recently. I mean: what more can you ask for? Everybody asking me what you can do with Bitcoins was pretty impressed to hear that you can shop at amazon with it.

Granted, it's through a gift code, but it is at the current market rate without any fees!

This is a good sign though, the next question is then how many people actually uses it and how long will it be sustainable. It would be good if the community supports this effort by paying exclusively using bitcoin on Amazon. It will drive up the volume and it would really be a coup if Amazon starts accepting bitcoin directly.

[Xephan]

Even though media coverage is far from the peak, new forum accounts are still created at ~40% speed compared to when media coverage peaked in June. Obviously if people aren't interested, they wouldn't spend time creating forum accounts.

Playing the devil's advocate, Synaptic would probably rubbish it off as clones created by the diehard 10,000~15000 natives