YIFU IS AUCTIONNING?

[PuertoLibre]

We all knew Avalon's ASIC chip design & fab process technology would be poor compared to current state of the art, but people (including me) were interested in their chips due to the time to market advantage.

What was not understood was just how poor and low performing Avalon's design was compared to Gen2 ASICs from other strong design teams. KnC, Cointerra and other groups are now coming out with designs that render anything Avalon is offering completely obsolete, even Avalon's gen2 is behind by a wide margin.

I think Avalon might be out of the game soon, it makes little sense to buy an Avalon based system at any price due to their higher Watts/GH requirements. Avalon self mining with their own gen2 might not be very profitable either. If that is the case where does that leave them? Sure they made a ton of money in the past year, but did they blew the money on a Gen2 design that they can not recoup?

I actually agree with this statement with one major caveat.

Avalon catched up to BFL (performance per watt wise) in gen 2. So if you make the argument that Avalons second generation is now obsolete....then the case is also made for BFL hardware.

Good thing Yifu is already working on gen 3 and 4 in parallel.

Question what is the $$$ to GH/s ratio for Avalon in gen 2? How does it compare to BFL hardware or current 28nm designs?

He has beyond the pale burnt his bridges ...nobody will trust him with anything

He better hope that what he produces is a the friken solution to the fusion reactor of an ASIC chip.... as the guy is a scammer and a dog and is not welcome

To be honest If i had 1 spare life jacket and both Yifu & Josh where drowning ...I would give it to Josh ..lolz

I'd rather you throw it into the sea. (save the dolphins or sharks instead)

[Minor Miner]

They dropped the min bid on Minis to 2BTC

Now who's interested?

I would be interested if tradehill wasnt involved, but screw waiting a week for bids

I would be interested if I did not believe that I would just be buying my own batch II boards which I already paid for and someone withheld for months.

[PuertoLibre]

They dropped the min bid on Minis to 2BTC

This exact same scenario will happen with Cointerra and Hashfast @ 28nm. It will only take a while longer to get there.

Eventually the economics of mining will be so skewed towards "zero" that even 28nm devices won't be viable. Even lowering the price of a 28nm miner to almost production cost won't really help the matter.

As for those who think that it will level out, they are right, but it won't level off and taper off, it will just stay at a perpetual plateau where people who invested too much into mining will struggle against math to get their money back out of hardware. Selling to each other is one viable option.

Another option is to buy into FPGA's that can be programmed to mine coins not based on SHA256. But again it is a major gamble...who would use coins beyond the Scrypt and SHA256 variety? The money in an exchange just wouldn't be there. At best speculators with remaining cash reserves would put their cash into the exchanges.

Word to the wise, find out where the third generation Alt-Coin is going to be and when it is very cheap pump your money into it and hold.

==========================

Or

You could always build up a fortune of Bitcoins and speculate lightly and live/supplement your income from that for a pretty long time. Although that presumes that Bitcoin will still remain money pot on the exchanges in the next 2 years.

I am just waiting until someone ruins the alt coins by saying very unnecessary things.

<Puts away the crystal ball>

[greaterninja]

Auction will not be over until 10/15/2013 (Tuesday)
This means it will probably not ship until 2-3 days later minimum.   On top of that you will have to wait another 2 days minimum to receive the item.

So you probably will not receive item until at the very least 10/19/13 (Saturday) or 10/21/2013 (Monday)

BTC difficulty is projected to jump at the very least 23.47% in 7.31 days which lands it on 10/17/2013.
Being in this business a while I have learned its always best to assume higher than 25% jump.   The average the past few months has been about 33% every 10.x days so I used 35% difficulty increase in my calculations.
So to be conservative lets say difficulty will jump 35% every 10.x days and power / cooling power will run 1000 watts/hour at 15 cents kwh (fees, taxes, etc averaged per kwh).

This means units will arrive when difficulty hits at least 255,281, 249.     The absolute most this thing will make before power costs more than it produces is 3-4 BTC.
Power costs will be more than it makes after December-March 2013.  

