panjul07
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September 21, 2019, 06:44:59 AM |
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The win chance shown in lottery section of freebitco website is calculated wrong. The real win chance is bigger than what is shown. Now the win chance shown is equal to [(your tickets/total tickets)*100%]*10. It's wrong. The real win chance is bigger. Because the person who wins the first prize will no longer have the chance to win the second to tenth prize, and all his tickets are removed when next winners are being determined.
Even then I have not heard form anyone here if they had won a lottery. Few of my friends also play at freebitco and they also did not win any big prize. I wonder if this lottery system is fair ? ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) Just because your friends did not win any big prize then you starts to think that the lottery is not fair without checking the details on how freebitcoin draw the lottery? If you have never heard anyone here won the lottery means that you did not try to find the information. I'm quite sure there are some people share their winning on the lottery here, there is even a special thread for it IIRC. Even if there is no one claims that they won the lottery the I think it is normal because most winners do not want to reveal their account in this forum.
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justdimin
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September 21, 2019, 05:26:51 PM |
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Even then I have not heard form anyone here if they had won a lottery. Few of my friends also play at freebitco and they also did not win any big prize. I wonder if this lottery system is fair ? ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) Recap how many people you know who have won in the standard lottery of your state? I am quite sure it's "none", would you call the States lottery unfair, too? Regarding the freebitco.in lottery: There are millions of players all over the world, chances that you know someone who has won in the lottery personally are extremly low, just do the math. Not just states, that is USA, let me ask this; how many people in freebitcoin (used globally) have ever met a lottery winner? You can literally live anywhere in the world and respond to this question, unfortunately lottery is not something people win that easily, it is won by 1 out of millions of tickets and that means the odds are so little that there is a big chance you will never met with a winner ever. It is just as regular as regular fiat lottery that we have in the world for YEARS now, there is literally a lottery every week in my nation as a nation wide thing and I have never met with any of the winners or ever seen a winner. I have seen some news of lottery winners spending all of their money and becoming poorer than before in the newspapers couple of times but that's it, never face to face.
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hosseinimr93
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September 21, 2019, 08:12:23 PM |
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The time until the next free roll which is shown for me is now 70 minutes. Has the time interval between free rolls increased? Here is the screenshot. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FjlnxBSz.jpg&t=665&c=ylFUB0LB3ux2JA) Edit: Seems that there is only a problem with the time shown. I was able to click the roll button after 60 minutes like before. Here is what is shown now ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FEhFo5in.jpg&t=665&c=kfXqLOBePzf30Q)
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mindrust
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September 21, 2019, 08:15:26 PM |
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The time until the next free roll which is shown for me is now 70 minutes. Has the time interval between free rolls increased? Here is the screenshot. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FjlnxBSz.jpg&t=665&c=ylFUB0LB3ux2JA) Mine is still showing 60 minutes, were you playing on a VPN? I heard if you change your IP's too many times it might block your freerolls but I am not sure if that's the case with you.
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STT
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September 21, 2019, 08:41:12 PM |
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VPN alters your virtual location which might upset the accommodation for your time vs UTC and the counter is probably using that to give the count down. I do have a similar thing sometimes, I dont use VPN but my computer flips between time zones by itself and windows in its glory doesn't correct itself properly despite being set to check automatically I have to be reminding it what is the correct time zone. On my browser it just gives up and sets the timer to all dashes or something I'll screenshot next time but does not advance it an hour.
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hosseinimr93
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September 21, 2019, 10:27:45 PM |
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Mine is still showing 60 minutes, were you playing on a VPN? I heard if you change your IP's too many times it might block your freerolls but I am not sure if that's the case with you.
My free rolls had not been blocked. The time interval shown had changed to 120 minutes. The time had been shown wrong. But the real time interval was 60 minutes. VPN alters your virtual location which might upset the accommodation for your time vs UTC and the counter is probably using that to give the count down. I do have a similar thing sometimes, I dont use VPN but my computer flips between time zones by itself and windows in its glory doesn't correct itself properly despite being set to check automatically I have to be reminding it what is the correct time zone. On my browser it just gives up and sets the timer to all dashes or something I'll screenshot next time but does not advance it an hour.
You are right. There was a problem with time zone.
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BrazilianMiner
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September 21, 2019, 11:08:36 PM |
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The strategy to get money from faucets is not really a big strategy, you can't really make that much money from faucets, even if you go around and get paid from 100 faucets (don't know if there are 100 faucets that works) at most they give you is 2-3 satoshi at this point per try and if you do it hourly that is around 200 satoshi which means 2k daily if you do 10 hours.
Is it doable? Sure, you can at least get your first start in bitcoin world like that and if you work for a whole month like that then you would be able to make some starting money for some trades and all that. However is it profitable? Not really, you are better using that time to do some other work and get paid, there are airdrops and bounties and all that which rewards for actual work you put in.
