GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[JorgeStolfi]

This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November

What do you mean?  Isn't this just SecondMarket buying?

It is assumed that SMBIT only buys BTC when some client buys their shares (10 shares = 1 BTC).  If that is true, there seems to be a client who buys 2.5 million dollars worth of shares each week.  But we do not know, really.

I don't really understand why we're assuming that it's a single client. Secondmarket just updates the aggregate figures every week or so, as far as I can see; how are we reading anything about number of clients purchasing into that?

We don't know really, we are just guessing, based on the observation that the recent buys are much larger than usual, they come after a period of stagnation, they started with no obvious external cause,  they are almost the same size in USD (but less so in BTC), and the size in USD is a round number (2.5  M$), within the errors of the estimates.

If there were many clients buying shares, why would they all start buying at the same time, considering that the price does not give any clear signs of recovery?  Why would their buys add up to ~2.5 M$ every week, four weeks in a row?

It is of course possible that there are no clients buying shares, and SMBIT just decided to but BTC anyway, using their dollar reserves.

Here is another wild theory: the SEC found that they were doing something wrong, ordered them to suspend selling and liquidating shares, and required a change in their procedures -- that forced them to buy a lot more BTC than they had bought so far.  So they are buying as far as they can, that being 2.5 M$ every week.  (Yeah, it is total fantasy; but since SMBIT is so opaque, they can't complain if people start making wild theories...)

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[inca]

This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November

What do you mean?  Isn't this just SecondMarket buying?

It is assumed that SMBIT only buys BTC when some client buys their shares (10 shares = 1 BTC).  If that is true, there seems to be a client who buys 2.5 million dollars worth of shares each week.  But we do not know, really.

I don't really understand why we're assuming that it's a single client. Secondmarket just updates the aggregate figures every week or so, as far as I can see; how are we reading anything about number of clients purchasing into that?

We don't know really, we are just guessing, based on the observation that the recent buys are much larger than usual, they come after a period of stagnation, they started with no obvious external cause,  they are almost the same size in USD (but less so in BTC), and the size in USD is a round number (2.5  M$), within the errors of the estimates.

If there were many clients buying shares, why would they all start buying at the same time, considering that the price does not give any clear signs of recovery?  Why would their buys add up to ~2.5 M$ every week, four weeks in a row?

It is of course possible that there are no clients buying shares, and SMBIT just decided to but BTC anyway, using their dollar reserves.

Here is another wild theory: the SEC found that they were doing something wrong, ordered them to suspend selling and liquidating shares, and required a change in their procedures -- that forced them to buy a lot more BTC than they had bought so far.  So they are buying as far as they can, that being 2.5 M$ every week.  (Yeah, it is total fantasy; but since SMBIT is so opaque, they can't complain if people start making wild theories...)

Have you heard the words slander and libel Stolfi?

[oda.krell]

Meh. This forum would be empty if opinions and ideas posted here would be held to the highest standards.

Just look at it like that: one day, we'll look back on our time in the forum here and will reminisce about that cranky CS prof who posted among us and entertained us with his crazy theories. And we'll do so while floating on an air mattress in a pool full of diamonds.<sup>(1)




(1)</sup> Obligatory "rich beyond our wildest dreams" addendum to keep the readers happy :D

[inca]

Meh. This forum would be empty if opinions and ideas posted here would be held to the highest standards.

Just look at it like that: one day, we'll look back on our time in the forum here and will reminisce about that cranky CS prof who posted among us and entertained us with his crazy theories. And we'll do so while floating on an air mattress in a pool full of diamonds.<sup>(1)




(1)</sup> Obligatory "rich beyond our wildest dreams" addendum to keep the readers happy

True. I am just a bit cranky today because I am off work with stomach flu. Cramps are not fun. It maybe a secondary case of internet overload syndrome

Edit: yep crazy prof is harmless fun

[JorgeStolfi]

Have you heard the words slander and libel Stolfi?

It was not me who claimed that the SEC has prohibited SMBIT to liquidate (buy back) their client shares, but did not prohibit them to sell more shares.  If that claim were true, then SMBIT would be a Roach Motel type of fund, like MtGOX in its final days.  That claim is much worse for SMBIT's public image than what I fantasized above.  I even questioned the person who posted that claim, and I still cannot quite believe it.  Would you please ask him whether he knows those words?

I insist: SMBIT has the right to keep their procedures and situation secret, but then the public has the right to consider all the possible wrong things that they may be doing.  That is the smart thing to do before entering any business.  The word for it is "prudence".

EDIT: by the way: in the beginning, SMBIT had promised that, by the end of 2014, they would set up an open market where clients could trade SMBIT shares among themselves, presumably even during the initial 6-month lock-in period.  Any word from them about that promise?

[opossum]

This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November

What do you mean?  Isn't this just SecondMarket buying?

It is assumed that SMBIT only buys BTC when some client buys their shares (10 shares = 1 BTC).  If that is true, there seems to be a client who buys 2.5 million dollars worth of shares each week.  But we do not know, really.

I don't really understand why we're assuming that it's a single client. Secondmarket just updates the aggregate figures every week or so, as far as I can see; how are we reading anything about number of clients purchasing into that?

It is also not total buying, it is net buying as I would find it highly probable that some people are selling their shares for various reasons. So if clients sell a total of 1 million dollars worth of shares and clients buy a total of 3.5 million dollars worth of shares then the net change would be 2.5 million dollars

[NotLambchop]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-30261976

bullish?

[gog1]

How can that be bullish?

[cr1776]

How can that be bullish?

How can what be bullish?  The $2.5 million a week in new buys over the last month?

[nakaone]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-30261976

bullish?

wasn't hsbc the biggest money launderer in the world? - I remember some stuff with iran as well as with gaddafi and drug cartels...

[NotLambchop]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-30261976

bullish?

wasn't hsbc the biggest money launderer in the world? - I remember some stuff with iran as well as with gaddafi and drug cartels...

Probably.  And even these terrorist money launderers don't want to deal with a Bitcoin biz
Anyhow, irrelevant.  The question still stands:

Bullish?

[oda.krell]

BTC worth 10M$ bought last month by Secondmarket.

Bullish?

Glad to see you're finally coming around.

Yes, agreed. Very bullish. Thanks for putting it in such a concise way.

[NotLambchop]

^

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-30261976

bullish?

Lrn 2 quote pl0x.

[brg444]

BTC worth 10M$ bought last month by Secondmarket.

Bullish?

Glad to see you're finally coming around.

Yes, agreed. Very bullish. Thanks for putting it in such a concise way.

 

[N12]

BTC worth 10M$ bought last month by Secondmarket.

Bullish?

Glad to see you're finally coming around.

Yes, agreed. Very bullish. Thanks for putting it in such a concise way.

[Wary]

Next 6KBTC is due. Where they are?

[coinableS]

Next 6KBTC is due. Where they are?

Putting it towards the auction instead on Thursday?

[Wary]

Next 6KBTC is due. Where they are?

Putting it towards the auction instead on Thursday?

Good guess.

[gotmilk_]

Just wait for the jl2012 or others... Would be great if we could get an update of Actual Holding 

[jl2012]

No big move.update later