Historically, Yifu has always been 3 months late minimum on his delivery quotes.  I'd say this device is worth 2-3 BTC tops.  To add more questionability:  If you get a bad power supply or no PSU at all...then that will set you back another $60-75 USD minimum



jump   difficulty       usd/btc   ฿ revenue (excl. power)   ฿ total   $ total   $ revenue (incl. power)
1 (on 2013/10/11)   255,281,249   + 35 %   121   1.41843 ฿   0   0   127.88 $
2 (on 2013/10/23)   344,185,167   + 34.8 %   121   1.05204 ฿   1.05204   83.69   83.69 $
3 (on 2013/11/03)   463,454,302   + 34.7 %   121   0.7813 ฿   1.83335   134.72   51.03 $
4 (on 2013/11/15)   623,254,303   + 34.5 %   121   0.58098 ฿   2.41433   161.59   26.87 $
5 (on 2013/11/27)   837,084,523   + 34.3 %   121   0.43257 ฿   2.8469   170.56   8.97 $
6 (on 2013/12/09)   1,122,848,215   + 34.1 %   121   0.32248 ฿   3.16938   166.25   -4.31 $
7 (on 2013/12/21)   1,504,258,787   + 34 %   121   0.24072 ฿   3.4101   152.08   -14.17 $
8 (on 2014/01/02)   2,012,685,276   + 33.8 %   121   0.17991 ฿   3.59   130.58   -21.5 $
9 (on 2014/01/14)   2,689,571,101   + 33.6 %   121   0.13463 ฿   3.72463   103.62   -26.96 $
10 (on 2014/01/26)   3,589,600,133   + 33.5 %   121   0.10087 ฿   3.82551   72.59   -31.03 $
11 (on 2014/02/07)   4,784,835,676   + 33.3 %   121   0.07568 ฿   3.90118   38.52   -34.07 $
12 (on 2014/02/19)   6,370,124,480   + 33.1 %   121   0.05684 ฿   3.95803   2.18   -36.34 $
13 (on 2014/03/03)   8,470,143,472   + 33 %   121   0.04275 ฿   4.00078   -35.86   -38.04 $
14 (on 2014/03/15)   11,248,576,982   + 32.8 %   121   0.03219 ฿   4.03297   -75.18   -39.32 $
15 (on 2014/03/27)   14,920,053,582   + 32.6 %   121   0.02427 ฿   4.05724   -115.45   -40.27 $
16 (on 2014/04/09)   19,765,652,915   + 32.5 %   121   0.01832 ฿   4.07556   -156.44   -40.99 $
17 (on 2014/04/21)   26,153,025,076   + 32.3 %   121   0.01385 ฿   4.0894   -197.97   -41.53 $
18 (on 2014/05/03)   34,562,462,140   + 32.2 %   121   0.01048 ฿   4.09988   -239.91   -41.94 $
19 (on 2014/05/15)   45,620,640,886   + 32 %   121   0.00794 ฿   4.10782   -282.15   -42.24 $
20 (on 2014/05/27)   60,144,240,006   + 31.8 %   121   0.00602 ฿   4.11384   -324.62   -42.47 $
21 (on 2014/06/08)   79,196,252,193   + 31.7 %   121   0.00457 ฿   4.11841   -367.27   -42.65 $
22 (on 2014/06/20)   104,158,596,975   + 31.5 %   121   0.00348 ฿   4.12189   -410.05   -42.78 $
23 (on 2014/07/02)   136,825,638,680   + 31.4 %   121   0.00265 ฿   4.12453   -452.93   -42.88 $
24 (on 2014/07/14)   179,524,481,757   + 31.2 %   121   0.00202 ฿   4.12655   -495.89   -42.96 $
25 (on 2014/07/26)   235,269,523,357   + 31.1 %   121   0.00154 ฿   4.12809   -538.9   -43.01 $

[itod]

I am just waiting until someone ruins the alt coins by saying very unnecessary things.

I like your analysis, but I don't get this. Can you elaborate a bit?

[zerocode20]

Not bad if you can pick them up for 2-2.5btc. I am planning on picking up 2. Hopefully I don't get screwed.

[greaterninja]

Not bad if you can pick them up for 2-2.5btc. I am planning on picking up 2. Hopefully I don't get screwed.

my analysis shows bidding anything  over 2.5 btc per unit is a significant risk.  Hashrate extrapolation shows difficulty will now jump by at least 30% (probably 33+% as thats about the average for reach interval jump.


