GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[mmortal03]

One thing to keep in mind is that if we have a hard fork, and you hold actual bitcoins, you will be able to hold them and ultimately spend them on the most valued chain. (You'll also be able to spend them on the other chain, of course). However, if you hold GBTC where you don't control the actual private keys, it'll be interesting to see what happens to the price of your shares through that time period, and you might not have the flexibility of your value being retained on both sides of the chain. Bitcoin Investment Trust might need to choose one or the other to back the shares, right? Thoughts?

Edit: Keep in mind that Xapo would be managing the actual private keys.

[Bitcoinaire]

"It's Not An ETF" - Industry Expert Warns, Be Wary Of The Skyrocketing Bitcoin Fund

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-06/its-not-etf-industry-expert-warns-be-wary-skyrocketing-bitcoin-fund

[mmortal03]

"It's Not An ETF" - Industry Expert Warns, Be Wary Of The Skyrocketing Bitcoin Fund

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-06/its-not-etf-industry-expert-warns-be-wary-skyrocketing-bitcoin-fund

Here's another one: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/06/02/the-sure-sign-of-a-bitcoin-bubble.aspx?yptr=yahoo

[mmortal03]

And, another one: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-31/bitcoin-exuberance-even-more-dramatic-in-lone-investment-trust

[mmortal03]

They're keepin' 'em coming: http://www.investopedia.com/news/why-buy-expensive-bitcoin-etf-instead-actual-bitcoin/

[mmortal03]

"I would emphasize that the Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTCQX:GBTC), which is the only direct way to "invest" in bitcoin, trades for $540. Now, according to Grayscale, this ETF holds 0.09289534 Bitcoins per share. Even at the currently euphoric prices, which can be checked in real time here, Bitcoin goes for $2,845.

As such, each GBTC share has a $264 NAV (Net Asset Value). Now remember, GBTC trades at $540, so it's trading at a 104% premium to the underlying value of the Bitcoins it holds. Put another way, the Bitcoin euphoria is real, and this trades at twice that euphoria. The outcome will be humbling for those holding GBTC."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4079232-bitcoin-amd-deja-vu

The comments section is hilarious.

[mmortal03]

"This bitcoin investment vehicle could be 'a disaster waiting to happen'": http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/08/this-bitcoin-investment-vehicle-could-be-a-disaster-waiting-to-happen.html

[gentlemand]

"This bitcoin investment vehicle could be 'a disaster waiting to happen'": http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/08/this-bitcoin-investment-vehicle-could-be-a-disaster-waiting-to-happen.html

Do they not have a point? It's not exactly liquid and becoming more tenuously related to the Bitcoin price by the day. The premium's gone from near nowt to near double. That's not a signal of a market that works very well.

[notme]

"This bitcoin investment vehicle could be 'a disaster waiting to happen'": http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/08/this-bitcoin-investment-vehicle-could-be-a-disaster-waiting-to-happen.html

Do they not have a point? It's not exactly liquid and becoming more tenuously related to the Bitcoin price by the day. The premium's gone from near nowt to near double. That's not a signal of a market that works very well.

The premium is starting to come down.

Today:
BTCUSD up 5%
GBTC down 8%

[mmortal03]

GBTC is dropping like a rock today.

[mmortal03]

GBTC is dropping like a rock today.

Today has been even better.

[mmortal03]

GBTC is going up while BTC is going down. People are going to get rekt.

[mmortal03]

Looks like GBTC is finally dipping.

[DieJohnny]

Looks like GBTC is finally dipping.

it is the only game in town, I think anything below $400 is a buy as i don't believe Bitcoin will drop below 2k anymore.

[Bitcoinaire]

Looks like GBTC is finally dipping.

it is the only game in town, I think anything below $400 is a buy as i don't believe Bitcoin will drop below 2k anymore.

Exactly my thinking. Once this Aug 1st fork business passes bitcoin should be on solid ground for another rally.

[mmortal03]

Looks like GBTC is finally dipping.

it is the only game in town, I think anything below $400 is a buy as i don't believe Bitcoin will drop below 2k anymore.

Exactly my thinking. Once this Aug 1st fork business passes bitcoin should be on solid ground for another rally.

After watching the following, I'm not so sure of that. Keep in mind that the Bitcoin Investment Trust may have to choose a side of the fork.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTCB5bRGQj0

[DieJohnny]

Looks like GBTC is finally dipping.

it is the only game in town, I think anything below $400 is a buy as i don't believe Bitcoin will drop below 2k anymore.

Exactly my thinking. Once this Aug 1st fork business passes bitcoin should be on solid ground for another rally.

After watching the following, I'm not so sure of that. Keep in mind that the Bitcoin Investment Trust may have to choose a side of the fork.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTCB5bRGQj0

gbtc doesn't have to do anything, they own keys, the keys are what has value period

[mmortal03]

gbtc doesn't have to do anything, they own keys, the keys are what has value period

What matters is what they do with that value and what that means for the price. If Bitcoin forks into two economically viable chains, they will hold keys to coins on both sides of the chain. Will they make that value available to their stock holders or not? Does holding their stock mean that you get the value behind those private keys on both chains, or do they just pocket the value from one of the two chains and only allow their shares to represent coins on one side of the fork?

[mmortal03]

Can the people who are buying the dips back up to $400 please stop doing that?

[mmortal03]

We've got a higher premium on GBTC shares over BTC than we did last week...