GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[Dragonkiller]

Around 50XBT bought per day in the last few days

According to the website any investments made in 2013 get the 1.5% entry fee waived.  I'm surprised we haven't seen more going into the fun in the last week or so.  Maybe everyone who wanted in already went it??

1.5% isn't a big deal

  you cannot be serious.

Not sure what you mean, but when a market can move more than 20% in a day, I wouldn't be worried about saving 1.5% just to get in before 2014. I would wait for a good opportunity.

1.5% is a big deal when you're talking about $50k, $100k type of investments.  The other thing is, you say a good opportunity.  What's a "good opportunity"?  Are you implying to can time the bitcoin market?  Is it at $750?  $700?  $440?  

and fyi i have invested much more than $100k, and 1.5% isnt a big deal to me in such a market

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[wachtwoord]

Around 50XBT bought per day in the last few days

According to the website any investments made in 2013 get the 1.5% entry fee waived.  I'm surprised we haven't seen more going into the fun in the last week or so.  Maybe everyone who wanted in already went it??

1.5% isn't a big deal

  you cannot be serious.

Not sure what you mean, but when a market can move more than 20% in a day, I wouldn't be worried about saving 1.5% just to get in before 2014. I would wait for a good opportunity.

1.5% is a big deal when you're talking about $50k, $100k type of investments.  The other thing is, you say a good opportunity.  What's a "good opportunity"?  Are you implying to can time the bitcoin market?  Is it at $750?  $700?  $440?  

and fyi i have invested much more than $100k, and 1.5% isnt a big deal to me in such a market

Then you are ignorant for throwing free margin.

And about the investment. Let's just say you're far from the only one. It's not like a $100k investment is a huge amount or anything 

[Dragonkiller]

Around 50XBT bought per day in the last few days

According to the website any investments made in 2013 get the 1.5% entry fee waived.  I'm surprised we haven't seen more going into the fun in the last week or so.  Maybe everyone who wanted in already went it??

1.5% isn't a big deal

  you cannot be serious.

Not sure what you mean, but when a market can move more than 20% in a day, I wouldn't be worried about saving 1.5% just to get in before 2014. I would wait for a good opportunity.

1.5% is a big deal when you're talking about $50k, $100k type of investments.  The other thing is, you say a good opportunity.  What's a "good opportunity"?  Are you implying to can time the bitcoin market?  Is it at $750?  $700?  $440?  

and fyi i have invested much more than $100k, and 1.5% isnt a big deal to me in such a market

Then you are ignorant for throwing free margin.

And about the investment. Let's just say you're far from the only one. It's not like a $100k investment is a huge amount or anything 

okay... good luck with your bitcoin consultancy.

[jl2012]

The maths is simple. If one believes the expected value of the price in January is lower than 98.5% of the current price, the rational choice is not to invest now.

[skivrmt]

Around 50XBT bought per day in the last few days

According to the website any investments made in 2013 get the 1.5% entry fee waived.  I'm surprised we haven't seen more going into the fun in the last week or so.  Maybe everyone who wanted in already went it??

1.5% isn't a big deal

  you cannot be serious.

Not sure what you mean, but when a market can move more than 20% in a day, I wouldn't be worried about saving 1.5% just to get in before 2014. I would wait for a good opportunity.

1.5% is a big deal when you're talking about $50k, $100k type of investments.  The other thing is, you say a good opportunity.  What's a "good opportunity"?  Are you implying to can time the bitcoin market?  Is it at $750?  $700?  $440?  

and fyi i have invested much more than $100k, and 1.5% isnt a big deal to me in such a market

Ok, I'll give you that 1.5% isn't that big considering that XBT will move more than that in a given hour, let alone a given day.  But if you were an investor, and thinking of buying into the trust, why not invest when you can own 2 extra Bitcoins (if investing $100k) now vs in January?  Especially if you think long term Bitcoins will rise in value to a large amount in the future?  Assuming of course you think $710 is a good starting point.

I think we both have agreed to mostly disagree but yet agree in a weird roundabout way.  I get your point.  It's all good.

[Dragonkiller]

The maths is simple. If one believes the expected value of the price in January is lower than 98.5% of the current price, the rational choice is not to invest now.

thank you. that is all

[Dragonkiller]

Around 50XBT bought per day in the last few days

According to the website any investments made in 2013 get the 1.5% entry fee waived.  I'm surprised we haven't seen more going into the fun in the last week or so.  Maybe everyone who wanted in already went it??

1.5% isn't a big deal

  you cannot be serious.

Not sure what you mean, but when a market can move more than 20% in a day, I wouldn't be worried about saving 1.5% just to get in before 2014. I would wait for a good opportunity.

1.5% is a big deal when you're talking about $50k, $100k type of investments.  The other thing is, you say a good opportunity.  What's a "good opportunity"?  Are you implying to can time the bitcoin market?  Is it at $750?  $700?  $440?  

and fyi i have invested much more than $100k, and 1.5% isnt a big deal to me in such a market

Ok, I'll give you that 1.5% isn't that big considering that XBT will move more than that in a given hour, let alone a given day.  But if you were an investor, and thinking of buying into the trust, why not invest when you can own 2 extra Bitcoins (if investing $100k) now vs in January?  Especially if you think long term Bitcoins will rise in value to a large amount in the future?  Assuming of course you think $710 is a good starting point.