This does not even factor BitSyncom's "clearing price" and if you have to buy your own power supply, etc.  To be conservative its best to assume there will be no power supply and BitSyncom will try and charge other fees that are not disclosed.


2-2.5 btc max.  3 btc you stand a chance to lose money.

[dogjunior]

I would not buy anything from YIFU. He name in English mean "yes I fucked you".

[joeventura]

Not bad if you can pick them up for 2-2.5btc. I am planning on picking up 2. Hopefully I don't get screwed.

And you are what is wrong in this scenario.

Then you pay a few coins and don't get what you paid for or when you paid for it. and then you bitch and complain. Why put another penny in this assholes pocket for what he has done and all the businesses he has ruined??!?!

Let him shove them up his ass.

[ProfMac]

All 500 units have been bid on now.  The price is starting to rise above 2.000 BTC.

[rocks]

Not bad if you can pick them up for 2-2.5btc. I am planning on picking up 2. Hopefully I don't get screwed.

Why? You are going to go through a huge amount of risk and hassle to spend 2 BTC and maybe receive 2.5 BTC back, only if everything goes correctly. If anything goes wrong you will lose BTC on the entire transaction.

Why not just go to coinbase.com or some other site and purchase 0.5 BTC today. Zero risk and bother, and you end up with the same amount of BTC in the end (2 BTC that you did not spend plus 0.5 BTC that you bought).

My point is these devices are barely going to return a few BTC before it makes economical sense to turn them off. That is so little I just can not see how it is worth the time and effort at this point.

[iikun]

I would've had a go at 2 or 2.1 say, but too late now to start the docs process. 
Bitsyncom must have been stuck with a lot of chips for it to be worth their while to assemble these & ship worldwide for 2btc, unless there is something I'm missing?

[edgar]

I would've had a go at 2 or 2.1 say, but too late now to start the docs process. 
Bitsyncom must have been stuck with a lot of chips for it to be worth their while to assemble these & ship worldwide for 2btc, unless there is something I'm missing?

most of us are missing the BTC that yifu 'didnt premine' with all our rigs...

i imagine the buyer of the 500 rigs thinks they are going to be a good investment.

much more likely is that yifu or his crew just placed 500 x 2btc bids to make it look like they are popular/selling out fast...

i certainly wouldnt put it past him

[rudrigorc2]

next diff adjust will be very close to 40%

2 btc is very expensive price for these units.

[greaterninja]

next diff adjust will be very close to 40%

2 btc is very expensive price for these units.

currently projected@30.5% difficulty jump right now.  was at 28% this morning.  Its most likely gonna hit 35-55% by the 10 day mark.

[rograz]

well if they do manage to turn a positive ROI (they most likely will if they are sent within 48h as auction states, good luck!) you have a lot of alu scrap you can sell for added profit!

[sikman]

are these units held in USA by tradehill or will they be shipped out of Avalons warehouse from China? I sent an email to tradehill but got no reply as I want to make sure shipping to Australia wont be a problem

[zerocode20]

Not bad if you can pick them up for 2-2.5btc. I am planning on picking up 2. Hopefully I don't get screwed.

And you are what is wrong in this scenario.

Then you pay a few coins and don't get what you paid for or when you paid for it. and then you bitch and complain. Why put another penny in this assholes pocket for what he has done and all the businesses he has ruined??!?!

Let him shove them up his ass.

Unfortunately, I do not totally understand what happened with Tradehill and the forum members. All I know is that these units with sell for more than quadruple their cost on eBay. That is much greater than every worrying about ROI. I could even mine with them for a month and still manage to sell them and make a profit. Additionally, I have no grounds for complains as bitcoin and mining is a fun hobby for me since I am an engineer geek.

[zerocode20]

2 btc for a 60gh rig is expensive i agree.

how about those 23gh modules that are STILL up for 3.80BTC

have the lunatics actually taken over the asylum??

It is expensive if you are expecting an ROI. 30GH BFL devices are still selling for over $1k on eBay. Tell me that is not ridiculous!?

[dogie]

Its got to the point where it is costing him more to store them than it costs to send them around the world which is more than they're worth in purchase price to us.

How sad