For most people in third world countries it might be profitable to go and collect faucets every hour. But as you said that strategy is not really profitable to be honest. A solid strategy is to get referrals work for you. But it requires some actual work.
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TheQuin
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September 22, 2019, 12:59:31 AM |
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You are right. There was a problem with time zone.
The same thing can happen when you go in or out of daylight saving time.
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adaseb
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September 22, 2019, 04:33:44 AM |
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VPN alters your virtual location which might upset the accommodation for your time vs UTC and the counter is probably using that to give the count down. I do have a similar thing sometimes, I dont use VPN but my computer flips between time zones by itself and windows in its glory doesn't correct itself properly despite being set to check automatically I have to be reminding it what is the correct time zone. On my browser it just gives up and sets the timer to all dashes or something I'll screenshot next time but does not advance it an hour.
I've had a similiar issue such as this before but it wasn't due to a VPN, instead it was having a dual-bootable computer with Windows and Linux. You might not realise this but if you got a dual-boot system, the timezones will keep changing as your switch back and forth and its not some bug. Basically if you go to Linux and then switch to Windows right after, your timezone will get changed to the amount of hours difference to +GMT. So mine was always like 7 hours off and I didn't realise it. But some gambling sites that do these faucet timeouts they usually have a server side clock and its based on that. Because it would be too easy to cheat any other way since almost anybody can manually roll their clock forward in Windows.
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BTCevo
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September 22, 2019, 07:19:54 AM |
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The win chance shown in lottery section of freebitco website is calculated wrong. The real win chance is bigger than what is shown. Now the win chance shown is equal to [(your tickets/total tickets)*100%]*10. It's wrong. The real win chance is bigger. Because the person who wins the first prize will no longer have the chance to win the second to tenth prize, and all his tickets are removed when next winners are being determined.
Some people like you think lottery is something very easy to win, we are talking about odds that many people don't even bet on dice games, it is literally less than 0.1% chance most of the time, of course you will lose every single time because it is lottery and there are literally millions of tickets every single week, so you do not have a chance to win it 99.9%+ of the time every single week, don't look at it like dice players do where they think after 17 losses it must be a win on 18th because every single bet is a new one and every single lottery is a new one, you will end up losing every single time. A guy with 1 ticket technically has the same chance of winning the big bet as someone who has 1 million tickets, only 1 ticket will win an you do increase the chance by having more tickets but in the end there are so many combined that you are just another ticket holder among many. This is how I see freebitcoin for now, I admit it that they really having huge edge right now but it does not mean you will lose money here. Instead of losing I want to say that they give us benefits to get everything, from the faucet which you can it free. Chance to take part into weekly lottery system which is free too and the last one is their biggest prize currently, that is lambo, which you can get it free. So let me asking you which part does cost you money?
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hosseinimr93
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September 22, 2019, 09:45:52 AM |
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So let me asking you which part does cost you money?
Lottery tickets that are given with free rolls are 100% free. Freebitco has the biggest faucet among all the websites I know. They give the users free lottery tickets too. It's great. But the tickets are given with wagering are not 100% free. Considering the 5% house edge, every ticket costs you 25 Satoshi.
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slaman29
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September 22, 2019, 09:49:43 AM |
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For most people in third world countries it might be profitable to go and collect faucets every hour. But as you said that strategy is not really profitable to be honest. A solid strategy is to get referrals work for you. But it requires some actual work.
Any strategy needs hard work. I would say referrals are great if you have a network and you know how to plug faucets to them (or the lottery or the lambo) but faucet collecting itself is pretty "solid" to be honest, just that you either live in a place where dollars buy you a lot. At today's rate even if you collect 20 times a day it's only 12 cents (and that's me at x3 bonus from freeroll).
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mindrust
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September 22, 2019, 10:07:40 AM |
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So let me asking you which part does cost you money?
Lottery tickets that are given with free rolls are 100% free. Freebitco has the biggest faucet among all the websites I know. They give the users free lottery tickets too. It's great. But the tickets are given with wagering are not 100% free. Considering the 5% house edge, every ticket costs you 25 Satoshi. And where is the problem? These tickets are not forced on you. Some people are willingly buy those tickets to increase their chances. If there weren't choices like these the site wouldn't make any money. Lottery round 223 has a winner on the 2nd spot with 37 tickets. 37. Let that sink in for a while. Among all those accounts with 10k-100k and even 40 million (!) tickets, some freebie dude with 37 damn tickets wins the 2nd biggest prize.
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davinchi
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September 22, 2019, 02:52:35 PM |
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When you say you lose the lottery you are forgetting how many tickets could be "purchased" with the free money they are giving, think of a person who does 12 faucet claims a day, how many tickets they will have, I am not entirely sure about the numbers and prices but I am pretty sure it will be over 100+ probably even 200+ so we are talking about giving away 200+ tickets a week to people and they do this to god knows how many people, hence I think anyone that wins any lottery should be thankful they got that much money because I am pretty sure 10%+ of all tickets are given away with free money anyway, that number is probably higher but only thequin/wetsuit could answer to that.