I think we both have agreed to mostly disagree but yet agree in a weird roundabout way.  I get your point.  It's all good.

i'm just saying a 1.5% discount is not enough of an incentive to make me jump in in a hurry. if i had definitely made up my mind about investing and thought the price would go to the moon in january, sure i would take an extra 1.5% but i think if you are rational and take a look at the past data (i haven't done this, and of course past data is no indication blah blah...) you will see that there will almost certainly be an opportunity to buy in 2014 at a >1.5% discount to the value on 31 december 2013, so it is no big deal.

[skivrmt]

i'm just saying a 1.5% discount is not enough of an incentive to make me jump in in a hurry. if i had definitely made up my mind about investing and thought the price would go to the moon in january, sure i would take an extra 1.5% but i think if you are rational and take a look at the past data (i haven't done this, and of course past data is no indication blah blah...) you will see that there will almost certainly be an opportunity to buy in 2014 at a >1.5% discount to the value on 31 december 2013, so it is no big deal.

Ok, I can agree with you then regarding the 1.5%.  Just based on the resistance and support levels, which the resistance level was basically $700 on the way back up and we broke through that.  Now the support level is around $700 actually (not exactly but we'll go with it).  So we're approaching that level on Bitstamp.  Does it hit and rebound again or break through?  Based on your thinking you are thinking we're dropping more in Jan.  If you think so then 1.5% doesn't matter! 

But as you said, who really knows.  Anyone's best guess.  Just hope my guess is better than the rest...

[BitChick]

It might not be a "big deal" but it looks like Second Market is going to still reduce fees for the first quarter by a 1%.

Front End Fee:   1.5% (Reduced to 0.5% for Q1 2014)

[ThePok]

wont shareholders of this trust crush the marked as soon as they can sell? even if only 5% want to sell, thats 3500 Btc :/ And pretty sure some want to secrue nice winnings

[600watt]

wont shareholders of this trust crush the marked as soon as they can sell? even if only 5% want to sell, thats 3500 Btc :/ And pretty sure some want to secrue nice winnings

mr silbert will take care of this, don´t you think ?

[skivrmt]

wont shareholders of this trust crush the marked as soon as they can sell? even if only 5% want to sell, thats 3500 Btc :/ And pretty sure some want to secrue nice winnings

Who says they want to sell?  Most of the major purchases of this were not when they initially started the trus in September.  Most of the buy came in later Nov and Dec when the price had appreciated. 

3500 BTC wouldn't crush the market anyway.  37k BTC have traded hands on Gox and Stamp (in USD, slightly more if you include other currencies) just in the last 24 hours.  Would it cause a dip?  No doubt.  But the current market could easily sustain it.

[Bugpowder]

It might not be a "big deal" but it looks like Second Market is going to still reduce fees for the first quarter by a 1%.

Front End Fee:   1.5% (Reduced to 0.5% for Q1 2014)

Not bad.  We need Vanguard to open an ETF with 0.05% yearly fee.  Then I'm in.

[Lloydie]

wont shareholders of this trust crush the marked as soon as they can sell? even if only 5% want to sell, thats 3500 Btc :/ And pretty sure some want to secrue nice winnings

Given current user expansion rate of 30 to 40% per month, I don't think many would sell.

Eventually, I think we'll be left with a few very large investment trusts that are open ended, holding most of the bitcoins. When a large sale needs to be done, it will most likely go off market to avoid damaging market valuations.

This is how large holdings of gold work today. Governments sit on most of the gold and they trade off market for very large transactions.

I speculate that the FBI bitcoin stash will form part of the US government's future permanent hoard.

[windjc]

Do people realize that if there were 120 other funds like SecondMarket with the same BTC holdings, there would not be enough bitcoins to go around?

That's why its only going to take a couple of hand fulls of these type of funds to move the price to  5 figures.

[Lloydie]

Do people realize that if there were 120 other funds like SecondMarket with the same BTC holdings, there would not be enough bitcoins to go around?

That's why its only going to take a couple of hand fulls of these type of funds to move the price to  5 figures.

The inexperienced are trading it! Unbelievable in my view.

I speculate bitcoins need to hit some kind of "terminal value" which will then allow early adopters to spend satoshis.

1 million per Btc would do it for me. 

[skivrmt]

Do people realize that if there were 120 other funds like SecondMarket with the same BTC holdings, there would not be enough bitcoins to go around?

That's why its only going to take a couple of hand fulls of these type of funds to move the price to  5 figures.

But there won't be another 120 funds like this fund.  How many pure gold funds or ETF's are there?  I think what we'll see is eventually a handful of trusts like this one, maybe the Winklevoss ETF (if SEC -ever- approves it), and then we'll see Bitcoins being added to many alternative asset mutual funds (of which there are easily 100+).  This is best case scenario.  And my hope.

[Alonzo Ewing]

Thanks to the OP for maintaining this observer.

Where do you get the NAV chart?

[skivrmt]

Thanks to the OP for maintaining this observer.

Where do you get the NAV chart?

http://www.bitcointrust.co/

Nice simplified presentation of Bitcoin and the trust.

[windjc]

Do people realize that if there were 120 other funds like SecondMarket with the same BTC holdings, there would not be enough bitcoins to go around?

That's why its only going to take a couple of hand fulls of these type of funds to move the price to  5 figures.

But there won't be another 120 funds like this fund.  How many pure gold funds or ETF's are there?  I think what we'll see is eventually a handful of trusts like this one, maybe the Winklevoss ETF (if SEC -ever- approves it), and then we'll see Bitcoins being added to many alternative asset mutual funds (of which there are easily 100+).  This is best case scenario.  And my hope.

Except that bitcoin is international. You are just talking about US funds. How about European and Asian funds? What about retirement funds? And the ETF that the Winklevosses are doing should dwarf SecondMarket.