I doubt many people deposit money and purchase tickets with it, that must be very rare.
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hosseinimr93
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September 22, 2019, 08:30:48 PM |
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When you say you lose the lottery you are forgetting how many tickets could be "purchased" with the free money they are giving, think of a person who does 12 faucet claims a day, how many tickets they will have, I am not entirely sure about the numbers and prices but I am pretty sure it will be over 100+ probably even 200+ so we are talking about giving away 200+ tickets a week to people and they do this to god knows how many people, hence I think anyone that wins any lottery should be thankful they got that much money because I am pretty sure 10%+ of all tickets are given away with free money anyway, that number is probably higher but only thequin/wetsuit could answer to that.
I doubt many people deposit money and purchase tickets with it, that must be very rare.
Using the data shown on "Stats" we can calculate number of free tickets that are given for wagering. For calculating the number of free tickets that are given for free rolls we need more data. Here I calculate that for round 225 (Sep. 15-21) Total wagered: 122.587+138+162.847+149.351+153.979+130.172+151.555= 1008 BTC For every 0.00000500 bitcoin wagered, 1 free ticket is given. 1008/0.00000500= 201,600,000 Total number of tickets in round 225 was 244,565,250 So even if we don't consider the tickets that are given with free rolls and only consider the tickets that are given with wagering, 82% of the tickets have been distributed freely. This percentage would be higher if we consider the tickets that are given for free rolls too.
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mindrust
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September 22, 2019, 08:50:46 PM |
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You are forgetting that you can also buy tickets directly. I do it all the time.
1 ticket costs only 1 satoshi. You don't need to wager 500 sats to get 1 ticket. Wagering to get tickets is stupid. Just get 500 tickets instead.
This guy "16629570" is camping on the 3rd spot in the last few rounds... with 40+ million tickets.
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DarkStar_
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September 22, 2019, 09:17:58 PM |
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1 ticket costs only 1 satoshi. You don't need to wager 500 sats to get 1 ticket. Wagering to get tickets is stupid. Just get 500 tickets instead.
If I straight up buy tickets, that's always -EV. Due to the way their sports system is setup, it's possible to get a +EV bet and free tickets. The lottery is extremely -EV if you buy tickets as the pot is much lower than a 1 ticket:1 sat ratio, so I would argue the other side and say that buying tickets is stupid, while wagering and getting tickets as a bonus is the way to go.
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taking a break - expect delayed responses
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hosseinimr93
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September 22, 2019, 10:07:24 PM |
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1 ticket costs only 1 satoshi. You don't need to wager 500 sats to get 1 ticket. Wagering to get tickets is stupid. Just get 500 tickets instead.
If I straight up buy tickets, that's always -EV. Due to the way their sports system is setup, it's possible to get a +EV bet and free tickets. The lottery is extremely -EV if you buy tickets as the pot is much lower than a 1 ticket:1 sat ratio, so I would argue the other side and say that buying tickets is stupid, while wagering and getting tickets as a bonus is the way to go. In order to receive one ticket by wagering, you need to wager 500 Satoshis. As the house edge is 5%, in the long term, it is expected to loss 25 Satoshis for every 500 Satoshis you wager. So, buying the tickets at 1 Satoshi is more efficient especially if you want to have many tickets.
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DarkStar_
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September 22, 2019, 10:14:59 PM |
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1 ticket costs only 1 satoshi. You don't need to wager 500 sats to get 1 ticket. Wagering to get tickets is stupid. Just get 500 tickets instead.
If I straight up buy tickets, that's always -EV. Due to the way their sports system is setup, it's possible to get a +EV bet and free tickets. The lottery is extremely -EV if you buy tickets as the pot is much lower than a 1 ticket:1 sat ratio, so I would argue the other side and say that buying tickets is stupid, while wagering and getting tickets as a bonus is the way to go. In order to receive one ticket by wagering, you need to wager 500 Satoshis. As the house edge is 5%, in the long term, it is expected to loss 25 Satoshis for every 500 Satoshis you wager. So, buying the tickets at 1 Satoshi is more efficient especially if you want to have many tickets. As of right now, the total lottery prize pool is approximately 0.034 BTC total. There are 13578500 tickets in the pool. Each ticket has an RTP of just over 25%, so the effective house edge for directly purchasing a ticket is 75%. As a result, it is incredibly stupid to purchase lottery tickets straight up, and you should only treat them as a nice bonus for wagering (which was the point of my original post). If your sole goal is to have lottery tickets, then yeah, buying them straight up is better. If your goal is to make a profit, buying them straight up is dumb.
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taking a break - expect delayed responses
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mindrust
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September 23, 2019, 05:25:23 AM |
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If you want +EV any move you make other than clicking the free roll button is stupid.
Want profits? Then collect interest and play free rolls only.
Everybody knows gambling isn't about getting +EV. It is about luck. (Well maybe not everyone)
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